the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by superdog

Have you seen how often their numbers change?

I predict over 200K (US). It's flattening a curve as opposed to "reducing.". There is a difference.



Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by statsman

A few things-

I think it’s worth studying Sweden. If their policy is wrong, the numbers will show it. If the numbers don’t show it...? (One thing they are doing is strongly encouraging one segment of the population- the elderly- to take extreme measures).

Italy’s deaths have not plateaued. They only count deaths in hospitals as COVID-19 deaths. They have a finite supply of hospital beds, so more and more are dying at home and not being counted. Things are not going better there.

Of the Asian countries- China’s numbers are bs. They aren’t counting all their new cases (they are qurantining people without counting them) and there are a lot of indications that they severely under counted deaths. Japan’s count spiked after they delayed the Olympics- they were playing games, too. ROK is the only truly successful Asian story and there is a lot to learn from them.

Correct on China. They stopped testing. If you ran a fever the ref arm bands lock you in your house. If you lived, you lived and if you died, you died, but we're not recorded as a Covid death.

Why did China cell accounts drop by 22million?

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-...ared-why-41580

https://www-tweaktown-com.cdn.amppro...h%2Findex.html

https://www-nhpolitician-com.cdn.amp...-death-toll%2F

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-...ared-why-41580

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

I predict over 200K (US). It's flattening a curve as opposed to "reducing.". There is a difference.



Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

200k deaths in what time frame? Swine flu lasted 20
Months

steve

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

Correct on China. They stopped testing. If you ran a fever the ref arm bands lock you in your house. If you lived, you lived and if you died, you died, but we're not recorded as a Covid death.

Why did China cell accounts drop by 22million?

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-...ared-why-41580

https://www-tweaktown-com.cdn.amppro...h%2Findex.html

https://www-nhpolitician-com.cdn.amp...-death-toll%2F

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-...ared-why-41580

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

But why would they publish these numbers at all? It clearly opens suspicion. If they were trying to hide all these fatalities, wouldn't it let the cat out of the bag?

[Dawg2]

FWIW, North Carolina had its first death this afternoon. A 36YO male.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

But why would they publish these numbers at all? It clearly opens suspicion. If they were trying to hide all these fatalities, wouldn't it let the cat out of the bag?

They didn't. They publish cell account volumes. Somebody picked on the fact the cell accounts shrunk, instead of the constant growth. It happened during the outbreak.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

They didn't. They publish cell account volumes. Somebody picked on the fact the cell accounts shrunk, instead of the constant growth. It happened during the outbreak.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

The reason why I asked was because this was in this link:

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-...ared-why-41580

'But recently Beijing authorities announced on March 19 that more than 21 million cell phone accounts were cancelled while in past three months 840,000 landlines were closed in China'...

So I thought it odd they would announce data that would lead to suspicion....maybe just way the article was written..

They announced the data....but didn't specifically announce that 21 million accounts were cancelled.

Even then, I'm surprised those numbers weren't scrubbed over before release. ....i bet somebody is in trouble...

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The reason why I asked was because this was in this link:

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-...ared-why-41580

'But recently Beijing authorities announced on March 19 that more than 21 million cell phone accounts were cancelled while in past three months 840,000 landlines were closed in China'...

So I thought it odd they would announce data that would lead to suspicion....maybe just way the article was written..

They announced the data....but didn't specifically announce that 21 million accounts were cancelled.

Even then, I'm surprised those numbers weren't scrubbed over before release. ....i bet somebody is in trouble...

China is not being forthright with their numbers. If they lose control of the narrative, then they lose control of their people.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[samsmart]

I read the 21 million fewer cell phone article last week and was stunned.

Could this number of fewer phones be due to people being out of work and not being able to afford cell phones, or are cell phones subsidized in China since people rely on them for so much government interaction?

I hope things get back to normal around May 1st. I own a few companies, one located in Dallas. We are currently shut down as we are not considered essential.

I can afford to hunker down as long as necessary and ride this out, but my guys cant. They have families and need to work.

