the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by c41006

I agree it you on the threat level compared to the flu. It seems to be more dangerous. I was not calling into question the 2-5% mortality rate because that is highly inflated over reality and people seeing numbers like that is likely leading to a lot of this panic.

In Hong Kong, medical officials are finding that 20-30 percent of those who have recovered from the virus have detectable lung damage. It's too soon to know for sure, but the effects of the virus make have long term heath implications.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by c41006

It kills FAR less than 2-5%. That number fails to account for the many thousands on undetected cases out there. People who get it and get over it no problem and they just think they had a cold.

Yup, I elaborated on that in the latter paragraph.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

In Hong Kong, medical officials are finding that 20-30 percent of those who have recovered from the virus have detectable lung damage. It's too soon to know for sure, but the effects of the virus make have long term heath implications.

That's terrible.

[chappuy1750]

Priorities.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200313.html

[superdog]

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

Priorities.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200313.html

Makes sense.

[Ferdelious]

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

Priorities.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200313.html

I'm buying 6 cases of Miller Lite tonight. That should last a good 6 weeks.

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

In Hong Kong, medical officials are finding that 20-30 percent of those who have recovered from the virus have detectable lung damage. It's too soon to know for sure, but the effects of the virus make have long term heath implications.

Those would be the ones who contracted lower respiratory disease, right?

Such as pneumonia.

That stat lines up with the converse: 70-80% who recover have no long-term health issue...sort of what Fauci has been saying.

The mortality rates need parsing to a level I have only seen once. In other words, parsed by prior underlying immunodeficiency, prior health issue (like diabetes, COPD, etc), and age.




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[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by nda

I did ask this question a while back - the testing figure seems woefully small. Is it a cost thing?

Testing is vital to know the extent of infection, how it is spreading and how best to manage resources. Otherwise the authorities are shooting in the dark.

Complacency and conspiracy theorists are not the way forward.

knowing the exact figure of those infected seems fairly irrelevant as little can be done even if we knew it – apart from slowing it down (which is nothing to do with testing)

[c41006]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

In Hong Kong, medical officials are finding that 20-30 percent of those who have recovered from the virus have detectable lung damage. It's too soon to know for sure, but the effects of the virus make have long term heath implications.

Yikes. That is something I hadn’t heard. Scary stuff.

[77T]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

We've decided to cancel the flight to Houston next week for my cousin's wedding. I'm not usually one to concern myself too much with what's trending in the news and can be pretty cavalier when others are worried about certain things, but coronavirus has gotten all too real at this point. As you have said, we've gotta do what's best for our families.

That’s a good call if there are too many unknowns in your situation.

I’m heading to a race we didn’t cancel. But I looked at the entry list and no drivers/crew from coronavirus hotspots - more regional teams. 200 or so.

I’d prolly do as you did - but too many Stewards have had to drop out due to age & health profiles. And we have folks still in Australia and many were headed to Sebring so gotta do the better work for the spirit of the sport and still stay as safe as possible.



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[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by nda

As of March 9th, the US has tested 26 people per million of population - roughly the same rate as Vietnam. Italy is about 1,000 per million and France 182.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...id-19-testing/

we should be embarrassed

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by nda

I did ask this question a while back - the testing figure seems woefully small. Is it a cost thing?



Testing is vital to know the extent of infection, how it is spreading and how best to manage resources. Otherwise the authorities are shooting in the dark.



Complacency and conspiracy theorists are not the way forward.

Tell the U.K. government as they aren’t bothering to test unless you are hospitalised.


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[Moggo]

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

Priorities.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200313.html

Perhaps it works as hand wash


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[Moggo]

Originally Posted by andyxxx

knowing the exact figure of those infected seems fairly irrelevant as little can be done even if we knew it – apart from slowing it down (which is nothing to do with testing)

But the Chief Medical Officer has said about 60% of the population need to get it to develop ‘herd immunity’, how he is going to know if figures are irrelevant. He is a walking contradiction.


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[Moggo]

I’m waiting for the ‘What watch to wear with my Hazmat Suit’ threads

J/K


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[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by mannyv11

we should be embarrassed

I have been for a while now

[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

I have been for a while now

I agree with you 100 percent.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

In Hong Kong, medical officials are finding that 20-30 percent of those who have recovered from the virus have detectable lung damage. It's too soon to know for sure, but the effects of the virus make have long term heath implications.

That's never good, but the good news here is that fibrosis of the lungs can happen as a result of any infection fo the lungs including pneumonia. So not just pneumonia caused by SARS-COV-2.


https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/syc-20353690

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

As of today, 13,000 tests for Coronavirus have been done in the US, a country of over 300 million peole. This is an outrage bordering on criminality.

.

