the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[swish77]

Originally Posted by envuks

The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.

With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases.

It's apples and oranges. You can't extrapolate and compare to flu with such a relatively small sample size on the coronavirus.

Again, let's be cautious with all diseases, but the panic here is not logical.

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-19-face-masks

Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths

The truth about the protective value of face masks and how easy it is to catch Covid-19

Hannah Devlin Science correspondent


Fri 28 Feb 2020 13.59 GMTFirst published on Fri 28 Feb 2020 11.00 GMT


Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally

[danbl68]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

Nope....it is the 3rd most common virus in Europe and Asia...why now?! We have had it in the US, we have had it everywhere, the only difference is that NOW it is known. There had been many people who have been ill from it and even died from it but all thought that it was the flu virus or another virus. Just like any other one, WASH YOUR HANDS WITH SOAP AND WATER! Be smart and avoid those who are sick around you, and yea, maybe you shouldn't travel to areas where it is prevalent......but honestly, after ALL that we have been through, this, too, shall pass.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by danbl68

Nope....it is the 3rd most common virus in Europe and Asia...why now?! We have had it in the US, we have had it everywhere, the only difference is that NOW it is known. There had been many people who have been ill from it and even died from it but all thought that it was the flu virus or another virus. Just like any other one, WASH YOUR HANDS WITH SOAP AND WATER! Be smart and avoid those who are sick around you, and yea, maybe you shouldn't travel to areas where it is prevalent......but honestly, after ALL that we have been through, this, too, shall pass.

What are you trying to say? Are you saying we shouldn’t sell the stock market down 30 to 50%? Are you saying we shouldn’t cancel every event that has more than 10 people in it? Are you saying we should live our lives as normal? Outrageous! Hardly anything interesting in that. Fear and disaster is the order of the day!!!! Especially this year.

Actually I agree with everything you wrote. But you won’t see anyone in the news media saying that.

[danbl68]

Originally Posted by Patton250

What are you trying to say? Are you saying we shouldn’t sell the stock market down 30 to 50%? Are you saying we shouldn’t cancel every event that has more than 10 people in it? Are you saying we should live our lives as normal? Outrageous! Hardly anything interesting in that. Fear and disaster is the order of the day!!!! Especially this year.



Actually I agree with everything you wrote. But you won’t see anyone in the news media saying that.

:wink: buy buy buy!


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[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

You were saying?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

You were saying?

Really!! Really??!!?

Sigh.

[swils8610]

I’m not worried about it living in US. The scary thing is how fast it’s spreading and the amount of people that affected by it. The idea of how fast it’s spreading over several continents is insane. A virus like this could potentially wipe out millions of people world wide.


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[JasoninDenver]

The concern is two fold. First, any virus with a 3% mortality rate is a bear. Despite this, the overall impact it will have on hospital capacity is most likely what motivated the China quarantine. A very high number of infected patients develop pneumonia. Consequently, this can easily overwhelm the medical resources of any community.

[envuks]

Here is another info graphic tracking coronavirus. I’ve previously posted this, but it warrants reposting

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

[envuks]

1/27 ~12:00noon ET: ~2600 cases, 80 deaths.
1/28 ~4600 cases, 107 deaths
1/29 ~midnight ET: ~6000 cases, 132 deaths


It’s really picking up pace.

[MikeMike]

The mortality rate is in line with the influenza death rate in China (around 1.6-2.6%). There are currently around 1.2 billion people in China; that there currently just over 6,000 cases is statistically irrelevant. People should be concerned, but as of right now there is an overreaction. That it is Spring Festival made the situation worse. Arguably this is why the Chinese government imposed a lockdown on Wuhan etc. There will be a lot more cases and deaths (just like any major flu outbreak), but right now the level of paranoia and fear is quite breathtaking.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by MikeMike

The mortality rate is in line with the influenza death rate in China (around 1.6-2.6%). There are currently around 1.2 billion people in China; that there currently just over 6,000 cases is statistically irrelevant. People should be concerned, but as of right now there is an overreaction. That it is Spring Festival made the situation worse. Arguably this is why the Chinese government imposed a lockdown on Wuhan etc. There will be a lot more cases and deaths (just like any major flu outbreak), but right now the level of paranoia and fear is quite breathtaking.

Mortality rate is lower but incubation period is longer. Also there is a 2-3 contagion risk per person. Not to mention the hospitals being overloaded. Problem is the size is not known.

My personal view is the case load will spike much more. The estimates are significantly above what the current reported cases sre

[MikeMike]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Mortality rate is lower but incubation period is longer. Also there is a 2-3 contagion risk per person. Not to mention the hospitals being overloaded. Problem is the size is not known.

My personal view is the case load will spike much more. The estimates are significantly above what the current reported cases sre

The contagion rate is still open to debate. People are just trying to make educated guesses at this point. Hospitals are being overloaded in certain cities (I would not want to be in Wuhan). For most large cities it is business as usual in hospitals. The number of infections will spike a lot more, but if the death rate is in line with the normal flu (so far that seems to be the situation; may well change). If this remains the same it will end up being like a bad flu outbreak, but with less infections and deaths due to the measures being taken by the Chinese government.

[3 Putt]

I live 700 km from Wuhan. My company is making me leave until things stabilize. So I will return to the US until China stabilizes. I can tell you, my city of 10 million people seems deserted. Not a single person outside walking. The subway is operating only 20% of the time and busses are just about empty. Anybody that has been to China knows this never happens.

