5711 Price will avg 150k-200k and stay there.

[shkure]

Too much emotion in this thread. Its just a watch fellas. If you love it, keep it. If you bought it as an investment, you can take advantage of market price to trade for a 5270/5970 which you could argue are undervalued.


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[cascavel]

Originally Posted by GB-man

If you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711 I’d load the boat.

Assuming you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711, would you have loaded the boat with $70K puts and now be aboard a sinking boat? No? $80K puts?
Thank you Mwireless for reminding us of Tesla. Is Dick Chanos still short?

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

My first Nautilus was sitting in the display case and I did get a small discount, but that was late 2015 so I've solved nothing with my anecdotal story.

Was your first Nautilus a 5711? There were lots of Nautilii sitting around dealers cases in 2015 and some were offered at big discounts, the 5980 for example.

[Goin2drt]

Yeah I don’t get it. The hype is real no doubt. I honestly don’t get it at all. I would honestly no joke not even wear that watch. I find it plain and honestly just not that good looking. There are so many other PP I would wear before that one. $150k for an entry level SS watch is just plain hype, nothing more.

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

White 5711? I have seen a few white 5711 in the display case but never the blue. I still remember that incredulous facial expression on my AD when I told him I want a blue 5711 in 2015

When I got a blue on it was at the AD, but not "available" per say.

Originally Posted by cascavel

Was your first Nautilus a 5711? There were lots of Nautilii sitting around dealers cases in 2015 and some were offered at big discounts, the 5980 for example.

White dial 5711

Originally Posted by GB-man

Same here. 5711 white paid 23000 out the door.

5167 paid 18k the year prior.

I actually sold my 5711 in 2016-7 for a loss because I was anticipating getting the new one with a proper bracelet for the 40th anniversary. I felt the watch was due for all new the way the 5 digit Rolex were around 2005 lol

They were around... I think smaller markets had an advantage with this kind of stuff.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Assuming you could buy LEAPS puts on the 5711, would you have loaded the boat with $70K puts and now be aboard a sinking boat? No? $80K puts?
Thank you Mwireless for reminding us of Tesla. Is Dick Chanos still short?

Are you comparing Tesla stock to watches

I’d be doubling down. 3 year options. Tag me in 2024 and call me out for being wrong.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Are you comparing Tesla stock to watches

I’d be doubling down. 3 year options. Tag me in 2024 and call me out for being wrong.

No, I'm not comparing Tesla stock to watches although there is a similarity in the sense that price trends and manias can go on for longer than folks expect them to, and players bank accounts can empty out before a trend runs its course. The events that stimulated the price surges in the 5711 were, to me at least, unexpected, beginning with the popularity of SS in general and ending with the cancellation of the white dial and then the blue dial. Along the way I have been tempted to sell or trade mine but have failed to do so out of an excess of inertia which is, usually, what saves me from myself.

[macrowatch]

Wow, great thread OP and all. Thanks for the read.

My headspace is 100% where you are at OP. And as Ichiran pointed out, carrying cost of insurance or knowing in the back of my mind the watch is practically irreplaceable has deflated some of the joy.

Not sure where I'll land with the same dilemma, but for now I look down at the wrist and can't bear parting even at these prices. -- Oops, wrong thread. Sorry all.

[liljctl]

Let's say hypothetically, you have the blue 5711 and you are fairly confident that you will be allocated the farewell 5711 and in due time the replacement, would you keep all 3?

I understand that all 3 would very likely be different watches but for some, it more of what the watches present rather than the watch. Taking that into consideration as well, what would you do?

[Pimpsy]

Originally Posted by liljctl

Let's say hypothetically, you have the blue 5711 and you are fairly confident that you will be allocated the farewell 5711 and in due time the replacement, would you keep all 3?

I understand that all 3 would very likely be different watches but for some, it more of what the watches present rather than the watch. Taking that into consideration as well, what would you do?

I would keep all three and put them into a custom display case with three tiny little spotlights on them, and softly play that church music with the moaning monks 24/7 through the embedded case speaker.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by liljctl

Let's say hypothetically, you have the blue 5711 and you are fairly confident that you will be allocated the farewell 5711 and in due time the replacement, would you keep all 3?

