5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

I’m not a member of any golf/yacht/country club and wouldn’t presume to comment about who or what is “poor”. I also wouldn’t want step on anyone’s aspirations. I myself want lots and would certainly be considered poor by many.

All I can tell you is that in my opinion the 5711 was NOT always a show off watch and there was plenty around before to show off ‘bigger’ and to many more people.
And the second thing is I don’t want to be associated with many of the “bro’s” wearing them now.

We appear to think along the same lines and I think if we met we'd probably be on the same page, but I think we're not who the 5711 was originally aimed at. My personal favourite watch is the 5712g because unless you know watches then it flies under the radar because it looks like a stainless steel watch on a leather strap. It definitely doesn't shout out like a sports Rolex.

But the 5711 was/is a stainless steel watch that was more expensive than a lot of gold watches and it was a massive statement to show how much wealth you had if you could afford to splash that on a SS watch.

If you wore it and no one noticed it's because you didn't wear it in a place where it was supposed to get noticed. Five years ago a Nautilus would be immediately noticed at the yacht club, when most London street villains were only interested in Rolex watches and wouldn't know a 5711 if you threw one at them.

The watch didn't change, only the people that covet them.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I have a 5711 blue, and don't see the point of having another one. I'm ecstatic about the discontinuation though, which is why I don't really understand (from an owner perspective) your emphatic answer which I quoted back to you. To be honest I still do not understand after your replies but that's fine.

Here is a pic of my 5711 on the same day I bought it in 2017 after a 2-year wait. I love it and it still is my favourite watch.

Anyway thanks for taking your time to reply to my curiosity.

Attachment 1212076

My pleasure. And thank you for your courteous reply (which, others in this forum and thread, have been failed to be, recently).

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by David001

We appear to think along the same lines and I think if we met we'd probably be on the same page, but I think we're not who the 5711 was originally aimed at. My personal favourite watch is the 5712g because unless you know watches then it flies under the radar because it looks like a stainless steel watch on a leather strap. It definitely doesn't shout out like a sports Rolex.

But the 5711 was/is a stainless steel watch that was more expensive than a lot of gold watches and it was a massive statement to show how much wealth you had if you could afford to splash that on a SS watch.

If you wore it and no one noticed it's because you didn't wear it in a place where it was supposed to get noticed. Five years ago a Nautilus would be immediately noticed at the yacht club, when most London street villains were only interested in Rolex watches and wouldn't know a 5711 if you threw one at them.

The watch didn't change, only the people that covet them.

Interesting point of view...Fair enough - I think maybe we are *mostly* in agreement.
London Street Villains is a great phrase! I mentioned this in the UK Watch Insurance thread that these guys are a genuine concern if you're now wearing anything nice on a night out in the city given that our current disastrous mayor has let one of the worlds great cities go to the dogs....

[bonsai-man]

I am delighted about the discontinuation as I might even get £25,000 or break even if I ever sell my new 5711, especially if I keep it unworn.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

Interesting point of view...Fair enough - I think maybe we are *mostly* in agreement.
London Street Villains is a great phrase! I mentioned this in the UK Watch Insurance thread that these guys are a genuine concern if you're now wearing anything nice on a night out in the city given that our current disastrous mayor has let one of the worlds great cities go to the dogs....

Indeed, although I don't really know London these days. Years ago my office used to be in London and if I had spare time I'd often walk from the river all the way up to Camden Lock and back, in summer wearing shirt sleeves and a Rolex, I never really gave a thought to mugging, but now I gather it's not advised.

On the subject of your 5711, I'd hang onto it.
Back a couple of decades ago when copy two-tone Rolex watches were everywhere it was a style disaster to be seen in one, every hoodlum in a tracksuit had one on, but eventually that fashion died off and now I think two tone is quite acceptable, it's SS that's the disaster, but it won't last forever.

[AK797]

As I've said before as to why this bubble has kept going for so long, longer than the South Sea or Tulips or Dotcoms, it is because the watch market is not free and not liquid, it is essentially an oligopoly with no regulation, and has both high barriers to entry in the £5-50K luxury space, and high new watch brand barriers to entry, thus there is no real competition for the existing players who dominate the market, and while Social Media continues to dominate everyone's life, this will always provide a buttress to falling demand should economies start to really fall.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by David001

Indeed, although I don't really know London these days. Years ago my office used to be in London and if I had spare time I'd often walk from the river all the way up to Camden Lock and back, in summer wearing shirt sleeves and a Rolex, I never really gave a thought to mugging, but now I gather it's not advised.

