the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Very sobering read describing what a respiratory therapist in New Orleans is seeing.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a...young-patients

Very sobering, very scary. I expect we will be on lockdown shortly.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by jatco

..Yeah..thanks to Trump who at 15 reported cases said it'll go away.
Look at the scenario now. Catastrophic...

What dont you guys understand nothing political in this thread Know matter how small I have clearly stated in this thread it will not be tolerated in any form.So you will receive infraction points,next time any member might not be so lucky.

[dimag333]

Gov Cuomo says 15% hospitalization in ny, 40-80% might end up being infected, anyone want to crunch those numbers? 500k n95 masks headed to Long Island, things happening, fingers crossed this coming week things start becoming more positive health wise

Gov Cuomo also says the cases in west Chester are decreasing not increasing.

6k ventslitors on way in and they are looking into each one being able to serve multiple patients.

steve

[statsman]

So, Switzerland is reporting 6,000 cases now. In a country about 1/38 the population of the US, that’s a lot. It would be the equivalent of 230k cases in the US. How is their medical system hanging in (I understood them to have a really good system).

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by statsman

So, Switzerland is reporting 6,000 cases now. In a country about 1/38 the population of the US, that’s a lot. It would be the equivalent of 230k cases in the US. How is their medical system hanging in (I understood them to have a really good system).

Possibly a more healthy population so hospitalizations aren’t as high? It was released that almost all deaths in nj had diabetes and a heart condition, forget where I read that

steve

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Very sobering read describing what a respiratory therapist in New Orleans is seeing.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a...young-patients

Yes, very sobering and rough way to check out.

I have a niece who is a respiratory therapist with a new baby and I can't imagine what she is about to go through.

[Fleetlord]

Here come the "me too" layoffs that I was expecting to happen.

https://wkow.com/2020/03/20/some-sub...ack-mid-april/

'The company was laying off those other 118 employees indefinitely because it doesn't expect the market to fully recover after the pandemic'.

Now they had already scheduled some temp work force reduction due to a factory move, but I guess they REALLY wanted to permanently cut some heads anyway,so might as well do it now.

The luxury appliance market has been very hawt for years...Guess 10plus years of growth and profits gets wiped out by a few months of slack...

Now i understand no business is just in business to employ people and they absolutely must maximize their profitability, but for some reason i feel layoffs such as this one are just a "me too" move...since everyone else is doing it, we might as well too!

[mountainjogger]

Article quoting John Hopkins: elective surgeries need to stop nationwide.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ive-surgeries/

Stay safe.

[statsman]

Switzerland now has the highest reported infection rate per capita. Now, I am easily persuaded that others are worse, and their rate is highest because they do a very good job of testing.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by fmc000

I live in Lombardy, where we had the first Italian cases and where most of the deaths are. For some strange reason in the Como province where I live we had few cases but in Brescia and especially Bergamo they were hit pretty bad. They had to use some Army trucks to ship dead bodies because the local crematory ovens were not able to keep up with the number of deaths.

Inviato dal mio SM-T719 utilizzando Tapatalk

Stay safe


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blansky]

There is always the law of unintended consequences on decisions made, but one has to wonder if the Universal Basic Income will get a serious look or a foothold into the psyche as this crisis continues and people have been shut out of work.

It has been talked about on a theoretical level over the past few years, but it may start to be a solution to the massive unemployment that will probably come now that this pandemic is pretty much a world wide problem.

[statsman]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Here come the "me too" layoffs that I was expecting to happen.

https://wkow.com/2020/03/20/some-sub...ack-mid-april/

'The company was laying off those other 118 employees indefinitely because it doesn't expect the market to fully recover after the pandemic'.

Now they had already scheduled some temp work force reduction due to a factory move, but I guess they REALLY wanted to permanently cut some heads anyway,so might as well do it now.

The luxury appliance market has been very hawt for years...Guess 10plus years of growth and profits gets wiped out by a few months of slack...

Now i understand no business is just in business to employ people and they absolutely must maximize their profitability, but for some reason i feel layoffs such as this one are just a "me too" move...since everyone else is doing it, we might as well too!

