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Old 7 April 2018, 10:52 PM   #811
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Can I say "SHORT".
The Alternative Harvest Fund is not even a cannabis fund. They launched when cannabis was trading up and wrapped themselves in the sex appeal of cannabis as the hot sector, but never really had that much in cannabis exposure in relative nor absolute terms. That is a non-event as the fund is only $340MM and has no less than 5-6 tobacco cos, biotech cos, and even Scott’s Miracle Grow.
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Old 8 April 2018, 12:07 AM   #812
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Okay, then I guess this particular product was being grown solely for cancer patients. How altruistic!

http://420intel.com/articles/2018/04...un-chinese-mob
Not really sure what your point is. People who do not believe that the current valuations make sense =/= being against legalization. Hence, the strawman argument that you are knocking the stuffings out of.

I would think given your prior prognostications (APH to 80-90 based on your “conservative” multiples) a smidge of modesty would be in order. Reminds me of the old adage - frequently wrong but never in doubt.

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Old 8 April 2018, 02:26 AM   #813
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Not really sure what your point is. People who do not believe that the current valuations make sense =/= being against legalization. Hence, the strawman argument that you are knocking the stuffings out of.

I would think given your prior prognostications (APH to 80-90 based on your “conservative” multiples) a smidge of modesty would be in order. Reminds me of the old adage - frequently wrong but never in doubt.

Actually, I’m not exactly sure what YOUR point is. In Early December, I recommended that people take a look at Aphria when it was trading at $10.47, and within a month it traded up to $19.80, before the entire sector corrected when the vote and subsequent launch of legalization was delayed.

I still believe Aphria will trade to $80 at some point once earnings are normalized at full capacity and when edibles are finally allowed, likely in 2020. Personally, I had over $2.3MM invested in Aphria alone up to the cannabis correction starting in late-February. So again, what is your point, other than being a non-constructive extremely negative Monday morning quarterback. I put my money where my mouth is and have taken some high six figure profits at certain points, also taken some six figure losses at other points, and currently hold 100,000 shares, and am close to investing another $800k in the company, possibly as soon as next week. How about yourself? Do you actually even invest in the space or only sell “media” to black market growers.

Kind of feels like you are rooting more for the thugs running the criminal black market than for regulated cannabis. Is that your primary customer base as opposed to legal grow ops? Personally, I believe regulated cannabis will bring the true potential of the plant out of the shadows, allow for safer lab tested consistency, garner ground-breaking progress towards researching its use in a currently unfathomable amount of medical, recreational, nutraceutical, and cosmetic products.

BTW...Nobody said Aphria is going straight to $80 without lots of fits and starts, as the entire industry grows, matures, expands into new and previously unimagined ways. The global shift towards legalization is proceeding at an exponential rate daily/weekly/monthly. I’m looking way down the road at far greater things for the company and industry. With that said, I think trading a volatile sector is probably a more prudent strategy than buying and holding the entire time, unless you are only investing small dollar amounts.

If I recall, if I had listened to your initial negativity, I would never have booked some monumental profits as an investor in Aphria, Aurora, and Canopy. I think I’ll stick with my own investment thesis. Regarding valuations, they are all across the board, and most smaller companies ARE overvalued and will likely be out of business by the end of 2019, especially if prices do drop. Even some larger companies are not what they appear to be (Cronos for one), but the cream will ultimately rise to the top, and it is hard to envision a world where Canopy, Aphria, and Aurora are not leading the pack.
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Old 8 April 2018, 03:26 AM   #814
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Publicly-traded Cannabis Industry Companies

@cornerstore - As far as illegal grow operations being sanitary, the company I work for cleans them up for the USFS after the DEA or Sherrif’s office has removed the pot. We have to bag up all the unlabeled chemicals and lab pack them for disposal as haz waste. Our people are in respirators, tyvek coveralls and wearing chemical resistant gloves for their protection.
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Old 8 April 2018, 04:24 AM   #815
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Actually, I’m not exactly sure what YOUR point is. In Early December, I recommended that people take a look at Aphria when it was trading at $10.47, and within a month it traded up to $19.80, before the entire sector corrected when the vote and subsequent launch of legalization was delayed.