I understand that all 3 would very likely be different watches but for some, it more of what the watches present rather than the watch. Taking that into consideration as well, what would you do?

Keep all three, why not? At least for a few years while the hoi polloi is killing each other to get them.
I used to live in New Jersey so I know what Pimpsy's talking about, they just love display cases and monk music in NJ. It's one of the many reasons I left. Hopefully, in Melbourne, you do things differently.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by cascavel

No, I'm not comparing Tesla stock to watches although there is a similarity in the sense that price trends and manias can go on for longer than folks expect them to, and players bank accounts can empty out before a trend runs its course. The events that stimulated the price surges in the 5711 were, to me at least, unexpected, beginning with the popularity of SS in general and ending with the cancellation of the white dial and then the blue dial. Along the way I have been tempted to sell or trade mine but have failed to do so out of an excess of inertia which is, usually, what saves me from myself.

I think the watch was always produced right in line with actual demand until around 2017-2018 when rappers decided they all wanted Pateks for some reason. Then everyone on IG wanted one to show off. Patek simply never produced or planned to produce enough to meet the new demand.

I know exactly zero people who have entertained paying market for one now. Back and forth between dealers and to the IG crowd who thinks they are actually worthy of the price.

I am of full belief they will release a modernized variant in due time. Probably for 50k after tax.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I think the watch was always produced right in line with actual demand until around 2017-2018 when rappers decided they all wanted Pateks for some reason. Then everyone on IG wanted one to show off. Patek simply never produced or planned to produce enough to meet the new demand.

I know exactly zero people who have entertained paying market for one now. Back and forth between dealers and to the IG crowd who thinks they are actually worthy of the price.

I am of full belief they will release a modernized variant in due time. Probably for 50k after tax.

For sure. I suspect the 5711 is not overpriced because it's a nice watch but because it became a status symbol of the newly affluent. Once they move on, and they always do, it will cool off. I heard Patek discussed a couple times on Sirius yesterday.

Future & Young Thug
Ayy, what kinda water is that? That's Patek water (It's Philippe water)

Lil Uzi Vert
I had to get a Louis, a bag or two
It is no one that is bad as you
We got new Pateks on Pateks, too
Made it straight to the top, got a whole lot to lose

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I think the watch was always produced right in line with actual demand until around 2017-2018 when rappers decided they all wanted Pateks for some reason. Then everyone on IG wanted one to show off. Patek simply never produced or planned to produce enough to meet the new demand.

I know exactly zero people who have entertained paying market for one now. Back and forth between dealers and to the IG crowd who thinks they are actually worthy of the price.

I am of full belief they will release a modernized variant in due time. Probably for 50k after tax.

Summed up perfectly succinct and accurately.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

Yeah I don’t get it. The hype is real no doubt. I honestly don’t get it at all. I would honestly no joke not even wear that watch. I find it plain and honestly just not that good looking. There are so many other PP I would wear before that one. $150k for an entry level SS watch is just plain hype, nothing more.

Thank you. Well put. I agree and I've got one!


More generally though, I paid ~£18,000 RRP.
I bet if I'd been daft enough to pay the current advertised prices, I'd consider it the most beautiful thing I'd ever ever seen.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by mwireless

So my dealer told me they get maybe two 5270's a year. They don't make a ton of them and yet they still sell at a discount. 20-25% off list. That's a significant hit. I paid roughly 140K for the 5270R I gave to my father. I've seen a few trading around 110k in the watch groups last year. Not to mention a few have literally been sitting at the same place on sale for 130K over a year. My only conclusion is that the demand for them just really isn't there. Pretty scary to be honest. I don't think it will ever tank because there is a market for that watch but I don't see it ever going at list or above because that market is very small, generally older and conservative.

I have friends with collections of multiple heavy hitter watches, and maybe just 1 grand complication if that. I don't see the grand comp ever selling above list unless Patek decides to discontinue it for a span of time or makes it a requirement to have it in the purchase history for getting a nautilus.

