How does the Corona Virus pandemic end?

[Flyinghunter]

My perspective on how it will look on the other side of the Coronovirus focus:

1. Governments will be a larger part of the economy
2. Citizens will have less privacy and fewer individual rights
3. More people will work from home
4. AI, robotics, Automation will accelerate to replace jobs held by humans
5. Online and virtual education will outpace brick and mortar education
6. Telemedicine will accelerate in utilization and insurance reimbursement
7. Online experiences e.g Instacart to order groceries will replace in store visits
8. Early phase deflation will be replaced with massive inflation
9. Biotechnology, Genomics and Epigenetics will have a "Golden Phase"

[superdog]

Here’s my truth:

I look at comments by Fleetlord and I think, okay, that’s reasonable and makes sense. Smart guy, good comment. Valid.

I look at Abdullahs post and I say the same thing.

Two opposing viewpoints. Both with validity.

I see everyone (generally speaking) else and I say, they have a viewpoint and they pick their arguments based on their viewpoint.

A lot of smart people on both sides of this discussion. And there is no right answer.

At least that’s what I see.

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by Flyinghunter

My perspective on how it will look on the other side of the Coronovirus focus:

1. Governments will be a larger part of the economy
2. Citizens will have less privacy and fewer individual rights
3. More people will work from home
4. AI, robotics, Automation will accelerate to replace jobs held by humans
5. Online and virtual education will outpace brick and mortar education
6. Telemedicine will accelerate in utilization and insurance reimbursement
7. Online experiences e.g Instacart to order groceries will replace in store visits
8. Early phase deflation will be replaced with massive inflation
9. Biotechnology, Genomics and Epigenetics will have a "Golden Phase"

Some good food for thought. In terms of Robotics and AI, I’m thinking the opposite may actually be true. I understand your logic, just considering that this is a massively complex and expensive endeavor and the road maps are extensive, already.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by superdog

Here’s my truth:

I look at comments by Fleetlord and I think, okay, that’s reasonable and makes sense. Smart guy, good comment. Valid.

I look at Abdullahs post and I say the same thing.

Two opposing viewpoints. Both with validity.

I see everyone (generally speaking) else and I say, they have a viewpoint and they pick their arguments based on their viewpoint.

A lot of smart people on both sides of this discussion. And there is no right answer.

At least that’s what I see.

So you have totally disregarded my theory of "we will just wake up from a nightmare and it will be 2019?" I'm crushed.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by daveathall

So you have totally disregarded my theory of "we will just wake up from a nightmare and it will be 2019?" I'm crushed.

That’s actually my current favorite.

[Brenngun]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

Your position with respect to reopening the economy seems to be fortified by your statements that the models have been wrong. Can you please tell me what you believe is the reason they've been wrong?

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Yes, I would also like to know why the models were "wrong"?

Originally Posted by mbalmz

a lot of the “the models were wrong!” stuff boils down to this (to quote nate silver):

“There's a difference between what the models said and "what the models said" as interpreted by the media, which often emphasized worst-case scenarios rather than the broader range of possibilities they articulated, some of which were conditional on there being no distancing, etc.”

Since I was the one who originally asked this question I would like to clarify. It was addressed specifically to Patton250 as his position on this subject is rooted in his belief that we should ignore the models because they have always been wrong.

I wanted to understand from him what he felt was the reason the models had failed to be accurate. As a scientist I understand the value of modeling and its limitations. I believe Fleetlord was more or less supporting the same question of the same person. It was directed to Patton250 as a way to more fully comprehend his logic. He has so far conveniently or otherwise failed to respond.

I hope this clarifies the reason for this question.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Two to three months from now we’re not even going to be talking about coronavirus. Of course with the exception of the remarkable damage it’s done to our economy. But then again the virus didn’t do that our government did.

I still can’t figure out if you’ve been trolling us in these threads or if you actually believe what you post.

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

Since I was the one who originally asked this question I would like to clarify. It was addressed specifically to Patton250 as his position on this subject is rooted in his belief that we should ignore the models because they have always been wrong.

I wanted to understand from him what he felt was the reason the models had failed to be accurate. As a scientist I understand the value of modeling and its limitations. I believe Fleetlord was more or less supporting the same question of the same person. It was directed to Patton250 as a way to more fully comprehend his logic. He has so far conveniently or otherwise failed to respond.

I hope this clarifies the reason for this question.

I believe that the comments were all in support of your question. The internet and forums are notorious for understanding tone and following threads.

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Two to three months from now we’re not even going to be talking about coronavirus. Of course with the exception of the remarkable damage it’s done to our economy. But then again the virus didn’t do that our government did.

By the way you have to pay to read the Washington post. I would check out the article because you linked it but I would never pay to read that remarkably biased newspaper.

