The market has peaked

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by S``

Did you know what he just listed???

Prices are crashing so hard that he is selling a 7k Laureato in Oct 2021, at 12% over list of 13.4k... wow that TPG shill sure crashed the market...

Wow another crash incoming... A DJ41 that used to sit in the display in 2018. Wow... Selling for over 50% of list price... What a crash!!!

Sure these watches are off the W&W2022 highs, but come on... They are still selling way above list... From the very source you quoted.

Just like the CRM video, your input leaves out details that matters... The Math!

Please, not again. All I did was mention what he stated. No one said crash. Seems you have an agenda.

[47Fountain]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

bound to happen, with the impending recession and the return of real interest. right now the dealers are slowly but surely unleveraging themselves, I still don't think the new lower prices are any sales to actual end users, but rather intra-dealer liquidation, so I expect the current slide to continue for quite some time

I definitely agree. There is an ongoing "correction" in the market. Every business has a correction. You cannot have uncontrollable growth without repercussions. Every so often, there is a "forest fire" so the new growth can begin.

[S``]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Please, not again. All I did was mention what he stated. No one said crash. Seems you have an agenda.

Originally Posted by rolex16

Market manipulation, hoarding, and price gouging also affect prices and being able to buy at msrp. Consumers have rights to protect them from these unfair practices.

You do realize the Federico you quoted was saying at 7:09 - prices are nuts right now (implied still way too high? His prices are hence high as well??)

At 7:06 prices to come on down further.

At 7:12 - disagree with me all you want (sounds like you much?)

Here's an illustration of what he gave... Things selling for 30k, are now not selling at 26k. Rolexpure gave an illustration of a BLRO in his dealer chat that gets closed at around 25k last week. That's a 17% drop. If the tone of his video is perceived, going lower means 30-40% lower, and that would be considered a crash... If a move of 20% lower is considered a "bear" , a move that cuts something for more than 1/3 is a crash. Again Math, something you seem to not enjoy quoting for a matter of perspective

[jaydav2306]

Any correction to prices will be down to retail sales slowing and inflation rising, supply not meeting demand still exists but I think prices will flatten out a bit.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by S``

You do realize the Federico you quoted was saying at 7:09 - prices are nuts right now (implied still way too high? His prices are hence high as well??)

At 7:06 prices to come on down further.

At 7:12 - disagree with me all you want (sounds like you much?)

Here's an illustration of what he gave... Things selling for 30k, are now not selling at 26k. Rolexpure gave an illustration of a BLRO in his dealer chat that gets closed at around 25k last week. That's a 17% drop. If the tone of his video is perceived, going lower means 30-40% lower, and that would be considered a crash... If a move of 20% lower is considered a "bear" , a move that cuts something for more than 1/3 is a crash. Again Math, something you seem to not enjoy quoting for a matter of perspective

So you agree prices are dropping. What is your argument exactly? The only person using terms like bear and crash is you.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by amh

Some prices are dropping, eg. Daytona and TT CHNR.

Others still rising, eg. all GMT BLNR models. New 'Batman' on DavidSW for ~$26k. Won't be shocked if it's at 30k by summer.

New Batman on OC watchguy page for 23,595 with jubilee and 22,995 with oyster. Oyster is 2021 card tho. Jubilee 2022.

[mg18]

new video from watchfinder 20 min ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye9Q_m9WOtc

Market is softening a bit, who knows where we are headed though.

[Time Out]

I think what most people don't realize is a large portion of demand is flippers dumping to grey. Now that greys are no longer accepting or netting big gains over MSRP to the flippers, supply will catch up pretty quickly. Not everyone on a list for a hot Rolex is a WIS. Take the flippers out and magically the supply balances.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Time Out

I think what most people don't realize is a large portion of demand is flippers dumping to grey. Now that greys are no longer accepting or netting big gains over MSRP to the flippers, supply will catch up pretty quickly. Not everyone on a list for a hot Rolex is a WIS. Take the flippers out and magically the supply balances.

All of a sudden every DJ is going to be available again.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

All of a sudden every DJ is going to be available again.

I bought my wives DJ41 it was in perpetuity to my BLNR. Now you have to buy a bunch of jewelry to get a DJ. You know the landing to this is going to be ugly.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by mg18

new video from watchfinder 20 min ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye9Q_m9WOtc

Market is softening a bit, who knows where we are headed though.

Wow,the " crashed" price Nautilus makes it a bargain now ..

