the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Agreed. I am most interested in two posts argued by the article.

1. That a hammer approach works quicker and is therefore less damaging to the economy.

2. That without the hammer approach, higher mortaility numbers are possible than we have been discussing. As well, as higher numbers from collateral deaths from other causes because of the heath system overload.

Stay safe.

How long? If you had to guess I mean.

[TswaneNguni]

PPE .Personal Protection Equipment
Without full PPE it is not fair on the health care professional to treat you .
The health care professional will get a higher viral load due to multiple exposures and end up sicker than the patient that needs treatment ! 17 deaths under doctors in Italy .

Governments,get your act together !!! Make a plan !!

To treat the patient is easy,to be quite frank,because there is actually so little available that works or may work .Good outcome on patients that reach ventilation stage from viral pneumonia looks very unlikely .
Italy and China have shown what should be avoided ...Ibuprofen and other NSAIDs.Cortisone also .
Patients on ACE inhibitors for hypertension do badly .

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

The Hammer and the dance

This is an interesting read. The author is not an epidemiologist. However, he has collated at lot different models that I have not seen before.

These models challenge the economic cost argument against of more aggressive initial measures. Measures that we have not yet had in the US and UK. And argues that the cost will be far greater with half measures we are seeing, both the the healthcare system, overall mortality rates from Covid-19 and collateral deaths.

Food for thought.

Appreciate any input from doctors.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

The one sentence that stands out to me like a sore thumb:

It’s a matter of discipline, execution, and how much the population abides by the rules.

The problem here is, enough people are not taking this seriously that the strategy of suppression is entirely undermined from the start. Unfortunately I think it might take the sight of a lot of carnage on the evening news before everybody is convinced enough to buy in.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The one sentence that stands out to me like a sore thumb:



The problem here is, enough people are not taking this seriously that the strategy of suppression is entirely undermined from the start. Unfortunately I think it might take the sight of a lot of carnage on the evening news before everybody is convinced enough to buy in.

Well,thats the problem ,"The Population " .Everybody stays home and avoid people ,the virus CANNOT spread ! The fire burns itself out .

I still get stupid questions insinuating its not that bad .I think to myself ,what ? You missed the news ??

[TswaneNguni]

I find the slow response and lack of preparedness in the USA disturbing .They had China and Italy as warnings.
Its not a political comment,its a medical point .
I have N95 masks,my colleagues in the States not and the masks are made in the USA !!!!

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

PPE .Personal Protection Equipment
Without full PPE it is not fair on the health care professional to treat you .
The health care professional will get a higher viral load due to multiple exposures and end up sicker than the patient that needs treatment ! 17 deaths under doctors in Italy .

Governments,get your act together !!! Make a plan !!

To treat the patient is easy,to be quite frank,because there is actually so little available that works or may work .Good outcome on patients that reach ventilation stage from viral pneumonia looks very unlikely .
Italy and China have shown what should be avoided ...Ibuprofen and other NSAIDs.Cortisone also .
Patients on ACE inhibitors for hypertension do badly .

Could you or someone else with medical knowledge explain why a higher viral load is worse ?

Is that 17 doctors dead in Italy ? If so that’s truly sad sad news and equally scary.

From a non medical knowledge perspective I wouldn’t have thought the amount of virus made so much difference as it replicated itself once in ones body anyway and once you developed immunity the amount that comes in could be handled.

Or is it a case that just a huge initial amount of virus quickly overwhelms the body’s immune response and you don’t ever stand a chance.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Burlington

Or is it a case that just a huge initial amount of virus quickly overwhelms the body’s immune response and you don’t ever stand a chance.

Keep your immune system up ! Extra Vit C a good idea .

Stress ,bad for the immune system ! Dont stress ...and how does one do that now !!

Cannabis oil ...good for the immune system (As a side note)

[TswaneNguni]

Ventilators ... every hospital has so many .In ICU .
Then in theatre you have anaesthetic machines ,that can be used as a ventilator only .

Question : How many ventilators have General Motors made now ??

Much talk,little do .

[Maxy]

Last 2 days of death count for Italy are 627 and 793. Well, beyond words. God help us!!

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by hcivic91

Have been following the thread for sometime and wanted to get my $0.02 in.

The US will lockdown for a couple of weeks to bend the curve but there is no clarity on the end game so I thought I’d provide my insight. While we all hope for a vaccine, it is treatment/therapy that will solve this mess. To some degree we are all scared, for ourselves or older/vulnerable family. We saw the government begin to sew the seeds of therapeutic drugs this week, this will continue. Even if those drugs are even mildly helpful they will help us all think more rationally and remove a lot of the fear. This is the near-term end game.

