ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
11 May 2024, 08:15 AM | #1 |
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Finally happened with jumbo 50th anniversary
Just saw on Chrono24 a 16202 anniversary go up for 68k… first time seeing a complete set go for under 70k. Happy I haven’t pulled the trigger yet.
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12 May 2024, 06:39 AM | #2 |
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I am waiting for 16202BA to come down below $100k.
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Rolex: 116621, 126333, 126711CHNR, 114060, 116500LN White, 126660 JC, 126710BLNR, 126710BLRO, 116610LV, 126610LN, 126610LV, 116508 YG Green Dial, 124300 Turquoise, 126719BLRO Meteorite dial, 228235 Olive dial ,126755SARU, 116505 RG Black dial, 326934 Blue Sky D. AP: 15451ST Blue, 15500OR w/Bracelet, 14790SA, 14790BA, 26022BC(Salmon) PP: 5524R, 5712G, ALS: Time Zone 136.032, Cartier: WGSA0030, WSSA0061, YG Oct. 2965, Carree 2961, Tank W5000156 Breguet: 7137BA, MontBlanc: 109996" |
13 May 2024, 12:20 AM | #3 |
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4 unworn under 70k at the moment. Good process.
So I think the dealers wil be paying around 60k stil a quick €24k for the flippers
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13 May 2024, 07:25 PM | #4 |
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It feels like stock investing right now… is this the lowest that it’ll go or does it still have room to go down further?
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14 May 2024, 04:45 PM | #5 |
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i think and hope a lot lower at the end of the year.
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14 May 2024, 09:18 PM | #6 |
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It might go a bit lower but it won’t be that much.
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Rolex: 116621, 126333, 126711CHNR, 114060, 116500LN White, 126660 JC, 126710BLNR, 126710BLRO, 116610LV, 126610LN, 126610LV, 116508 YG Green Dial, 124300 Turquoise, 126719BLRO Meteorite dial, 228235 Olive dial ,126755SARU, 116505 RG Black dial, 326934 Blue Sky D. AP: 15451ST Blue, 15500OR w/Bracelet, 14790SA, 14790BA, 26022BC(Salmon) PP: 5524R, 5712G, ALS: Time Zone 136.032, Cartier: WGSA0030, WSSA0061, YG Oct. 2965, Carree 2961, Tank W5000156 Breguet: 7137BA, MontBlanc: 109996" |
14 May 2024, 10:22 PM | #7 |
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15 May 2024, 01:02 AM | #8 | |
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Add to that the fact that AP boutiques usually only offer this watch after a few purchases... Making it that much harder to obtain at retail. My hypothesis is that the secondary price might drop a tiny bit more, before slowly starting to climb again. Not a steep climb, but a slow and steady one... Anyhow, only time will tell! |
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15 May 2024, 01:15 AM | #9 |
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do you do anything on this website besides shit on patek/ap and peoples opinions if they don't align with yours?
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15 May 2024, 02:02 AM | #10 |
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15 May 2024, 03:43 AM | #11 |
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15 May 2024, 04:18 AM | #12 |
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How'd you call this then: "a $36k mass produced SS that is played out will trade 30% below retail."
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AP 15500ST Grey // 26237ST Beast // 26331ST Panda // 15450ST Blue // 77350CE Bucci // 26240CE 50th // 15407ST || Rolex 116520 White // 116710 BLNR // 126200 Blue || Omega Seamaster NTTD // Speedy Tokyo LE "Rising Sun" // Speedy cal. 321 "Ed White" A timeless classic - Winding, ticking, faithful time - Golden crown of trust |
15 May 2024, 04:30 AM | #13 |
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15 May 2024, 04:54 AM | #14 | |
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I doubt very much that the Jumbo will be at $25k on the secondary market any time soon. In the long run, we'll all be dead, but some of us will have enjoyed our watches in the mean time, unlike the OP.