On the subject of your 5711, I'd hang onto it.
Back a couple of decades ago when copy two-tone Rolex watches were everywhere it was a style disaster to be seen in one, every hoodlum in a tracksuit had one on, but eventually that fashion died off and now I think two tone is quite acceptable, it's SS that's the disaster, but it won't last forever.

It got so bad a few years ago that there was a big ugly sign on the Piccadilly right by Bond St that warned of muggers, esp those on mopeds. Thankfully the police changed their pursuit policy to tackle that, but the visibility of watches and their value are now more on the public radar and one needs to take extra precaution now.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

Wow.
That 5167 bid tells you a lot about offer and REALITY. Wow.

Those were the BEST prices from 5 different UK dealers, for "cash sale", I think I would get more for trade in but I only really buy new. The 5167 offer was a shocker, especially as she took my watch round the shop to show her staff telling them the "current demand" and how hard it was to get at retail.

I have to make a correction to my previous post #225. I paid £5,150 (retail) for the Sub in 2011, so unworn with new service I only lost around 45% in 10 years.

[David001]

Originally Posted by AK797

As I've said before as to why this bubble has kept going for so long, longer than the South Sea or Tulips or Dotcoms, it is because the watch market is not free and not liquid, it is essentially an oligopoly with no regulation, and has both high barriers to entry in the £5-50K luxury space, and high new watch brand barriers to entry, thus there is no real competition for the existing players who dominate the market...

I agree, that is fact.
But it's not necessarily a bad thing.

An oligopoly that keeps standards and a price point has it's upsides, it keeps things from a race to the bottom and sliding off a cliff.

Look at some of the big entities that have failed and apply Porters Five Forces and there is the answer as to why. It's all very well chasing a free market model and dashing any anti-competition strategy, but then everyone and his dog steps in, pushes margins to zero and the whole thing slides off a cliff.

Customers demand more of what they had before and they want it cheaper than it was before, without barriers to entry lots of people step in to fulfil that demand, then sooner or later everyone is offering more for less and boom.

The biggest risk to the watch market is the global economy tanking, grey dealers offloading stock at discount to liquify their assets and everyone else getting dragged into the race to sell and put some money back into the bank.
But I just can't see it without a catalyst that currently isn't on my radar - although to be fair I was one of the 99.9% that didn't see a crash coming in 2008/9.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I have a 5711 blue, and don't see the point of having another one. I'm ecstatic about the discontinuation though, which is why I don't really understand (from an owner perspective) your emphatic answer which I quoted back to you. To be honest I still do not understand after your replies but that's fine.

Here is a pic of my 5711 on the same day I bought it in 2017 after a 2-year wait. I love it and it still is my favourite watch.

Anyway thanks for taking your time to reply to my curiosity.

Attachment 1212076

And, of course, you got it for 20% under MSRP.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by David001

I agree, that is fact.
But it's not necessarily a bad thing.

An oligopoly that keeps standards and a price point has it's upsides, it keeps things from a race to the bottom and sliding off a cliff.

Look at some of the big entities that have failed and apply Porters Five Forces and there is the answer as to why. It's all very well chasing a free market model and dashing any anti-competition strategy, but then everyone and his dog steps in, pushes margins to zero and the whole thing slides off a cliff.

Customers demand more of what they had before and they want it cheaper than it was before, without barriers to entry lots of people step in to fulfil that demand, then sooner or later everyone is offering more for less and boom.

The biggest risk to the watch market is the global economy tanking, grey dealers offloading stock at discount to liquify their assets and everyone else getting dragged into the race to sell and put some money back into the bank.
But I just can't see it without a catalyst that currently isn't on my radar - although to be fair I was one of the 99.9% that didn't see a crash coming in 2008/9.

I agree with all of this, well said.

I have been expecting a price correction but if a global pandemic/global shut down only registered a blip I am not sure what it will take. Ignore me though, I am still waiting for the UK housing market "bubble" which started in 2001 to burst. For the last 20 years I have said the UK house market is “hyped up”, “over-valued” and due a "huge correction", but for 20 years I have been wrong.

I do feel lucky to have got in at the start of both the house and watch bubbles though.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

I answered this question emphatically a few posts further up this page. Are you making me an offer?

He doesn't need to!

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by cascavel

And, of course, you got it for 20% under MSRP.