This will get things moving again and it must. The medium-run economic cost is just to great for it to not. That is why I say that even if the treatment is mild it will be harolded and will break the panic. This along with warmer weather will bring relief. In the short-run the rollercoaster will continue for all of us but this will subside and this is the out we will be given.

Until then my prayers to all impacted including medical workers and grocers. Thank you all.

Hopeful about anti-malarial plus Z pack antibiotic.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Maxy

Last 2 days of death count for Italy are 627 and 793. Well, beyond words. God help us!!

Overwhelmed medical system .Those patient didn't get to ventilation ,they just died .

Italy ...
1) Elderly population ,therefore hypertension and many on ACE inhibitors
2) Ibuprofen
3) Cortisone

New virus to man ,trial and error .

Vaccine is what the world needs .Fast.Risk will have to be taken and the FDA mustnt drag their feet .

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

How long? If you had to guess I mean.

Brett:

The graphs are pretty easy to read but there are so many variables, hence the many graphs. China and SK were posed as different examples and different methods. Different time periods.

Author's argument is that it is not the length but the compliance level of the measures.

Stay safe my friend.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Ventilators ... every hospital has so many .In ICU .
Then in theatre you have anaesthetic machines ,that can be used as a ventilator only .

Question : How many ventilators have General Motors made now ??

Much talk,little do .

And how many has Elon Musk?

Agree on the talk. Need resources being pumped into ventilators on the federal level. Hospitals can not be expected to nor do they have the resources to outlay the high cost.

[77T]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

New virus to man ,trial and error .



Vaccine is what the world needs .Fast.Risk will have to be taken and the FDA mustnt drag their feet .

Are you in the US?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The one sentence that stands out to me like a sore thumb:



The problem here is, enough people are not taking this seriously that the strategy of suppression is entirely undermined from the start. Unfortunately I think it might take the sight of a lot of carnage on the evening news before everybody is convinced enough to buy in.

Agree that some in the US are not taking it seriously enough as well.

I have friends who are smart, highly educated business owners, but are not social distancing their employees. Their business are the type where it is very feasible for no cost. I suspect it is because they are worried about the effect on morale and output by admitting to themselves and their employees that there is a problem.

Short sighted in my opinion. And from a purely economic standpoint, they are missing the possible impact of all their employees being quarantined if one tests positive.

Stay safe.

[Moggo]

From what I’ve read flights are still coming in to certain airports such as Heathrow in the U.K. and no testing is being carried out

Have we got to the point where it’s here now so wouldn’t make any difference?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

And how many has Elon Musk?

Agree on the talk. Need resources being pumped into ventilators on the federal level. Hospitals can not be expected to nor do they have the resources to outlay the high cost.

Ventilators : How many of those that needs a ventilator has survived ? I do not know the answer to that . ECMO machines ,how many has survived after being placed on ECMO .No answers in the chaos at the moment.

Isolation will save more lives than ventilators ,at the end.

[alphadweller]

To those who wonder why some US citizens seem slow to react against the virus, it's because it's difficult to measure the seriousness of a threat if it never hit you either directly or indirectly. You see other countries being hit hard but you think they're far away and it won't affect you. I can understand it to a point, it's human nature.

When friends and acquaintances start falling sick, when hospitals are overwhelmed and prioritize patients who stand a better chance to live (no previous pathologies and younger than 75), when the number of infected and deaths grow every day, that's when you realise how serious this is. You then understand the importance of social distancing.

It's a difficult situation. On one hand, if you react very soon, the virus will do much less harm and people will accuse you of halting the economy and threatening businesses for nothing. If on the other hand you wait too long before containment and mitigation, your numbers will soon grow exponentially and hospitals won't be able to cope. To me the sooner you react the better.

It took China 55 days to contain this with draconian measures. Expect at least two to three months in western countries until new cases are no longer reported. That's if action is taken now.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Ventilators : How many of those that needs a ventilator has survived ? I do not know the answer to that . ECMO machines ,how many has survived after being placed on ECMO .No answers in the chaos at the moment.

Isolation will save more lives than ventilators ,at the end.

50% survival if you get to the stage on intubation according to the Sky News piece from Italy.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

To those who wonder why some US citizens seem slow to react against the virus, it's because it's difficult to measure the seriousness of a threat if it never hit you either directly or indirectly. You see other countries being hit hard but you think they're far away and it won't affect you. I can understand it to a point, it's human nature.

When friends and acquaintances start falling sick, when hospitals are overwhelmed and prioritize patients who stand a better chance to live (no previous pathologies and younger than 75), when the number of infected and deaths grow every day, that's when you realise how serious this is. You then understand the importance of social distancing.

