Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[onyourbikes]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Because there are YouTube personalities that have been saying recently "I had a watch sit for a month with no offers and when I increased the price it sold!!!"

It's all smoke and mirrors. If you want to see how bad the market is watch a few of the videos from the latest Miami IWJG. Full of people saying "but I paid 'x' for this watch!!!" when they are offered significantly less. It's a buyers market and no cabal of online watch dealers will be able to change that anytime soon. You have dealers sitting on tons of inventory they bought on credit that they overpaid on and are desperately trying to convince people everything is fine and dandy.

Yep, that's the issue, so many of them can't afford to sell. But if they were smart they'd realise they also can't afford to hold either because it isn't coming back anytime soon, probably never. But that's what you get when you jump on a hype train thinking it will last forever.

Here we just got another interest rate hike yesterday, another nail in their coffin.

I'd be willing to bet $1000 that short of something extraordinary, like people falling for the lockdown nonsense again, we do not see regular mass produced watches go above today's (still high) prices in the next 5 years. In fact I almost certain we return to 2018 and prior markets and never look back. As soon as they drop back down to MSRP that will be the high, perhaps permanently.

The thing with hype trends, they generally only happen once. The Instagram idiots have flexed their watches, now they're passe. Just like the celebrities won't reuse a dress, their flex was a one and done scenario.

[Mathematoxic]

I noticed listings with high prices are being bought mostly by the big/reputable dealers on MODA.
An alternative explanation to the price increase is that USD has dropped and the dealers are increasing asking prices as most of their clients are from overseas.

I noticed prices of ceramic Daytonas bumping the most recently(I mean if they are really genuinely being sold). I think it may be because of the upcoming Watches & Wonders. Many are predicting that it will be discontinued due to 2023 being the 60tj anniversary of this model.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

I noticed listings with high prices are being bought mostly by the big/reputable dealers on MODA.
An alternative explanation to the price increase is that USD has dropped and the dealers are increasing asking prices as most of their clients are from overseas.

I noticed prices of ceramic Daytonas bumping the most recently(I mean if they are really genuinely being sold). I think it may be because of the upcoming Watches & Wonders. Many are predicting that it will be discontinued due to 2023 being the 60tj anniversary of this model.

It's so bizarre. What is really weird are the Hulk listings. They are all over the place. See full set ones for 19k then see watch and card only and missing links for like $22k. Are the mods even reading these posts before approving?

[Rolexatlast]

Why are asking prices being moderated? Seems a form of market rigging…

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

I noticed listings with high prices are being bought mostly by the big/reputable dealers on MODA.
An alternative explanation to the price increase is that USD has dropped and the dealers are increasing asking prices as most of their clients are from overseas.

I noticed prices of ceramic Daytonas bumping the most recently(I mean if they are really genuinely being sold). I think it may be because of the upcoming Watches & Wonders. Many are predicting that it will be discontinued due to 2023 being the 60tj anniversary of this model.

I’ve noticed this too. A lot of buying and selling between dealers. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of end consumers purchasing at the moment which makes me inclined to think speculation is once again occurring. At some point these dealers will need to sell their inventory to an end-buyer.


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[psm11]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Why are asking prices being moderated? Seems a form of market rigging…

I have not heard of them not approving a post because it was too low but the moderation is supposed to stop dealers from posting a piece way over market prices.

[Trailboss516]

Playing hot potato before the music stops.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

The proof is in the sales. These snakes are desperate, and are once again attempting to unduly inflate the market. The reality is, no one is buying at those prices. Auctions show that, as do the price at which dealers would buy a watch if you called and made an offer.

The desperation is higher than ever. DM some of these guys - you’ll be shocked the price they offer compared to what they listed it for

Well I saw a Meteorite 116518 from one of our own here on TRF sale for 60k and in the comments he said he paid 150k. Yikes!! Hope that’s not altogether true.

I’m still somewhat on the hunt for a new 505 but it’s Msrp or bust. Doesn’t look like I’m getting the call or finding one in that range. Oh well. Got plenty of other RG models to wear in the meantime

[ExplorerI]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

I noticed listings with high prices are being bought mostly by the big/reputable dealers on MODA.
An alternative explanation to the price increase is that USD has dropped and the dealers are increasing asking prices as most of their clients are from overseas.