Indeed. The MSRP in 2017 was around 27% less than 2021 MSRP.

[David001]

Originally Posted by bonsai-man

I am still waiting for the UK housing market "bubble" which started in 2001 to burst. For the last 20 years I have said the UK house market is “hyped up”, “over-valued” and due a "huge correction", but for 20 years I have been wrong.

That's not a bad comparison because in many places houses went crazy and trebled in a few years, then sat where they were and didn't go up much for a decade but they never really went down again.
My house is worth three times what I paid in the late 90's, but it hasn't really gone up much in ten years, although they are climbing a bit now but a lot slower.

I expect the watch bubble to peak, it can't keep accelerating at the same rate, but I'd be surprised to see it drop by any significant amount, there might be one or two fashion changes but overall it'll just stop accelerating and the curve will level off.

I'm only passing the time of day discussing it though, I can afford to lose what I spent on watches and if they do crash and I end up with watches that I like but can't sell for what I paid then it won't be the end of the world. If people have overextended themselves on luxury goods and they crash then it's their own fault.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by David001

I agree, that is fact.
But it's not necessarily a bad thing.

An oligopoly that keeps standards and a price point has it's upsides, it keeps things from a race to the bottom and sliding off a cliff.

Look at some of the big entities that have failed and apply Porters Five Forces and there is the answer as to why. It's all very well chasing a free market model and dashing any anti-competition strategy, but then everyone and his dog steps in, pushes margins to zero and the whole thing slides off a cliff.

Customers demand more of what they had before and they want it cheaper than it was before, without barriers to entry lots of people step in to fulfil that demand, then sooner or later everyone is offering more for less and boom.

The biggest risk to the watch market is the global economy tanking, grey dealers offloading stock at discount to liquify their assets and everyone else getting dragged into the race to sell and put some money back into the bank.
But I just can't see it without a catalyst that currently isn't on my radar - although to be fair I was one of the 99.9% that didn't see a crash coming in 2008/9.

If anybody can predict a bear market just before it happens, then there would be no bear market since the cause of that would have been rectified and prevented before it even happening. Bull market makes everyone appear like a genius, just like the current watch situation, whether it’s the 5711, 15202, Daytona etc. 3 years ago, if someone bought the Daytona at $18000 today it is considered a smart buy because it’s retailing at $30000. Same if someone bought a 5711 for $45000 a few years back.

Eventually it’s gonna come back and bite us in return and we will all be wondering what we were smoking back then.

[David001]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Eventually it’s gonna come back and bite us in return and we will all be wondering what we were smoking back then.

Only if you bought "investments".

I just bought watches that I like and I never really considered what they might be worth in the future until very recently with all this speculation. It's mildly exciting to discuss, but I never have and still wouldn't buy a watch I don't absolutely love because of a chance it might appreciate in value.

If they go up I'll be delighted because you never know when you might need to cash in, but if they go down I haven't lost anything because I didn't buy them to sell.

[liu_watch]

Originally Posted by David001

Only if you bought "investments".

I just bought watches that I like and I never really considered what they might be worth in the future until very recently with all this speculation. It's mildly exciting to discuss, but I never have and still wouldn't buy a watch I don't absolutely love because of a chance it might appreciate in value.

If they go up I'll be delighted because you never know when you might need to cash in, but if they go down I haven't lost anything because I didn't buy them to sell.

Exactly my sentiments. We have to buy watches we love, irrespective of their price appreciation or depreciation.

Turn the clock back a few years, I still wouldn’t buy the 5711 because it remains a ugly watch to my eyes. If I wanted to increase wealth, I would’ve take the value of a 5711 and invested it in the equity market. Over time, the invested asset will likely be worth more than the market value of the watch. It’s hard for me to understand why some people buy watches just because they think it will increase in market price. Those watches are the 0.1%. For every watch that appreciates in price, 999 others lose value. I even feel more confident picking a good IPO than predicting which watch reference will appreciate like a 5711. Why bother then...?

The moment we buy watches based on their potential price appreciation, we lose, as watch hobbyists, because we exchange the opportunity to have a watch we love for a negative expected return.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by liu_watch

Exactly my sentiments. We have to buy watches we love, irrespective of their price appreciation or depreciation.