I will say this...There's way more people claiming only a grand comp is a real patek than there are owners of grand comps or pateks for that matter LOL.
Fact of the matter is... The nautilus has kept Patek relevant and in the lead. I shudder to imagine where Patek would be without the nautilus line.

Interesting post. Some of what you say is right, some of it is wrong.

The Nautilus/Aqua has expanded PP brand awareness to a hitherto uninterested market demographic. Problem is PP can't exploit that. To do so, would involve increasing production which they physically cannot do without compromising quality (something which they're already struggling with at just current production levels) AND more importantly doing so will will destroy brand equity.

IMO you're seeing this brand expansion as "keeping PP relevant." I think that's entirely wrong. I think what you're not seeing is that PP's dollars come from collectors and enthusiasts from all over the world who don't really care about PP's sports models. I keep saying it, but the market in different countries is radically different to, for example, the USA.

The reason that your lovely 5270 has lost so much money is that TS has produced far too many of them. He's fluffed a LOT of references in different ways. The 5270 most of all. So many variants, so many dials, so much volume.
This compares very unfavourably with the availability of the 5970 which was produced in much much smaller quantities - the 5970p in particular was a very difficult watch to get.

Same with 5170 vs 5070. The latter was made in puny quantities.
Same with 5204 vs 5004. The latter was almost built to order with less than 20 leaving the factory every year.

THAT is the issue with the current GCs. Mr Stern has made too many. I think demand for them is the same as it ever was. I just hope he doesn't repeat the mistake with its successors.

However, this overproduction should not be conflated with 'Fitness 'InstaTubers' demanding Nautilus and pushing prices ever higher and representing the underlying demand for PP - these guys don't - just like the stock market, this isn't a "new paradigm"!

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I think the watch was always produced right in line with actual demand until around 2017-2018 when rappers decided they all wanted Pateks for some reason. Then everyone on IG wanted one to show off. Patek simply never produced or planned to produce enough to meet the new demand.

I know exactly zero people who have entertained paying market for one now. Back and forth between dealers and to the IG crowd who thinks they are actually worthy of the price.

I am of full belief they will release a modernized variant in due time. Probably for 50k after tax.

It will certainly be interesting to see what 3 hand Nautilus PP decides to release. I would bet against there being another serial produced SS 5711 for the very reason that I don't believe PP wants to release another 5711 for less than $80K, before tax. My bet would be, and others have stated this so I give them full credit, that there are only PMs going forward in the price range of $110K.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by cascavel

It will certainly be interesting to see what 3 hand Nautilus PP decides to release. I would bet against there being another serial produced SS 5711 for the very reason that I don't believe PP wants to release another 5711 for less than $80K, before tax. My bet would be, and others have stated this so I give them full credit, that there are only PMs going forward in the price range of $110K.

Time will tell. You don’t shoot the horse you rode in on.

I would bet cash money there will be a sub 50k msrp replacement with upgrades. 6711 or whatever the nomenclature.

The very idea of getting allocated one is pulling their basic AC/PC/WT inventory through and without those carrots a lot of shelfies will remain shelfies.

I know Pateks bread and butter is high net worth individuals but crushing their AD networks golden goose makes little sense to me.

[pepeter]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Guys, so I just spoke to my dealer and it seems like the fate of the 5711 maybe be similar to that of the 3700. Prices to the moon. lol Can't say when but we may see prices between reach an avg price of 150k-200k and stay there for a few reasons.

1. The send off version that is set to come out later this year is going to be extremely limited and offered to those with application pieces and/or ridiculous purchase history. I own 5 serious Pateks and I was told it may be impossible for me to get one.

2. Also I was told the new version/replacement will not be launched right away. And even if it is, they are strongly considering platinum and maybe white gold as the replacement. Titanium seems unlikely. Either way the 5711 replacement (6711) will have the same difficulty of attainability plus a much higher starting price point, maybe double for the white gold and triple for platinum.

Patek as a company is really missing out on a huge premium by selling a steel watch for 33k that sells on the aftermarket for 100k. Instead of suddenly charging 50-60k for a steel watch, its easier to discontinue it and launch a replacement in white gold and platinum version for much much higher.

