The pricing trend is a bit shocking

[Etschell]

I've noticed the pricing trend of a lot of swiss brands has substantially upticked to the point where it seems absurd. Perhaps the market can absorb it but I would not be shocked to see either a substantial downturn in the market or large discounts.

SIHH this year has opened my eyes a bit to say, really that much for that? Some of it makes sense but most of it doesnt. So much so that looking at over retail for a rolex piece seems like a better purchase.

Now I get some are limited releases so it makes sense. I am just wondering if innovation pushing the prices higher is really sustainable. Especially when some of the larger brands are going for value plays and even some smaller brand like UN are doing scaled down versions of prior releases like the freak.

Does anyone feel the same way or have thoughts? Maybe I am wrong....

[swils8610]

Prices are surely going up. I’d have thought it would have pushed people out of the market but that doesn’t seem to be the case.


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[Etschell]

Originally Posted by swils8610

Prices are surely going up. I’d have thought it would have pushed people out of the market but that doesn’t seem to be the case.


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Well I may be wrong. I usually am.

[bdex75]

There is a lot of absence of value these days Eliot. I’ll stick with my Tudors.


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[Ballzzz]

Highly inflated from a-z

[GB-man]

For sure. Grand Seiko is a nice cave to hide in during the storm.

[bondtoys]

A counter-example would be IWC‘s pilot watches.

The Spitfire with own movement (finally) for $4350 is a great offer and so is the Chronograph with own movement for $ 5700

[Rolex addict]

The rising tide floats all boats. Economies are doing well and more people have spare money to burn. I don't see things slowing down in the watch world until the economy slows. Personally, I would rather see the economy do well.

[tyler1980]

its almost like its more desirable because its expensive. Some of the Panerai's this year seem insane. Not even counting the LE's which include experiences like diving with the italian navy. Thats kind of cool as if you are into that as people pay all kinds of money for once in a life time experiences anyway. That im more OK with.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

its almost like its more desirable because its expensive. Some of the Panerai's this year seem insane. Not even counting the LE's which include experiences like diving with the italian navy. Thats kind of cool as if you are into that as people pay all kinds of money for once in a life time experiences anyway. That im more OK with.

To me having tons of le just cheapens the brand. That is why I'm concerned for ap.

[Tonyfsu21]

Originally Posted by Etschell

To me having tons of le just cheapens the brand. That is why I'm concerned for ap.

AP goes the way of Breitling.... Say it ain’t so.

[woodsworth]

Originally Posted by GB-man

For sure. Grand Seiko is a nice cave to hide in during the storm.

Definitely agree with you! I'm after a SBGH267 :>

Originally Posted by bondtoys

A counter-example would be IWC‘s pilot watches.

The Spitfire with own movement (finally) for $4350 is a great offer and so is the Chronograph with own movement for $ 5700

It is refreshing to see IWC release their watches with in-house movements and not jack the price up 3x. I think this year will be a "win" for them based off of the releases at SIHH.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by bondtoys

A counter-example would be IWC‘s pilot watches.

The Spitfire with own movement (finally) for $4350 is a great offer and so is the Chronograph with own movement for $ 5700

I just saw that. Also, note the totally wearable 41mm in the chrono. Very good possibility I may flip my navitimer for that one.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by GB-man

For sure. Grand Seiko is a nice cave to hide in during the storm.

And have some ginger bread cookies while we weather it out.
My wife made some during the holidays and I thought I was
in heaven...

[stockae92]

Originally Posted by GB-man

For sure. Grand Seiko is a nice cave to hide in during the storm.

GS is more than just that.

With that level of case, dial and hand finish, I can't find anything with a "Swiss Made" on it that I can afford .. LOL

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by stockae92

GS is more than just that.

With that level of case, dial and hand finish, I can't find anything with a "Swiss Made" on it that I can afford .. LOL

I know they wanted 6.50 for a mini toblerone

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by Rolex addict

The rising tide floats all boats. Economies are doing well and more people have spare money to burn. I don't see things slowing down in the watch world until the economy slows. Personally, I would rather see the economy do well.

I agree. That said, I’m glad I bought my Rolex watches before all the craziness.

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by bondtoys

A counter-example would be IWC‘s pilot watches.

The Spitfire with own movement (finally) for $4350 is a great offer and so is the Chronograph with own movement for $ 5700

Yes, IWC’s SIHH releases with in house movements are very appealing.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by woodsworth

Definitely agree with you! I'm after a SBGH267 :>

That’s a good one. Was my intro to the brand and that dial is somenting else

Originally Posted by superstarmar

And have some ginger bread cookies while we weather it out.
My wife made some during the holidays and I thought I was
in heaven...

I’m trying to lose weight Mario. Shut it

Originally Posted by stockae92

GS is more than just that.

With that level of case, dial and hand finish, I can't find anything with a "Swiss Made" on it that I can afford .. LOL

For sure I wasn’t trying to be negative about GS.

But if you want to go back to the days of being able to source your watch right away with a small discount and being happy, GS is a good option!

[TJMike]

SIHH has been very interesting in the fact that for the upper-echelon brands, only VC and (to a lesser extent) AP offered anything remotely "affordable". And even then, $26k for the three-hander CODE is somewhat laughable. JLC released something like 4 watches with the cheapest being about $36k. Lange released five watches; the cheapest being the LE Lange 1 for something like 43k euros.