Turn the clock back a few years, I still wouldn’t buy the 5711 because it remains a ugly watch to my eyes. If I wanted to increase wealth, I would’ve take the value of a 5711 and invested it in the equity market. Over time, the invested asset will likely be worth more than the market value of the watch. It’s hard for me to understand why some people buy watches just because they think it will increase in market price. Those watches are the 0.1%. For every watch that appreciates in price, 999 others lose value. I even feel more confident picking a good IPO than predicting which watch reference will appreciate like a 5711. Why bother then...?

The moment we buy watches based on their potential price appreciation, we lose, as watch hobbyists, because we exchange the opportunity to have a watch we love for a negative expected return.

A negative expected return was what you had with ALL watches 5-10 years ago. I never broke even on any watch that I bought at MSRP or at auction between 2005 and 2017. Watch collecting was much dicier then because you had no hope and had built no equity beyond what you paid in any watch you owned, well, the ones I owned, anyway. I suppose that collectors of vintage manual wind Daytona's and some early Subs were doing OK.
In 2017 and earlier, even if you bought a 5711 at MSRP you had scant chance of selling it for what you paid. Life is much better today, for watch collectors.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by David001

We appear to think along the same lines and I think if we met we'd probably be on the same page, but I think we're not who the 5711 was originally aimed at. My personal favourite watch is the 5712g because unless you know watches then it flies under the radar because it looks like a stainless steel watch on a leather strap. It definitely doesn't shout out like a sports Rolex.

But the 5711 was/is a stainless steel watch that was more expensive than a lot of gold watches and it was a massive statement to show how much wealth you had if you could afford to splash that on a SS watch.

If you wore it and no one noticed it's because you didn't wear it in a place where it was supposed to get noticed. Five years ago a Nautilus would be immediately noticed at the yacht club, when most London street villains were only interested in Rolex watches and wouldn't know a 5711 if you threw one at them.

The watch didn't change, only the people that covet them.

You guys really need to get out of London. You should consider moving to the U.S. I lived in NYC for the last 35 years and don't remember hearing of anyone targeted for their wrist watch. I walked around Manhattan with Rolexes, Pateks, Royal Oaks and Journes on my wrist during the summer in T-shirts and no one ever paid any attention to my watch (a bit of a letdown when you think about it).
And if you relocate to the right state you can carry your piece in a holster (open carry) and then most folks avoid you like the plague.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by David001

That's not a bad comparison because in many places houses went crazy and trebled in a few years, then sat where they were and didn't go up much for a decade but they never really went down again.
My house is worth three times what I paid in the late 90's, but it hasn't really gone up much in ten years, although they are climbing a bit now but a lot slower.

That’s strange my house as gone up by over 35% based on current sales in the last 10 years alone, although I am in the south east. I would take a look at Zoopla, they show an estimated value based on sales in your area.

[bonsai-man]

Originally Posted by cascavel

A negative expected return was what you had with ALL watches 5-10 years ago. I never broke even on any watch that I bought at MSRP or at auction between 2005 and 2017. Watch collecting was much dicier then because you had no hope and had built no equity beyond what you paid in any watch you owned, well, the ones I owned, anyway. I suppose that collectors of vintage manual wind Daytona's and some early Subs were doing OK.
In 2017 and earlier, even if you bought a 5711 at MSRP you had scant chance of selling it for what you paid. Life is much better today, for watch collectors.

I think it’s still the same as before 2017, it’s only better today on paper in my experience. I am OK with that as I only spend on watches what I can afford to lose. I was only looking to offload around 10-15 as I have far too many I don’t wear, to get something I would. I will keep them all for now and trade them towards a new Patek when I decided what I want.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I have a 5711 blue, and don't see the point of having another one. I'm ecstatic about the discontinuation though, which is why I don't really understand (from an owner perspective) your emphatic answer which I quoted back to you. To be honest I still do not understand after your replies but that's fine.

Here is a pic of my 5711 on the same day I bought it in 2017 after a 2-year wait. I love it and it still is my favourite watch.

Anyway thanks for taking your time to reply to my curiosity.

Attachment 1212076

Almost as gorgeous as your blue 5726 :)

[mongrelnomoad]

I just want to jump in to defend my city. I own a PP, an AP, a Rolex and a Lange, and I live in London and wear them daily. I often take the tube or cycle, and walk miles through the city, East to West, North to South. I have NEVER felt unsafe or been targeted. I don’t flaunt my wealth or my watches, and I don’t go out of my way to draw attention to myself: in other words, I’m not an idiot.

