Should Rolex be worried, long term?

[skyseadweller]

Imagine a rolex like you know today, but thr “ smart” part is not in the watch/dial part but in the clasp, so when the tech gets outdated you just get a new clasp while keeping your favourite watch...

[iatacs19]

Originally Posted by alex.cicollo

As much as I’d love to agree - remember Kodak? Digital photography will never takes off... Remember HMV? Digital music will never take off.... anyway, I hope I’m wrong as I love my watches - but I think this is yet another industry that, at the high end, will still be disrupted. The low end of the market has already suffered with apple shipping more watches than the entire industry at that price point.... x


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I see it in a slightly different light. Maybe people that had no interest in watches get to start appreciating mechanical watches after owning in Apple watch. Sort of like a gateway drug?

[JDsnewwatch]

I'm probably not alone on this one. I buy what I like, but I also buy what I want my kids and one day hopefully my grandkids to inherit. That apple watch will be sitting in a landfill covered in cow cr*p when my grandson or granddaughter gets a really nice watch that has been lovingly taken care of by his or her grandfather for a few decades.

Don't fall prey to the new shiny fad. They never last... And yes, Rolex did succumb to the quartz game, but in the end, Rolex is still here and that quartz Rolex?.. maybe in a museum someplace?

[locutus49]

Bingo. Implants are in our future, although a few years out. The interface with the brain is the puzzle several large tech companies are working on.

But. I agree with everyone that low/mid-tier watch companies are in trouble. Rolex, Patek, and AP should be fine.

Originally Posted by Brew

Implant of some sort, likely in the wrist, resulting in re-sized Rolexes to accommodate the tech.

[DLRIDES]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

Just read that Apple sold more watches than the whole of the Swiss watch industry.
Some, Swiss manufacturers, survived the last appearance of a new timekeeping technology, but, electronic technology is accelerating and expanding faster
than ever.
Most of us here will say we like our Rolexes the way they are.
Rolex tried going down the, new technology route, some years ago, not too successful was it.

Will Geneva be considering some kind of 'Smart' device linked with a mechanical analog watch face, or will they be putting their heads in the sand, resting on their hard earned laurels, and hoping for the best?

Rolex will be progressive, not worried.


) When young children see their parents wearing electronic wrist devices daily, a new norm will be established in adulthood.

) In fifty years, 75% of mechanical watch manufacturers will be gone.

) Rolex will be one of the survivors due to manufacturing a line of hybrid/electronic/connected/smart wrist watches in the future.

) Rolex is probably closer than most think to the above device !

[ajfjcklc]

I wore my Apple Watch for 3 years faithfully from the day I bought it. Three weeks ago I bought my first Rolex and haven't touched the Apple Watch since and don't think I ever will. I really enjoyed my Apple Watch, but I don't miss the convenience it brought me as much as I thought I would. I turned 50 last year and I think my tastes are changing - hope I'm not growing up. My son has offered to take the Apple Watch off my hands for free!

I have 3 sons, so I plan/hope to buy 2 more Rolex watches some day so all 3 of them get one when I ..... well, you know.

[CashGap]

Some fascinating facts here https://www.fhs.swiss/file/59/Watchmaking_2018.pdf

Swiss average cost, for example, is NOTHING like what we’ve assumed in this thread. We think of the Swiss watch industry as dominated by Platonas. Apparently, it’s dominated by cheap Swatches under $100.

Rolex will be FINE. The ever-shrinking small percentage of the population choosing an analog watch is affluent and they have not unwisely committed to unit production increases.

Perfect example... most saddle makers are gone. High end saddle makers have long backorders and can charge what they like to the people still riding horses.

[mfnj]

Worried - NO - but acutely aware, absolutely! To completely ignore current trends that are as impactful as current technology could potentially have adverse consequences in the future as demographics change and technology advances. I am sure Rolex is on top of it!

