How’s the prices on the PP dress watches?

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by TJMike

Don't really know.

The Dato Up/Down in RG MSRP is $73k, $94.4K in platinum.

The Dato Perpetual MSRP in WG and RG is $136.6k

Here are all the new or unworn Dato's on Chrono：
https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...US&SETCURR=USD

I see a RG perpetual for under $100k.

I see the Dato Perpetual in the low 80's, high 80's for the newest gray dial version, used retail. So the dealers are buying them in the 70's. This is a 136K retail item. Welcome to the world of dress watches. I would say, buy used complete as new and opt for time and date only auto wind in SS if available. 39mm to 41mm seems to be the current sweet spot.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

That’s like telling her I’m not a virgin. U silly man

With the advances of science there is reconstruction procedures these days. It's called Laser Welding Reconstruction "surgery". You can be a virgin as many times as you want.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=704197

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I see the Dato Perpetual in the low 80's, high 80's for the newest gray dial version, used retail. So the dealers are buying them in the 70's. This is a 136K retail item. Welcome to the world of dress watches. I would say, buy used complete as new and opt for time and date only auto wind in SS if available. 39mm to 41mm seems to be the current sweet spot.

If you're going to take a bath on Lange. Go big or go home. Triple split:

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/a-...it-introducing

Hell you may need to auction it to get your money back but there's a chance you won't lose 50%

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by pam66

someone i know has a 5980A T stamp. he says his current offer is 40K less than what he was offered a month ago.

Do u know what the offer is?

[sensui]

I feel like there are a lot of misconceptions because of the recent price escalations on hot models. Historically Rolex and Patek has always performed better in resale but that doesn't apply to 90%+ of the lineup. Much of the lore imo is falsely perpetuated through vintage auctions making people today think buying a datejust or perpetual calendar is some sort of investment...... At the end of the day it's a luxury product and you buy in expecting losses. No one likes losing money but I think it goes with the territory buying luxury watches (much like exotic cars). If you want to speculate, you should be buying vintage and timing the market.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

With the advances of science there is reconstruction procedures these days. It's called Laser Welding Reconstruction "surgery". You can be a virgin as many times as you want.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=704197

At first I thought u were suggesting I weld my man parts lol

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I don’t mind taking a 50% loss on a lange because that is expected... but I’m not cool taking a 50% loss on a patek because that is not expected. irrespective of how long I hold it. That’s not an important whether I hold it for a day a week or 10 years.

How long I hold it doesn’t change the fact it depreciated 50% quickly.



I’m not equating this to a stock and have never said that at all. Not sure why that keeps being brought up.


Point is if patek dress watches fall as much as lange then it’s no better than a lange.

I don’t expect to make money on my watches dress or sports... but I do not expect PATEK dress watches to fall 50% in less than 1 month of ownership.

bro, you are off track here. in terms of haute horology lange is often better than PP but PP ADs have cultivated that 'buy a PP and never loose money' slogan. it is of course total bs. as we all know on lange you loose instantaneously 35-50%, on PP dress watches a little less. worse, very recently i was offered a package deal involving a nautilus and a 5320G (reasonably appreciated piece here) and i wanted to go for it and sell the 5320G, even at a loss. i_did_not_find_a_buyer at even 20K less than retail for the 5320G. they all told me thanks, not interested. this taught me a lesson about dress watches.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by sensui

I feel like there are a lot of misconceptions because of the recent price escalations on hot models. Historically Rolex and Patek has always performed better in resale but that doesn't apply to 90%+ of the lineup. Much of the lore imo is falsely perpetuated through vintage auctions making people today think buying a datejust or perpetual calendar is some sort of investment...... At the end of the day it's a luxury product and you buy in expecting losses. No one likes losing money but I think it goes with the territory buying luxury watches (much like exotic cars). If you want to speculate, you should be buying vintage and timing the market.

I expect losses... expected -20% vs realized -55%

This is significant below expectations.