And this is happening all over our country. Its terrible. The cure can easily become as bad as the virus it self.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Rock]

It's a serious issue if countries are releasing statistics that are incorrect or intentionally misleading as many countries will be looking for examples of where a National strategy to address Covid has shown a successful result.
I watched an interesting documentary last night examining Singapore's approach. In a nutshell, they already had a 'National Plan' post-SARS and being a fairly autocratic society with a government controlled media were able to enforce that Plan quickly and effectively.
If I was a member of government I would not be placing too much reliance on statistics from countries that were not known for their truthfulness prior to the pandemic.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

China is not being forthright with their numbers. If they lose control of the narrative, then they lose control of their people.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

As somebody with lots of Chinese friends, I am hearing that many people left the country in the early days of this. But some had it already, whether they realized it or not, which then spread it globally.

The numbers are a farce, we all know that, but we'll never know the truth at this point. All we can do is stay strong and try to move forward.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by samsmart

I read the 21 million fewer cell phone article last week and was stunned.

Could this number of fewer phones be due to people being out of work and not being able to afford cell phones, or are cell phones subsidized in China since people rely on them for so much government interaction?

I hope things get back to normal around May 1st. I own a few companies, one located in Dallas. We are currently shut down as we are not considered essential.

I can afford to hunker down as long as necessary and ride this out, but my guys cant. They have families and need to work.

And this is happening all over our country. Its terrible. The cure can easily become as bad as the virus it self.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

The cure is unnerving. In a few weeks people will be struggling to have food and shelter. That could very well be as bad or worse than the "cure."

Scary times indeed.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

As somebody with lots of Chinese friends, I am hearing that many people left the country in the early days of this. But some had it already, whether they realized it or not, which then spread it globally.



The numbers are a farce, we all know that, but we'll never know the truth at this point. All we can do is stay strong and try to move forward.

"Get off the X" is all we can do at this point.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

[77T]

On the topic of a sharp reduction in active cellphones in China that the article cited - we should closely look at the report’s provisions.

BTW, that drop of 22 million phones was a 1.4% drop across a base of 1.6 billion.

And after that, we ought to look at the change in how we count cell numbers.

First, quoting the report:

“While the drop in these numbers showed a dramatic scenario in China, Tang said, ‘It's possible that some migrant workers had two cell phone numbers before. One is from their hometown, and the other is from the city they work in. In February, they might close the number in the city they work in because they couldn't go there.’

It is possible that these workers may have gone to their home city for the Chinese New Year and after the travel ban, they did not get a chance to come back to China. It should be noted that in China there is a basic monthly fee to hold a cell phone account and the majority of migrant workers, who belong to the lowest income group, likely only have one cell phone account.

The economic downturn caused by the outbreak could have forced the Chinese people, who have two cell phones to cancel one of them.”

So there are at least two factors above and beyond death for a reduction. Both factors are a function of economic downturn and of restrictions.

The next issue is how we count.

For example:
The way I am counted is having 3 cellphone numbers. But I only have one phone. My iPad has a data number, my AppleWatch has a unique cell number bonded to my primary cellphone in a SimRing arrangement.

In China, wearables represent almost 134 million users. Tablets are another connected device and iPads alone represent another 245 million users (Samsung and Huawei add at least another 250 million).

I’m only saying this to illustrate that the economic impact on China’s cellphone drop could be confused with user deaths. Perhaps it’s a churn on economic downturn there. People dropping the extra connectivity devices to reduce expenses.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[interestedwatcher]

Originally Posted by 77T

On the topic of a sharp reduction in active cellphones in China that the article cited - we should closely look at the report’s provisions.

BTW, that drop of 22 million phones was a 1.4% drop across a base of 1.6 billion.

And after that, we ought to look at the change in how we count cell numbers.

First, quoting the report:

“While the drop in these numbers showed a dramatic scenario in China, Tang said, ‘It's possible that some migrant workers had two cell phone numbers before. One is from their hometown, and the other is from the city they work in. In February, they might close the number in the city they work in because they couldn't go there.’