Mate what are you smoking?

Italy and Spain don't even know what to do with the amount of deceased, New York is making mass graves.

Sticking your head in the sand doesn't make it go away...

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Mate what are you smoking?

Italy and Spain don't even know what to do with the amount of deceased, New York is making mass graves.

Sticking your head in the sand doesn't make it go away...

In a few weeks, we’ll see how the let it rip model worked out.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Mate what are you smoking?

Italy and Spain don't even know what to do with the amount of deceased, New York is making mass graves.

Sticking your head in the sand doesn't make it go away...

Where is this excavation going on?

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Where is this excavation going on?

Hart island.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Hart island.

Seen them? I'd be interested in seeing them.

[statsman]

Right now, we are seeing how the Sweden model (less of a shutdown, discouraging g gatherings of greater than 50 people) is working- not discernibly worse than other nations that closed down more.

Next week, Governor Abbott will reveal a plan for starting Texas (2nd largest state in population and size, 45th in per capita infection) back up. As he should.

Our societies are navigating this crisis like Kobe’s helicopter in a fog. We have testing that yields 30% false negatives as a tool. The virus is too far spread to stop; mandated social distancing flattens and lengthens the curve and doesn’t reduce the area under it (meaning all we are doing by shutting down the economy is delaying infections). A vaccine is at least a year away.

It’s time for a new plan. There is no virtue to sticking with a bad plan, just because it was the first plan. I think we need to make sure enough sanitizer and masks are available, open things up (within limits, like Sweden) and encourage the most vulnerable (elderly and those with HBP, obesity and diabetes, among other things) to shelter in place.

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Seen them? I'd be interested in seeing them.

Oh you're one of those "show me the bodies" guys.

I shouldn't visit these threads.... My goodness.

[daveathall]

.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by statsman

Right now, we are seeing how the Sweden model (less of a shutdown, discouraging g gatherings of greater than 50 people) is working- not discernibly worse than other nations that closed down more.

Next week, Governor Abbott will reveal a plan for starting Texas (2nd largest state in population and size, 45th in per capita infection) back up. As he should.

Our societies are navigating this crisis like Kobe’s helicopter in a fog. We have testing that yields 30% false negatives as a tool. The virus is too far spread to stop; mandated social distancing flattens and lengthens the curve and doesn’t reduce the area under it (meaning all we are doing by shutting down the economy is delaying infections). A vaccine is at least a year away.

It’s time for a new plan. There is no virtue to sticking with a bad plan, just because it was the first plan. I think we need to make sure enough sanitizer and masks are available, open things up (within limits, like Sweden) and encourage the most vulnerable (elderly and those with HBP, obesity and diabetes, among other things) to shelter in place.

Sidestepping your main point, I would suggest that making comparisons across countries on mortality rates is impossible to do fairly because of unmodifiable factors relating to differing demography and geography.

Looking at the numbers in Europe, there appears to be a clear pattern emerging where the worst affected countries have either large populations concentrated in urban areas (France, Italy, Spain, U.K.) or are small countries with high population densities (Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland). This makes sense in the context of an airborne, infectious viral pandemic. Germany is an obvious outlier, but the Germans tend to do most things better. What’s happening in NYC also fits this pattern.

Sweden is relatively large and sparsely populated. The fairest (though still imperfect) comparison would be with Norway, which is right next door, has a similar population density and a similar climate. Conveniently, for the sake of the comparison, Norway has implemented tough lockdown measures. Sweden’s death rate per head of population is four times worse.

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

Sidestepping your main point, I would suggest that making comparisons across countries on mortality rates is impossible to do fairly because of unmodifiable factors relating to differing demography and geography. [/I]

I was thinking the same thing. In terms of Sweden: less diabetes, far less obesity, ranks higher in quality of healthcare systems, lower cost per capita btw, etc.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by statsman

Right now, we are seeing how the Sweden model (less of a shutdown, discouraging g gatherings of greater than 50 people) is working- not discernibly worse than other nations that closed down more.

Next week, Governor Abbott will reveal a plan for starting Texas (2nd largest state in population and size, 45th in per capita infection) back up. As he should.

Our societies are navigating this crisis like Kobe’s helicopter in a fog. We have testing that yields 30% false negatives as a tool. The virus is too far spread to stop; mandated social distancing flattens and lengthens the curve and doesn’t reduce the area under it (meaning all we are doing by shutting down the economy is delaying infections). A vaccine is at least a year away.

It’s time for a new plan. There is no virtue to sticking with a bad plan, just because it was the first plan. I think we need to make sure enough sanitizer and masks are available, open things up (within limits, like Sweden) and encourage the most vulnerable (elderly and those with HBP, obesity and diabetes, among other things) to shelter in place.