3. If you didn't already know, the margins are much much higher on precious metals than they are on steel pieces. I would say if you own a 5711, don't sell it! Patek really wants to protect the brand by limiting the amount of steel Nautili that are roaming free in the wild. (I've been wanting to say that for some time, LOL)

At first I thought it was just the dealers behind this but let me assure you... This selling strategy is coming down straight from corporate. I know this because I've visited the factory and they have trained their dealers to follow the selling technique of Hermes who makes you buy a bunch of other things before they offer you a Birkin handbag. This is how they protect the brand from dilution and mediocrity and keep it the desired luxury watch brand it is into the next generation. If you think this is a bubble, you're mistaken. If you think watch prices will come down, you're mistaken. They may correct a bit for a moment in time (10-15%) but it is highly unlikely to see the most desired pieces ever selling at or even near list again. As it is with Hermes, those days are long gone because it's a restructuring in the way watches are going to be sold.

Rolex and AP are following suit. Go to your Rolex dealer and you will see empty watch cases full of datejusts that once used to hold day-dates, skydwellers and platinum daytonas. Now they're all on a waitlist. 3 year waitlist on royal oaks that used to always be available just before the pandemic.

2016: my Patek dealer begging me to buy a nautilus at discount.
2021: i'm begging my dealer to allow me to buy some ridiculous package to get another nautilus LOL

The strategy is genuinely working. But it's not all bad because all of our watches are appreciating in value, hopefully to stay that way.

Sorry for the long essay, but I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. :)

Hi

In November 2020, I was very fortunate to acquire a 5711 with the new caliber 330. That is a rarity, and I imagine that in time, it will be a very, very rare 5711 and hard to come by.


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[KBM]

Originally Posted by pepeter

Hi

In November 2020, I was very fortunate to acquire a 5711 with the new caliber 330. That is a rarity, and I imagine that in time, it will be a very, very rare 5711 and hard to come by.


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that this guy has been a member for two years and this is what motivated him to write a first post. Says a lot about the current market indeed.

[pepeter]

Originally Posted by KBM

that this guy has been a member for two years and this is what motivated him to write a first post. Says a lot about the current market indeed.

I never participate, but I read you what I can ... I am not a writer for much, but I wanted to comment on it .... I don't care what they can pay for 5711, I don't sell


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[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by mwireless

Guys, so I just spoke to my dealer and it seems like the fate of the 5711 maybe be similar to that of the 3700. Prices to the moon. lol Can't say when but we may see prices between reach an avg price of 150k-200k and stay there for a few reasons.

1. The send off version that is set to come out later this year is going to be extremely limited and offered to those with application pieces and/or ridiculous purchase history. I own 5 serious Pateks and I was told it may be impossible for me to get one.

2. Also I was told the new version/replacement will not be launched right away. And even if it is, they are strongly considering platinum and maybe white gold as the replacement. Titanium seems unlikely. Either way the 5711 replacement (6711) will have the same difficulty of attainability plus a much higher starting price point, maybe double for the white gold and triple for platinum.

Patek as a company is really missing out on a huge premium by selling a steel watch for 33k that sells on the aftermarket for 100k. Instead of suddenly charging 50-60k for a steel watch, its easier to discontinue it and launch a replacement in white gold and platinum version for much much higher.

3. If you didn't already know, the margins are much much higher on precious metals than they are on steel pieces. I would say if you own a 5711, don't sell it! Patek really wants to protect the brand by limiting the amount of steel Nautili that are roaming free in the wild. (I've been wanting to say that for some time, LOL)

At first I thought it was just the dealers behind this but let me assure you... This selling strategy is coming down straight from corporate. I know this because I've visited the factory and they have trained their dealers to follow the selling technique of Hermes who makes you buy a bunch of other things before they offer you a Birkin handbag. This is how they protect the brand from dilution and mediocrity and keep it the desired luxury watch brand it is into the next generation. If you think this is a bubble, you're mistaken. If you think watch prices will come down, you're mistaken. They may correct a bit for a moment in time (10-15%) but it is highly unlikely to see the most desired pieces ever selling at or even near list again. As it is with Hermes, those days are long gone because it's a restructuring in the way watches are going to be sold.