It is possible that these workers may have gone to their home city for the Chinese New Year and after the travel ban, they did not get a chance to come back to China. It should be noted that in China there is a basic monthly fee to hold a cell phone account and the majority of migrant workers, who belong to the lowest income group, likely only have one cell phone account.

The economic downturn caused by the outbreak could have forced the Chinese people, who have two cell phones to cancel one of them.”

So there are at least two factors above and beyond death for a reduction. Both factors are a function of economic downturn and of restrictions.

The next issue is how we count.

For example:
The way I am counted is having 3 cellphone numbers. But I only have one phone. My iPad has a data number, my AppleWatch has a unique cell number bonded to my primary cellphone in a SimRing arrangement.

In China, wearables represent almost 134 million users. Tablets are another connected device and iPads alone represent another 245 million users (Samsung and Huawei add at least another 250 million).

I’m only saying this to illustrate that the economic impact on China’s cellphone drop could be confused with user deaths. Perhaps it’s a churn on economic downturn there. People dropping the extra connectivity devices to reduce expenses.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I think we can all agree that more than 3500 people died.

[Star Ferry]

Paul, I'm well aware of how many people live in China. Nobody knows how many deaths the virus caused there. 21 million seems way too high, 3000 seems way too low. I don't believe they had fewer fatalities than France did. Surely many people did cancel cell lines they no longer needed or could no longer afford.

The virus spread much faster than testing capability could have grown, so the answer is a mystery. I think their reported numbers are way off, but that's not necessarily the result of an active cover-up.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Paul, I'm well aware of how many people live in China. Nobody knows how many deaths the virus caused there. 21 million seems way too high, 3000 seems way too low. I don't believe they had fewer fatalities than France did. Surely many people did cancel cell lines they no longer needed or could no longer afford.

The virus spread much faster than testing capability could have grown, so the answer is a mystery. I think their reported numbers are way off, but that's not necessarily the result of an active cover-up.

I think it’s a combo of Chinese drastically under reporting their related deaths and the USA (where I live close to ny) perhaps taking some liberties when it comes to covid related deaths. There have been more and more reports of family members wrongly (maybe wrongly isn’t the correct word) labeling deaths to covid, i don’t think it can be so black and white when it comes to under lying health issues.

Someone we know directly great grand mother just died, mid 90s and 3 forms of cancer however she was tested and came back positive for covid and died this week. She will be counted as a covid death. There is great area here with the numbers is all i guess in trying to say.

To be clear I’m not minimizing the severity of the situation. Just some fishy thjngs going on with the numbers and how things are being counted, or maybe we are just harping on the numbers too much?

The discrepancies can’t be ignored, seems like it’s either way worse or way better. 2.4 million people would have died without mitigation is being reported; that didn’t just come out of now where after knowing about covid for months

Stay safe and stay home

steve

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by Patton250

So as far as you’re concerned you are expecting full blown global panic? I mean economies destroyed, jobs lost, Olympics canceled and pure pandemonium? Basically global meltdown?

Posted February 27th in response to a comment made by me. This is not meant to be a "I told you so." Because I really didn't. It was just my best guess at the time and even my answer evolved.

This situation itself truly has evolved. Devolved maybe is a better word.

[Moggo]

I’ve come to the conclusion that there truly are no ‘experts’ in all this. It’s so unprecedented that even the ‘experts’ advising countries change their mind pretty much daily.

What I do know is that the media really are not and have not helped the situation at all, they print anything as usual if it gets airtime regardless of whether it’s fact checked or more harmful to the situation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I’ve come to the conclusion that there truly are no ‘experts’ in all this. It’s so unprecedented that even the ‘experts’ advising countries change their mind pretty much daily.

What I do know is that the media really are not and have not helped the situation at all, they print anything as usual if it gets airtime regardless of whether it’s fact checked or more harmful to the situation.

