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24 March 2020, 11:32 AM | #3571 | |
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I got a case report today of a couple who self medicated with chloroquine today, 60yo M died, wife in CCU- not sure of the validity of the case. It goes to show how concerned and vulnerable some members of our society are right now. As, CC MD, and head of a large pharma company we are in muddy waters. But, everyone I know is trying to bring this to an end. |
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24 March 2020, 11:36 AM | #3572 |
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There are a couple of unhelpful things in play. First, there is a bit of “to a carpenter, every problem looks like a nail”, to the extent that medical advisors to political leaders all reccomend more quarantine, all the time. The other issue is the “crabpot syndrome”, so called because crabs, in a boiling pot, will gang up to stop one crab from getting out. You see this in age as where mayors of major cities are urging a state wide shelter in place, even in locales with no known. Ovid-19 cases, because they can’t stand the possibility of losing business was to the other county.
There are alternatives to several weeks of shelter in place, for typical regions (not NYC). If you have thorough testing, you can do like the Koreans are doing now and have positives self quarantine with fines for not adhering. You can direct the oldest people to shelter in place longer than the others. |
24 March 2020, 11:45 AM | #3573 | |
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It doesn’t seem like testing is ramping up much at all
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24 March 2020, 11:57 AM | #3574 |
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Yes. We have tested about 100,000. Supposedly, we are ramping up. We need to. Iran has tested more than us.
The WSJ did an article about it. Evidently, early on, the CDC insisted on developing and controlling the testing, through their office and state agencies. They could never do better than 209 tests per day. The administration had to pressure them to enlist private industry into the effort. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj...em-11584552147 |
24 March 2020, 12:00 PM | #3575 | |
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24 March 2020, 12:18 PM | #3576 | |
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24 March 2020, 12:35 PM | #3577 | |
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I would look to history and to those that have impacted history for personal motives and gain through the ages on the world platform . Some have long awaited for the ( this) perfect storm to unfold and bring about a new era ... Let us be vigilant and not be overtaken by the element of fear and surprise by the current undertaking. I speak in parables for those that have the understanding . . |
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24 March 2020, 12:52 PM | #3578 | |
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I shall have to remember this when I show up for jury duty in a couple of weeks. Although, people here are slightly more accustomed to seeing face masks in general. I do have a very mild, lingering cough from my smoking days of the past. |
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24 March 2020, 01:00 PM | #3579 |
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What’s really getting me is the fact that we are literally allowing everything to tank due to this. I get it, it’s huge, people will die, hell I could, but it seems we are sacrificing the majority for the minority here. Are we all really going to stay locked up for a year while a vaccine is being developed? Are we really going to allow people to lose their lively hoods for an indeterminate amount of time? Not to mention every other thing this effects. Currently I believe the death rate in the US is ~1.4% or so...... I’m no mathematician but that seems pretty low (?). How wrong am I?
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24 March 2020, 01:04 PM | #3580 | |
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24 March 2020, 01:09 PM | #3581 | |
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Vaccines isn’t anywhere near ready ,at best you are looking at early immunogenicity results in June of this year and then final results q3 2021. That is the three arm ph1 dose ranging study from healthy folks 18 to 55 happening now so yeah vaccine at your doc office available for injection not any time soon and god knows where we will be in 1.5 years . So to answer your question I don’t think destroying the economy and handing out money we don’t have is a solution but we also have a morale obligation to those suffering so short answer is I don’t know . |
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24 March 2020, 01:12 PM | #3582 | |
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Can’t say right or wrong for your feelings. I can say that the actions we see are similar to a fog of war. And people are beginning to let it get to them. Today a 70+ y.o. man in the ATL area pulled out a weapon in a post office to confront two women wearing masks and gloves. He feared they could give him coronavirus. Some feel they can’t control this situation and that helplessness leads to fearful reactions. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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24 March 2020, 01:13 PM | #3583 | |