[mg18]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Wow,the " crashed" price Nautilus makes it a bargain now ..

At the very least, it looks like it could have peaked, but who knows. Any dip is a good start!

[cbalster]

Prices are higher since last year for the watches I own. That's a pretty good outcome compared to my real portfolio where I am actually trying to make money.

[chaokuay]

I don't believe we have peaked; perhaps a correction.

China's still locked down and the news is only getting worse...

[JRell]

It’s been a great run!

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by rolex16

New Batman on OC watchguy page for 23,595 with jubilee and 22,995 with oyster. Oyster is 2021 card tho. Jubilee 2022.

Its far lower now.


I


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[Wahlberg]

People are pulling out because the value isn't there for them anymore lol. Good riddance.

[ExplorerI]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Its far lower now.


I


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not sure this one’s indicative of current pricing. Oddly low and sold immediately.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

Not sure this one’s indicative of current pricing. Oddly low and sold immediately.

Indicative or not but in that fb group thats what its selling for


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[rolex16]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

Not sure this one’s indicative of current pricing. Oddly low and sold immediately.

Might be wholesale between dealers?

[cbalster]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Its far lower now.


I


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20.5 plus an insured shipping label for a watch and warranty card, vs 23k shipped/insured from Patrick that comes full set. I'd go with ocwatchguy every time. His reputation built over years as a trusted seller, brick and mortar location, and the fact that he handles shipping and insurance, as well as the fact that he will provide the boxes, card, leather wallet holder, manuals, etc is well worth the $2.5k to be honest. Handling insured shipping labels for the average Joe is not straightforward, and a guy like Patrick stands by his merchandise. Nothing against the seller on facebook, but you're paying a little more for higher level of trust and service and more of a concierge experience.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by cbalster

20.5 plus an insured shipping label for a watch and warranty card, vs 23k shipped/insured from Patrick that comes full set. I'd go with ocwatchguy every time. His reputation built over years as a trusted seller, brick and mortar location, and the fact that he handles shipping and insurance, as well as the fact that he will provide the boxes, card, leather wallet holder, manuals, etc is well worth the $2.5k to be honest. Handling insured shipping labels for the average Joe is not straightforward, and a guy like Patrick stands by his merchandise. Nothing against the seller on facebook, but you're paying a little more for higher level of trust and service and more of a concierge experience.

Do you think they play around there scamming people? Besides you can simply add 200-300 for the box. $80 for shipping. Still ahead.

And oh by the way, your 2 trusted seller here are member there


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[Epanerai12]

Market surely softening. Why do i say this? Because coincidentally I was offered a DJ 41 in SS from two different ADs today out of nowhere. And I never asked for a DJ from either AD to begin with. I respectfully declined both offers

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Might be wholesale between dealers?

you can go there and buy it yourself as a regular man. dont need to be a dealer

[whiskyrolex]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Market surely softening. Why do i say this? Because coincidentally I was offered a DJ 41 in SS from two different ADs today out of nowhere. And I never asked for a DJ from either AD to begin with. I respectfully declined both offers

I was offered a steel DJ41 today too, but sadly not an ideal configuration for me.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Market surely softening. Why do i say this? Because coincidentally I was offered a DJ 41 in SS from two different ADs today out of nowhere. And I never asked for a DJ from either AD to begin with. I respectfully declined both offers

Nice. Looks like we are falling back to about 14 months ago availability wise. My AD had DJ's, YMII and CHNR GMT's in the case ready to be bought.

[rolex16]

My bet is we are about to find out where all the watches have been hiding these past few years…I also think the AD logjam will break within 6 months. It is already starting. More and more will pass when they get the call.

[Gab27]

So, in sum:

Some feel prices are going to flatline. Others feel prices will decrease slightly. Others feel they have stabilized. Others feel they will increase slightly. And yet others feel they are going to the moon.

[Gab27]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Nice. Looks like we are falling back to about 14 months ago availability wise. My AD had DJ's, YMII and CHNR GMT's in the case ready to be bought.

Don't tell me that. I really like the CHNR and if I saw one in my AD's case I might find myself having some explaining to do to my other half...

[IR201]

Originally Posted by Gab27

So, in sum:

Some feel prices are going to flatline. Others feel prices will decrease slightly. Others feel they have stabilized. Others feel they will increase slightly. And yet others feel they are going to the moon.

And at various points in time they’ll all be right and say I told you so!


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