Fair value prices

[5512vs5513]

Is it worth having a chart for us collectors on what is "fair value" TODAY for each Rolex reference? I understand this is complicated given how each watch is different, and the many intricacies of vintage rolex (i.e. different mk dials, pushers, bezels, box, papers, etc). So here's how I would break it down:


1. The chart would apply to pieces in decent to very good condition ONLY, meaning NO refinished or service dials, no over polished cases, etc.

2. Each reference needs to have a year range for it to make sense. For example, 1975-1978 Ref. 1675, that way, prices are more aligned with each other.

3. Generally avoid full sets. This chart would be mostly directed for those of us just looking to enjoy our pieces, as they say you can't wear box and papers...

4. Prices of course would have to reflect a range. For example USD 8-12k on the 1675 from the late 1970s.

It's a hard task I know, but I am tired of seeing prices all over the place. And some dealers quoting crazy prices for some "entry level" sports Rolex watches, when some others are offering at decent prices and sometimes even in better condition!

So I guess it would look something like this

Ref. Years Price range
1675 1975-1978 $8-12k
1680 (white) 1975-1978 $7-8k


I'm just throwing numbers there. But I hope you get the point

One more time, I know this is hard, but if you don't ask, you don't get it!

Looking forward to your thoughts!

[zapokee]

It would be great if this were possible. The issue lies in trying to capture a dymamic temporal variable in a static tabular snapshot. It would be like trying to do a fixed chart for stock market prices - it's out of date immediately without constant updates on actual sale prices. As you say, this may be hard in practice.

[5512vs5513]

Originally Posted by zapokee

It would be great if this were possible. The issue lies in trying to capture a dymamic temporal variable in a static tabular snapshot. It would be like trying to do a fixed chart for stock market prices - it's out of date immediately without constant updates on actual sale prices. As you say, this may be hard in practice.

Yes, that is also a challenge, but I think if it gets updated lets say once a month or so, it should give an accurate picture of were the market is.

[Toronto Soup King]

There must be a way (an IT way) to find sale prices from eBay and other sources, then take the median for each model during the time period. Or just ask Jacek for his sales records for the last three years, ha!

[thomaspp]

It will be difficult to keep up, in particular for references with "lower trade volume." But a list of the bread and butter rolex (1680, 1675 matte, 5512/5513 matte, etc.) might be doable.

[Richard Carver]

The sales corners of the various Rolex fora are an up to date 'chart' of current price and condition correlations. The constant being not much pumping going on because of the knowledgeable customer base. Here, TZ, VRF, etc.

[swish77]

In theory, a great idea. I just think there are too many variables and disagreements (some subjective opinions) over the the condition of watches, and the fact that the market changes so quickly.

For example, a nice thick case to one person might be over-polished to another. And you'd need to factor in patina, which can bring more of a premium; bezel inserts that can now be a consideration of well more than $1K; bracelets, correct or not, stretch or not; and also service history, which can also be a big financial consideration. Also, certain dial variations are more sought after, such as an MK1 on a 1665 GW, or late maxi dials on 5513s.

In other words, too complicated. I think each vintage watch needs to be evaluated on its own, not subject to a chart.

[vaulter1]

You might want to have a look at this thread over on Reddit. They seem to be on the same track as you- just add a bit more tweaking for vintage and data sourcing.

Overall I think it sounds like a great idea but as others have noted, especially with the variations in vintage, a big issue seems to be what someone is willing to pay for the intangibles. How do you decide on what outliers to remove from your average? Does the tropical dialed 1675 at $57k get discounted because the high price is due to the dial? How do you quantify on the chart the difference between this and this for a 4k difference? One resource that I use frequently is Watchrecon to try and aggregate the sales of multiple forums and get a current picture.

Lastly, given how 1675 prices seem to have risen over the past year (maybe anecdotally), I'm not sure I really want to see the history in one chart

[5512vs5513]

Yeah... As I thought it might be the case... Well thanks for the input anyway!!

[motoikkyu]

It's hard to factor in good-will. I will pay more for a timepiece from a known, or previously-transacted contact than from a stranger or unknown, because of the risk. "If Dobby says it's such and such, I know for a fact...etc." Buying the seller has a cost, for most of us, a worthwhile cost, but how do we quantify it?