Is nautilus prices moving?

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Also my gut tells me people are using watches as asset class which means it could be a USD proxy. In case the world falls...especially in china/hk its a liquid asset for cash

Sorry i think of non sense while im exercising

I don't think that's nonsense. It's a very effective way to wear your wealth out of the country if forced to "relocate" and other assets are frozen. Same reason Seattle home prices are what they are (pre-parking assets outside of gov't reach).

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

As we have seen plenty of rumours prove to be baseless, I am generally skeptical to those who believe they have advance knowledge of PP’s product development plans. With that in mind, I have been told a few times in recent months that the 5712 is on the chopping block for Baselworld 2019. With the introduction of the 5740/1G and demand for this presumably higher margin piece, I can see a logic in freeing up calibre 240 supply from the 5712 offering. Perhaps there is anyway enough excess supply of this movement available from other calibration 240 pieces, not least the glut of eg 5327 references.

I would think that watchmakers qualified to turn a 240 into a 5740 would be the bigger bottleneck than production capacity of 240 base calibers. That said, an additional way to free up available 240 bases would be to migrate the 5167 to the 330 (which I've also hears entirely unsubstantiated speculation/conjecture of on this forum).

Originally Posted by unknown

the 5711P is selling between 200 and 220K EURO today and it seems the demand is still high
cheapest today are at 210K euro
A friend of me wanted to buy one, found one on chrono24 for about 190K , contacted the seller be he told it was already sold

But that was a very limited special edition. I wouldn't expect its prices to reflect the rest of the line in any way, and would expect it to trade at a premium regardless of the line's popularity. Seems the two compound each other in this case.

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

If Patek is sold, I would any new owner would increase SS production across the board and steel prices aftermarket will be retail or less once the added stock hits the market. This is how it should be.

Originally Posted by GB-man

A return to the days of buying an SS reference and then losing 10% if you sell would be welcome in my book.

What would be less welcome is the undoubted compromise on quality inherent from the cost-cutting/production increase measures taken by a conglomerate or financial buyer. Any buyer choosing to increase SS production would undoubtedly be primarily concerned about the short-term and cashing in on brand history/current hype.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by benlee

There's something very wrong when a simple 3 hands nautilus like the 5711 is fetching more than a Patek perpetual calendar chronograph 5270. Most of this price increase is support by demand ( and low production ). It means my one and only Nautilus is increasing in value day by day which I should be "happy". But that just about rules me out of any future Nautilus purchase as well.

Don’t scratch it Ben. Lol. RG is very soft...

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by dannyp

I would think that watchmakers qualified to turn a 240 into a 5740 would be the bigger bottleneck than production capacity of 240 base calibers. That said, an additional way to free up available 240 bases would be to migrate the 5167 to the 330 (which I've also hears entirely unsubstantiated speculation/conjecture of on this forum)

5167 has caliber 324 SC and I can't understand how moving it to new caliber 26-330 SC would free up 240 base calibers.

If they want to free up 240 base calibers it makes more sense to discontinue modes such as 5738 or 6006G

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

5167 has caliber 324 SC and I can't understand how moving it to new caliber 26-330 SC would free up 240 base calibers.

If they want to free up 240 base calibers it makes more sense to discontinue modes such as 5738 or 6006G

I remembered both references had a "2" and a "4" but clearly forgot in what order, or what the third digit was .

[Drkd]

Unfortunately yes they are moving, if you haven't got one

But if you have, then we should all admit we are happy about it

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[ufboy73]

So, is it safe to assume 5980 prices are thru the roof if even the just recently, not so desirable, red-headed nautilus like the 5726 has asking prices over 100k in many cases?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

So, is it safe to assume 5980 prices are thru the roof if even the just recently, not so desirable, red-headed nautilus like the 5726 has asking prices over 100k in many cases?

The 59801a is 140k on the ask... the 5990 has surpassed it. I suspect... the 5990 will probably reach the same price as the 5980/1r with a 175-180k ask...

[Drkd]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The 59801a is 140k on the ask... the 5990 has surpassed it. I suspect... the 5990 will probably reach the same price as the 5980/1r with a 175-180k ask...

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...goal_suggest=1

No these are through the roof

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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Drkd

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...goal_suggest=1

No these are through the roof

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They are...I know someone that has one... he also has an orange Casio :)

[Drkd]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

They are...I know someone that has one... he also has an orange Casio :)

Lucky casio owner x

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[benlee]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Don’t scratch it Ben. Lol. RG is very soft...

Its already scratched but not serious

[Drkd]

Originally Posted by benlee

Its already scratched but not serious

But IMO at least your wearing and enjoying and it's not gathering dust

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[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The 59801a is 140k on the ask... the 5990 has surpassed it. I suspect... the 5990 will probably reach the same price as the 5980/1r with a 175-180k ask...

