Will their be a time when SS sport watches

[martinr]

Lots of people with money to burn and as long as showing off on Instagram is a thing prices will stay high. My opinion is there are so many things that give more bang for the buck than watches. Why chase the same thing everyone else thinks they must have. It’s not that I don’t like watches but really how much pleasure do you get from looking at a thing on your wrist that tells the time. If I paid 37K for an Aquanaut I’d look at it and say I must have lost my mind.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by martinr

Lots of people with money to burn and as long as showing off on Instagram is a thing prices will stay high. My opinion is there are so many things that give more bang for the buck than watches. Why chase the same thing everyone else thinks they must have. It’s not that I don’t like watches but really how much pleasure do you get from looking at a thing on your wrist that tells the time. If I paid 37K for an Aquanaut I’d look at it and say I must have lost my mind.

[GreenLantern]

I'm also still sickened when I see Patek, AP, and Rolex sport watches show up at greys (and even some ADs that carry pre-owned) "brand new, purchased from AD/boutique in 11/2020."

It's even worse when I see an AP like that since I know most US stores are AP boutiques now since AP cut their AD network. Which boutique is leaking this stuff to greys?

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

The main reason why it won't come down is not all the rich people out there.

It's the hoarders out there.

When I see stuff like this: https://www.instagram.com/p/CHtpBvmAIRW/

I don't see how anyone can say supply & demand.

I spoke to a contact at WF middle of last year, they had 116 white dial ceramic Daytona’s in stock.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I spoke to a contact at WF middle of last year, they had 116 white dial ceramic Daytona’s in stock.

Hahahaha.

My goodness.

QED

[Emery]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

You're probably in the wrong place for comments like that.

I have to believe many of the regular posters here are in it for the timepiece itself, not because it's "hot" or it's "selling above MSRP."

But hey, I can only speak for myself, so what do I know.

Time will tell, but I hope you're right.

[Pw92676]

I used to think yes.
But if a pandemic couldn’t dampen the rollercoaster, I don’t know what realistically will.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by martinr

Lots of people with money to burn and as long as showing off on Instagram is a thing prices will stay high. My opinion is there are so many things that give more bang for the buck than watches. Why chase the same thing everyone else thinks they must have. It’s not that I don’t like watches but really how much pleasure do you get from looking at a thing on your wrist that tells the time. If I paid 37K for an Aquanaut I’d look at it and say I must have lost my mind.

i would disagree with this as i’m prepared to do it to get the watch i truly want.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Pw92676

I used to think yes.
But if a pandemic couldn’t dampen the rollercoaster, I don’t know what realistically will.

pretty much

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Pw92676

I used to think yes.
But if a pandemic couldn’t dampen the rollercoaster, I don’t know what realistically will.

Exactly. Any sign of a downturn and the Treasury and the Fed will print a few Trillion more $ and drop it in the laps of the already so wealthy they don't know what to do with it crowd, creating more demand for luxury goods. This formula will continue indefinitely.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by Nikrnic

Yes.. your still on the wait list for a Submariner. Call back in a year...

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Hey wait a second.... I put a deposit down for a Zenith Daytona in 1990... still waiting.
... actually just picked up the Daytona preowned last week after 30 years of desire.


But seriously if the trajectory for the Daytona is any example, I do not expect the SS sports model situation to change.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by martinr

Lots of people with money to burn and as long as showing off on Instagram is a thing prices will stay high. My opinion is there are so many things that give more bang for the buck than watches. Why chase the same thing everyone else thinks they must have. It’s not that I don’t like watches but really how much pleasure do you get from looking at a thing on your wrist that tells the time. If I paid 37K for an Aquanaut I’d look at it and say I must have lost my mind.

Gee, when I look at my Aquanaut, purchased from a reseller, I'm delighted with its history, appearance, wearing comfort, timekeeping and the likelihood that it will retain much of its value. On the contrary, if I purchase a car, I get to watch out for traffic, police and know most of my money has gone down the tube.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by Mr. Miami

i would disagree with this as i’m prepared to do it to get the watch i truly want.

Well it’s your money and if that’s what makes you happy go for it. I paid 18K for my new sealed Aquanaut and after about a year of ownership felt my Hulk was a better watch for half the price. But that was six years ago. I just can’t see paying over msrp for a current production watch, they aren’t rare or hard to find. Maybe the market for them will keep going up and if it isn’t the watch you truly want a year or two later you can sell it for 50K. Or maybe not.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Gee, when I look at my Aquanaut, purchased from a reseller, I'm delighted with its history, appearance, wearing comfort, timekeeping and the likelihood that it will retain much of its value. On the contrary, if I purchase a car, I get to watch out for traffic, police and know most of my money has gone down the tube.