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24 March 2020, 01:19 PM | #3584 | |
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Hospitals are getting overrun...they are already short of supplies and staffing, so the point of shutting things down is the keep the medical system from failing. That means if you have a heart attack, car accident..etc the resources to help you would be absorbed by the victims of the virus, so you're in big trouble. It basically comes down to bust the economy or break the healthcare system.. Odds are when the healthcare system breaks, people will see this and be so fearful of the virus that they will finally lock themselves down to avoid it (without being told) and bust the economy anyway. |
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24 March 2020, 01:25 PM | #3585 | |
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I can only comment on my personal experiences from family. 1-my sister in law works at the hospital where that family Nj had the family members die, they don’t seem over crowded or overwhelmed 2-my mother in law just retired from being a nurse for 30+ years and also taught the nursing program at local university. No one had called her back to work 3-our schools just gave us 2 more weeks for the kids of home work to send us into spring break, email had a tone kids would be back after that 4-my sister, mother & brother all work in same school district and echo that sentiment 5-my neighbor works at the other local hospital in er, says it’s a ghost town and the hospital is literally hiding supplies to make sure they have them Incase it gets out of ���� Again I can only comment on what I have personally seen or heard directly. Not from my sisters kids school teachers aunt who she used to work with knows someone who...... I’m not saying this is everywhere, just what I see where I am, abojt an hour south of New York, 15 minutes from a large drive through testing facility I know this all comes off as unpopular right now because it’s positive To put my views on this into perspective, I pulled my kids from school 3 weeks ago, so in no Way am I taking this lightly https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ steve |
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24 March 2020, 01:27 PM | #3586 |
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There's a large Kaiser hospital less than 2 miles from my house. It is not overrun. In fact, it's calmer than normal, I assume because of "self quarantine."
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24 March 2020, 01:30 PM | #3587 |
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We’re in a horror movie and this is just the end of the first act. Business as usual is not possible.
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24 March 2020, 01:49 PM | #3588 |
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Ok so it seems a few folks get my point.....at some point, on a primal, animal level, this is simply survival of the fittest no matter what we do. Not to mention, don’t a huge number of us need to get this before we can ever develop herd immunity? Anyway, no I don’t want anyone to be hurt or die, that sucks, but for s$&@ sakes we cannot let the entire world collapse because of this mess. It’s a bad example, but watch nat geo to get some perspective of what happens in the rest of the animal kingdom when s$&? hits the fan.
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24 March 2020, 01:49 PM | #3589 |
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It is easy to say the restrictions being put in place are an overreaction - until it is you or someone you love suffering from this.
If everyone who feels this is an overreaction (such as the Florida Spring Breakers) pledges not to seek medical care in the event that they, or someone in their immediate family, gets seriously ill, I could at least see some moral responsibility for their positions. But they won’t. If people don’t respect common sense measures put forth by dang near every medical professionals out there then they should not expect those same medical professionals to risk their own lives to save the lives of the ignorant. We have a duty to our fellow human beings to slow this virus as much as possible.
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Jason 116610 LN DateJust Pelagos FXD Last edited by JasoninDenver; 24 March 2020 at 01:57 PM.. Reason: Potential political ? |
24 March 2020, 01:52 PM | #3590 |
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I spend every day going in and out of multiple hospitals in the area - not a single is overrun, including those with multiple COVID-19 positive patients.
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24 March 2020, 02:00 PM | #3591 |
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I hope you both don’t mind me posting a screenshot of your adjoining posts earlier tonight. I was taken by the dichotomy. I believe both of you are genuinely correct in your own feelings. This is how different people in different circumstances can have a different reaction to a singular disease. The truth is, in my opinion, that all reactions are localized. I respect both of your points, and only time will tell... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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24 March 2020, 02:03 PM | #3592 |
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I hate to be a wet blanket but any plateau or pause in infection rates is transitory.