[Mr Naultilus]

Originally Posted by pam66

bro, you are off track here. in terms of haute horology lange is often better than PP but PP ADs have cultivated that 'buy a PP and never loose money' slogan. it is of course total bs. as we all know on lange you loose instantaneously 35-50%, on PP dress watches a little less. worse, very recently i was offered a package deal involving a nautilus and a 5320G (reasonably appreciated piece here) and i wanted to go for it and sell the 5320G, even at a loss. i_did_not_find_a_buyer at even 20K less than retail for the 5320G. they all told me thanks, not interested. this taught me a lesson about dress watches.

So if you have done your homework? thoughts om the 5231?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by pam66

bro, you are off track here. in terms of haute horology lange is often better than PP but PP ADs have cultivated that 'buy a PP and never loose money' slogan. it is of course total bs. as we all know on lange you loose instantaneously 35-50%, on PP dress watches a little less. worse, very recently i was offered a package deal involving a nautilus and a 5320G (reasonably appreciated piece here) and i wanted to go for it and sell the 5320G, even at a loss. i_did_not_find_a_buyer at even 20K less than retail for the 5320G. they all told me thanks, not interested. this taught me a lesson about dress watches.

I see the light now. Thanks PAM66

When realized vs expected is that far off its disappointing.

[Josh1000]

I have a true dog the 5930 which I.like very much. Bought in Dec 2016 at retail for £48000 and after VAT was £40300. At today's exchange rates that's about $52000. If I got $45-50k for it (ignore time value of money) I would be ecstatic for the annual cost of ownership.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

So if you have done your homework? thoughts om the 5231?

I’m in the camp that it will optically hold its value on chrono24 but I think if u had to sell it... It be at a loss. And if u sold it, u’d likley be blacklisted by Patek. Personal view.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Josh1000

I have a true dog the 5930 which I.like very much. Bought in Dec 2016 at retail for £48000 and after VAT was £40300. At today's exchange rates that's about $52000. If I got $45-50k for it (ignore time value of money) I would be ecstatic for the annual cost of ownership.

Btw it’s amazing the price difference in the US vs Europe with the VAT. When my friend with the orange crocs came to visit we went and priced out a ton of watches.. most came back with the US 20% more expensive.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

So if you have done your homework? thoughts om the 5231?

too early to tell but i think it will not be super appreciated by the market. the R model will probably do better. nevertheless i will take it, just to have a dress watch. i lost the 5170P to my wife:::)))

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Btw it’s amazing the price difference in the US vs Europe with the VAT. When my friend with the orange crocs came to visit we went and priced out a ton of watches.. most came back with the US 20% more expensive.

that dane guy?????

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I’m in the camp that it will optically hold its value on chrono24 but I think if u had to sell it... It be at a loss. And if u sold it, u’d likley be blacklisted by Patek. Personal view.

selling a dress watch is more work than selling a nautilus. my take is buy it only if you want to keep it. my vienna grey has a 5131R (!!!!))) sitting at 99K euros for more than a year, that is something like 80% above retail - normal for a nautilus. the 5131R is a super hyped watch but very hard to sell at that price.
i am being offered a 5131P (AD, at retail obviously), but i won't take it. special application piece and all that, nevertheless it is kind of a dog IMHO, the 5231 is much nicer. i asked for a 5726A and they offered me the 5131P, think of that. it tells you something about the state of PP dress watches/special application pieces.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by pam66

selling a dress watch is more work than selling a nautilus. my take is buy it only if you want to keep it. my vienna grey has a 5131R (!!!!))) sitting at 99K euros for more than a year, that is something like 80% above retail - normal for a nautilus. the 5131R is a super hyped watch but very hard to sell at that price.
i am being offered a 5131P (AD, at retail obviously), but i won't take it. special application piece and all that, nevertheless it is kind of a dog IMHO, the 5231 is much nicer. i asked for a 5726A and they offered me the 5131P, think of that. it tells you something about the state of PP dress watches/special application pieces.