I still believe Aphria will trade to $80 at some point once earnings are normalized at full capacity and when edibles are finally allowed, likely in 2020. Personally, I had over $2.3MM invested in Aphria alone up to the cannabis correction starting in late-February. So again, what is your point, other than being a non-constructive extremely negative Monday morning quarterback. I put my money where my mouth is and have taken some high six figure profits at certain points, also taken some six figure losses at other points, and currently hold 100,000 shares, and am close to investing another $800k in the company, possibly as soon as next week. How about yourself? Do you actually even invest in the space or only sell “media” to black market growers.

Kind of feels like you are rooting more for the thugs running the criminal black market than for regulated cannabis. Is that your primary customer base as opposed to legal grow ops? Personally, I believe regulated cannabis will bring the true potential of the plant out of the shadows, allow for safer lab tested consistency, garner ground-breaking progress towards researching its use in a currently unfathomable amount of medical, recreational, nutraceutical, and cosmetic products.

BTW...Nobody said Aphria is going straight to $80 without lots of fits and starts, as the entire industry grows, matures, expands into new and previously unimagined ways. The global shift towards legalization is proceeding at an exponential rate daily/weekly/monthly. I’m looking way down the road at far greater things for the company and industry. With that said, I think trading a volatile sector is probably a more prudent strategy than buying and holding the entire time, unless you are only investing small dollar amounts.

If I recall, if I had listened to your initial negativity, I would never have booked some monumental profits as an investor in Aphria, Aurora, and Canopy. I think I’ll stick with my own investment thesis. Regarding valuations, they are all across the board, and most smaller companies ARE overvalued and will likely be out of business by the end of 2019, especially if prices do drop. Even some larger companies are not what they appear to be (Cronos for one), but the cream will ultimately rise to the top, and it is hard to envision a world where Canopy, Aphria, and Aurora are not leading the pack.
Don’t believe I have ever given investment advice in this thread. But I have consistently stated I believe in the industry and support legalization but that the valuations on these stocks do not make sense. You have stated that anyone who doesn’t support these stocks supports selling to kids and support the mafia. Good talk.
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Old 9 April 2018, 07:15 AM   #816
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Shorting most plays in this area is possibly very risky given the pullbacks most have experienced lately. If one is convinced they are heading lower it might be better to wait for a good dead cat bounce and short into strength.
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Old 9 April 2018, 07:26 AM   #817
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@cornerstore - As far as illegal grow operations being sanitary, the company I work for cleans them up for the USFS after the DEA or Sherrif’s office has removed the pot. We have to bag up all the unlabeled chemicals and lab pack them for disposal as haz waste. Our people are in respirators, tyvek coveralls and wearing chemical resistant gloves for their protection.
Proactive workers compensation rules don’t necessarily indicate a sanitation problem only a potential hazardous waste problem. Unlabelled chemicals are not likely unsanitary, mold and fungus on the product are. Chemicals other than fertilizer generally indicate growers are being proactive to avoid and control those types of organic contaminates. I would suit up too if not familiar with what’s in unmarked containers or working around bleach and other disinfectants.
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Old 9 April 2018, 07:39 AM   #818
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“BTW...spare everyone the glowing nobility of illegal grow ops and their underworld drug dealing distribution network. They are criminals, and their anti-legalization rants are just butthurt excuses for not following the rules themselves, period.”

Personally as a grandfather I do not want it legalized only decriminalized. I don’t think it should be readily available to anyone under 25. Crims are salivating over the prospect of legalization. Now they will have a bigger market place to sell into, with lower production costs they can undercut government prices and expand their operations with little scrutiny. BTW .... spare everyone glowing financial projections on stock valuations particularly in a industry with no quantifiable track record. In my view the real crims are penny stock VC’s. they exploit the uninitiated and the gullible. Known a few doing time for that very thing. What glowing nobility comments are you referencing that in your view I am making?
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Old 10 April 2018, 10:52 PM   #819
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I assmune you had to get into this when it was penny stocks to be happy these have been nothing but losers for me anyway glad i didnt bet the farm on them
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Old 11 April 2018, 11:29 PM   #820
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Quebec announced their long term supply deals today. Hydro gets a minimum of $800B (CDN) in revenues over 5 years from it; approximately.

WEED, APH, ACB, LEAF also land lesser deals.

also, John Boehner joined the advisory board of a US Cannabis company

https://www.bnn.ca/ex-speaker-john-b...oard-1.1053466
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Old 12 April 2018, 12:51 AM   #821
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$800B nothing reported that I can find on a potential Trillon dollar deal.
Found this but no mention of dollar values.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/...ian-companies/
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Old 12 April 2018, 12:54 AM   #822
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Quebec announced their long term supply deals today. Hydro gets a minimum of $800B (CDN) in revenues over 5 years from it; approximately.