And your suspicion is there would not be a corresponding increase in watches like say the PCC (eg 5970/5270)?

In other words, a steel 5990 would be in the region of a platinum PCC???

What a distorted market that would be!!

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

And your suspicion is there would not be a corresponding increase in watches like say the PCC (eg 5970/5270)?

In other words, a steel 5990 would be in the region of a platinum PCC???

What a distorted market that would be!!

Nope. A 5270P and 5370P has come down... u can see this across the board

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Nope. A 5270P and 5370P has come down... u can see this across the board

Do folks think this SS sport madness is sustainable?

[Drkd]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

Do folks think this SS sport madness is sustainable?

Isn't that the million dollar?


As we all know Patek prefer making the gold models and complications, but people prefer the sports watch as entry level was an awful lot chepaer

This madness has only happened in the last 2-3 years

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[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Nope. A 5270P and 5370P has come down... u can see this across the board

I love my 5990 - but i must say if my 5990
(Plus a very nominal amount of cash) nets me a 5970G...i might be out!!

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by Drkd

Isn't that the million dollar?


As we all know Patek prefer making the gold models and complications, but people prefer the sports watch as entry level was an awful lot chepaer

This madness has only happened in the last 2-3 years

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I dont follow these things nearly as closely as others on here...but my personal feelings are its an anomaly that is not sustainable but who knows how large the distortion will ultimately be and/or when it will subside...but it will peak and subside

[Drkd]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

I dont follow these things nearly as closely as others on here...but my personal feelings are its an anomaly that is not sustainable but who knows how large the distortion will ultimately be and/or when it will subside...but it will peak and subside

Yep it's a head fuck so to speak

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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

I love my 5990 - but i must say if my 5990
(Plus a very nominal amount of cash) nets me a 5970G...i might be out!!

That’s why I started the other thread...

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Drkd

Isn't that the million dollar?


As we all know Patek prefer making the gold models and complications, but people prefer the sports watch as entry level was an awful lot chepaer

This madness has only happened in the last 2-3 years

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Originally Posted by ufboy73

I dont follow these things nearly as closely as others on here...but my personal feelings are its an anomaly that is not sustainable but who knows how large the distortion will ultimately be and/or when it will subside...but it will peak and subside

Whether or not it's sustainable will depend primarily on two things:

1. Continued interest from non-collectors.

2. Restricted supply.

Previously, MSRP minus some percentage, was the going rate for the sport models when PP was a brand for collectors and connoisseurs. Now, general interest has surged, but supply is still based on previous (i.e. PP's "intended") consumption levels.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by dannyp

Whether or not it's sustainable will depend primarily on two things:

1. Continued interest from non-collectors.

2. Restricted supply.

Previously, MSRP minus some percentage, was the going rate for the sport models when PP was a brand for collectors and connoisseurs. Now, general interest has surged, but supply is still based on previous (i.e. PP's "intended") consumption levels.

This is what I actually think the grey market is good for. I think the greys help provide price discovery...this is the closest to a real-time market maker you can get.

Vintage collectors have spreadsheets and follow auctions...very old school.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

This is what I actually think the grey market is good for. I think the greys help provide price discovery...this is the closest to a real-time market maker you can get.

Vintage collectors have spreadsheets and follow auctions...very old school.

Yes, certainly in the case of PP. Sort of like when companies IPO and shares are traded on open markets, as opposed to private equity transactions, where everything trades in priced rounds and is often a poor reflection of market value.

Rolex it serves also as a secondary distribution channel for hard-to-move PM pieces that Rolex doesn't want its ADs publicly discounting, but with its substantially lower production, I don't think PP has that issue.

[timepieceluvr]

I can’t see the 100K numbers being real.

Here is what mine says on Chrono24:


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[AK797]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

Do folks think this SS sport madness is sustainable?

The thing is I do think this is the new norm for Rolex, as that is at a price point that can always be bought by many people, even if a recession hits, and the demands of social media will still be there as a strong buttress to keep demand high. With Patek I'm not quite as sure if the same ratios are sustainable, are there enough people who will buy these at such high prices when the economy changes to maintain this market, or will common sense prevail and demand and prices fall, not back to retail but still significantly. The market is so much smaller and so more niche that it is a delicate balance, not sure which way it will go, maybe the power of SM will just hold sway.

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by AK797

The thing is I do think this is the new norm for Rolex, as that is at a price point that can always be bought by many people, even if a recession hits, and the demands of social media will still be there as a strong buttress to keep demand high. With Patek I'm not quite as sure if the same ratios are sustainable, are there enough people who will buy these at such high prices when the economy changes to maintain this market, or will common sense prevail and demand and prices fall, not back to retail but still significantly. The market is so much smaller and so more niche that it is a delicate balance, not sure which way it will go, maybe the power of SM will just hold sway.