Wait so u asked for the new 5726 and they reward u with a 5321 and a 5131.
For everyone reading... that’s the secret sauce to get the world time

Lol

[MadSpaniard]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I don’t mind taking a 50% loss on a lange because that is expected... but I’m not cool taking a 50% loss on a patek because that is not expected. irrespective of how long I hold it. That’s not an important whether I hold it for a day a week or 10 years.

How long I hold it doesn’t change the fact it depreciated 50% quickly.

I don’t expect to make money on my watches dress or sports... but I do not expect PATEK dress watches to fall 50% in less than 1 month of ownership.

Well, first of all, they really shouldn't fall 50% in a month of ownership, unless you bought and sold poorly and quickly (i.e. bought at AD list + sales tax, then turned around and sold quickly at internet cash-now dealer). You will take a hit, but probably not a 50% hit, even in the short term on a normal production Patek (that isn't an idiosyncratic or widely less desirable reference, e.g. Gondolos and Ellipses need not apply).

Second, holding period does affect realized depreciation - it most certainly does, in nominal terms at least.

If you hold for a while, Patek will likely raise prices (there have been years when they raised by a lot, actually), thus raising the resale prices of current/recent references along with them. For example, when I bought my 5035R back in the day, list price was 18k (and I paid much less than that at AD), but by the time I sold, list price for the replacement model 5146 had reached 28k and steadily increased after that as well, thus propping up the market value of the older 5035 along with it. Yes, those were the good old days.

But even now, for sake of argument, even the current 5205 (in black or white dials, not the early 2-tone gray dials which are far less desirable) has seen its list price go up nearly 20% over the past 2 years (which saw 2 price hikes on it). So those that bought a 5205R 2 1/2 or 3 years ago with a 10-15% discount at AD and no sales tax (both of which can be readily achieved on "normal" references), are not facing the same depreciation as somebody who bought the exact same watch last month at AD full list price, as both watches in mint condition command rather similar prices in resale value.

Also sometimes, if you hold for a while, you may get lucky and have your reference get discontinued, and if it's a reasonably well-liked reference, that will also help prop up the resale value (thus also lowering your depreciation).

Of course, all this is in nominal dollars, nor real dollars (nor factoring in opportunity cost). That's a different ballgame altogether - that's investing.

Here, I'm only talking about the expected "cost of ownership" for luxury watches, Patek in particular, which are not intended to be financial instruments and shouldn't be measured as such.

Point is, you will likely take a hit if you're a quick-flip buy/seller on a new "normal" Patek.

But if you're taking a 50% hit, the problem is likely something else in addition to the expected cost of ownership - there are probably other compounding factors involved as well (paying full AD dollar + sales tax on the buy, a short flipping period + convenience-sales-price on the sell, etc).

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by MadSpaniard

Well, first of all, they really shouldn't fall 50% in a month of ownership, unless you bought and sold poorly and quickly (i.e. bought at AD list + sales tax, then turned around and sold quickly at internet cash-now dealer). You will take a hit, but probably not a 50% hit, even in the short term on a normal production Patek (that isn't an idiosyncratic or widely less desirable reference, e.g. Gondolos and Ellipses need not apply).

Second, holding period does affect realized depreciation - it most certainly does, in nominal terms at least.

If you hold for a while, Patek will likely raise prices (there have been years when they raised by a lot, actually), thus raising the resale prices of current/recent references along with them. For example, when I bought my 5035R back in the day, list price was 18k (and I paid much less than that at AD), but by the time I sold, list price for the replacement model 5146 had reached 28k and steadily increased after that as well, thus propping up the market value of the older 5035 along with it. Yes, those were the good old days.

But even now, for sake of argument, even the current 5205 (in black or white dials, not the early 2-tone gray dials which are far less desirable) has seen its list price go up nearly 20% over the past 2 years (which saw 2 price hikes on it). So those that bought a 5205R 2 1/2 or 3 years ago with a 10-15% discount at AD and no sales tax (both of which can be readily achieved on "normal" references), are not facing the same depreciation as somebody who bought the exact same watch last month at AD full list price, as both watches in mint condition command rather similar prices in resale value.