WEED, APH, ACB, LEAF also land lesser deals.

also, John Boehner joined the advisory board of a US Cannabis company

https://www.bnn.ca/ex-speaker-john-b...oard-1.1053466
Link ? $800 B
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Old 12 April 2018, 10:50 AM   #823
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it's an extrapolation of 200,000kg at $4/gram wholesale.. 200,000kg is stated, $4/g is a reasonable wholesale value. This likely represents a floor of sorts.

lots of developments from the Ontario Cannabis Stores as well:

https://lcbocannabisupdates.com/upda...board-members/

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UPDATE: ONTARIO CANNABIS STORE APPOINTS PRESIDENT, IDENTIFIES FIRST ADDRESSES FOR STORES, ISSUES PRODUCT CALL FOR CANNABIS AND ACCESSORIES, APPOINTS TWO NEW BOARD MEMBERS
April 11th, 2018
sorry, $800B should have been $800M... i cannot edit the post.
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Old 12 April 2018, 02:29 PM   #824
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Still a lot of green
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Old 13 April 2018, 05:49 AM   #825
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it's an extrapolation of 200,000kg at $4/gram wholesale.. 200,000kg is stated, $4/g is a reasonable wholesale value. This likely represents a floor of sorts.

lots of developments from the Ontario Cannabis Stores as well:

https://lcbocannabisupdates.com/upda...board-members/



sorry, $800B should have been $800M... i cannot edit the post.
Colorado is already under $3/gram. Washington state hit a new low of ~$1.75/gram recently. That's without widespread legalization. This is exactly why I got out of the industry as soon as I had actually done some independent assessment. It's a commodity crop that isn't terribly expensive to grow. With wide-spread legalization, I could honestly see wholesale prices falling to $1/gram or less.

The companies worth investing in are the ones that won't rely on wholesale sales for revenue (e.g. Canopy/MedReleaf, I dont pretend to know them all though - easier money to be made elsewhere in markets). The Canopy CEO has said this publicly in interviews; there's no money in it for the wholesale players. Anyone touting capacity as a buying opportunity doesn't see the big picture, IMHO.

I said a few days ago that I still like the industry but will wait to invest until it is clear who the real companies are. I may miss some gains but I will be protected over the long run.

I think a lot of us bought into this in the run up to the holidays and, given other things going on, didn't do a lot of research. Most have lost some money. I fall into that category. I've already made it all back playing in the sectors I know well, though.

Proceed with caution. That's my only point.
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Old 13 April 2018, 10:02 AM   #826
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Fair point. However, many supply deals have confirmed pricing. FIRE confirmed a sizable supply deal with Namaste at a $6/g wholesale price. All figures CDN.

Note that the Canadian markets are regulated and centrally controlled. The provinces own distribution and will allow price to enable employment opportunities. It's quasi-government jobs in that the government is the major client.
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Old 13 April 2018, 01:25 PM   #827
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Fair point. However, many supply deals have confirmed pricing. FIRE confirmed a sizable supply deal with Namaste at a $6/g wholesale price. All figures CDN.

Note that the Canadian markets are regulated and centrally controlled. The provinces own distribution and will allow price to enable employment opportunities. It's quasi-government jobs in that the government is the major client.
Yes, but the consumer still has to buy, and if they price it too high there are other places to get it.
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Old 14 April 2018, 04:25 AM   #828
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Trump gives CO Senator Cory Gardner his word that he will not pursue a crackdown on MJ in CO. This may spur federal legislation to legalize...possibly. Stocks going nuts. Just bought 200k shares of MPX Bioceuticals to have a perpetual option on U.S. MMJ. Check it out.

Okay, I never buy penny stocks...until this one. :-0

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.824ce418261b
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Old 14 April 2018, 04:30 AM   #829
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whoah. ummm, stocks are looking good today.
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Old 14 April 2018, 04:38 AM   #830
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whoah. ummm, stocks are looking good today.
The John Boehner support and Washington Post report about the Trump - Sen. Gardner report would be huge. Two U.S. focused companies: MPX Bioceuticals and Liberty Health Sciences...both inexpensive stocks. Aphria is jumping more than most other major MJ stocks due to their continued large ownership of Liberty. This is a nice catalyst!
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Old 14 April 2018, 04:42 AM   #831
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The John Boehner support and Washington Post report about the Trump - Sen. Gardner report would be huge. Two U.S. focused companies: MPX Bioceuticals and Liberty Health Sciences...both inexpensive stocks. Aphria is jumping more than most other major MJ stocks due to their continued large ownership of Liberty. This is a nice catalyst!
Whatever it is, I will take it.