In my opinion, the media have been disgusting, they have continually criticised and seemed to revel in embarrassing people in charge, they have done nothing to help, shown no spirit and have caused panic and chaos when there has been no need. I am all for a freedom of press and their ability to hold any Governments feet to the fire but this is ridiculous, all they seem to do is get so called experts to cast different views to those in charge.

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by ronricks

I am not saying anyone go back to work today. But in 2 or 3 weeks time we need to reopen the economy the best we can and let the chips fall where they may. A long term shutdown would have a much worse long term effect on this country than the virus.

I agree with much of what you say.

I believe not to do so will cause far, far worse consequences (and possibly more deaths) than the virus itself.

[Horosopher]

This is illuminating.

Spain seems to be worrisome; Italy will get better; South Korea is a super-nation :

[swatty]

Originally Posted by daveathall

In my opinion, the media have been disgusting, they have continually criticised and seemed to revel in embarrassing people in charge, they have done nothing to help, shown no spirit and have caused panic and chaos when there has been no need. I am all for a freedom of press and their ability to hold any Governments feet to the fire but this is ridiculous, all they seem to do is get so called experts to cast different views to those in charge.

Great post Dave. I liked it when the news media reported the news

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by daveathall

In my opinion, the media have been disgusting, they have continually criticised and seemed to revel in embarrassing people in charge, they have done nothing to help, shown no spirit and have caused panic and chaos when there has been no need. I am all for a freedom of press and their ability to hold any Governments feet to the fire but this is ridiculous, all they seem to do is get so called experts to cast different views to those in charge.

Agree wholeheartedly! This is an unprecedented situation for all countries, and most seem to be responding in the best way they feel able. The media have been supremely unhelpful.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by daveathall

In my opinion, the media have been disgusting, they have continually criticised and seemed to revel in embarrassing people in charge, they have done nothing to help, shown no spirit and have caused panic and chaos when there has been no need. I am all for a freedom of press and their ability to hold any Governments feet to the fire but this is ridiculous, all they seem to do is get so called experts to cast different views to those in charge.

I absolutely agree about the media. They have an insatiable appetite to foment fear and increase ratings. They serve no other purpose, other than for self gratification.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Horosopher

This is illuminating.

Spain seems to be worrisome; Italy will get better; South Korea is a super-nation :

Interesting and informative video. The only issue is that I would consider is China's numbers as an "outlier" as they are not reporting numbers like Europe. So I would not compare them to anything.

[Brew]

Stop watching the news, if you don't like what you're seeing. The numbers will still be spun and the lies will still be told and reported, but you can choose how much BS you can stomach.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I’ve come to the conclusion that there truly are no ‘experts’ in all this. It’s so unprecedented that even the ‘experts’ advising countries change their mind pretty much daily.

What I do know is that the media really are not and have not helped the situation at all, they print anything as usual if it gets airtime regardless of whether it’s fact checked or more harmful to the situation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by daveathall

In my opinion, the media have been disgusting, they have continually criticised and seemed to revel in embarrassing people in charge, they have done nothing to help, shown no spirit and have caused panic and chaos when there has been no need. I am all for a freedom of press and their ability to hold any Governments feet to the fire but this is ridiculous, all they seem to do is get so called experts to cast different views to those in charge.

Agree. 100%.

[Dawg2]

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...h-15167883.php

I have been following this for awhile. What I do not understand is that the Navy (as do the rest of the US Armed Forces) perform NBC Training regularly. What that ship needs to to is don their NBC suits and have an active drill.

This is an opportunity to test the "B" aspect of our equipment. If this were a "war" we would be in a bad situation with a ship of this importance out of commission.

[Moggo]

The other disappointing thing is the constant comparison of countries and their death tolls etc

Each country has a unique demographic and creating a ‘league table’ is not helpful at all.

Without getting political at all I see one country has been spending a fair amount of time talking about the U.K. today in less than positive terms. I don’t see how this helps their own country at all other than to try to make them look better?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk