Will the 5711 bubble ever burst?

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

I was thinking the other day about prices for this watch in terms of a stock with points of resistance and it dawned on me that I don’t recall it ever really trading in the 30s. I recall it going for just over retail about a year and a half ago, and being offered some at 28ish. Then it seemed to shoot right to the 40s, then 50s and now back to the 40s.

Is this just me or did it seem to rocket right from the high 20s to low 40s?

Yup, I was thinking of selling my 5711 around that time and they were going for 27ish. Then all of a sudden it jumped into the low 40s. Crazy.

[rockdrock]

The same exact question I had. Thank you all for the excellent points. I can’t wait to join the Nautilus club.


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[TravelFun]

Originally Posted by soundserious

Pay up. One way or another everybody pays market price.

For sure!

[daOnlyBG]

I am more certain of how the bubble would pop, given that it actually does, rather than the bubble popping at all.

What I envision happening is that the shift in supply inevitably causes people to seek alternatives. Yes, yes- there is "no substitute for Rolex"- but I imagine peoples' tastes and expectations adapting to this new market. Suddenly, the thousands of Rolex hoarders realize that beside rich venture capitalists/lawyers/investment bankers/surgeons/John Mayer, no one's left to buy the watches that were accessible to a much wider group of people than once thought.

Flippers start taking a small hit. You know, selling for less than their margin would allow for. And then some more. And then they hope to sell just to make even. For a moment, they'll think it's OK- they'll think the tide has turned and Rolexes are climbing up in value again. Only they aren't; the millions of baby boomers who had them have already sold their pieces to Certified Luxury Watches, and there's no longer any "steals" left to be had on the market.

By this time, the whole "vintage craze" that's been popular for the past ten years- in items ranging from instruments to whisky bottles- would have subsided anyway.

Business would have turned to the next thing. Maybe it won't bear the name "Rolex" or "Breitling" and it certainly won't bear the name "Panerai" but maybe it'll be something else that never exploded in popularity. Maybe something young? "Nomos"? Who knows.

ADs would have more pieces in their showcases. Suddenly there's no worry to snatch up the next Pepsi bezel. Maybe someone would prioritize that new [insert new battery-powered luxury car here; it probably won't be Tesla] model whatever over the GMT, and to Rolex's chagrin, someone who would have once sprung at the opportunity just consciously put off buying a watch from them.

Rolex will lay low for a number of years. They'll never compromise their quality, of course, but they'll never admit they were wrong to succumb to their ADs' wish to restrict supply to fight the grey market. Secretly, they'll seethe at the prospect of Patek Philippe taking their customers, because hey- if one has $25k to spend on a watch, which would one opt for?

And then, some actor will bring back the image. "I bought this after the movie [insert name here] came out back in 2018."

Lather, rinse, repeat, etc.

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by daOnlyBG

I am more certain of how the bubble would pop, given that it actually does, rather than the bubble popping at all.

What I envision happening is that the shift in supply inevitably causes people to seek alternatives. Yes, yes- there is "no substitute for Rolex"- but I imagine peoples' tastes and expectations adapting to this new market. Suddenly, the thousands of Rolex hoarders realize that beside rich venture capitalists/lawyers/investment bankers/surgeons/John Mayer, no one's left to buy the watches that were accessible to a much wider group of people than once thought.

Flippers start taking a small hit. You know, selling for less than their margin would allow for. And then some more. And then they hope to sell just to make even. For a moment, they'll think it's OK- they'll think the tide has turned and Rolexes are climbing up in value again. Only they aren't; the millions of baby boomers who had them have already sold their pieces to Certified Luxury Watches, and there's no longer any "steals" left to be had on the market.

By this time, the whole "vintage craze" that's been popular for the past ten years- in items ranging from instruments to whisky bottles- would have subsided anyway.

Business would have turned to the next thing. Maybe it won't bear the name "Rolex" or "Breitling" and it certainly won't bear the name "Panerai" but maybe it'll be something else that never exploded in popularity. Maybe something young? "Nomos"? Who knows.

ADs would have more pieces in their showcases. Suddenly there's no worry to snatch up the next Pepsi bezel. Maybe someone would prioritize that new [insert new battery-powered luxury car here; it probably won't be Tesla] model whatever over the GMT, and to Rolex's chagrin, someone who would have once sprung at the opportunity just consciously put off buying a watch from them.

Rolex will lay low for a number of years. They'll never compromise their quality, of course, but they'll never admit they were wrong to succumb to their ADs' wish to restrict supply to fight the grey market. Secretly, they'll seethe at the prospect of Patek Philippe taking their customers, because hey- if one has $25k to spend on a watch, which would one opt for?

And then, some actor will bring back the image. "I bought this after the movie [insert name here] came out back in 2018."

Lather, rinse, repeat, etc.

You realize the 5711 is not a rolex?

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by daOnlyBG

I am more certain of how the bubble would pop, given that it actually does, rather than the bubble popping at all.

What I envision happening is that the shift in supply inevitably causes people to seek alternatives. Yes, yes- there is "no substitute for Rolex"- but I imagine peoples' tastes and expectations adapting to this new market. Suddenly, the thousands of Rolex hoarders realize that beside rich venture capitalists/lawyers/investment bankers/surgeons/John Mayer, no one's left to buy the watches that were accessible to a much wider group of people than once thought.

Flippers start taking a small hit. You know, selling for less than their margin would allow for. And then some more. And then they hope to sell just to make even. For a moment, they'll think it's OK- they'll think the tide has turned and Rolexes are climbing up in value again. Only they aren't; the millions of baby boomers who had them have already sold their pieces to Certified Luxury Watches, and there's no longer any "steals" left to be had on the market.

By this time, the whole "vintage craze" that's been popular for the past ten years- in items ranging from instruments to whisky bottles- would have subsided anyway.

Business would have turned to the next thing. Maybe it won't bear the name "Rolex" or "Breitling" and it certainly won't bear the name "Panerai" but maybe it'll be something else that never exploded in popularity. Maybe something young? "Nomos"? Who knows.

ADs would have more pieces in their showcases. Suddenly there's no worry to snatch up the next Pepsi bezel. Maybe someone would prioritize that new [insert new battery-powered luxury car here; it probably won't be Tesla] model whatever over the GMT, and to Rolex's chagrin, someone who would have once sprung at the opportunity just consciously put off buying a watch from them.

Rolex will lay low for a number of years. They'll never compromise their quality, of course, but they'll never admit they were wrong to succumb to their ADs' wish to restrict supply to fight the grey market. Secretly, they'll seethe at the prospect of Patek Philippe taking their customers, because hey- if one has $25k to spend on a watch, which would one opt for?

And then, some actor will bring back the image. "I bought this after the movie [insert name here] came out back in 2018."

Lather, rinse, repeat, etc.

[Gh0st0]

Simple answer, not anytime soon until patek starts increasing distribution to their ADs to decrease backlog

[Bit5711]

I don’t think this price rise won’t stop for a when there are so many people on this forum who think 5711 will have a pull back or any sort of correction . It’s not called a bubble . If it’s bubble , most of you still think price keeps rising . But of course it’s a different story if there is financial crisis .


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[Andy Mcpandy]

Originally Posted by Gh0st0

Simple answer, not anytime soon until patek starts increasing distribution to their ADs to decrease backlog

Agreed, only way 'bubble' will burst is for Patek and Rolex to release more watches to the ADs.