That’s nice. I like driving my 2020 BMW. While wearing this. Which I bought new from my AD for less than msrp.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

It's even worse when I see an AP like that since I know most US stores are AP boutiques now since AP cut their AD network. Which boutique is leaking this stuff to greys?

It absolutely 100% is not just the boutiques. It's the end customers and "collectors" that are feeding most of the stock to the gray market.

And, it definitely isn't just new collectors or small-time collectors that are trying to buy up to the next watch. I speculate it is mostly fueled by the big fish and big spenders at AD's.

I know two collectors that are 100% legit. They love watches and are very passionate about the hobby. They have collections to die for. But don't kid yourself that they aren't selling things they don't really want to dealers. These two collectors I know are getting hot models offered to them EVERY. SINGLE. MONTH.

So, we have to stop assuming it's just rogue AD's fueling this. It isn't.

[martinr]

There’s an AP 15202 for sale on here by a reseller for 58K. New, sealed, etc. How does that happen if it comes from a boutique? My guess is it works like this. The boutique manager sells it to the reseller for over msrp and pockets the difference. And for quite a bit over msrp. Either that or the reseller is making 30K profit which seems unlikely. I could be wrong but what other explanation is there.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by martinr

There’s an AP 15202 for sale on here by a reseller for 58K. New, sealed, etc. How does that happen if it comes from a boutique? My guess is it works like this. The boutique manager sells it to the reseller for over msrp and pockets the difference. And for quite a bit over msrp. Either that or the reseller is making 30K profit which seems unlikely. I could be wrong but what other explanation is there.

I'm guessing it is more of the former, but again I don't think that's the only "source". There are several sources to the gray market, and my view is I don't think it's fair to singularly blame ADs.

Going off on a bit of a tangent, I think there is also a lot of gamesmanship going on here with pricing. There is zero chance a 15202 sells at $58k as that's significantly above the current market price (which I believe is now the upper $40s). It's all come down to appearance and feeding the FOMO phenomenon. We're in a market where a dealer can throw any price out there they want. Soon this Jumbo will be gone and we will think "wow, it sold". But, we have no idea at what price. It's just priming the pump to the next price level.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by martinr

That’s nice. I like driving my 2020 BMW. While wearing this. Which I bought new from my AD for less than msrp.

i gotcha. and yeah that’s an excellent watch as well! just not my number 1. maybe 3 or 4 on my list.

[Mr. Miami]

and also, i believe these SS watches would still be worth a ton of money in a nuclear war wear the world is coming to an end. maybe people barter a 5711 for food.

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I'm guessing it is more of the former, but again I don't think that's the only "source". There are several sources to the gray market, and my view is I don't think it's fair to singularly blame ADs.

Going off on a bit of a tangent, I think there is also a lot of gamesmanship going on here with pricing. There is zero chance a 15202 sells at $58k as that's significantly above the current market price (which I believe is now the upper $40s). It's all come down to appearance and feeding the FOMO phenomenon. We're in a market where a dealer can throw any price out there they want. Soon this Jumbo will be gone and we will think "wow, it sold". But, we have no idea at what price. It's just priming the pump to the next price level.

I'm sure there is a bit of gamesmanship, but it would be silly to think they aren't actually getting these prices or close enough to these prices either. A lot of greys are well respected shops and are here to do business rather than an Instagram post. They work off of % margin (and sure, some will ask for a bit more than that). If their client base aren't prepared to pay, they simply won't advertise it at those amounts.

Most of us won't be able to fathom how much wealth there really is in this world or how many millionaires are minted a day, but the absolute dollar amounts for watches even at the current grey amounts are peanuts compared to other things certain individuals can buy. Times are currently worse than normal with COVID and the last couple years of economy, but where I'm from "investors" are still buying pre-sale condos like ordering stacks of pancakes. Currently 2-3 units a time vs. 5+ a time in 2018. I don't see them having issues spending 20k-30k more a watch if they wanted it.

Those individuals are simply relocating their funds to an another "investment tool"... If you also throw in the hypebeast kids in the mix and suddenly you have both media/social media and legit money in watch game. Pretty hard to keep anything low-profile these days.

Heck... even us talking about it right now on an open forum, can have people influenced one way or the other...

[kneedeep]

Originally Posted by Emery

By the time it comes back down to MSRP, you won't want it anymore.

So true. By then the Nautilus and Aquanaut fads will have passed in favor of the latest and greatest hyped phenoms.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by kneedeep

So true. By then the Nautilus and Aquanaut fads will have passed in favor of the latest and greatest hyped phenoms.

guess time will tell if that is true.