First, with an R-0 of ~2.5 there is no relief until 60% is immune either by antibodies or vaccine. I wish like hell it was not true but these are the first principals of outbreak modeling. While Korea and China have seemingly made progress once people are moving again en-mass the progression to 60% resumes. Second, flattening the curve is just that: same number of cases (remember 60%) just a longer time to get there. Finally, we need some form of treatment and summer in the northern hemisphere. Both will buy doctors time to lower case severity and scientists time to progress towards vaccine. This is just one mathematician's understanding and I'd love to hear other evidence or counter-factuals. |
24 March 2020, 02:05 PM | #3593 |
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24 March 2020, 02:18 PM | #3594 | |
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Soon, many members will know someone with this or will get it personally. Then their views might be tested. But everyone is entitled to their own viewpoint. |
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24 March 2020, 02:18 PM | #3595 |
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24 March 2020, 02:24 PM | #3596 | |
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If so, not for long. https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/mar/2...l-be-overfill/ Unless they are wrong?? |
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24 March 2020, 02:42 PM | #3597 | |
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24 March 2020, 02:48 PM | #3598 | |
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Then there is the other person....who has the nickname of fake character in a 20-year old stupid comedy...who makes a strong clickbait worthy generalization based off presumably zero facts. Yet, most people react to this guy way more than the first person. We could play an even funner game and say that Dr. Fauci was the person who made the first comment and Kim Kardashian was McLovin....and maybe 2% of people would even look at Fauci's comment. |
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24 March 2020, 03:48 PM | #3599 | |
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My simple concern is is that my wife is one who will be called to help people when they are infected. Our friends are ER doctors and anesthesiologists and they are ALL scared for their patients, themselves and their families. They are being asked to place their own health and, indirectly, that of our families, at risk just doing their jobs. Why should we as a society expect them to do this if we then state that their commitment should be subject to an economic cost benefit analysis? People are comfortable taking risks on their own behalf. I am fine with that but only to the point that it adversely impacts someone else. This is not like daredevil activities where the risk of a bad decision is borne only by the risk-taker. With this virus, the risk is borne by everyone who comes into contact with that person. It is very similar to the anti vaxxer movement where it only takes a few people disregarding established medical evidence, based on their own personal view, to weaken herd immunity. Recent cases in this country ((NY and TX) has shown the danger of this. I really find it disappointing that people are now discussing how many people are we willing to sacrifice in the hopes of minimizing economic damage. There will come a time when we can start returning to a more normal life, even with the understanding that this will invariably lead to an increase in the number of cases. My hope is simply that people will understand that this time is best delayed until we have the ICU beds, respirators and PPE gear for our medical professionals to be able to handle this increased load at a later time. We do not have anything close to this now. I understand your view may be different.
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24 March 2020, 04:01 PM | #3600 | |
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Wider testing/skyrocketing numbers merely reveals how ill-prepared and how deep heads were buried in the sand despite the evidence, warnings, and most of all, common sense from the municipal and health care leaders all the way down the the person on the street. When a hurricane approaches a city but despite ample warnings and evidence everyone grasps onto any straw that allows them to remain in a state of denial or excuses themselves for failing to prepare in the belief it will somehow pass them by, then when it hits the death and destruction are far worse than a city and populace that are proactive. That's a fact, not an unproven theory. I saw it first hand in NYC and SF on trips in early March prior to the initiation of the responses. The difference between there and here in Hong Kong was night and day. There were certainly fewer people on the streets in tourists spots frequented by those from Europe and Asia, but mostly locals were acting out the same unhygienic and close-contact behaviors. The current response is, by and large, completely reactionary and even now there are too many who still don't "get it" as far as behavior and an unwillingness to put up with inconveniences unless forced to do so. Even now there's debate as to whether it does any good to wear a mask in public. Even now some are still having extended family dinners, birthday parties, etc etc. with those one normally lets their guard down around and thus are most likely to transmit it to and fro. It was common knowledge that carriers could be asymptomatic and that it was highly transmissible by having the benefit of seeing and studying what was happening elsewhere. In the face of that knowledge what NOT to do in a congested city is sit around hoping it will pass one by, doubly so when almost nobody is being tested yet. With an asymptomatic virus there should be no link between proactive behavior modification and testing. One doesn't need testing to do the things that will reduce the chance of communicating an unseen disease. Beating the drum now for resources after it's suddenly becoming overwhelming and obvious because broader testing is revealing how ill-prepared the populace was serves as a good example of what happens when wishful thinking, denial, a mindset of "someone will figure out something save the day...just like a Hollywood movie", and a general disbelief in science are given credence. |
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