Also sometimes, if you hold for a while, you may get lucky and have your reference get discontinued, and if it's a reasonably well-liked reference, that will also help prop up the resale value (thus also lowering your depreciation).

Of course, all this is in nominal dollars, nor real dollars (nor factoring in opportunity cost). That's a different ballgame altogether - that's investing.

Here, I'm only talking about the expected "cost of ownership" for luxury watches, Patek in particular, which are not intended to be financial instruments and shouldn't be measured as such.

Point is, you will likely take a hit if you're a quick-flip buy/seller on a new "normal" Patek.

But if you're taking a 50% hit, the problem is likely something else in addition to the expected cost of ownership - there are probably other compounding factors involved as well (paying full AD dollar + sales tax on the buy, a short flipping period + convenience-sales-price on the sell, etc).

I love u buddy and I enjoy the debate...


1) But I have a 5930G I paid 75.3k it’s selling 55k roughly at greys... which means for me it would be 42k or -55%. This is the only data point I can offer.

2) not sure why it should go up in value from here.

[locutus49]

Yikes. Well, if you become poor after selling your Patek and want to buy another, I heard Tierry Stern say boutiques will start taking food stamps.

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I love u buddy and I enjoy the debate...


1) But I have a 5930G I paid 75.3k it’s selling 55k roughly at greys... which means for me it would be 42k or -55%. This is the only data point I can offer.

2) not sure why it should go up in value from here.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Yikes. Well, if you become poor after selling your Patek and want to buy another, I heard Tierry Stern say boutiques will start taking food stamps.

Lol I grew up in the ghettos buddy. It’s not beneath me... can u imagine me walking into an AD with $75k worth of pennies... it’s not beneath me. Lol

[jcoltrane]

Dress watches get you access to the tough stuff, which end up covering the losses on the dress watches.

[MadSpaniard]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I love u buddy and I enjoy the debate...


1) But I have a 5930G I paid 75.3k it’s selling 55k roughly at greys... which means for me it would be 42k or -55%. This is the only data point I can offer.

2) not sure why it should go up in value from here.

Ninja: I hope you realize this is just a friendly debate - it's all good and I totally appreciate your point of view (and you clearly know a tremendous amount about these things).

Looks like you might have paid list for your 5930G, plus maybe sales tax, would that be a safe assumption? Also that model was launched just 3 years ago, so obtaining a discount 2-3 years ago may have been difficult (but not unheard of).

Buying it new today at AD probably would get a better discount than when it was launched (Jomashop has it new at $59.8, which gives an idea of what an AD discount could approximate now). Also, you might be able to get more than 42k for it now (assuming it's mint, which I'm sure yours is).

Point is, on your 5930G, it seems there may have been additional compounding factors (buying at full-load on a newly/recently introduced reference) which put you in an unusually wide spread between the buy/sell price for that particular reference. It's also an expensive, complicated piece for which the potential market is rather limited to begin with.

Had you bought a 5205R for say $38k at AD 3 years ago, I bet you could get over $19k (over 50%) back today. Same for a 5146, or several of the calatravas (assuming an aggressively priced purchase at AD, of course).

Either way: your 5930G is a stunning watch. And your 5711/1R is straight-up awesome. Enjoy and savor them, those are truly special pieces.

[MadSpaniard]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I love u buddy and I enjoy the debate...

1) But I have a 5930G I paid 75.3k it’s selling 55k roughly at greys... which means for me it would be 42k or -55%. This is the only data point I can offer.

BTW, if I'm understanding your statement correctly, a $42k sell price on a $75.3k buy = -45% depreciation (not -55%). So I just saved you 10%. You can thank me later :-).

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by MadSpaniard

Ninja: I hope you realize this is just a friendly debate - it's all good and I totally appreciate your point of view (and you clearly know a tremendous amount about these things).

Looks like you might have paid list for your 5930G, plus maybe sales tax, would that be a safe assumption? Also that model was launched just 3 years ago, so obtaining a discount 2-3 years ago may have been difficult (but not unheard of).