[Pateks]

Be honest with yourself. If you walked into an AD and they have any watch you wanted,the stainless steel difficult to get ones, would you really buy it? Or would you look at the price and say are you kidding me 50 grand for a stainless steel watch. I’ll go spend my money on something else. The reason these watches it becomes so desirable is because we can’t get them. I’m with Martinr, I like watches, I collect watches, but I’m not willing to pay over MSRP or do stupid stuff to get them. If it’s that difficult time to just move onto another hobby

[seavers]

There’s a perfect storm of social media influence, stagnating economies and a growing feeling amongst economists that inflation can be kept in check even whilst creating more money than ever before (which always ends up swilling about in the luxury goods markets).

Even a recession won’t dent the prices as the wealthy will put even more money into commodities rather than the stock market as the return is higher than bonds can offer.

I’m beginning to thing that only an event that threatens to undermine the whole capitalist system will be effective in bringing the world to its senses.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[taylorhall]

I don't think so.

Most ADs make it pretty clear no prospective PP buyer will get a sport watch as their first Patek. Pay to play...

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Pateks

Be honest with yourself. If you walked into an AD and they have any watch you wanted,the stainless steel difficult to get ones, would you really buy it? Or would you look at the price and say are you kidding me 50 grand for a stainless steel watch. I’ll go spend my money on something else. The reason these watches it becomes so desirable is because we can’t get them. I’m with Martinr, I like watches, I collect watches, but I’m not willing to pay over MSRP or do stupid stuff to get them. If it’s that difficult time to just move onto another hobby

yes i would really buy a 5167a. even better if it was discount.

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I spoke to a contact at WF middle of last year, they had 116 white dial ceramic Daytona’s in stock.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=743768

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by martinr

There’s an AP 15202 for sale on here by a reseller for 58K. New, sealed, etc. How does that happen if it comes from a boutique? My guess is it works like this. The boutique manager sells it to the reseller for over msrp and pockets the difference. And for quite a bit over msrp. Either that or the reseller is making 30K profit which seems unlikely. I could be wrong but what other explanation is there.

Quite frankly, I think you are slightly off on both standpoints. As much as you would like to dream that AP boutique manager or most manager "getting in bed" with the reseller; the odds of that is less likely than this situation I would suggest below. (Be it, I'm sure they are a handful of bad apples in the bunch that will capitalize on your theory).

The AD/Boutique has a desirable model like the 15202 coming in. He a) offers it to a new customer if they are willing to bundle a few pieces (perhaps the new Code 11:59) and the new customer agrees and strikes the deal; b) the same deal bundle deal is offered to a grey/reseller under the same conditions; c) they actually offer it to a pre-existing long term customer with no strings attached.

All the a) b) c), result in either: 1) they keep the watch; 2) they have no intentions keeping the watch and either sells it themselves or sells it the grey/reseller. The grey/reseller works on margins +/- the same (as years before)... no different the "good old days" and pays a premium above MSRP on it (be it new "wholesale" value) and marks it up and sells it themselves.

Yes, in one case the reseller obtains the watch straight from the source but likely bought a couple pieces that they will take a hit on in terms of resale value... so they are paying above MSRP. And in the other scenarios various other "end-users" take a cut before it goes to the grey dealer.

I don't think this is a new concept. It's retail business 101 and applies to all industries if you aren't the AD or manufacture. If you resell goods like cars, watches, etc. this concept applies.

It's our hobby but another person's business.

Originally Posted by Pateks

Be honest with yourself. If you walked into an AD and they have any watch you wanted,the stainless steel difficult to get ones, would you really buy it? Or would you look at the price and say are you kidding me 50 grand for a stainless steel watch. I’ll go spend my money on something else. The reason these watches it becomes so desirable is because we can’t get them. I’m with Martinr, I like watches, I collect watches, but I’m not willing to pay over MSRP or do stupid stuff to get them. If it’s that difficult time to just move onto another hobby

Nor would most people. I agree, there is definitely a mob mentality that contributes to this, but it doesn't mean someone wouldn't pay above the norm for something. If the new MSRP is 50K, I sure someone take a look at it and buy it. Wealth is abundant. Most people only look at things through their own lenses only. A $200 timex could be expensive to some but cheap for us (it's a "beater" watch, but it could be a fancy watch for others). Same concept can equally be applied to a person with a lot more wealth and looking at the Patek as being same. Who knows?

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by jamestucker

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=743768

I was surprised the number had increased.

[Andad]

All I can predict is Rolex’s past history.