Why do APs not hold their value as well or appreciate like Rolex or Patek?

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by benlee

Exactly. This thread makes my head spin. It reads like some bloomberg financial commentary more than TRF watch discussion.

I have enough of bloomberg during my working hours. Seriously, I prefer to enjoy wearing my watches rather than getting obsessed with the monetary value of what is essentially a luxury purchase past, present and future. So let these guys continue

No kidding. I buy watches to enjoy them. I understand that I will lose some money if I decide to sell them. It's not a cheap hobby and I accept the costs associated with it. For those who are too risk averse on future values, they need to maybe find a new hobby IMHO. I'm not trying to be an arse. Just being real about it.

[SMD]

I only focus on realized losses, and since I don't sell, I am up on all of mine! But (only) slightly more seriously, for me its fun money. If I lost my entire watch collection tomorrow the impact would be immaterial so best not to focus on the ups and downs and instead on whether I still enjoy the watch. If so it stays. Simple.

[improviz]

My point was not to have a Bloomberg-like discussion due to my being motivated by some deep-seated fear of losing a few thousand dollars (thought I was clear about this), but rather to illustrate that the belief that the PM Rolexes are keeping valuation while AP is losing it hand over fist was, shall we say, more than a bit over pessimistic.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by SMD

I only focus on realized losses, and since I don't sell, I am up on all of mine! But (only) slightly more seriously, for me its fun money. If I lost my entire watch collection tomorrow the impact would be immaterial so best not to focus on the ups and downs and instead on whether I still enjoy the watch. If so it stays. Simple.

Well if this is the case, then yes, it doesn't matter. Ideally everyone should be like that, but most people are not.

[racer24]

I buy my watches with anticipation of losing 10-20% just like buying new cars. It doesn't bother me if I lose few thousand on a watch when I resell. the only thing that bothers me is that AP discounts are all over the place from 10-15% to 30+%.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by racer24

I buy my watches with anticipation of losing 10-20% just like buying new cars. It doesn't bother me if I lose few thousand on a watch when I resell. the only thing that bothers me is that AP discounts are all over the place from 10-15% to 30+%.

Anyone saying they got over 30% off brand new is full of sh** unless it was an undesirable watch sitting for like a year or 2. Even then I don't think it would happen. As far as me though, I buy my watches trying to keep my max loss to no more than 2k. I switch in and out of watches so buying right is very important for me. Never know when I'll get bored and want something else. Unfortunately I don't have the money to just go out and buy 5 of them and keep them lol.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by jem7v

Anyone saying they got over 30% off brand new is full of sh** unless it was an undesirable watch sitting for like a year or 2. Even then I don't think it would happen. As far as me though, I buy my watches trying to keep my max loss to no more than 2k. I switch in and out of watches so buying right is very important for me. Never know when I'll get bored and want something else. Unfortunately I don't have the money to just go out and buy 5 of them and keep them lol.

ignorance is bliss. on PM models an adept buyer can get a popular model 30% off of MSRP brand new.

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by Etschell

ignorance is bliss. on PM models an adept buyer can get a popular model 30% off of MSRP brand new.

lol really? Do share. And don't tell me it was on the platinum model after they cut the price 30%

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by jem7v

lol really? Do share. And don't tell me it was on the platinum model after they cut the price 30%

White 15400s can be had for 27 percent off msrp.....sorry 3 percent miss

[dexvd]

I would like to hear more on these points. I was under the impression that AP had fairly limited production.

Does AP have poor after service relative to Rolex that may hurt its value? After the horror stories I've heard of IWC, I'm not sure I would ever buy one regardless of how affordable a lot of their watches are pre-owned.

It seems the market is slow for new watches but my worries are fuelled by how different older Rolexes have suddenly become cool and shot up and price. As example the Fat Lady GMT and the 16520 Daytona. Most BNIB prices are too expensive for me anyway so thats why I am so focused on the pre-owned price, anything that rises in price beyond its new price is probably never going to be affordable for me. I feel like I have a bit of an understanding of the Rolex pre-owned vintage market (not that I can make predictions but that I can make sense of things looking retrospectively) but really lack a feel for the AP pre-owned and vintage market.

Originally Posted by texex91

This ping pong thread is giving me a headache.

It's simple:

- AP overproduced
- Market is slow
- They have to shove stuff out the back door (as do AD's)
- Secondary market gets killed

And here we are...it's pretty simple.

Still a great watch in my book and great time to buy if you want to hold for a long time.

Another thing I was looking for was maybe some examples of steel Royal Oaks starting to appreciate giving me that sense of urgency that I shouldn't wait to buy like I have with some of the older Rolex watches I like. They may be going for a third of what a pre-owned 15450 right now but if their price is going to go up over the next few years while the 15450ST price is going to soften like the 14790ST or the 4100 it makes me think that I should buy the Rolexes first.