In the US, we need to remember the WARN act, for protection in times of mass layoffs.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by Blansky

There is always the law of unintended consequences on decisions made, but one has to wonder if the Universal Basic Income will get a serious look or a foothold into the psyche as this crisis continues and people have been shut out of work.

It has been talked about on a theoretical level over the past few years, but it may start to be a solution to the massive unemployment that will probably come now that this pandemic is pretty much a world wide problem.

That’s inevitable, I think it needs to be closer to $3000 per person though and health care. Above some income level you could reduce the payment.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[joeychitwood]

Yesterday was Match Day for graduating medical students, the day when they find out into which residency program they were accepted. So many fresh faced, happy young doctors on Twitter and Instagram. I can’t imagine what they will face entering the worst year of their lives, internship PGY-1, as they walk into the face of the pandemic. #MedTwitterMatchDay

[statsman]

Originally Posted by Blansky

There is always the law of unintended consequences on decisions made, but one has to wonder if the Universal Basic Income will get a serious look or a foothold into the psyche as this crisis continues and people have been shut out of work.

It has been talked about on a theoretical level over the past few years, but it may start to be a solution to the massive unemployment that will probably come now that this pandemic is pretty much a world wide problem.

Systems that reward economic productivity get more economic productivity. Systems that don’t reward economic productivity get much less economic productivity. It would be difficult to think of a worse response to a recession.

[Bryant Park]

It is from our local nationally ranked state of the art hospital. I provide this with no bias or intent but providing a real time sense of how quickly and dramatically this crisis is intensifying in some places.

I know several doctors who are already experiencing large volumes of very sick patients, ill colleagues and the need to reuse and or ration safety equipment. I hope and pray other communities are sparred it.

[jatco]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Ok. I redacted my quote

As did I

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by statsman

Systems that reward economic productivity get more economic productivity. Systems that don’t reward economic productivity get much less economic productivity. It would be difficult to think of a worse response to a recession.

All that is probably true but theories don't pay the bills.

The UBI started being taken seriously when the talk of AI taking over the workplace and 40% job losses were predicted in the near future. And a large percentage were white collar jobs.

When mass worker layoff which are predicted in the next few months and nobody has a clue when this stay at home policy will end, one wonders of the UBI will be looked at, at some level.

Obviously when the pandemic is over things will get back to some sort of normalcy, but when people are essentially locked out of work, and told to stay home, economic theories don't really apply to a mandated marketplace.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by padi56

What dont you guys understand nothing political in this thread Know matter how small I have clearly stated in this thread it will not be tolerated in any form.So you will receive infraction points,next time any member might not be so lucky.

Thanks PADI, and in case no one else caught it, I loved your “Flushing” joke in the other thread.

[hcivic91]

Have been following the thread for sometime and wanted to get my $0.02 in.

The US will lockdown for a couple of weeks to bend the curve but there is no clarity on the end game so I thought I’d provide my insight. While we all hope for a vaccine, it is treatment/therapy that will solve this mess. To some degree we are all scared, for ourselves or older/vulnerable family. We saw the government begin to sew the seeds of therapeutic drugs this week, this will continue. Even if those drugs are even mildly helpful they will help us all think more rationally and remove a lot of the fear. This is the near-term end game.

This will get things moving again and it must. The medium-run economic cost is just to great for it to not. That is why I say that even if the treatment is mild it will be harolded and will break the panic. This along with warmer weather will bring relief. In the short-run the rollercoaster will continue for all of us but this will subside and this is the out we will be given.

Until then my prayers to all impacted including medical workers and grocers. Thank you all.

[statsman]

My family prays for Italy every night. They had 800 die in the last 24 hours. It turns out that even treatable cases are lethal if you lack capacity (respirators) to treat them. NYC is where Italy was in early March. Seattle is a little behind. Let’s see if the US can manage any better.

[superdog]

I was told, not conformed, but by a friend that New Rochelle cases are going down.

Maybe containment works and will be effective.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by superdog

I was told, not conformed, but by a friend that New Rochelle cases are going down.

