Will Pateks keep dropping?

[HMHM]

I think the market will collapse OP, faster relinquish your stocks at 50% before it’s too late!
LOL

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

The fact a dealer came on here inquiring is telling. No offense to OP.

This. If a grey dealer is actually coming on here inquiring on what the general mood is then the falsely pristine facade of the secondary watch markets is showing signs of cracking, in my humble opinion.

I can't say I am not all that surprised that a grey dealer doesn't know the market they conduct business in, and thus they are coming on here to gather more market data. Extrapolate that to the broader grey market if I may, and I begin to wonder how many of these dealers have little to no idea what they are doing. (No offense OP.)

To the OP, I hope you didn't lever up and you get out of this somewhat unscathed.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

This. If a grey dealer is actually coming on here inquiring on what the general mood is then the falsely pristine facade of the secondary watch markets is showing signs of cracking, in my humble opinion.

I can't say I am not all that surprised that a grey dealer doesn't know the market they conduct business in, and thus they are coming on here to gather more market data. Extrapolate that to the broader grey market if I may, and I begin to wonder how many of these dealers have little to no idea what they are doing. (No offense OP.)

To the OP, I hope you didn't lever up and you get out of this somewhat unscathed.

Market research. Changes coming.

[LJubel328]

And one more comment to the OP, I have followed these sky is falling, prices are coming down, etc. threads closely. Largely because I like to have my ear to the ground and I see many similarities to economic and financial cycles.

My opinion (since you asked this forum): for months these threads have popped up and for a while, there were heated debates from both sides. I would say that general sentiment has deteriorated since these threads began. From what I have seen over the last 1-2 months is that the majority of members on TRF have now seen prices fall, and believe prices will further come down, so would-be buyers are now sitting on the sidelines until a stabilized price is found. This has a negative feedback loop for greys and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy on the demand side of the market.

This may be a good example of reflexivity.

[rolexandlange]

Originally Posted by john_peter33

Curious what a blue dial 5711 is actually selling at? Dealers are still holding strong at around 180 asking which seems way too high to me.

Good question. Eric Wind, who is as solid and well known as they come, has one for $159k and it's not moving. So I'd say the true level is quite a bit lower.

[rolexjackson]

The way I see it, now is a great time to buy! If there is a piece that you have always wanted and you have the cash to do it now is the time.


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[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by JR16

Agree. Didn’t realize the forum was a place for us to give advice to pre-owned dealers on pricing.


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the diamond district dealers are cash-rich and do a high volume in a wide variety of brands. They are not necessarily experts on all the brands they sell or on today's fast-moving market conditions, although they do generally take authenticity seriously and can tell when a watch has been worked over.

To answer OP's question, yes I believe you will see a prolonged drop. I've seen landlords listing apartments now in lower Manhattan for August and September vacancies. Why are landlords doing such a thing? Because they think prices are at high risk of falling & want to lock in today's pricing.

M&A fees at banks are way down, not just against 2021 but also against 2019. Anybody who does "deal" work is at least a little spooked. The European market is even worse, based on what I see everyday at work

[superdog]

Originally Posted by jdg443

The way I see it, now is a great time to buy! If there is a piece that you have always wanted and you have the cash to do it now is the time.


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Why do u think this?

[Ashj52]

Someone please tell me if my thought process is wrong - I feel with the economic downturn looming this is a great time to establish/start building a relationship with Patek? Especially for the less sought after models.

[Will_L]

Originally Posted by Ashj52

Someone please tell me if my thought process is wrong - I feel with the economic downturn looming this is a great time to establish/start building a relationship with Patek? Especially for the less sought after models.

To early, they are not feeling the pain yet.
Wait until the stock is readily available in the displays and then go and build your relationship (for what it is worth)

[dchang81]

Originally Posted by john_peter33

Curious what a blue dial 5711 is actually selling at? Dealers are still holding strong at around 180 asking which seems way too high to me.

I see low 100's, I'm guessing those at 180 are praying for a miracle

[Ashj52]

Originally Posted by Will_L

To early, they are not feeling the pain yet.
Wait until the stock is readily available in the displays and then go and build your relationship (for what it is worth)

Thank you for your advice, I have put my name forward for the 5205r already so may not want to back track at this stage!

[Toffeeman]

Despite all these, I just went around NYC dealers......only empty shelves and a few ladies watches. How to explain this

[smg8]

Originally Posted by john_peter33

Curious what a blue dial 5711 is actually selling at? Dealers are still holding strong at around 180 asking which seems way too high to me.