That isn’t true:

At least 870 Swedes have died from COVID-19, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins. That’s more than four times as many deaths as its Scandinavian neighbors, Norway (113) and Finland (48) have seen combined.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

Sidestepping your main point, I would suggest that making comparisons across countries on mortality rates is impossible to do fairly because of unmodifiable factors relating to differing demography and geography.

Looking at the numbers in Europe, there appears to be a clear pattern emerging where the worst affected countries have either large populations concentrated in urban areas (France, Italy, Spain, U.K.) or are small countries with high population densities (Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland). This makes sense in the context of an airborne, infectious viral pandemic. Germany is an obvious outlier, but the Germans tend to do most things better. What’s happening in NYC also fits this pattern.

Sweden is relatively large and sparsely populated. The fairest comparison would be with Norway, which is right next door, has a similar population density and a similar climate. Conveniently, for the sake of the comparison, Norway has implemented tough lockdown measures. Sweden’s death rate per head of population is four times worse.

That’s what I see too.

I’m not sure how Sweden’s lack of methods are having an outcome that is not discernibly worse than comparable countries who are locked down.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Seen them? I'd be interested in seeing them.

If you must. Google is only one of the ways you can find these stories and photos for yourself.

Mass Graves in New York

[Brew]

The mass graves are for unclaimed bodies. I think they were stacked two deep. Unbelievably horrific.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by superdog

Here’s my truth:

I look at comments by Fleetlord and I think, okay, that’s reasonable and makes sense. Smart guy, good comment. Valid.

I look at Abdullahs post and I say the same thing.

Two opposing viewpoints. Both with validity.

I see everyone (generally speaking) else and I say, they have a viewpoint and they pick their arguments based on their viewpoint.

A lot of smart people on both sides of this discussion. And there is no right answer.

At least that’s what I see.

Thanks Seth! I wish the topic was different, but here we are.

[FTX I]

I have no idea how the pandemic will end but I think obscurantism and ignorance won't prevail. I hope more and more people will trust science and professional journalism instead of what they read on their social networks.

[scarlet knight]

I think that most of us would agree that this event is unprecedented. That there is no known treatment that is scientifically proven to be effective. If we open the economy soon without treatment or vaccine, more massive illness and deaths could occur, thereby wreaking more destruction on families and the economy.

We could 1. Stay home till the illness is rare, 2. Rip off the band aid and let the chips fall where they may, 3. A middle ground easing safer people and sectors back. I lean towards 1 and 3.

[Brew]

How does #3 not feed the virus more victims? Either the "safer" people won't be, or they will bring the virus to their families and friends. How long do these "safer" sectors remain so, if they're "open"? Won't the virus just migrate there, with the people you just told where it was "safe" to go?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by FTX I

I have no idea how the pandemic will end but I think obscurantism and ignorance won't prevail. I hope more and more people will trust science and professional journalism instead of what they read on their social networks.

I haven’t yet seen any professional journalism. At least not much.

I see folks writing simply the further bolster their viewpoints.

[FTX I]

Originally Posted by superdog

I haven’t yet seen any professional journalism. At least not much.

I see folks writing simply the further bolster their viewpoints.

Different viewpoints are part of professional journalism. It's up to the reader to make his own mind after reading everything available.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I think that most of us would agree that this event is unprecedented. That there is no known treatment that is scientifically proven to be effective. If we open the economy soon without treatment or vaccine, more massive illness and deaths could occur, thereby wreaking more destruction on families and the economy.

We could 1. Stay home till the illness is rare, 2. Rip off the band aid and let the chips fall where they may, 3. A middle ground easing safer people and sectors back. I lean towards 1 and 3.

I lean towards 3.

People are going to die. Sad truth. And a sad truth that I’m currently seeing likeky more than the vast majority of posters. But it’s coming to everyone.

But staying indoors isn’t going to stop that. It’ll flatten the curve but it won’t stop it.

The reality that this can’t be stopped needs to be realized. The alternative is to open it all back up, only once the economy is completely destroyed, and then deal with the massive deaths.

Once it’s open, the deaths will start again. It’s seems this can’t be debated any longer and is fact. It’s inevitable. How long are we going to wait? Until we no longer have the ability to mitigate the disaster? And make no mistake it’s a two headed monster. Not one.

It’s a horrible situation. But a middle ground needs to implemented. Do our best to protect the compromised, test and practice safe standards and move forward.

It’s a new future folks. Different than our past future. That future is dead. The virus killed it already.

We can hope for the best. Or we can plan for the best given the challenges.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by FTX I

Different viewpoints are part of professional journalism. It's up to the reader to make his own mind after reading everything available.

Agree. But I’d really like to see more factual based reporting and less option based pieces.

I don’t even need to read it listen to most articles. I know what they are going to say depending on the company they work for.