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Old 15 January 2017, 02:33 AM   #1
etp
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Icon3 Weekly whats it worth?

After buying my first Rolex in 2016, I decided I wanted to be clever with this hobby. So I built a massive data set of now over 100k watch prices to follow the value and trends over time. One of the fun stories the data showed was the 116500LN Daytona resale prices dropping.



If you are interested in knowing what a watch is worth, just reply on this thread with the brand, model #, and any relevant details. Ex. Rolex Submariner 5513 Gilt Dial

I'll go back through tonight and reply to everyone at once. If it goes well, I'm happy to do this once a week as a way to give back to the forum. Have a great weekend!
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Old 15 January 2017, 02:35 AM   #2
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I'd be interested in seeing the stats for the BLNR. 116710BLNR
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Old 15 January 2017, 02:38 AM   #3
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Interesting.
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Old 15 January 2017, 02:42 AM   #4
Chewbacca
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good idea!

better than wasting away on a forum.
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Old 15 January 2017, 02:44 AM   #5
toothpaste
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Interesting.

Which data are you using to determine the resale value of a watch, asking prices or actual sale prices?

What are the sources of your information?

But I think this may be against the forum rules, at-least according to that one sticky.
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Old 15 January 2017, 02:54 AM   #6
Gasoil4ever
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Great how about the Rolex 16710 M serial ?
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:15 AM   #7
cornerstore
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Watchrecon has same or similar charts. As previously stated your Daytona chart is for nib and used, so yes prices have dropped as used product enters the market and then averaged with the nib prices. NIB prices have been pretty constant for months now. Used prices fairly consistent as well.

http://www.watchrecon.com/?brand=rol...ii&last_days=0
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:29 AM   #8
etp
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@cornerstore very cool, I hadn't seen that before. It looks like that has limited functionality though
http://www.watchrecon.com/?brand=rolex&model=116500LN
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:31 AM   #9
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You should work on trading algorithm programs.
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:33 AM   #10
etp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toothpaste View Post
Interesting.

Which data are you using to determine the resale value of a watch, asking prices or actual sale prices?

What are the sources of your information?

But I think this may be against the forum rules, at-least according to that one sticky.
Pulling data from around the web on the listed price. The problem with sale price, it is hard to get that data & validate. Unless someone showed me a receipt, how would I know whether or not someone got a deal on a Sub for $4k? I tried that a few weeks ago after someone else in the forum thought to get actual sale prices. The problem was selection bias where you get people posting prices without any way to confirm.
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:34 AM   #11
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You should work on trading algorithm programs.
That could be interesting!
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:35 AM   #12
etp
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good idea!

better than wasting away on a forum.
haha right?!
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:56 AM   #13
kilyung
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So it looks like prices (minus the xmas buying season) are trending down?
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Old 15 January 2017, 03:59 AM   #14
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Very cool.

Rolex 116660 D-Blue
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Old 23 February 2017, 05:03 AM   #15
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I'm curious how much detail and segmentation you have in your data. For instance, would this be a resource for only newer references or would you be able to show the trending of a 1675 from the 70's? Depends I guess on how you've structured your data and what it includes but this seems like a great start for anyone interested in the market.
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Old 23 February 2017, 10:33 PM   #16
Jcy90
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Rolex16710 Pepsi f series
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Old 23 February 2017, 11:07 PM   #17
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I'd be interested in what the prices for a 16610 LV Submariner have done.


and I don't believe that this format is against the forum rules. A person posting a watch and asking for a valuation is a violation. Right?
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Old 24 February 2017, 01:53 AM   #18
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Very interesting. Looks very time consuming as well.
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Old 24 February 2017, 02:57 AM   #19
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What program did you use to chart?
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Old 24 February 2017, 02:59 AM   #20
Etschell
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wake me up when they are less than msrp.
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Old 25 February 2017, 11:05 AM   #21
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Do you have updated data?
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:12 AM   #22
etp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gasoil4ever View Post
Great how about the Rolex 16710 M serial ?
For the 16710, I have almost $7k. You can see a graph of my trend line. However in digging further, I only seem to have 1 Rolex 16710 M serial, for almost $12k.

I went ahead and turned my data into a publicly accessible tool (Orolo) - with more data visible after signing in. Hopefully that helps!
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:13 AM   #23
etp
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Very cool.

Rolex 116660 D-Blue
116660 - $9295
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:16 AM   #24
etp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vaulter1 View Post
I'm curious how much detail and segmentation you have in your data. For instance, would this be a resource for only newer references or would you be able to show the trending of a 1675 from the 70's? Depends I guess on how you've structured your data and what it includes but this seems like a great start for anyone interested in the market.
Good question - I went ahead and turned it into an app, Orolo, so if you login you'll be able to dig into the data further. Here is what I have for 1675. To narrow in further, this page has a keyword search so you can compare a subset of 1675s against my trend line.
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:18 AM   #25
etp
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Do you have updated data?
I do - I went ahead and turned it all into a web app so you can see my data here.
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:19 AM   #26
etp
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What program did you use to chart?
It's a Django web app using plot.ly for my graphing.
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:21 AM   #27
etp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaijin View Post
I'd be interested in what the prices for a 16610 LV Submariner have done.


and I don't believe that this format is against the forum rules. A person posting a watch and asking for a valuation is a violation. Right?
Going up! $9275

If it is I'm happy to stop. I figured it would just be a helpful tool
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:22 AM   #28
etp
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Originally Posted by Jcy90 View Post
Rolex16710 Pepsi f series
Going up! $6998
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:50 AM   #29
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116618 LB

I think I know the answer as I tracked the market for a while before pulling the trigger....but still....it would be nice to see what you've done.

Thanks in advance !!
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Old 6 March 2017, 04:59 AM   #30
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Cool
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