I was thinking about a similar thing earlier today (i.e. the relative volume and demographic Rolex generally caters to vs much smaller world of a brand like PP)...

I was thinking about a slightly different context, however, that of 'bundling'...given the relative affluence of the PP market, I can see the company increasing revenue by 'forcing' their buyers to buy multiple pieces before getting some of the more coveted pieces...after all, if a buyer is potentially in the market for $100-200k pieces, what's another 100k in purchases to secure what they want...

With Rolex demographic, however, I don't know that just because someone may be in the market for a sub or gmt they are able/willing to spend another 50k+ on other pieces just to secure it.

I can see the price elasticity of PP being higher than that of Rolex (which I think is basically what you are saying) - but the means are much higher and its more likely a much less significant purchase in their grand scheme of things.

I still can't figure out Rolex is making a lot more money by selling a lot less volume of the watches they were previously disproportionately selling...they didn't significantly raise prices, so profitability is not going up?

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

I was thinking about a similar thing earlier today (i.e. the relative volume and demographic Rolex generally caters to vs much smaller world of a brand like PP)...

I was thinking about a slightly different context, however, that of 'bundling'...given the relative affluence of the PP market, I can see the company increasing revenue by 'forcing' their buyers to buy multiple pieces before getting some of the more coveted pieces...after all, if a buyer is potentially in the market for $100-200k pieces, what's another 100k in purchases to secure what they want...

With Rolex demographic, however, I don't know that just because someone may be in the market for a sub or gmt they are able/willing to spend another 50k+ on other pieces just to secure it.

I can see the price elasticity of PP being higher than that of Rolex (which I think is basically what you are saying) - but the means are much higher and its more likely a much less significant purchase in their grand scheme of things.

I still can't figure out Rolex is making a lot more money by selling a lot less volume of the watches they were previously disproportionately selling...they didn't significantly raise prices, so profitability is not going up?

You're onto a couple of notable points here:

1. Demographics. Not just about spending ability. I think a higher percentage of Patek buyers are collectors, who buy many watches over their lifetimes, while more Rolex buyers want a Sub/DJ/etc. as their one-and-only.

Even a Rolex buyer able to spend $50k to get an $8k watch wouldn't because they have no plan of accumulating a bunch of watches. Patek buyers, on the other hand, are more likely to say "I'll spend $200k on watches eventually, might as well be now."

2. The long game. Patek and Rolex both play it, albeit differently. With Patek, the long game is about getting its customers to collect and buy one watch after another. With Rolex, it's about using the stainless pieces, and the allure around their supposed scarcity, to lure buyers into buying TT/PM pieces when those are unavailable.

While PP sport models command a premium regardless of the metal, Rolexes only command a premium in stainless. In fact, the TT models tend to set the ceiling prices for the stainless on the grey market. That tells me that by restricting (or seeming to restrict) the flow of stainless, Rolex convinces its buyers to opt instead for the TT/PM versions since "hell, it's the same price."

[Dlindsay]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

They are...I know someone that has one... he also has an orange Casio :)

I remember 2 banned members, that Karl guy and Danestaff guy had 5711P watches

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=657749

It seems that Karl guy has been banned from instagram as well.

[goog53]

Originally Posted by Dlindsay

It seems that Karl guy has been banned from instagram as well.

Not banned from IG. Changed his name because he is sick of stalkers like you constantly talking about him.

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by dannyp

You're onto a couple of notable points here:

1. Demographics. Not just about spending ability. I think a higher percentage of Patek buyers are collectors, who buy many watches over their lifetimes, while more Rolex buyers want a Sub/DJ/etc. as their one-and-only.

Even a Rolex buyer able to spend $50k to get an $8k watch wouldn't because they have no plan of accumulating a bunch of watches. Patek buyers, on the other hand, are more likely to say "I'll spend $200k on watches eventually, might as well be now."

2. The long game. Patek and Rolex both play it, albeit differently. With Patek, the long game is about getting its customers to collect and buy one watch after another. With Rolex, it's about using the stainless pieces, and the allure around their supposed scarcity, to lure buyers into buying TT/PM pieces when those are unavailable.

While PP sport models command a premium regardless of the metal, Rolexes only command a premium in stainless. In fact, the TT models tend to set the ceiling prices for the stainless on the grey market. That tells me that by restricting (or seeming to restrict) the flow of stainless, Rolex convinces its buyers to opt instead for the TT/PM versions since "hell, it's the same price."

This makes a lot of sense to me - thanks for the thoughts!