Watch prices are insane.. and not just Rolex.

[jsausley]

I have been out of the loop for over a year, so while this has been happening slowly to everyone to me it feels like a bit of a shock.

Two years ago I was in Vegas and was offered a 15% discount on a Zenith El Primero Chronomaster (the 38mm tricolor with a metal bracelet), but I balked on buying it because I had recently purchased my BLNR and wanted to wait another year or so before spending that much more on a watch. For reference, the out the door price (excl. tax) would have been about $5,800 for that watch.

Now I'm checking Chrono24 and finding new examples of this same watch touching $9,000, with pre-owned units hovering between $7,500 and $8,000. This is for a watch that was not widely popular and was available at retail plus discount just two years ago.

Is this a worldwide supply issue that was related to COVID, or is it just the effect of increased popularity like we've seen with Rolex/Patek? Do you guys think prices will normalize in the next few years or is the new "normal" that watches are all going to start bringing retail+ now? Surely a 55% increase in price isn't solely an inflation issue...

[GreenLantern]

Welcome to a world where watches are treated like cryptocurrency and speculated against.

[DVR]

It's not only watches! Something is cooking but we have to wait to find out what it will be.

[uniqueMR]

It might keep going for a while. Unfortunately!

[_speedmaster_]

I think this is the culmination of a few things:

1) Additional discretionary funds due to COVID. Less travel, less dining out, less expenses accrued having to commute to work, reduction in rent costs in major cities, etc. I’m not saying this is the case for everyone, a lot of people have been negatively impacted, but it’s clear that some have seen their expenses reduced during this past 1.5 years. Less expenses means more money saved, equating to more funds available for luxury goods.
2) Trickle down effect. People unable to purchase a Rolex, PP, AP and RM due to long waitlists are looking elsewhere for their watch purchases. Brands like Zenith, Omega and even some independents are seeing the benefit.
3) Use of watches as an investment vehicle. The markup in grey market prices is attracting individuals using it as a way to make a quick gain by flipping watches. People are buying limited edition models (like Ming or Kurono) with the sole reason of flipping it. People are putting their name on waitlists for hard to get watches for the sole purpose of flipping them.
4) Manipulation of supply/demand. Brands, ADs and grey dealers are more intelligent in how they go about their business. Grey dealers, for instance, will now sit on stock and make available only one or two examples of a model even if they have 20 sitting in their back room. You can look at DeBethune as an example. Watchbox had numerous DB28s at one point listed for mid $30k range. Seemingly overnight, they were gone from the site and now you only see one or two listed sporadically for over $50k.

[loftycomfort]

I could be wrong but, isn't the 38mm tri-colour discontinued? Perhaps that's why they are now going for stupid money on c24.

[Nav01L]

Good thing nobody has caught on to the watch I really want yet :)

[vman]

Lots of speculators at play. There will a correction at some point.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by jsausley

I have been out of the loop for over a year, so while this has been happening slowly to everyone to me it feels like a bit of a shock.

Two years ago I was in Vegas and was offered a 15% discount on a Zenith El Primero Chronomaster (the 38mm tricolor with a metal bracelet), but I balked on buying it because I had recently purchased my BLNR and wanted to wait another year or so before spending that much more on a watch. For reference, the out the door price (excl. tax) would have been about $5,800 for that watch.

Now I'm checking Chrono24 and finding new examples of this same watch touching $9,000, with pre-owned units hovering between $7,500 and $8,000. This is for a watch that was not widely popular and was available at retail plus discount just two years ago.

Is this a worldwide supply issue that was related to COVID, or is it just the effect of increased popularity like we've seen with Rolex/Patek? Do you guys think prices will normalize in the next few years or is the new "normal" that watches are all going to start bringing retail+ now? Surely a 55% increase in price isn't solely an inflation issue...

zenith has rose in popularity outside of europe. especially in dubai. that said a bnib new edition a836 is 9k. so id never buy a used one for the same price.

[shaunylw]

I do believe we will see a correction at some point. I don’t believe that watches will continue in this trend forever. Very few of my friends (mid 30s) care about watches. They certainly wouldn’t be put on a list for something they want. I think in general, over the course of the next 10-20 years, watches will become less important to the younger crowd, in the US at least.

I do not believe we will see any changes in price or demand for quite some time ( 5+ years at least). The demand is too high for things to change rapidly.


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[Wahlberg]

I'm still positive because Rolex upped their prices to 7-10k (even pre-hype) that all the other brands such as Omega, Zenith, ... followed suit because they want to ride the same wave. And I'm sure it's working.

I still think an Omega Seamaster should be 3-3.5k euro max, not the 4.5-6k euro they are asking currently. Speedmaster went up in price as well, not worth it.

[gretch6364]

I can’t wait to see it all come crashing down. The more flippers that lose their butts on all this the better. Watches have been ruined for the people that actually want them to wear and enjoy.

[Jp28]

It’s not just watches. Cars, houses, a lot of luxury items etc all have the same pricing going on to some level of madness.

Lots of wealth increasing around the world right now and a lot of cash sloshing in the system from central bank stimulations. It’s all got to go somewhere….

[Mifune]

it's opportunism... that's it.

it has been exacerbated by the covid shut down, but the grey market structure and price inflation already existed.

Rolex NEEDS to move to a vertically oriented market model IF they really care about the user base.

[Gab27]

I personally don't think the current level of extreme watch buying rage will continue forever. There are only so many wrists and only so much attention that can be dedicated to watches...

In a perfect world, Rolexes would depreciate and become more affordable when used. Now whether or not we reach that point I can't say.

[htc8p]

i think it's really driven by rolex and others including preowned market just follows suit. Watches were not that expensive 10 years ago now its more than doubled. it is not inflation.

maybe people will spend their money on other things.