I noticed prices of ceramic Daytonas bumping the most recently(I mean if they are really genuinely being sold). I think it may be because of the upcoming Watches & Wonders. Many are predicting that it will be discontinued due to 2023 being the 60tj anniversary of this model.

Big dealers with a lot to lose if prices keep dropping. Wouldn’t be very difficult to get a few of the big boys together to collude to make some fake sold posts at higher prices. Modas gotten to be one of the most watched places to get an idea of pricing you could move the whole market at least for a while.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by psm11

It's so bizarre. What is really weird are the Hulk listings. They are all over the place. See full set ones for 19k then see watch and card only and missing links for like $22k. Are the mods even reading these posts before approving?

Yes mate thanks for highlighting the Hulk. It’s prices are suddenly up too without any good reason. I mean they are long ago discontinued. Really strange.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by ExplorerI

Big dealers with a lot to lose if prices keep dropping. Wouldn’t be very difficult to get a few of the big boys together to collude to make some fake sold posts at higher prices. Modas gotten to be one of the most watched places to get an idea of pricing you could move the whole market at least for a while.

Not saying that I completely agree to this theory but I am really hinging towards it

I’m pretty sensitive to numbers. Will continue to monitor and update here if any new findings.

[Vince_76]

It’s actual trades that matter - not asking prices.

I haven’t seen pieces sell at the inflated prices, so it means jack sh**.

[Rolextellstime]

I just joined Moda and glad I did, tons of amazing watches there. One question, I see posts there for vouching for other members with their own dollars.. What does that mean, if the deal goes south then the people who vouched for the seller are personally liable? Doesn't make sense to me? Is it just a saying for people who have transacted with that seller?

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[buknoy]

Originally Posted by Rolextellstime

I just joined Moda and glad I did, tons of amazing watches there. One question, I see posts there for vouching for other members with their own dollars.. What does that mean, if the deal goes south then the people who vouched for the seller are personally liable? Doesn't make sense to me? Is it just a saying for people who have transacted with that seller?

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What you just said is right. The mods will go after to the person that vouch for that dealer.

[Conway]

Originally Posted by huncho

what's stopping you from enjoying this hobby with a nice collection if prices are up and why do you want to sell in that case? seems a bit weird that if they go up you wanna be done with it but if they go down you wanna collect

Fair question.

If prices don't settle back to historical norms and they go back to silly inflated numbers, then anything in that sector is dead to me, I don't want to play silly games.

For decades I've been able to enjoy the hobby without doing battle with snot-nosed SAs who act like they're doing me a favour, or Johnny-come-latelys telling all about the latest new Instagram hype pieces, but the last few years changed all that.

So if it drops back to how it always was, I'll carry on collecting and enjoying.
If it goes back to hype, then I'll cash in and concentrate on other hobbies. I'll obviously keep a couple of my favourite watches, but I'm done with the hype.

[onyourbikes]

Originally Posted by Conway

Fair question.

If prices don't settle back to historical norms and they go back to silly inflated numbers, then anything in that sector is dead to me, I don't want to play silly games.

For decades I've been able to enjoy the hobby without doing battle with snot-nosed SAs who act like they're doing me a favour, or Johnny-come-latelys telling all about the latest new Instagram hype pieces, but the last few years changed all that.

So if it drops back to how it always was, I'll carry on collecting and enjoying.
If it goes back to hype, then I'll cash in and concentrate on other hobbies. I'll obviously keep a couple of my favourite watches, but I'm done with the hype.

I feel the same. And the smart AD would do well to recognize that people like you paid their bills for decades, whereas the hype driven people are already moving on.
So either they start treating you well, or they might they have no customers at all soon.

[Mathematoxic]

Soon… AD SAs will become the most disliked profession in the world for being so snobbish in the past few years. Not all but most of them are…

[Mifune]

I already think they are the most hated profession in the world.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by Mifune

I already think they are the most hated profession in the world.

Surely real estate agents exist in your part of the world?

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by onyourbikes

I feel the same. And the smart AD would do well to recognize that people like you paid their bills for decades, whereas the hype driven people are already moving on.
So either they start treating you well, or they might they have no customers at all soon.

Agreed, I don't get it all. Seems like business 101. Optimizing for life time value is always the most profitable way to run a retail business.

[Conway]

It's already started, I've declined two Rolex watches in the last few months, the last one was a 126610LV that wasn't even on my 'wish list'. I politely declined and then a few days later got a phone call asking me to come into the AD to discuss my future purchase plans.