I see major problems ahead.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by TJMike

SIHH has been very interesting in the fact that for the upper-echelon brands, only VC and (to a lesser extent) AP offered anything remotely "affordable". And even then, $26k for the three-hander CODE is somewhat laughable. JLC released something like 4 watches with the cheapest being about $36k. Lange released five watches; the cheapest being the LE Lange 1 for something like 43k euros.

I see major problems ahead.

Aside from JLC, most of the brands mentioned are already in the upper pricing range. If AP, VC, and Lange suddenly started making watches in the $3k-$8k range, everyone would think they lost their minds. I'm sure if you look at other releases from the cheaper Richemont brands, there a lot more affordable releases. I wouldn't expect Lange or VC to release another "affordable" watch or line.

JLC I agree with you. I haven't seen any other releases from them at SIHH and they're all in the super high price range when most of their watches are usually in the under $10k bracket.

[Watcheroo]

Originally Posted by TJMike

SIHH has been very interesting in the fact that for the upper-echelon brands, only VC and (to a lesser extent) AP offered anything remotely "affordable". And even then, $26k for the three-hander CODE is somewhat laughable. JLC released something like 4 watches with the cheapest being about $36k. Lange released five watches; the cheapest being the LE Lange 1 for something like 43k euros.

I see major problems ahead.

Let’s break it down. AP makes about 40k watches a year, VC makes about 26k watcher per year, ALS makes about 6k watches per year (roughly). I’ll leave JLC aside for now because the majority of their watches are relatively affordable compared to the three mentioned. So total annual production of these three brands is c 72k watches per year.

There are roughly over 16 million millionaires globally today. If 1% decide to buy a high end watch per year, that covers all 72k mentioned above plus Patek’s 50-60k annual production with some change to spare.

The only reason to be concerned is if this group of people decides to stop spending for whatever reason.

Just a thought.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by texasmade

Aside from JLC, most of the brands mentioned are already in the upper pricing range. If AP, VC, and Lange suddenly started making watches in the $3k-$8k range, everyone would think they lost their minds. I'm sure if you look at other releases from the cheaper Richemont brands, there a lot more affordable releases. I wouldn't expect Lange or VC to release another "affordable" watch or line.

JLC I agree with you. I haven't seen any other releases from them at SIHH and they're all in the super high price range when most of their watches are usually in the under $10k bracket.

JLC released a smoking burgundy red reverso small seconds at 7900.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by GB-man

JLC released a smoking burgundy red reverso small seconds at 7900.

Good to know. I don't really follow JLC that much so other than what Hodinkee posted, I don't know what else was released.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Watcheroo

Let’s break it down. AP makes about 40k watches a year, VC makes about 26k watcher per year, ALS makes about 6k watches per year (roughly). I’ll leave JLC aside for now because the majority of their watches are relatively affordable compared to the three mentioned. So total annual production of these three brands is c 72k watches per year.

There are roughly over 16 million millionaires globally today. If 1% decide to buy a high end watch per year, that covers all 72k mentioned above plus Patek’s 50-60k annual production with some change to spare.

The only reason to be concerned is if this group of people decides to stop spending for whatever reason.

Just a thought.

Idk what they do but 26k for a code 11 59 3 hander is absurd. I dont care how long it took AP to make the curved glass or new design.

Good luck selling anyone that watch at msrp lest they are simply buying the brand. An ap diver can be had for under 13k used. This watch is double....

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Watcheroo

The only reason to be concerned is if this group of people decides to stop spending for whatever reason. .

Please let me correct that for you, the main reason to be concerned is if central banks stop flooding markets with Easy Money. Once trillions and trillions of dollars Euro Yen etc stop flooding the markets, then cheap money won't be chasing Goods frivolously.

It really is just a normal and very predictable bubble that happens all the time about every 10 years. Your best bet is waiting for the next big crash cycle and buy up cheap as people scramble to pay for loans, leverage losses in the market Etc

[Kh114060]

Originally Posted by GB-man

For sure. Grand Seiko is a nice cave to hide in during the storm.

This



A lot of bang for the buck.
And no price gouging....

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by GB-man

For sure. Grand Seiko is a nice cave to hide in during the storm.

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[TJMike]

Originally Posted by GB-man

JLC released a smoking burgundy red reverso small seconds at 7900.

It is a great watch at a very good price. However, for whatever reason JLC does not list the watch on its website with other SIHH releases.

[TJMike]

Originally Posted by texasmade

Aside from JLC, most of the brands mentioned are already in the upper pricing range. If AP, VC, and Lange suddenly started making watches in the $3k-$8k range, everyone would think they lost their minds. I'm sure if you look at other releases from the cheaper Richemont brands, there a lot more affordable releases. I wouldn't expect Lange or VC to release another "affordable" watch or line.

JLC I agree with you. I haven't seen any other releases from them at SIHH and they're all in the super high price range when most of their watches are usually in the under $10k bracket.

I am not talking in the $3k-$8k price range; far from it. By "affordable" I mean anything under $30k (and I know they are not affordable by any stretch of the imagination, I mean affordable compared to the rest of a brand's watches)

VC's SIHH lineup included a couple of new blue dial Patrimony ($19k and $27k), and blue dials for the '56 range (the Complete Calendar ($23k) looks really nice and it has the Hallmark of Geneva certification).

Lange has a number of watches under $35k (a number of Saxonia, 1815 range, Lange 1). However, for SIHH the cheapest is the LE Lange 1 at 43k euros.

JLC did release the red dial Reverso, but did not bother including it in the SIHH releases on its website.

Compared to previous SIHH, the new watches do seem to be priced higher this year. As such, I agree with the OP.