Maybe containment works and will be effective.

See my prev post, Cuomo said they are going down. On another note I decided to check out the sba app. Holy crap you basically need a full business and personal audit to even apply! Crazy!

steve

[77T]

Originally Posted by dimag333

See my prev post, Cuomo said they are going down. On another note I decided to check out the sba app. Holy crap you basically need a full business and personal audit to even apply! Crazy!



steve

Yes the SBA still has the tight submission data requirements. I don’t expect that part to change after the scams that took place during recovery from last recession.

Auditors should be fairly available. It’s like a root canal though - the current financial pain is transferred to the SBA pain. But if the fundamentals are sound, you’ll prosper later.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by 77T

Yes the SBA still has the tight submission data requirements. I don’t expect that part to change after the scams that took place during recovery from last recession.

Auditors should be fairly available. It’s like a root canal though - the current financial pain is transferred to the SBA pain. But if the fundamentals are sound, you’ll prosper later.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I don’t need the cash after a few smart moves to keep me afloat, but yeah if I do, holy cow! I’m glad they are in place for sure, Sandy was a free for all with a huge amount of fraud.

steve

[77T]

Originally Posted by dimag333

I don’t need the cash after a few smart moves to keep me afloat, but yeah if I do, holy cow! I’m glad they are in place for sure, Sandy was a free for all with a huge amount of fraud.



steve

Yep, Sandy, too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by hcivic91

Have been following the thread for sometime and wanted to get my $0.02 in.

The US will lockdown for a couple of weeks to bend the curve but there is no clarity on the end game so I thought I’d provide my insight. While we all hope for a vaccine, it is treatment/therapy that will solve this mess. To some degree we are all scared, for ourselves or older/vulnerable family. We saw the government begin to sew the seeds of therapeutic drugs this week, this will continue. Even if those drugs are even mildly helpful they will help us all think more rationally and remove a lot of the fear. This is the near-term end game.

This will get things moving again and it must. The medium-run economic cost is just to great for it to not. That is why I say that even if the treatment is mild it will be harolded and will break the panic. This along with warmer weather will bring relief. In the short-run the rollercoaster will continue for all of us but this will subside and this is the out we will be given.

Until then my prayers to all impacted including medical workers and grocers. Thank you all.

Good Post.

[mountainjogger]

The Hammer and the dance

This is an interesting read. The author is not an epidemiologist. However, he has collated at lot different models that I have not seen before.

These models challenge the economic cost argument against of more aggressive initial measures. Measures that we have not yet had in the US and UK. And argues that the cost will be far greater with half measures we are seeing, both the the healthcare system, overall mortality rates from Covid-19 and collateral deaths.

Food for thought.

Appreciate any input from doctors.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

The Hammer and the dance

This is an interesting read. The author is not an epidemiologist. However, he has collated at lot different models that I have not seen before.

These models challenge the economic cost argument against of more aggressive initial measures. Measures that we have not yet had in the US and UK. And argues that the cost will be far greater with half measures we are seeing, both the the healthcare system, overall mortality rates from Covid-19 and collateral deaths.

Food for thought.

Appreciate any input from doctors.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

Simple,stay home .If you dont see another person ,they cant infect you and vice versa .Isolation .Droplet the biggest chance of infection
Mask, if you have to go out
Hands,keep clean .Frequently
Dont touch the face .

Flattening the curve so not overrun the health system .
Also,buys time for the future vaccine development .
Economic fall-out severe .Worldwide

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Simple,stay home .If you dont see another person ,they cant infect you and vice versa .Isolation .Droplet the biggest chance of infection
Mask, if you have to go out
Hands,keep clean .Frequently
Dont touch the face .

Flattening the curve so not overrun the health system .
Also,buys time for the future vaccine development .
Economic fall-out severe .Worldwide

Agreed. I am most interested in two posts argued by the article.

1. That a hammer approach works quicker and is therefore less damaging to the economy.

2. That without the hammer approach, higher mortaility numbers are possible than we have been discussing. As well, as higher numbers from collateral deaths from other causes because of the heath system overload.

Stay safe.