I've been a good customer over the years and I think now they realise that the bottom is falling out of the market and all their new hype customers have run away.

I'm more of a reader than a poster, but I'm watching this situation with interest and it's one of the few subjects that I feel like commenting on.

[SwissmadeTexan]

Originally Posted by Rolextellstime

I just joined Moda and glad I did, tons of amazing watches there. One question, I see posts there for vouching for other members with their own dollars.. What does that mean, if the deal goes south then the people who vouched for the seller are personally liable? Doesn't make sense to me? Is it just a saying for people who have transacted with that seller?

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yes, vouches will collectively owe the burned party. Vouches are the highest level of trustworthiness/reliability of the vouched for party. Vouches aren’t just random posters that had a good deal with someone. If someone is vouched for by even a couple well known and also vouched for/vetted dealers then you can be pretty much 100% confident in the vouched for party.

Also MDA dealers and RWB dealers are among the most highly vetted people.

[Rolextellstime]

Originally Posted by SwissmadeTexan

yes, vouches will collectively owe the burned party. Vouches are the highest level of trustworthiness/reliability of the vouched for party. Vouches aren’t just random posters that had a good deal with someone. If someone is vouched for by even a couple well known and also vouched for/vetted dealers then you can be pretty much 100% confident in the vouched for party.

Also MDA dealers and RWB dealers are among the most highly vetted people.

Wow, this system is amazing. Thanks for clarifying. I couldn't really believe that's what it was and wanted to make sure but it makes sense now.

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[BogdanS]

I think the MODA team are trying to make RWB the next MODA but based on subscription. That could be the reason why they let everyone in on MODA.


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[Mathematoxic]

MODA is becoming the next market place. That’s the only way to push prices up. Prices you see there is going to be secondary and dealers price is going to be in a separate chat

[Mathematoxic]

MODA is becoming the next market place. That’s the only way to push prices up. Prices you see there is going to be secondary and dealers price is going to be in a separate chat

[SwissmadeTexan]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

MODA is becoming the next market place. That’s the only way to push prices up. Prices you see there is going to be secondary and dealers price is going to be in a separate chat

True dealer pricing has and will always be in a separate chat. These dealers give each other good deals because they do a lot of business with each other, are highly vetted, do each other favors in various ways, don’t have to deal with a retail customer and all the questions/concerns and other BS that comes with etc etc.

However, most highly sought after pieces like new or modern Rolex sports model pieces aren’t going for much cheaper if any cheaper than in the regular moda group. Since these pieces can be sold rather quickly and easily in regular moda at the market price. Why would they sell them for cheaper in a “special dealer chat” especially when margins on these pieces are very slim to begin with.

You’re just wrong about a “pushing prices up” narrative. However, i do agree that Moda is and will be the best place to see current market pricing. It’s not a place where watches are posted for months looking for that just right buyer. I’m in RWB fwiw and RWB isn’t really anything like regular Moda. it’s not some place where you magically get 20% off any pieces available on regular moda either.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by SwissmadeTexan

True dealer pricing has and will always be in a separate chat. These dealers give each other good deals because they do a lot of business with each other, are highly vetted, do each other favors in various ways, don’t have to deal with a retail customer and all the questions/concerns and other BS that comes with etc etc.

However, most highly sought after pieces like new or modern Rolex sports model pieces aren’t going for much cheaper if any cheaper than in the regular moda group. Since these pieces can be sold rather quickly and easily in regular moda at the market price. Why would they sell them for cheaper in a “special dealer chat” especially when margins on these pieces are very slim to begin with.

You’re just wrong about a “pushing prices up” narrative. However, i do agree that Moda is and will be the best place to see current market pricing. It’s not a place where watches are posted for months looking for that just right buyer. I’m in RWB fwiw and RWB isn’t really anything like regular Moda. it’s not some place where you magically get 20% off any pieces available on regular moda either.

Yeah, they are accepting a lot of people on moda to capitalize on RWB memberships. RWB doesn’t give you significantly better deals though.

Agree that MODA is the best barometer for market price

[nocaps]

i’m not a facebook/moda member. can somebody tell me what mda and rwb stands for in moda parlance?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by nocaps

i’m not a facebook/moda member. can somebody tell me what mda and rwb stands for in moda parlance?

Real watch buyers. It's a subscription only area (separate group).