One sold in the uk for £95k the other day ($119k)

2017 full set

[Uros]

At least last 12 months crazy prices increase should be reversed, after this it will depend where the world will be.


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[893bet]

I think it’s over. I have a friend who has a hype piece that is being consigned at the moment at around 75k Sterling (chrono has them at 90k Sterling). He asked the dealer to consigned could he move it at trade, only offer that came back was 32k. No one else wanted it.

Emperor has no cloths.

I have an aquanaut. Take a look at the C24 graph.



Then take a look at the classic boom bust graph

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Toffeeman

Despite all these, I just went around NYC dealers......only empty shelves and a few ladies watches. How to explain this

i don't think watches will become any more available at msrp anytime soon. at least not royal oaks/5711s/hyped rolex watches. the grey market will come down but it would legitimately have to crash much more and erase all premiums for that to happen. as long as there are any kinds of premiums there will always be wait lists

[DonLee]

I think we are getting there. Prices are getting close to what they were a year ago for some hot models. To say that there's no money for watches out there is ridiculous. Recent watch auctions seen huge prices on watches still. $143 million on a Mercedes racer, $195 million for an Andy Warhol painting.

The reason why watch prices won't bust is because the whole new generation of watch collectors are here to stay. More and more people are entering this hobby, so prices will not go back to say, 2015.

[stainwriststeel]

Originally Posted by DonLee

I think we are getting there. Prices are getting close to what they were a year ago for some hot models. To say that there's no money for watches out there is ridiculous. Recent watch auctions seen huge prices on watches still. $143 million on a Mercedes racer, $195 million for an Andy Warhol painting.

The reason why watch prices won't bust is because the whole new generation of watch collectors are here to stay. More and more people are entering this hobby, so prices will not go back to say, 2015.

I wouldn't say a year ago, more like Sept / Oct pricing for the 15500, 5167, 116500's, blro, etc.. A year ago the 15500's (non blue) were still around high 20's low 30's. I think there is some more decline coming for these types of hype models. Maybe not another 20-30% but likely another 10-15%. I can definitely see 116500 panda's in the high 20's low 30's by end of summer. Just my humble opinion.

[893bet]

Originally Posted by DonLee

I think we are getting there. Prices are getting close to what they were a year ago for some hot models. To say that there's no money for watches out there is ridiculous. Recent watch auctions seen huge prices on watches still. $143 million on a Mercedes racer, $195 million for an Andy Warhol painting.

The reason why watch prices won't bust is because the whole new generation of watch collectors are here to stay. More and more people are entering this hobby, so prices will not go back to say, 2015.

Look at my graph above. These new people is bacicallt you said it’s a new” Paradigm”. The market has changed etc. classic denial phase.

The last two years have not been normal and it will be wiped out and all the new “hobbyist” will disappear just as fast.

[scurfa]

I will definitely depend on the model, here is an auction happening now, some interesting prices being realised

https://www.christies.com/en/auction...number&themes=

[smg8]

Originally Posted by 893bet

Look at my graph above. These new people is bacicallt you said it’s a new” Paradigm”. The market has changed etc. classic denial phase.

The last two years have not been normal and it will be wiped out and all the new “hobbyist” will disappear just as fast.

Correct. So many people living in denial about what is just a classic bubble

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by scurfa

I will definitely depend on the model, here is an auction happening now, some interesting prices being realised

https://www.christies.com/en/auction...number&themes=

Prices shown are they included buyers premium?

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Prices shown are they included buyers premium?

Yes

[Jamesd20]

Originally Posted by ts3

Yes

333k for a 5968a

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Jamesd20

333k for a 5968a

Tiffany signed and these auctions are not necessarily representative of the broader market.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by JR16

Agree. Didn’t realize the forum was a place for us to give advice to pre-owned dealers on pricing.


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Originally Posted by Ichiran

+1.

Bizarre a grey dealer opened a thread to discuss price drop.

And the plot thickens

[GB-man]

I wouldn’t touch a sport Patek or AP at secondary pricing with a ten foot pole. I suspect many are headed well below 6 figures again. Just my gut feeling.

If you’re paying msrp then who cares. You should get the same enjoyment as usual.

[enjoythemusic]

I'm curious if those who went for the new $400k 1/10th PP chrono are feeling ripped off by FPJ's 1/100th... or the revolutionary new $180k MB&F dual-chrono. The new MB&F is quite a game-changer over old designs imho.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by 893bet

Look at my graph above. These new people is bacicallt you said it’s a new” Paradigm”. The market has changed etc. classic denial phase.

There's a fair amount of extrapolation between your two graphs, to put it mildly!

Prices at auction seem to be holding up strongly.