Rolex and AP are following suit. Go to your Rolex dealer and you will see empty watch cases full of datejusts that once used to hold day-dates, skydwellers and platinum daytonas. Now they're all on a waitlist. 3 year waitlist on royal oaks that used to always be available just before the pandemic.

2016: my Patek dealer begging me to buy a nautilus at discount.
2021: i'm begging my dealer to allow me to buy some ridiculous package to get another nautilus LOL

The strategy is genuinely working. But it's not all bad because all of our watches are appreciating in value, hopefully to stay that way.

Sorry for the long essay, but I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. :)

Great post. You should be able to get the new release. The problem lies with PP. They love the current market. But, is it a good long term strategy where dedicated collectors such as yourself are totally out of the market. The bubble will burst and the speculators will be gone but will you still be there? Why is nobody at PP asking these questions.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Great post. You should be able to get the new release. The problem lies with PP. They love the current market. But, is it a good long term strategy where dedicated collectors such as yourself are totally out of the market. The bubble will burst and the speculators will be gone but will you still be there? Why is nobody at PP asking these questions.

I know of a guy who’s absolutely pissed that he’s not be allocated a 5740 despite spending quite a huge sum by of money with the AD but there’s no where else to go beyond Rolex, AP and PP though unless one is willing to try independents like MB&F?

[JasonBetts]

Originally Posted by pepeter

I never participate, but I read you what I can ... I am not a writer for much, but I wanted to comment on it .... I don't care what they can pay for 5711, I don't sell


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This is a free forum for all to comment. Welcome and congratulations on your 5711


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[mooty]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I know of a guy who’s absolutely pissed that he’s not be allocated a 5740 despite spending quite a huge sum by of money with the AD but there’s no where else to go beyond Rolex, AP and PP though unless one is willing to try independents like MB&F?

it is all relative.
around silicon, annual spending of less than a million USD, you are just another "regular" customer. unlike to see 5740. sad

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I know of a guy who’s absolutely pissed that he’s not be allocated a 5740 despite spending quite a huge sum by of money with the AD but there’s no where else to go beyond Rolex, AP and PP though unless one is willing to try independents like MB&F?

I have a few MB&Fs and they are very avant garde when you compare it to AP and PP.

Who does your friend buy with? THG or Cortina?

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by liljctl

I have a few MB&Fs and they are very avant garde when you compare it to AP and PP.

Who does your friend buy with? THG or Cortina?

Cortina watches. Don’t think his chances will be higher with THG though.

MB&F recently launched the 10 year anniversary LMX and the EVO. Both cool looking watches. Congratulations on your ownership of MB&F.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Cortina watches. Don’t think his chances will be higher with THG though.

MB&F recently launched the 10 year anniversary LMX and the EVO. Both cool looking watches. Congratulations on your ownership of MB&F.

I have always been curious what's the spend requirements in other countries. Any idea what's his spent is and how much he needs to spend?

Originally Posted by HMHM

MB&F recently launched the 10 year anniversary LMX and the EVO. Both cool looking watches. Congratulations on your ownership of MB&F.

Thanks! I didn't mean anything with my comment, rather as brands they are so different.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by liljctl

I have always been curious what's the spend requirements in other countries. Any idea what's his spent is and how much he needs to spend?

It’s all relative though... I know he has 4 Pateks. One is a 5712G on a strap. But in a grand scale of things compared to the really big players worldwide his would appear insignificant. I visited the Patek London boutique and the SA told me they have clients who spent a total of £20m with them.

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by HMHM

It’s all relative though.

Yes, it is relative but I suspect with the smaller countries like Malaysia it it easier when it comes to allocation.

Contrary to what ADs tell us, they and not Patek decides on who gets allocated what.

The 5740 is a hard one. Like the 5270p salmon, each boutique receives about 2 a year.

So this means 4 a year for Cortina in Malaysia. I was given an opportunity to buy the 5167SG and the 6007a but I am still waiting for my 5740.




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