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by Etschell

zenith has rose in popularity outside of europe. especially in dubai. that said a bnib new edition a836 is 9k. so id never buy a used one for the same price.

That's the tonneau shaped case, and unfortunately I don't find that appealing.

Also more to the point it's a lot harder to spend $9k on a watch than $5,800. Even my BLNR was only $8k, and at least with that I knew it would hold its value in case I ever needed the money down the line.

[cascavel]

Speedmaster, above, covers it pretty well but one has to remember that, as a response to Covid, the major governments of the world, who control their currencies, printed trillions of units; dollars, pounds, euros, yen, renminbi, yuan etc. and distributed them equitably amongst their populations. That means that the wealthiest 10% got 90% of the money and the other 90% got 10% of the cash. So what are the already rich supposed to do? The answer is; buy more luxury stuff.

[DVR]

Originally Posted by jsausley

and at least with that I knew it would hold its value in case I ever needed the money down the line.

This one sentence says it all. In the 'olden days' people who couldn't afford an expensive watch just didn't bother.

Now everybody and his dog wants a Rolex. Loan from bank or family, maxin out the credit card, whatever, it doesn't matter anymore as the watch keeps value or increases.

So if you genuine like watches and never have to give it a second thought if you can afford it no matter what, you have to compete with these new buyers who wouldn't consider buying one if the watch dropped 50% in value out the door.

I'm not saying it is wrong to buy a watch if you might have to sell it down the line. That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is there is a HUGE increase in demand for watches that 'keep value'.
Just because everybody can 'afford' such a watch.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by jsausley

That's the tonneau shaped case, and unfortunately I don't find that appealing.

Also more to the point it's a lot harder to spend $9k on a watch than $5,800. Even my BLNR was only $8k, and at least with that I knew it would hold its value in case I ever needed the money down the line.

i meant the chronomaster original revamped.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPxZngQLKU8&t=796s

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by DVR

This one sentence says it all. In the 'olden days' people who couldn't afford an expensive watch just didn't bother.

Now everybody and his dog wants a Rolex. Loan from bank or family, maxin out the credit card, whatever, it doesn't matter anymore as the watch keeps value or increases.

So if you genuine like watches and never have to give it a second thought if you can afford it no matter what, you have to compete with these new buyers who wouldn't consider buying one if the watch dropped 50% in value out the door.

I'm not saying it is wrong to buy a watch if you might have to sell it down the line. That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is there is a HUGE increase in demand for watches that 'keep value'.
Just because everybody can 'afford' such a watch.

I hear you there and I think that's definitely a phenomenon happening with a lot of people. For me, I've always been into watches, so I didn't buy a watch as an investment, but I'd be lying if I said the reason I didn't buy a Rolex is because it's **safe** whereas buying a Zenith, Blancpain, or Hublot isn't.

[GreenLantern]

I only buy Rolex because it's better than Dogecoin.

[NickD1975]

Originally Posted by DVR

This one sentence says it all. In the 'olden days' people who couldn't afford an expensive watch just didn't bother.

Now everybody and his dog wants a Rolex. Loan from bank or family, maxin out the credit card, whatever, it doesn't matter anymore as the watch keeps value or increases.

So if you genuine like watches and never have to give it a second thought if you can afford it no matter what, you have to compete with these new buyers who wouldn't consider buying one if the watch dropped 50% in value out the door.

I'm not saying it is wrong to buy a watch if you might have to sell it down the line. That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is there is a HUGE increase in demand for watches that 'keep value'.
Just because everybody can 'afford' such a watch.

Add easy finance to that, especially at 0% and they are affordable to a lot more people.

I expect some kind of correction eventually, especially in relation to watches still in production, but a drop to prices as low as 2-3 years ago for out of production sports models is unlikely IMO.

[berchris]

It’s the same with a lot of vintage pieces as well. Even single jewel no name dive watches from the ‘60’s are rising in value. Once affordable vintage pieces are rising 300-400%. I remember buying Caravelle Devil Divers for max $200 and now people want $1000 plus.

I believe part of it is Hodinkee hype coupled with a newfound desire for “vintage” aesthetic among younger people. Which is good to a certain extent, because it is breathing new life into a formally diminishing hobby. Perhaps it will fuel a new generation of watch makers.

[Highend7]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I only buy Rolex because it's better than Dogecoin.

This is funny and sad all the same. But I certainly hope either doesn't continue the current trend because it's not pocket friendly.

[yowlie]

Rolex came down a lot after two peaks I remember. There was an 6 month old LV with box and papers in the Sales Corner (4999) in early 2007. This new run started before the Pandemic. The new Nautilus and GMT were the first I noticed that were selling way over list. Last time it seemed like Rolex only but I guess Panerai had some froth. But now it has really spread. I just saw prices on the Cartier Basculante 2390. Wow. Not too surprised because they are actually rare and haute horologie but that is a huge jump.

[MrBlahBlah]

There are still deals to be had on great watches if you look outside the "hot" brands. GO, Panerai, plus lots of microbrands that punch above their weight class.

[vman]

Originally Posted by MrBlahBlah

There are still deals to be had on great watches if you look outside the "hot" brands. GO, Panerai, plus lots of microbrands that punch above their weight class.

Fantastic pricing on GO, IWC, JLC. Even better pricing when you get these guys preowned. You can get into sweet complications, like perpetual calendars or split-second chronos. Leave the Rolex/Doge for the masses.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by MrBlahBlah

There are still deals to be had on great watches if you look outside the "hot" brands. GO, Panerai, plus lots of microbrands that punch above their weight class.

Such as?

What kind of discount do they give on Glashutte?

[Mifune]

watch pricing has softened over the last two weeks...