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Old 28 February 2020, 06:55 AM   #1
austinp
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Talking Stocks 2.0

I think I'm going to do a little buying tomorrow afternoon. Who's with me???

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Old 28 February 2020, 06:59 AM   #2
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I think I'm going to do a little buying tomorrow afternoon. Who's with me???

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No, I am honing my shopping list but I will wait.

I do not want to hold over the weekend, too risky for me. The data is moving too fast. I would rather miss a bit off the bottom rather than catch a falling chainsaw.

Support being taken out everywhere, people are counting on a Fed rate cut which will do nothing to help. VIX closing at 37.48, I am looking for 38+ to signal a panic sell. S&P did not hold 3000, Dow down over 3000 this week. Volume is light and A/D line was only 8-1 on the down side. Not enough capitulation yet.

There is more down side IMHO.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:00 AM   #3
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Amen. What some people view as trying to catch a falling knife I see as dollar cost averaging. All depends on your time horizon but I'm long and strong for the foreseeable future.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:05 AM   #4
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Amen. What some people view as trying to catch a falling knife I see as dollar cost averaging. All depends on your time horizon but I'm long and strong for the foreseeable future.
I agree. Every persons risk tolerance and time horizon is different. Everyone should react accordingly.

Personally I am preserving gains and looking for short term trades at this point as this is going to be a tough year based on the comps.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:12 AM   #5
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I'd be careful on making any quick plays back in. S&P is over correction territory now, looking to close around -12% over the past week. It was looking to rebound earlier in the day but things slid even further in the afternoon. Is the virus a significant enough event to cause a full on bear market for an extended period of time? Given that it looks like the world is still kind of at the tip of the iceberg with it, I think I'll be patient for the time being...
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:13 AM   #6
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I’m not buying tomorrow. Agree that I’d rather not let the data over the weekend build.

I think I’m waiting until the dust settles.

Im in no rush, and I’m not looking to get rich via the stock market. Slow and steady long term. So an extra few days, weeks or even months while things settle down won’t mean much at all in the grand scheme.

Truly, I hope the bleeding stops tho. The last few days have been super painful.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:15 AM   #7
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Im not buying tomorrow. Agree that Id rather not let the data over the weekend build.

I think Im waiting until the dust settles.

Im in no rush, and Im not looking to get rich via the stock market. Slow and steady long term. So an extra few days, weeks or even months while things settle down wont mean much at all in the grand scheme.

Truly, I hope the bleeding stops tho. The last few days have been super painful.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:15 AM   #8
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If tomorrow is similar to today I may do a little nibbling and begin my catching the proverbial knife but also I will hold them for years if not decades so I will take my lumps as the slide continues.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:17 AM   #9
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If tomorrow is similar to today I may do a little nibbling and begin my catching the proverbial knife but also I will hold them for years if not decades so I will take my lumps as the slide continues.
Set your limits and stops accordingly, likely to be more margin calls tomorrow
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:19 AM   #10
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What a slaughterhouse.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:21 AM   #11
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Set your limits and stops accordingly, likely to be more margin calls tomorrow
I'm a buy and holder so I am looking out years and not concerned about the near term or even the next couple of years. I am being patient so no large moves at this time but I plan to continue buying on the way down and then hold on for the ride.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:23 AM   #12
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I'm a buy and holder so I am looking out years and not concerned about the near term or even the next couple of years. I am being patient so no large moves at this time but I plan to continue buying on the way down and then hold on for the ride.
Sounds like you have a plan!
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:25 AM   #13
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Frozen concentrated orange futures people. FCOF!!!

Everyones gonna drink it in quarantine.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:25 AM   #14
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I bought a ton end of day yesterday a lot...got killed today. Got greedy and thought we’d have a goood bounce...I think tomorrow will be another bad day...Friday’s on a bad week, people will be running for the hills....I got greedy...shouldn’t of. As they say pigs get fat hogs get slaughtered.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:27 AM   #15
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What a slaughterhouse.
I just checked my 5 day loss total.

I should not have done that...

I had a colonoscopy/endoscopy today, but Im opening up a bottle of wine anyway.

Yes, long term. But still...ouch.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:28 AM   #16
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I think I'm going to do a little buying tomorrow afternoon. Who's with me???