[daveswordfish]

The reality is that mechanical watches will, someday, be a thing of the past. We are not there yet, but someday the watches we love will all be antique novelties. This is a fact.

Should Rolex be worried? Not now. If I ran Rolex, I’d be far more worried about the fact that their aspirational watches, the SS Sports pieces that are the gateway to all things Rolex, are selling at 30-80% above retail. This disrupts Rolex’s entire pricing model. A stainless GMT for $15k? Sure, there are those who will still buy it....the rich folks who already have a DJ2 or Daytona, etc. The guy who makes $80k? Nope. Five years ago he could save up and get his first Rolex for under 10k. Not anymore. Instead, they’ll get other pieces. Omega, Breitling, TAG, IWC, etc. they’ll build brand loyalty elsewhere. That’s what Rolex needs to worry about. Just my two cents....






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[dkast85]

They aren’t true competitors though. A lot of people buy a Rolex (or any swiss automatic) because they feel it will outlive them. They know they are expensive. But they figure it will be a treasure that will be with them their whole life and it’s one they can pass down. In a way, a watch is like a piece of art.

The folks who buy apple watches are a different type of person. They buy it for the functions period. They have no attachment to it. They understand that in four years or so it will be useless and will end up in the trash. They anticipate that they will need to buy a new one in a few years.

I’m sure Honda and Toyota sell more cars than Mercedes and BMW. Mercedes/BMW are far less dependable than Honda/Toyota and they are way cheaper. If you are someone who wants to get from point a to point b, you buy a Honda/Toyota, if you want to drive in luxury and you want some extra unneeded power to your drive, you go Merc/BMW. So using your logic, Merc/BMW are also in trouble. But they aren’t…

[Pronto0322]

Somebody once asked the CEO of Ferrari if they were interested in making an “ALL” electric car. He responded “you’d have to kill me first”.

I could never see Rolex making a smart watch.


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[SN13]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

Just read that Apple sold more watches than the whole of the Swiss watch industry.
Some, Swiss manufacturers, survived the last appearance of a new timekeeping technology, but, electronic technology is accelerating and expanding faster
than ever.
Most of us here will say we like our Rolexes the way they are.
Rolex tried going down the, new technology route, some years ago, not too successful was it.

Will Geneva be considering some kind of 'Smart' device linked with a mechanical analog watch face, or will they be putting their heads in the sand, resting on their hard earned laurels, and hoping for the best?

More units. 31M vs 21M units.

$300 vs $3000 product....

I'm sure hyundai sold more vehicles than ferrari too.

[Pronto0322]

Now I read they are making an electric Ferrari. I guess the killed the friggin guy!!!


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[DLRIDES]

Originally Posted by Pronto0322

Somebody once asked the CEO of Ferrari if they were interested in making an “ALL” electric car. He responded “you’d have to kill me first”.

Originally Posted by Pronto0322

Now I read they are making an electric Ferrari. I guess the killed the friggin guy!!!

[TickTockChuck]

Fine appealing designs built with high standards of craftsmanship and quality will never go out of style and are what sustain the luxury market. Wearables are great convenience devices but leave you a bit cold as a reward item. I think Apple tried a 18k gold case initially, but that fell flat and was discontinued. I understand young folks generally not being interested in expensive time pieces, but that changes as you cross certain milestones in life as you age and have the means. There's just something magical about a fine mechanical movement which no circuit board can give you. My 2 cents. Cheers!

[hambone1983]

just because its worn on the wrist doesn't make it a watch. And just because it tells time and is worn on the wrist doesn't mean that there is much if any overlap in markets between Apple and mechanical watches.

In my opinion, watches serve less of a functional role than in earlier years due to the ubiquity of what they provide, and therefore have become primarily jewelry/fashion accessories. Apple tried to make upmarket watches made from materials above the level of junk, and no one wanted them & subsequently discontinued the effort. So no, I don't think they are in much direct competition.