Amazing how truly all the speculation is often times deemed useless and something like a tweet, or a conversation, or something else that creates a buzz drives stocks.

Tempted to put some money into the penny stocks you mention. But I am staying the course. Not adding or subtracting.
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Old 14 April 2018, 05:39 AM   #832
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More disturbing news regarding the black market in CA. Criminals will always cut corners at the expense of making a buck. Yet another reason for legalization, regulation, and the impending crack down on illicit black market thugs.

http://420intel.com/articles/2018/04...arijuana-grows
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Old 14 April 2018, 08:34 AM   #833
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More disturbing news regarding the black market in CA. Criminals will always cut corners at the expense of making a buck. Yet another reason for legalization, regulation, and the impending crack down on illicit black market thugs.

http://420intel.com/articles/2018/04...arijuana-grows
That's what I was referring to earlier. The company I work for cleans up the infrastructure and chemicals from these sites (small part of our business), but they don't have us sample the soils and determine if the soil needs remediation. They use excess fertilizers and insecticides to boost production so they can get in/out with as few of site visits as possible to avoid drawing attention. We generally have to hike in an hour or more carrying our gear and then use a helicopter to lift the waste out.
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Old 14 April 2018, 09:12 AM   #834
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I hope this will be the catalyst that finally tips another big bull run. There has been a lot of good de-risking news these past couple weeks.

I'm going to try and remember to pull more off the table on the next run up and get a Porsche or Patek. Then again, maybe I'll just keep riding it out. Going very long.
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Old 14 April 2018, 09:49 AM   #835
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The dead cat bounce I mentioned. Weed and Aph traded back to the levels in the 10 day range . Weed needs to power through $33 to resume up trend. Aph still broken technically.
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Old 14 April 2018, 10:02 AM   #836
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More disturbing news regarding the black market in CA. Criminals will always cut corners at the expense of making a buck. Yet another reason for legalization, regulation, and the impending crack down on illicit black market thugs.

http://420intel.com/articles/2018/04...arijuana-grows
Feds creating toxic waste sites seems a case of pot calling kettle black. This is government selling by a school so who are the crims
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item....-C:OGI-2593391
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Old 16 April 2018, 01:32 AM   #837
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Saw this on newsy tv this morning...

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Old 16 April 2018, 02:12 PM   #838
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Just deschedule it already federally. Legalize. Tax. Regulate. Pretty simple.
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Old 16 April 2018, 11:46 PM   #839
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nice news from APH Q3 report this morning. 100% increasein sales, $0.08 EPS. on the call Vic said they will release their retail brands this week.

Maricann also had a big license come through today and a big acquisition late last week.

Canopy announced a doubling of their overall capacity with a license last week and acquired 100% of a small European distributor.

Hopefully this will be a nice steady green week to get us on our way back to where we were.
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Old 17 April 2018, 02:24 AM   #840
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nice news from APH Q3 report this morning. 100% increasein sales, $0.08 EPS. on the call Vic said they will release their retail brands this week.

Maricann also had a big license come through today and a big acquisition late last week.

Canopy announced a doubling of their overall capacity with a license last week and acquired 100% of a small European distributor.

Hopefully this will be a nice steady green week to get us on our way back to where we were.
Here is the fine print
Gross profit for the second quarter was $8,570, compared with $3,569 in the same quarter in the prior year and $6,202 in the previous quarter. The increase in gross profit from the prior year is consistent with the much larger patient base over the prior year, improvement in the cost per gram metrics, the one month of sales from Broken Coast offset and the increase in the fair value adjustment for biological assets.

Net income for the three months ended Feb. 28, 2018, was $12,945 or eight cents per share as opposed to a net income of $4,950 or four cents per share in the same period of the prior year, an increase of more than 161 per cent. The increase in net income relates to the continued strength of Aphria's investment portfolio, including its realized gain on sale of its non-escrowed shares in Liberty Health Sciences Ltd. in the quarter.
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