Shanghai airport was empty yesterday when I returned to China from Singapore. Very few cars on the road and road blocks set up along highways to take passenger temperatures. The place is now intimidating and I don't scare easy.

Those of you trying to compare mortality rates with auto accidents or the flu are missing the point. Of the 7,000 cases reported (and probably double or triple that in actuality as the Chinese government is not always honest), only about 150 people have been cured. Cured meaning they have beaten the virus. The rest are still suffering through the painful symptoms. While this will not likely be as bad as SARS, it will affect a lot more people than those in China.

[frommer]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Mortality rate is lower but incubation period is longer. Also there is a 2-3 contagion risk per person. Not to mention the hospitals being overloaded. Problem is the size is not known.

My personal view is the case load will spike much more. The estimates are significantly above what the current reported cases sre

+1
Let's not forget China is a communist state. They silence real numbers and they wouldn't ring the bell if it wasn't tragic.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by frommer

+1
Let's not forget China is a communist state. They silence real numbers and they wouldn't ring the bell if it wasn't tragic.

This is very true.

I feel that the nature of the Chinese government is lost in the shuffle of making the worlds stuff cheaply and those profiting off of that are buying alotta luxury watches...so people don't really think of China as being much different governmentally, but it most certainly is...

[envuks]

Originally Posted by envuks

1/27 ~12:00noon ET: ~2600 cases, 80 deaths.
1/28 ~4600 cases, 107 deaths
1/29 ~midnight ET: ~6000 cases, 132 deaths

1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by envuks

1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

Y’all know there’s charts on those links right?

[Trailboss516]

+1 to MikeMike

Google tells me there are 3,287 automobile deaths per year in the world. Why aren't we freaking out about that? Right because we are used to it. No longer news.

News is sensational, we all love a good story. Fear and anxiety sell newspaper and people click articles.

Concern, yes, but let's keep things in perspective.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

+1 to MikeMike

Google tells me there are 3,287 automobile deaths per year in the world. Why aren't we freaking out about that? Right because we are used to it. No longer news.

News is sensational, we all love a good story. Fear and anxiety sell newspaper and people click articles.

Concern, yes, but let's keep things in perspective.

I know that it was just a typo on your part, but for the benefit of anybody reading, that’s 3287 car accident deaths per day or > 1 million per year. 12000 Americans die annually falling down the stairs but most people remain unafflicted by bathmophobia.

I absolutely accept the seriousness of the situation and the potential for it to become a big problem, however the current reporting of it in countries like the U.K. and USA is entirely disproportionate and designed purely to instil fear in the public for the purpose of driving sales/views/clicks, as pointed out above. The same phenomenon resulted in unwarranted hysteria about (admittedly far less easily transmitted) Ebola.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I know that it was just a typo on your part, but for the benefit of anybody reading, that’s 3287 car accident deaths per day or > 1 million per year. 12000 Americans die annually falling down the stairs but most people remain unafflicted by bathmophobia.

I absolutely accept the seriousness of the situation and the potential for it to become a big problem, however the current reporting of it in countries like the U.K. and USA is entirely disproportionate and designed purely to instil fear in the public for the purpose of driving sales/views/clicks, as pointed out above. The same phenomenon resulted in unwarranted hysteria about (admittedly far less easily transmitted) Ebola.

I agree 100%. Not about the stats (I don’t disagree, I just haven’t researched it myself), but rather about the hysteria.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

+1 to MikeMike

Google tells me there are 3,287 automobile deaths per year in the world. Why aren't we freaking out about that? Right because we are used to it. No longer news.

News is sensational, we all love a good story. Fear and anxiety sell newspaper and people click articles.

Concern, yes, but let's keep things in perspective.

Eh what? In the world? LOL. Not even close. You mean per day.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

Eh what? In the world? LOL. Not even close. You mean per day.

That would be a great accomplishment if we can get it to that number

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by GB-man

That would be a great accomplishment if we can get it to that number

My thoughts too. Wouldn't that be awesome. Who knows, maybe in 50 years.

[Hollie_Rollie]

I guess the most concerning part of this whole situation is no one really knows how bad the current situation is. Chinese government controls all the information flow and they have historically been...deceiving. So far we do know they quarantined 50 million people, something that’s completely unprecedented. That in itself is alarming. Also, if the incubation period is 2 weeks and millions fled wuhan prior to the lockdown...oh boy

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I guess the most concerning part of this whole situation is no one really knows how bad the current situation is. Chinese government controls all the information flow and they have historically been...deceiving. So far we do know they quarantined 50 million people, something that’s completely unprecedented. That in itself is alarming. Also, if the incubation period is 2 weeks and millions fled wuhan prior to the lockdown...oh boy

The initial Government response is always to cover it up and pretend it isn't hapening until it gets so bad thay can't hide it any more. We saw this with SARS.

Its likely far worse than is being admitted even now, and with such a long incubation period it has probably already spread further than is being reported (or actually known) too.

[MikeMike]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

millions fled wuhan prior to the lockdown...oh boy

You mean millions left Wuhan and returned to their home cities prior to the start of Chinese New Year. In other words, a totally normal occurrence. Millions did not flee the city because of the virus.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by MikeMike

You mean millions left Wuhan and returned to their home cities prior to the start of Chinese New Year. In other words, a totally normal occurrence. Millions did not flee the city because of the virus.

Correct.

[Trailboss516]

Sorry for my typo and appreciate the correction for those who correctly called it out!