Stop feeding the stupid clickbait fodder that, over the last five years, has been a broadside in the concerted war being waged against the city and its values. My beloved London has been constantly attacked, slandered and maligned by the bitter, provincial home-county curtain-twitchers and their rabid, risible press.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

I just want to jump in to defend my city. I own a PP, an AP, a Rolex and a Lange, and I live in London and wear them daily. I often take the tube or cycle, and walk miles through the city, East to West, North to South. I have NEVER felt unsafe or been targeted. I don’t flaunt my wealth or my watches, and I don’t go out of my way to draw attention to myself: in other words, I’m not an idiot.

Stop feeding the stupid clickbait fodder that, over the last five years, has been a broadside in the concerted war being waged against the city and its values. My beloved London has been constantly attacked, slandered and maligned by the bitter, provincial home-county curtain-twitchers and their rabid, risible press.

No offense meant by my comment, above, about moving to the U.S. I was responding to the concerns and fears posted by many living in the UK who seem to feel insecure wearing an expensive wrist watch on the streets of London. For all I know it's balderdash and, as I said, having lived in a fairly large city in the U.S I never felt threatened because I was wearing a luxury time piece.
Having said that, I try to stay away from all houses of worship and would be terrified of stepping inside one, especially on a day of worship, I avoid malls, school campuses, theaters, outdoor concerts, indoor concerts, workplaces, post offices and airports no matter what watch I'm wearing.

[theflywrist]

This thread has been a joy to read. From price speculations, to lovers/haters of the 5711 and everything in between.

I personally relate to alot of the gents that rightfully wrote about how understated the 5711 was some years ago, and how aside from how gorgeous the watch is, you would opt to buy / wear it over a SS Sports rolex on many occasions because it would simply not attract much if any attention.

I in fact was torn between the 5711 or a WG Blue submariner (smurf) 6 years ago as my first "serious" watch. The reason why I opted for the 5711, aside from the fact that I did/do find it exceptionally beautiful was because no-one would ever recognize that it was a $24,000 watch.
Yes that has significantly changed today and I am not particularly fond of it, but why does it matter as long as you still love and enjoy the watch? I see so many people being put off by the "poor" people as someone IMO very condescendingly says wanting them, or because the "bros" want it, but why should that stop you from wearing something you truly enjoy?
Only you are the loser if youre more fixated on what the "bros" want and put that over what you really like.

If youre in it for the value, thats great. If the watch no longer sings to you and you can make 3X what you've paid, then thats even better. But to sell something you enjoy because people you think you are superior to now like these watches?

Yeah I think no one loses out but you....

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

I just want to jump in to defend my city. I own a PP, an AP, a Rolex and a Lange, and I live in London and wear them daily. I often take the tube or cycle, and walk miles through the city, East to West, North to South. I have NEVER felt unsafe or been targeted. I don’t flaunt my wealth or my watches, and I don’t go out of my way to draw attention to myself: in other words, I’m not an idiot.

Stop feeding the stupid clickbait fodder that, over the last five years, has been a broadside in the concerted war being waged against the city and its values. My beloved London has been constantly attacked, slandered and maligned by the bitter, provincial home-county curtain-twitchers and their rabid, risible press.

Agree with you, but for a tourist, you have to consciously "not be an idiot". I am not from London and love the beautiful city, always have, but the point is that if you look like a particular tourist, you are at a higher risk.
I have plenty of friends that have been unfortunate to have been mugged in London. This ofcourse is not exclusive to just London, but also many other places. London is up there on the list its tough to deny.

You may be able to work around it as you are home, but for me personally to have to worry if I am being targeted, it's just not worth wearing a watch when I am out and about in London, just like some other cities (Barcelona, Rome, etc).
Today it's not just your watch at stake, but also your life in some cases. It's just not worth it

[GreenLantern]

<offtopic>
So wait, am I reading that I should not wear a watch in London?

Maybe a G Shock?

Or will we have a speculative bubble in G Shocks soon, too?
</offtopic>

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Almost as gorgeous as your blue 5726 :)

Thanks buddy for your kind words

[JasonBetts]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

&lt;offtopic&gt;
So wait, am I reading that I should not wear a watch in London?

Maybe a G Shock?

Or will we have a speculative bubble in G Shocks soon, too?
&lt;/offtopic&gt;

Hang on..... That hurts.

I just bought a $1500 G-shock


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by JasonBetts

Hang on..... That hurts.

I just bought a $1500 G-shock

I hear that. I have some MR-G's that are pricey, too.