It's a difficult situation. On one hand, if you react very soon, the virus will do much less harm and people will accuse you of halting the economy and threatening businesses for nothing. If on the other hand you wait too long before containment and mitigation, your numbers will soon grow exponentially and hospitals won't be able to cope. To me the sooner you react the better.

It took China 55 days to contain this with draconian measures. Expect at least two to three months in western countries until new cases are no longer reported. That's if action is taken now.

Thank you for your thoughtful and experience based words. God Speed!

As someone that is about 10 days behind you in terms of experience I would implore others to stop asking how long but instead focus on doing as much as possible to mitigate the health, societal and economic effects by distancing now!

By the point you are contemplating having to bring a loved one to an ER where there is the potential for there not to be available life saving equipment it will be to late.

[Michigan_State]

Couldn’t agree more, Victor and John

[Fleetlord]

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/n...ts/2890834001/


Glad to see the dude is ok, but it seemed awfully easy for him to get back in the USA considering how sick he said was before he got on the plane.

Yikes!

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

I find the slow response and lack of preparedness in the USA disturbing .They had China and Italy as warnings.
Its not a political comment,its a medical point .
I have N95 masks,my colleagues in the States not and the masks are made in the USA !!!!

Where in the world are you?

steve

[Fleetlord]

I am starting to get concerned about sanitation issues due to the availability of toilet paper.

More and more people I speak to are running out or are out. They can't find any.

It was bit of a joke at first, but people are doing some questionable things to deal with the issue and it's messing up plumbing and sewage systems.

Some stores are limiting purchases (but not all), but will there need to be rationing? Like real WW2 style rationing of some goods like TP and Sanitizer?

Your thoughts?

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I am starting to get concerned about sanitation issues due to the availability of toilet paper.

More and more people I speak to are running out or are out. They can't find any.

It was bit of a joke at first, but people are doing some questionable things to deal with the issue and it's messing up plumbing and sewage systems.

Some stores are limiting purchases (but not all), but will there need to be rationing? Like real WW2 style rationing of some goods like TP and Sanitizer?

Your thoughts?

Can’t believe my shoprite hasn’t had a restock! When this is over, and my kids start going over their friends houses, I swear I’ll loose it if I see piles of tp in their friends houses!

steve

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I am starting to get concerned about sanitation issues due to the availability of toilet paper.

More and more people I speak to are running out or are out. They can't find any.

It was bit of a joke at first, but people are doing some questionable things to deal with the issue and it's messing up plumbing and sewage systems.

Some stores are limiting purchases (but not all), but will there need to be rationing? Like real WW2 style rationing of some goods like TP and Sanitizer?

Your thoughts?

I think rationing is a good idea. Maybe even totally necessary.

[Star Ferry]

my local grocery store had neither toilet paper nor paper towels. Just a few packets of cocktail napkins, as well as some Kleenex.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I am starting to get concerned about sanitation issues due to the availability of toilet paper.

More and more people I speak to are running out or are out. They can't find any.

It was bit of a joke at first, but people are doing some questionable things to deal with the issue and it's messing up plumbing and sewage systems.

Some stores are limiting purchases (but not all), but will there need to be rationing? Like real WW2 style rationing of some goods like TP and Sanitizer?

Your thoughts?

Well being from New York I can tell you some lowlifes are trying to sell hand sanitizer for $25 a bottle in Long Island. I was at Home Depot earlier and this lady in line apparently found a pack of TP. She was delighted as if she had found gold. She said it was returned by a customer and was the only pack of toilet paper in the whole store

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I am starting to get concerned about sanitation issues due to the availability of toilet paper.

More and more people I speak to are running out or are out. They can't find any.

It was bit of a joke at first, but people are doing some questionable things to deal with the issue and it's messing up plumbing and sewage systems.

Some stores are limiting purchases (but not all), but will there need to be rationing? Like real WW2 style rationing of some goods like TP and Sanitizer?

Your thoughts?

I’ve done a number of yoga retreats in areas with minimal plumbing. You could not flush anything but waste. All paper was put in a trash can next to the toilets.

If I run, out of actual TP, I’ll cut shreds of old T-shirt’s or towels or whatever. Put it in the trash and dispose in the outside trash.

Not a permanent solution. But it’ll help for a certain amount of time. Hopefully, long enough.

[Recondope]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I am starting to get concerned about sanitation issues due to the availability of toilet paper.

More and more people I speak to are running out or are out. They can't find any.

It was bit of a joke at first, but people are doing some questionable things to deal with the issue and it's messing up plumbing and sewage systems.

Some stores are limiting purchases (but not all), but will there need to be rationing? Like real WW2 style rationing of some goods like TP and Sanitizer?

Your thoughts?

Someone has a whole load of toilet paper...literally. Saw on the news a few minutes ago that a semi truck was hijacked for 18,000 pounds of toilet paper.