Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[Vince_76]

And a 5712 watch only for 73.9k…

[ExplorerI]

I just wonder how much margin these dealers of high end pieces have built in. Are they buying them with the ability to mark them down by 10s of thousands without taking a loss?

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

And a 5712 watch only for 73.9k…

Without papers (especially) and box is a meh datapoint.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

Without papers (especially) and box is a meh datapoint.

Not really, they were significantly higher before. Just because you aren’t a buyer doesn’t mean that the listing is not an indicator of the current market.


26331 full set used for 38.5k. That’s just a couple thousand over MSRP+tax… no takers. We haven’t seen anything close to the bottom yet. Where’s that Christmas stimulus we kept hearing about?

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

Without papers (especially) and box is a meh datapoint.

There are so many high end watches without paper are selling at MODA. I wonder how do we know that they are authentic and not from stolen. How safe do the buyers have without the papers?

[RichardBartlett]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

There are so many high end watches without paper are selling at MODA. I wonder how do we know that they are authentic and not from stolen. How safe do the buyers have without the papers?

do you believe fake papers and s/h boxes exist?

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by RichardBartlett

do you believe fake papers and s/h boxes exist?

I am sure they must have some fake papers going around, it is very hard to buy anything from no name dealers.

[Vince_76]

Brand new Pepsi on oyster (watch only) for 16.2k.

Dropping very fast

[AEV]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Exactly. Therefore “sold” prices on moda should be skeptically viewed as a ceiling. Particularly in today’s environment.

Well the seller asked for reference check and mentioned 44k. So that's my data point and it is 1K below ask. But yeah, we don't know what could be going behind the scenes.

[AEV]

I spoke recently to a couple of dealers in my part of the world and they both mentioned they are not touching APs. One of them had particularly bad losses on two pieces. 15500st, new condition, silver dial late 2020 he sold for EUR 35K, and 26331st blue, new 2021 sold for 50K. Both pieces bought earlier around the peak of the market and were listed for much higher prices.

Also 116505 with choco dial/2022/new for 45K which really surprised me as the retail is 40K.

Moral of the story - if you are in the market for a piece and you find one you like, don't be reluctant to bid aggressively as you can only win.

[bblewis]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Brand new Pepsi on oyster (watch only) for 16.2k.

Dropping very fast

That's an odd listing. Selling a new watch, but with no papers and missing links.

Brand new complete set BLRO on jubilee is posted for $19.2k a few hours before, and that's consistent with what I've seen. $17.5 - $19k for a BLRO, which is still way down from the peak. Even at that price range, most listings take a while to sell.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by bblewis

That's an odd listing. Selling a new watch, but with no papers and missing links.

Brand new complete set BLRO on jubilee is posted for $19.2k a few hours before, and that's consistent with what I've seen. $17.5 - $19k for a BLRO, which is still way down from the peak. Even at that price range, most listings take a while to sell.

I saw that BLRO listing as well. That is an outlier and hasn't moved. Please refer to my previous posts, which show that they're clearly in the 17k range now.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

And a 5712 watch only for 73.9k…

For sake of clarity - 5712/1A, G or R?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ts3

For sake of clarity - 5712/1A, G or R?

1A. Should have been more specific.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I saw that BLRO listing as well. That is an outlier and hasn't moved. Please refer to my previous posts, which show that they're clearly in the 17k range now.

Vince, just wanted to say thanks for the daily data points. Giving me hope everyday lol.

Would love to hear some insight from Dmash too (Dmash if you see this we miss your posts)!

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by psm11

Vince, just wanted to say thanks for the daily data points. Giving me hope everyday lol.

Would love to hear some insight from Dmash too (Dmash if you see this we miss your posts)!

Thank you - doing the best I can. Very clear that the market is returning back to its historical equilibrium (which is great for true collectors).

+1 on Dmash - if you're reading this, hope you make it back.

[slim]

Stolen watches are being sold somewhere, most thieves aren't stealing it to wear it. They definitely do not go directly to the end consumer. I wouldn't be surprised if they land on such marketplaces.

[Vince_76]

15400 full set, used - listed for 31.5k. We will be well into the 20s on 15510/15500/15400s in 2023 (trend is surprisingly clear).

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by slim

Stolen watches are being sold somewhere, most thieves aren't stealing it to wear it. They definitely do not go directly to the end consumer. I wouldn't be surprised if they land on such marketplaces.

Selling stolen goods on the web is one of the riskiest ways because it leaves a lot of "technical signatures" (evidences) that can be provided to the authorities.

[GGGMT]

How are prices today? Hot rock bottom yet?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aa909]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

How are prices today? Hot rock bottom yet?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

PM rolexes are all pretty much selling for retail or less so IMO the start of the bottoming process has begun (think of this as the leading indicator). It'll take some time to carve out the bottom but I think we will hit rock bottom next year some time.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by aa909

PM rolexes are all pretty much selling for retail or less so IMO the start of the bottoming process has begun (think of this as the leading indicator). It'll take some time to carve out the bottom but I think we will hit rock bottom next year some time.

I agree that we'll arrive at a bottom sometime next year (who knows when exactly), and that PM pieces are a bellwether for the market.