[exador]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well funded individuals will continue to buy what they appreciate whether it’s Apple, Rolex, Ferrari, Tumi, etc...

Exactly. Leica doesn't seem to be worried about everyone having a camera in their smart phones. Sales have increased the last 5 years in a row

[Singslinger]

Originally Posted by HL65

I don’t know Brett, most of my friends who collect watches including myself all own Apple watches as well. I don’t think it’s an either or case as one looking for a Rolex or Patek isn’t going to shop that against an Apple or smart watch nor vice versa.

I agree. Owning a smart watch and a Rolex are not mutually exclusive options.

[meyers]

Nope. Luxury jewelry will always be in fashion

[CashGap]

Originally Posted by SN13

More units. 31M vs 21M units.

$300 vs $3000 product....

I'm sure hyundai sold more vehicles than ferrari too.

$350-$450 versus $859 average, see above.

[htc8p]

I dont own or even plan to wear tech watches except for gshock. Ill stick to mechanical watches no matter what.

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[VegasMilgauss]

Luxury watches are a bit like horses, in the old days rich people had a car and poor people rode a horse - now it’s the opposite.

Expensive to own (for a thorough bred), run etc. Unnecessary but it’s the status and lifestyle that attracts and keeps them in vogue.

[APPRF]

No, nothing to worry about. Interest in luxury mechanical watches is increasing where I come from, and many parts of the world too. A lot of people also have an Apple watch in addition to mechanical watches.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by VegasMilgauss

Luxury watches are a bit like horses, in the old days rich people had a car and poor people rode a horse - now it’s the opposite.

Expensive to own (for a thorough bred), run etc. Unnecessary but it’s the status and lifestyle that attracts and keeps them in vogue.

Exactly

[Highlatitude]

There are two reasons to wear a watch. The first is to tell the time and the second is for style reasons.

Smart watches do many things including tell the time. Therefore if you own a smart watch, even if it is for technological reasons, you do not need to also wear a mechanical watch.

Some people, probably a lot, will own both because there are occasions where they want the choice. However, for many young people, they will never own a normal watch. They will have only known the time displayed on their phone and now their smart watch. These people don’t understand the need for a mechanical watch and will never be in the market for a Rolex which is a brand you move up to from lesser watches. The exception being that currently some young people are into watches for style/fashion reasons. As fashions are fickle this interest may pass.

Smart and Mechanical watches are two different products categories but there is a cross over. The current fashion for high end watches could be masking the seriousness of the problem for the mechanical watch industry. Rolex are not very accessible these days for price and stock reasons. This can hardly help as with less numbers of people owning something the less relevant it becomes to everyday society.

[bobabreath]

There will always be desire for a grail, which is Rolex. An Apple watch is not a grail.

[1William]

A literal Apple and Oranges discussion. The market will support both and I do not think that Apple is cutting into the market for high end luxury watches. Very different customers for a very different product.

[BroncoOne]

If you have a phone on you, your Apple Watch is uncessary (and so is your Rolex for telling time, even across different time zones). That said, people still buy both in huge numbers.

Someone referred to mechanical watches as art, and I agree. Let's look at paintings.

You can get an OLED super high resolution screen to per namely display a flawless image of a famous painting and make it look like the real thing. All for less that $1,000.

Buying the painting itself will run you through an auction process that ends at US $40,000,000, even though there is no need to spend that to display said paining.

Di.fferent products for different consumer need and want states.

[kevc]

A wise man once said Rolex is a safe currency

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Pronto0322

Somebody once asked the CEO of Ferrari if they were interested in making an “ALL” electric car. He responded “you’d have to kill me first”.

I could never see Rolex making a smart watch.


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Originally Posted by Pronto0322

Now I read they are making an electric Ferrari. I guess the killed the friggin guy!!!


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Naw he died of old age...and that’s the point....mechanical watches will outlive all of us and will be viable in the future for all of the reasons they are today.