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Definitely not, yet.

Why is this a new thread, just curious. Don't we already have a stock/trading thread?
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:29 AM   #17
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Definitely not, yet.

Why is this a new thread, just curious. Don't we already have a stock/trading thread.
Well it went a bit off track
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:31 AM   #18
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Well it went a bit off track
Ah.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:44 AM   #19
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I just checked my 5 day loss total.

I should not have done that...

I had a colonoscopy/endoscopy today, but Im opening up a bottle of wine anyway.

Yes, long term. But still...ouch.
I know some people refuse to look at their accounts when we have weeks like this but unfortunately I'm not one of them either. Reminds me of 2008-09 when some were saying the entire world economy could collapse but ended up being a great opportunity for those able to weather the storm. This thing could just be getting started so I'm bracing myself for prolonged pain.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:50 AM   #20
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I know some people refuse to look at their accounts when we have weeks like this but unfortunately I'm not one of them either. Reminds me of 2008-09 when some were saying the entire world economy could collapse but ended up being a great opportunity for those able to weather the storm. This thing could just be getting started so I'm bracing myself for prolonged pain.
I’m kind of right there with you. And I’m prepared to weather this storm. I didn’t have any money in 2008, but I’ve been preparing for this ever since. Anything that’s invested, will stay that way. So ultimately it’s not a loss just yet.

So I’m good for a time, and I do expect this to be prolonged. Which along with everyone else is my fear.
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Old 28 February 2020, 07:58 AM   #21
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It’s a healthy correction IMO. Basically markets are giving back what they earned for the year (10% or so). Just my
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:03 AM   #22
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Its a healthy correction IMO. Basically markets are giving back what they earned for the year (10% or so). Just my
While I don't disagree, we are on the edge of this getting far worse.

That is what worries me.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:03 AM   #23
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Its a healthy correction IMO. Basically markets are giving back what they earned for the year (10% or so). Just my
Definitely a valid theory.

And I am hoping you right. I am certain we all are.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:12 AM   #24
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It's just the law of averages. I have a very long investment horizon ahead of me so I will let my automatic investments buy at whatever price it is that day. In 40 years, it should be worth more regardless of the purchase price.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:18 AM   #25
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I've been on the sidelines for a little while now.....

Bought some yesterday
bought some today
May buy more tomorrow

deploying my dry powder like 20% at a time. Of course this is with "investable" money and not going into reserves.
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:18 AM   #26
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I believe the 2000 dot com collapse was close to a 50% decline for the S&P and the 08-09 great recession was a little over 50%. Having been through both of them I am not anxious for another but I learned long ago that I can not time the market so I just buy and hold and have faith in the American economy for the long term. What is the alternative?
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Old 28 February 2020, 08:20 AM   #27
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While I don't disagree, we are on the edge of this getting far worse.

That is what worries me.
it could put the kibosh on earnings for a few quarters, and then things could recover, putting this at a 1-1.5 year cycle.

Funny thing is two weeks ago the markets were shrugging this whole thing off. and now it's freakinggggg out. Which creates opportunity, particularly for those longer term investors (1 yr +)
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Old 28 February 2020, 09:36 AM   #28
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Im kind of right there with you. And Im prepared to weather this storm. I didnt have any money in 2008, but Ive been preparing for this ever since. Anything thats invested, will stay that way. So ultimately its not a loss just yet.

So Im good for a time, and I do expect this to be prolonged. Which along with everyone else is my fear.
exactly......just wait it out. Long Term is key. We aren't day traders.
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Old 28 February 2020, 09:52 AM   #29
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Just my opinion: If you hold a stock(s), remember the investment thesis for why you invested in it. If that thesis is still sound (e.g. solid cash flow, good results quarter after quarter, increases its dividend regularly, has a competitive moat, etc-whatever you scale of value is to you) stay steady and keep to your plan if you are a longer term investor. If the company's business is sound and you can add to your position with a good price, consider it carefully.

Trying to time valleys and peaks in the market is not generally a winning strategy. Just speculating is much more risky that actual investing.
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Old 28 February 2020, 09:55 AM   #30
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My cash is still on the sidelines for now.
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