Buying it new today at AD probably would get a better discount than when it was launched (Jomashop has it new at $59.8, which gives an idea of what an AD discount could approximate now). Also, you might be able to get more than 42k for it now (assuming it's mint, which I'm sure yours is).

Point is, on your 5930G, it seems there may have been additional compounding factors (buying at full-load on a newly/recently introduced reference) which put you in an unusually wide spread between the buy/sell price for that particular reference. It's also an expensive, complicated piece for which the potential market is rather limited to begin with.

Had you bought a 5205R for say $38k at AD 3 years ago, I bet you could get over $19k (over 50%) back today. Same for a 5146, or several of the calatravas (assuming an aggressively priced purchase at AD, of course).

Either way: your 5930G is a stunning watch. And your 5711/1R is straight-up awesome. Enjoy and savor them, those are truly special pieces.

I know it’s just friendly debate bro... We’ve met and neither of us are intense guys

Actually I’m been responding in between work today as I read up on this Brexit thing.




Actually the 5930G was bought in the summer... no taxes, no discount. I only bought it to secure the 5711a for my self. The bundle left a bad taste in my mouth TBH. Asking VIP’s to bundle really irked me.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by MadSpaniard

BTW, if I'm understanding your statement correctly, a $42k sell price on a $75.3k buy = -45% depreciation (not -55%). So I just saved you 10%. You can thank me later :-).

Lol. Yeah u right.

I’m bad at math lol

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I know it’s just friendly debate bro... We’ve met and neither of us are intense guys

Actually I’m been responding in between work today as I read up on this Brexit thing.




Actually the 5930G was bought in the summer... no taxes, no discount. I only bought it to secure the 5711a for my self. The bundle left a bad taste in my mouth TBH. Asking VIP’s to bundle really irked me.

You are choosing to read up on this Brexit thing? If I was far far away I'd keep on running from it, some of us poor souls are caught right up in it, literally with bodies now crowding the streets. Hopefully will be decided in a couple of days.

[MadSpaniard]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I know it’s just friendly debate bro... We’ve met and neither of us are intense guys

Actually I’m been responding in between work today as I read up on this Brexit thing.

Actually the 5930G was bought in the summer... no taxes, no discount. I only bought it to secure the 5711a for my self. The bundle left a bad taste in my mouth TBH. Asking VIP’s to bundle really irked me.

Ah, so looks like there's even more compounding factors going on here: the infamous "bundle" or "pay to play premium" for a 5711a.

Well, in that case, part of the unusually wide spread you're experiencing on the 5930G should probably be attributed to the cost of your 5711a (rather than taken solely as deep depreciation on the 5930G). Seems like you were coerced into a full-load buy price on the 5930G in order to obtain the 5711a, when otherwise you might have been able to secure a decent discount on the 5930G if purchased alone.

So the depreciation isn't really all depreciation...if you think about it, part of it is actually hidden/transferred purchase price on the nauti.

Excessive depreciation mystery solved. :-)

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Lol I grew up in the ghettos buddy. It’s not beneath me... can u imagine me walking into an AD with $75k worth of pennies... it’s not beneath me. Lol

I once paid a $40 parking ticket in pennies. Bastards ticketed me in a paid lot.

Originally Posted by jcoltrane

Dress watches get you access to the tough stuff, which end up covering the losses on the dress watches.

Until the high flying sports pieces return to sanity then the VIP are left holding the bag.

[Josh1000]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Wait so u asked for the new 5726 and they reward u with a 5321 and a 5131.
For everyone reading... that’s the secret sauce to get the world time

Lol

In.the UK you definitely cant get "offered" a 5131P or a 5231 and if you are able to get both, your standing with Rhone is such that a 5726 is a piece of cake!!! The 5131P has unofficially been discontinued so they not taking any new names. You can request either watch and Rhone will decide but as for the dealer having them to allocate, def not as far as I know. The 5131R is still strong. Look at the latest Sotheby Hong Kong sale prices. The 5131P has always been weaker due to its price point and of course the bracelet which splits desirability. I think it can be bought at circa $145k on the grey market.