That said, reversion to the historical mean/trend-line, which I think is where we'll end up, still warrants a major correction to come (~30% on SS pieces I am tracking).

No uptick for the holidays (which some were saying is a no-brainer) is a clear warning shot. There is no silver lining here in terms of prices stabilizing anytime soon, looking at the macroeconomic environment.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I agree that we'll arrive at a bottom sometime next year (who knows when exactly), and that PM pieces are a bellwether for the market.

That said, reversion to the historical mean/trend-line, which I think is where we'll end up, still warrants a major correction to come (~30% on SS pieces I am tracking).

No uptick for the holidays (which some were saying is a no-brainer) is a clear warning shot. There is no silver lining here in terms of prices stabilizing anytime soon, looking at the macroeconomic environment.

also keep in mind that markets that go up exponentially and form a bubble tend to over correct on the way down below historical trend before settling. Not predicting we'll see a price collapse below 2019 levels, but it's a non-zero probability scenario.

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Not really, they were significantly higher before. Just because you aren’t a buyer doesn’t mean that the listing is not an indicator of the current market.


26331 full set used for 38.5k. That’s just a couple thousand over MSRP+tax… no takers. We haven’t seen anything close to the bottom yet. Where’s that Christmas stimulus we kept hearing about?

ive personally seen 5712s around me sell for far higher recently compared to moda. Greys with a store front that you can see pieces in person command higher prices. I wouldnt conflate values on moda as the market as context matters. Sure, the data is useful as a general trend, but it’s not absolute

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

ive personally seen 5712s around me sell for far higher recently compared to moda. Greys with a store front that you can see pieces in person command higher prices. I wouldnt conflate values on moda as the market as context matters. Sure, the data is useful as a general trend, but it’s not absolute

First off - actually sell or ask? The latter is a moot point (see chrono 24). If you followed this discussion you would see a ton of discourse on the slowing velocity and seller pricing dynamics…

Second, regarding conflation of values on MODA - refer to my previous post regarding dealer margin, and how MODA/dealer chats are the foundational piece here. It’s a fact on how dealers operate…

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

First off - actually sell or ask? The latter is a moot point (see chrono 24). If you followed this discussion you would see a ton of discourse on the slowing velocity and seller pricing dynamics…

Second, regarding conflation of values on MODA - refer to my previous post regarding dealer margin, and how MODA/dealer chats are the foundational piece here. It’s a fact on how dealers operate…

i’m talking about actually sold not inflated listings. There’s a lot to consider when buying used on some (not all) from Moda. If things are polished, serviced by a third party, lack papers which results in a hard to date or questionable watch, price should be taken into account with a grain of salt.

eurowatch company is likely better for data as their pieces are all mint, complete, and they are upfront with competitive pricing

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

i’m talking about actually sold not inflated listings. There’s a lot to consider when buying used on some (not all) from Moda. If things are polished, serviced by a third party, lack papers which results in a hard to date or questionable watch, price should be taken into account with a grain of salt.

eurowatch company is likely better for data as their pieces are all mint, complete, and they are upfront with competitive pricing

The same precautions exist with all grey dealers. In fact, most of the active players on MODA are either trusted sellers here, have brick and mortar locations, or a lengthy track record. Some dealers will try to pull the wool over your eyes, regardless of where you buy from.

Regarding Eurowatch - please provide several, tangible, data points. I do not see any prices on there. Also, I'm not sure what makes them more reputable than other brick and mortars and trusted sellers on TRF (also found on MODA).

[aa909]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

ive personally seen 5712s around me sell for far higher recently compared to moda. Greys with a store front that you can see pieces in person command higher prices. I wouldnt conflate values on moda as the market as context matters. Sure, the data is useful as a general trend, but it’s not absolute

Just curious but How do you know how much they actually sold for? Unless the dealer is showing you a sales receipt for you to confirm the actual selling price, I think it’s a fair assumption these pieces were negotiated down from the asking price.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

The same precautions exist with all grey dealers. In fact, most of the active players on MODA are either trusted sellers here, have brick and mortar locations, or a lengthy track record. Some dealers will try to pull the wool over your eyes, regardless of where you buy from.

Regarding Eurowatch - please provide several, tangible, data points. I do not see any prices on there. Also, I'm not sure what makes them more reputable than other brick and mortars and trusted sellers on TRF (also found on MODA).

I assume norcalgt3 referred to European Watch Company who are listing asking prices for most pieces. They have great inventory but their asking prices tend to be up there as well. That said, when they realize stuff doesn't sell they are dropping their asks step by step until it does.

Earlier this week they had two 5712/1A complete, one asking 94.9, the other one 96.9. The cheaper one went on hold quickly and now shows up as sold. The last 5711/1A blue they listed just a few weeks ago at around 120 or 130k was gone quickly (don't remember the exact number, likely it was 129.9).

Of course the really interesting data points would be the sold prices rather than the asking prices.

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by aa909

Just curious but How do you know how much they actually sold for? Unless the dealer is showing you a sales receipt for you to confirm the actual selling price, I think it’s a fair assumption these pieces were negotiated down from the asking price.

Because i have a watch group at work where we openly chat about this.