Originally Posted by jem7v

I think OP is trying to accomplish 2 things. He doesn't want to buy a watch that is going to lose massive amounts of money SHOULD he ever want to resell it. The reason for this is probably because he isn't bat sh** crazy over any of them. I understand this. While I love AP and Patek, the ones in my price range under 40k are probably none I'd keep forever. So I'd like to know my loss should I choose to sell is minimal.

To his second point, he has an order in which he wants to purchase watches. He wants to prioritize that by getting the ones in his price range early on, because some are going up in value and may go out of his range.

To answer his question, I don't think he has to worry about any AP's increasing in value and going out of his price range unless he is looking at the racing edition ones. So the TI schumacher would be something he could worry about. It could be 40-50k when it comes out but now is like 60k. If my budget was only 50k and I got a 15400 today to get the TI schumacher tomorrow, well I can't afford it anymore if it went 10k out of my budget. So the smart choice would be get the appreciating watch today, and get the common one tomorrow.

[m0c021]

I don't know about you but it looks like 15300 has been increasing in price on the used market. Very steadily too. Just grabbed one recently but sure wish I could have gotten one back when it was in production.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by Etschell

White 15400s can be had for 27 percent off msrp.....sorry 3 percent miss

over 30% is more than a 3% miss .

[jem7v]

Originally Posted by dexvd

I would like to hear more on these points. I was under the impression that AP had fairly limited production.

Does AP have poor after service relative to Rolex that may hurt its value? After the horror stories I've heard of IWC, I'm not sure I would ever buy one regardless of how affordable a lot of their watches are pre-owned.

It seems the market is slow for new watches but my worries are fuelled by how different older Rolexes have suddenly become cool and shot up and price. As example the Fat Lady GMT and the 16520 Daytona. Most BNIB prices are too expensive for me anyway so thats why I am so focused on the pre-owned price, anything that rises in price beyond its new price is probably never going to be affordable for me. I feel like I have a bit of an understanding of the Rolex pre-owned vintage market (not that I can make predictions but that I can make sense of things looking retrospectively) but really lack a feel for the AP pre-owned and vintage market.



Another thing I was looking for was maybe some examples of steel Royal Oaks starting to appreciate giving me that sense of urgency that I shouldn't wait to buy like I have with some of the older Rolex watches I like. They may be going for a third of what a pre-owned 15450 right now but if their price is going to go up over the next few years while the 15450ST price is going to soften like the 14790ST or the 4100 it makes me think that I should buy the Rolexes first.

Go buy either of the openworked models of the royal oak. They will appreciate eventually.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by dexvd

I would like to hear more on these points. I was under the impression that AP had fairly limited production.

I laid out the facts already.

I think you need to stick with your vintage Rolex and call it a day.

Take care and best of luck on your Rolex ventures.

[improviz]

Originally Posted by texex91

I laid out the facts already.

I think you need to stick with your vintage Rolex and call it a day.

Take care and best of luck on your Rolex ventures.

Amen to that.

[TOlsen]

I'm surprised that there is no mention of the 15202st in this thread.

[321Forever]

This has been an interesting read, as it hits at the heart of the purchasing experience for some: justification of a purchase based on retained value. We aren't all watch flippers, here.

I, for one, have taken ROI into consideration with some purchases. Usually, it's for the watches that are most expensive, for me... "I know this costs a lot of dough, but it will hold its value..."

I would be less likely to buy the #speedytuesday if I thought the value would sink. It also feels foolish to me to buy a watch at what you thought was a great price and only see its value plummet (e.g., PP 5227G), even if you love the watch.

And speaking of the 15202ST, it's on my wishlist...

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by dexvd

I would like to hear more on these points. I was under the impression that AP had fairly limited production.

Does AP have poor after service relative to Rolex that may hurt its value? After the horror stories I've heard of IWC, I'm not sure I would ever buy one regardless of how affordable a lot of their watches are pre-owned.

It seems the market is slow for new watches but my worries are fuelled by how different older Rolexes have suddenly become cool and shot up and price. As example the Fat Lady GMT and the 16520 Daytona. Most BNIB prices are too expensive for me anyway so thats why I am so focused on the pre-owned price, anything that rises in price beyond its new price is probably never going to be affordable for me. I feel like I have a bit of an understanding of the Rolex pre-owned vintage market (not that I can make predictions but that I can make sense of things looking retrospectively) but really lack a feel for the AP pre-owned and vintage market.



Another thing I was looking for was maybe some examples of steel Royal Oaks starting to appreciate giving me that sense of urgency that I shouldn't wait to buy like I have with some of the older Rolex watches I like. They may be going for a third of what a pre-owned 15450 right now but if their price is going to go up over the next few years while the 15450ST price is going to soften like the 14790ST or the 4100 it makes me think that I should buy the Rolexes first.