Exactly my thoughts.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by mannyv11

we should be embarrassed

I imagine there aren't mass tests, because it would result in even the most mild symptoms demanding potentially unnecessary in-patient care and overwhelming the hospital system. If that happened, there wouldn't be enough capacity for the in-patient care of the most serious cases, let alone normal illnesses and injuries. Not just the US, but really any hospital system in the world because of their "just in time" delivery method. Just like a company with inventory and pushing it to the last second, hospitals don't run extra beds that aren't typically used in order to cut sunk costs. Problem is when pandemics happen there then isn't enough capacity in some cases.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

I have been for a while now

Right?

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I imagine there aren't mass tests, because it would result in even the most mild symptoms demanding potentially unnecessary in-patient care and overwhelming the hospital system. If that happened, there wouldn't be enough capacity for the in-patient care of the most serious cases, let alone normal illnesses and injuries. Not just the US, but really any hospital system in the world because of their "just in time" delivery method. Just like a company with inventory and pushing it to the last second, hospitals don't run extra beds that aren't typically used in order to cut sunk costs. Problem is when pandemics happen there then isn't enough capacity in some cases.

Why hospitalised though if mild? It would be a way of knowing who was infected but wouldn’t necessarily mean hospitalisation. In the U.K. confirmed mild cases can self isolate, but you only seem to get tested if you are someone of importance here.


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[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Why hospitalised though if mild? It would be a way of knowing who was infected but wouldn’t necessarily mean hospitalisation. In the U.K. confirmed mild cases can self isolate, but you only seem to get tested if you are someone of importance here.


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EXACTLY.

The important part is knowing whether you are infected and can infect others. Otherwise, we might move through life as carriers, blissfully unaware as we potentially pass the virus on to people in high-risk categories.

[alphadweller]

Spain will be locked down tomorrow. Hospitals are overwhelmed, we've got to stay home to prevent the virus from spreading and cause total collapse.

We'll get through this if we're careful, use our common sense and stay calm. We've got to stop any unnecessary physical contact between each other.

To all people around the world, if we act together we're stronger. We need to take care of our elders who are more vulnerable to this.

Stay home. Things will get back to normal if we make it happen.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Why hospitalised though if mild? It would be a way of knowing who was infected but wouldn’t necessarily mean hospitalisation. In the U.K. confirmed mild cases can self isolate, but you only seem to get tested if you are someone of importance here.


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Some of the more mild cases can still include pneumonia. Severe cases require oxygen and/or ventilator. I imagine they want to stagger the flow so that those with the very mildest of symptoms aren't showing up at hospitals demanding admission and taking resources away from the most serious or even the more mild pneumonia cases. Just my thoughts though

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Spain will be locked down tomorrow. Hospitals are overwhelmed, we've got to stay home to prevent the virus from spreading and cause total collapse.

We'll get through this if we're careful, use our common sense and stay calm. We've got to stop any unnecessary physical contact between each other.

To all people around the world, if we act together we're stronger. We need to take care of our elders who are more vulnerable to this.

Stay home. Things will get back to normal if we make it happen.

Nuestros pensamientos y oraciones están contigo

[Deep18]

Originally Posted by Rock

Re 'Fleetlords' post: This is why epidemics are what they are - because you cannot rely on people to be rational. The one thing you can depend upon is that most people will always do what they (in their infinite wisdom) want to and to hell with everyone else.

Bingo. Even the people who yell the loudest “we have to do something” will ignore the advice if it inconveniences them.

[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I imagine there aren't mass tests, because it would result in even the most mild symptoms demanding potentially unnecessary in-patient care and overwhelming the hospital system. If that happened, there wouldn't be enough capacity for the in-patient care of the most serious cases, let alone normal illnesses and injuries. Not just the US, but really any hospital system in the world because of their "just in time" delivery method. Just like a company with inventory and pushing it to the last second, hospitals don't run extra beds that aren't typically used in order to cut sunk costs. Problem is when pandemics happen there then isn't enough capacity in some cases.

if countries that are supposedly less well off and less equipped to handle a situation like this are providing more tests we have no excuse. That is just my opinion.

[newu5er]

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House will pass the Families First Coronavirus Response Act today

[77T]

In testing...

In China, studies reported in the journal Radiology showed they aren’t always definitive.

False negatives comprised 3% of the patient population.

The study authors noted that RT-PCR tests may produce false negatives due to laboratory error, insufficient amount of viral material collected, samples stored or handled improperly, if the patient is tested too early in the course of infection, and improper sampling.

We should still be testing - just not so fixated in that issue.

If the panic over lack of testing will abate, and if people presumptively treat any symptoms as if they were COVID-19, we would have better controls over the spread.

Of course, presuming they follow the hygiene, isolation and social distancing processes.

So lack of testing itself isn’t widening the spread as much as poor common sense imho.