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AP 15500ST Grey // 26237ST Beast // 26331ST Panda // 15450ST Blue // 77350CE Bucci // 26240CE 50th // 15407ST || Rolex 116520 White // 116710 BLNR // 126200 Blue || Omega Seamaster NTTD // Speedy Tokyo LE "Rising Sun" // Speedy cal. 321 "Ed White" A timeless classic - Winding, ticking, faithful time - Golden crown of trust |
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15 May 2024, 07:31 AM | #15 | |
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Quote:
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15 May 2024, 08:46 AM | #16 |
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Apologies - it’s a tough decision to make, unless the $30k premium is couch money. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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AP 15500ST Grey // 26237ST Beast // 26331ST Panda // 15450ST Blue // 77350CE Bucci // 26240CE 50th // 15407ST || Rolex 116520 White // 116710 BLNR // 126200 Blue || Omega Seamaster NTTD // Speedy Tokyo LE "Rising Sun" // Speedy cal. 321 "Ed White" A timeless classic - Winding, ticking, faithful time - Golden crown of trust |
15 May 2024, 09:30 AM | #17 |
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Unless the Royal Oak becomes completely the opposite of fashion (it could of course happen, look at how long it took to catch on), I don't think the jumbo is ever going to be a non secondary premium watch. The only way these watches are allocated (I'd say over 95% of these minus the rare exceptions) are to customers with a diverse portfolio.... And sometimes not all these customers wanted all these watches in their portfolio to begin with working towards the jumbo. All these people have invested into the brand to a certain extent already and it's unrealistic to expect MSRP or less buying it on the secondary. It has very little to do with giving secondary sellers the premium on the watch minus the typical commission rates acting as the intermediary.
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15 May 2024, 03:42 PM | #18 | |
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15 May 2024, 04:42 PM | #19 | |
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15 May 2024, 05:23 PM | #20 | |
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People that had a jumbo allocated at list paid their dues. Most (including myself) will never build that type of portfolio to be allocated one. Hence most including myself does not get to buy a jumbo without a premium because this premium is now a small portion of what it takes to build that portfolio on the secondary market. |
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15 May 2024, 05:32 PM | #21 | |
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And with the first signals from the new CEO, I don't see production volumes being increased significantly any time soon. |
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15 May 2024, 06:03 PM | #22 |
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Previous CEO said that the max number per reference is 1.400.
Jumbo could be even lower than that. Production volumes most likely will remain the same as said by current CEO. So it's hardly a mass produced piece. |
15 May 2024, 07:37 PM | #23 |
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If Jumbo ever went below retail it will mean the normal Royal Oak will be much lower than retail..
The way to get Jumbo right now is to play the game and get it as the 4th or 5th piece minimum. As long as RO popularity is up, doubt it will go under retail anytime soon. Looking at celeb culture and those wearing AP (Travis Scott, Tom Brady, Kevin Hart etc.), the hype is at its peak right now whether you like it or not. And unlike PAM, AP does have some substance and quality to back up the hype. So if you want to wait until it gets below retail it may happen but it will take years.. maybe 10+ years if taste and fashion completely flips. At that point you may not even want to browse rolexforum anyway and won't take advantage of the discount as no one wants such watches.. so what is the point. |
15 May 2024, 10:28 PM | #24 |
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Dont think it will go below retail any time soon but it will not remain hot piece as the fashion needs to change in order to stay relevant. New Nautilus for example has more of a offshore vibe and now people may look for non steel bracelet everywhere after usual instagram/celebrity push plus there are so many steel royal oaks (41mm included) that it is hard to say it is exclusive. When i bought Jumbo in 2017 it was cca 18k eur retail now is almost double, realistically speaking it is max 40k watch so the price may land between 40, 50k dependinh also how will bitcoin perform:):)
In any case its enjoying to watch and wait, postivie side if the hype/price goes down we can again start actully wearing watches when abroad or travelling, max I wear now even in EU when travel is 10yr old Panerai. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
15 May 2024, 11:01 PM | #25 |
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It’s still very rare to see a steel Royal Oak randomly. I have seen exactly one that I remember.
Last time I was in Vegas waiting to check in at Aria there was a guy in the same line with a rose gold RO chrono. Now that’s one you REALLY don’t see. He had the same TUMI McLaren luggage as I did but my DD 40 onyx seemed lame in comparison to his ROC although it’s likely more Vegas. As for the watch in question, it will likely decline some this year until November and then after the election who knows. It’s never trading below retail, that’s just silly. |
15 May 2024, 11:20 PM | #26 | |
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Now, u are going to tell me that this equilibrium point will be achieved here, I call bs on that. Since momentum on price decline is high! So price will go lower. By how much, well we all have our opinions. |
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15 May 2024, 11:33 PM | #27 |
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Yes, it is mass produced. Just to give u some idea, the entire MB&F run is sub 500, FPJ is sub 1,000. All the models!
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15 May 2024, 11:35 PM | #28 |
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15 May 2024, 11:48 PM | #29 | |
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https://watchesbysjx.com/2023/10/ins...ure-visit.html |
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16 May 2024, 12:03 AM | #30 | |
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Now, u are missing the bigger point, as usual. The entire brand producing less watches than one SS line, not including gold or other special super limited variants… please stop nit picking and think broader! |
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