There is way too much analytics there my friend. Just buy what you like, negotiate the best deal you can, and call it a day. Don't need the stress of trying to speculate future watch prices. Good luck!

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by TOlsen

I'm surprised that there is no mention of the 15202st in this thread.

Agreed, Comparing a 15400 to a 5711 is not a fair comparison. 5711 and 15202 is a more fair comparison as is the 15400 and 5167.

[Vaxe]

Depends on the model, there are unloved references across all brands - even PP and Rolex. It's not rare for Rolex to also discount 30% on certain PMs - again it depends, can't really generalize.

AP produces some solid pieces and if you're worried about the brand becoming non-existent, it wont. Now if you're spending that much on a Bell&Ross or Graham, then you should be worried.

Buy whatever AP you like and enjoy it.

[Royalex]

They spend too much money on celebs to wear their watches.

[masyv6]

Originally Posted by Defiancekofb

Yes it is best not to comment on Hublot. Like ever.

That's for sure!

Originally Posted by benlee

Exactly. This thread makes my head spin. It reads like some bloomberg financial commentary more than TRF watch discussion.

I have enough of bloomberg during my working hours. Seriously, I prefer to enjoy wearing my watches rather than getting obsessed with the monetary value of what is essentially a luxury purchase past, present and future. So let these guys continue

If one focuses on the money spent instead of enjoying the watch, they've missed the point!!

Originally Posted by texex91

I laid out the facts already.

I think you need to stick with your vintage Rolex and call it a day.

Take care and best of luck on your Rolex ventures.

Vintage Rolex is such a rabbit hole that I'm surprised a collector stumbled into the AP forum

[yyzpam]

Originally Posted by Royalex

They spend too much money on celebs to wear their watches.

Thank you for your insightful input.

[jon_jon]

To answer OPs question about AP watches (or Rolex or Patek) holding value, it is simple economics - supply vs demand. If the supply exceeds demand, price goes down. If demand exceeds supply, then price goes up. Of course this is overly simplified.

However as many people already mentioned, AP overproduced many of their watches. Even the popular 15400ST can be found everywhere - at AD's and pre-owned stores. That is why people are getting 25%+ discount at ADs.

On the other hand, the 15202ST does not have a huge supply and demand is still strong, so new watch prices will be very close to suggested retail and re-sale pricing will be fairly robust (at least for now).

Someone mentioned the 15300ST. If you bought this watch new 10+ years ago and are selling it now, you will have made a decent profit.

As they say in investing, past performance is not indicative of future returns. However we learn from the past so as to not make the same mistake in the future.

[LPPP]

I think the huge servicing cost is a major turn off. Some shared as much as 20% of the cost of the new watch. So if you get a pre-owned that needs to be serviced, pls factor the cost of it.

And then. Is it worth paying so much to service a non-inhouse chrono module?

[masterserg]

This thread gives me a headache.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

To answer OPs question about AP watches (or Rolex or Patek) holding value, it is simple economics - supply vs demand. If the supply exceeds demand, price goes down. If demand exceeds supply, then price goes up. Of course this is overly simplified.

However as many people already mentioned, AP overproduced many of their watches. Even the popular 15400ST can be found everywhere - at AD's and pre-owned stores. That is why people are getting 25%+ discount at ADs.

On the other hand, the 15202ST does not have a huge supply and demand is still strong, so new watch prices will be very close to suggested retail and re-sale pricing will be fairly robust (at least for now).

Someone mentioned the 15300ST. If you bought this watch new 10+ years ago and are selling it now, you will have made a decent profit.

As they say in investing, past performance is not indicative of future returns. However we learn from the past so as to not make the same mistake in the future.

202 does not have a huge supply in UK, I've only ever seen the OR, and prices are thus quite strong, like a Subc, as to your point about dem/sup. Also 300 prices have been going up crazily in the last year and a half, from 7K to a 10K average, and so it's very similar to the ss Daytona, also discoed. So popular models are similarly priced no matter what the brand, it is market conditions that dictate.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by LPPP

I think the huge servicing cost is a major turn off. Some shared as much as 20% of the cost of the new watch. So if you get a pre-owned that needs to be serviced, pls factor the cost of it.

And then. Is it worth paying so much to service a non-inhouse chrono module?

This is nonsense.

Unfortunately, the AP sub forum has lately become infested with people who readily offer their opinion irrespective of whether said opinion bears any relationship to reality.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by SMD

Unfortunately, the AP sub forum has lately become infested with people who readily offer their opinion irrespective of whether said opinion bears any relationship to reality.

Agree...

[m0c021]

15300 is definitely going for a bit more than 10k at the moment. DavidSW has a white dial listed at 14k. Isn't the standard service for 3120 movement around 1k? Which is less than 10% of MSRP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro