the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by gh0stleader

PPE supplies and hospital protocols in this country have been a complete and utter EMBARRASSMENT.

CDC and hospital administrations are flat out ignoring the protests coming from health care workers.

They are not ignoring their requests. The equipment is simply not available in the quantities which it is needed.

My wife’s hospital is not telling them to reuse their PPE because they want to sit on as huge a pile of PPE as possible. They are reusing because they do not see an adequate resupply in the pipeline later down the road.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

And they will be out of service for weeks moving forward.

Or dead

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by statsman

Is this in North Carolina? Where there are almost no cases?

It is NC, but this is actually a larger store.

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[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

And they will be out of service for weeks moving forward.

Average recovery time is 22 days.

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[RNHC]

With updated numbers (note the slight drop in mortality rate):

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...ndetected.html

The latest US mortality rate derived from worldometer website is 1.2%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you account for undetected cases, the coronavirus mortality rate drops by a factor of five or ten - giving us actual mortality rate of 0.12% to 0.24%.

Seasonal flu mortality rate was given as 0.1% earlier in this thread.

R0 or basic reproduction number (also called basic reproduction ratio) measures the "contagiousness" of a disease. Per Wikipedia:

Covid-19 has estimated R0 of 1.4 to 3.9.

Seasonal flu has estimated R0 of 0.9 to 2.1.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 588 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Or dead

That is the other scary part. A lot of our doctors are older and in the high risk group. I read 30% of the doctors are 60+YO.

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[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by RNHC

With updated numbers (note the slight drop in mortality rate):

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...ndetected.html

The latest US mortality rate derived from worldometer website is 1.2%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you account for undetected cases, the coronavirus mortality rate drops by a factor of five or ten - giving us actual mortality rate estimate of 0.12% to 0.24%.

Seasonal flu mortality rate was given as 0.1% earlier in this thread.

R0 or basic reproduction number (also called basic reproduction ratio) measures the "contagiousness" of a disease. Per Wikipedia:

Covid-19 has estimated R0 of 1.4 to 3.9.

Seasonal flu has estimated R0 of 0.9 to 2.1.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 588 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Also add in the fact if people die in their homes, they are not tested.

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[gh0stleader]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

They are not ignoring their requests. The equipment is simply not available in the quantities which it is needed.

My wife’s hospital is not telling them to reuse their PPE because they want to sit on as huge a pile of PPE as possible. They are reusing because they do not see an adequate resupply in the pipeline later down the road.

No shit...

Health care workers are pissed b/c they were screaming about mobilizing supply purchases back in January(at least at our hospital and the ones where my friends way back from med school currently work at).

[RNHC]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

Also add in the fact if people die in their homes, they are not tested.

One can conclude from confirmed death rate and R0 that the number of undiagnosed deaths will be far smaller than undiagnosed infections.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by RNHC

With updated numbers (note the slight drop in mortality rate):

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

These aren’t your numbers, so not an attack on your credibility, but:

Can someone please explain to me what mathematical equation, or through what scientific method, or whose crystal ball can The NY Times estimate how many undetected cases there are? OR are they just re-posting an IMPOSSIBLE to determine statistic?

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

I would say around 10%

How would people manage in some of the townships? Literally no room to move anywhere, it doesn’t bare thinking about.


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[Moggo]

I have a question about shopping......if you go shopping or get it delivered are you then using a sanitizer on everything before using it?


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[RNHC]

Interesting read:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...1957-pandemic/

Interesting to note the differences in government reaction then and now. One thing for sure, then government did not cut off the nose to spite the face - by shutting down the society and causing more harm down the line by damaging the economy.

[RNHC]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Can someone please explain to me what mathematical equation, or through what scientific method, or whose crystal ball can The NY Times estimate how many undetected cases there are? OR are they just re-posting an IMPOSSIBLE to determine statistic?

Perhaps this may help:

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb3221

"We developed a mathematical model that simulates the spatiotemporal dynamics of infections among 375 Chinese cities..."

[RNHC]

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from Covid-19?

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from seasonal flu?

I apologize if the questions seemed insensitive and my condolences if you have lost a loved one. My intent is to learn how widespread and how seriously both diseases affect us.

[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I have a question about shopping......if you go shopping or get it delivered are you then using a sanitizer on everything before using it?


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Unless its frozen or fridge stuff i just let it set 48 hours just inside my front door ...i dont think the virus can survive over 48 hours on cardboard stuff .....and wash hands good after getting bags inside.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by RNHC

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from Covid-19?

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from seasonal flu?

I apologize if the questions seemed insensitive and my condolences if you have lost a loved one. My intent is to learn how widespread and how seriously both diseases affect us.

I asked this question earlier in the thread. At the time, there were 0 responses. Since then, we’ve had a few give personal anecdotes.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by RNHC

Interesting read:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...1957-pandemic/

Interesting to note the differences in government reaction then and now. One thing for sure, then government did not cut off the nose to spite the face - by shutting down the society and causing more harm down the line by damaging the economy.

Well, they had a vaccine out quickly...

But it doesn’t matter anymore as US will be back in business in short order. Maybe next week?

[kieselguhr]

Please don’t self medicate. Especially with industrial formulated products...

I swear, irrational reactions to the virus is going to kill more people than the virus itself.


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...virus-n1167166

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by RNHC

With updated numbers (note the slight drop in mortality rate):

According to NY Times, for every confirmed coronavirus case, there are five to ten undetected cases out there.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/h...ndetected.html

The latest US mortality rate derived from worldometer website is 1.2%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you account for undetected cases, the coronavirus mortality rate drops by a factor of five or ten - giving us actual mortality rate of 0.12% to 0.24%.

Seasonal flu mortality rate was given as 0.1% earlier in this thread.

R0 or basic reproduction number (also called basic reproduction ratio) measures the "contagiousness" of a disease. Per Wikipedia:

Covid-19 has estimated R0 of 1.4 to 3.9.

Seasonal flu has estimated R0 of 0.9 to 2.1.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

According to worldometer website, US has had 588 deaths from coronavirus so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I see people posting this kind of information every day. What is your point? That this pandemic ISN'T really a problem? That we are over-reacting? Should we all be feeling better? Since 1918, when has the flu completely overwhelmed the healthcare systems of entire countries? Killed so many doctors and nurses?

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I see people posting this kind of information every day. What is your point? That this pandemic ISN'T really a problem? That we are over-reacting? Should we all be feeling better? Since 1918, when has the flu completely overwhelmed the healthcare systems of entire countries? Killed so many doctors and nurses?

Maybe just trying to find some light at the end of the tunnel?


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[Fleetlord]

India just locked down entire country for 21 days with “only” around 500 cases total.

Plus they have heat and humidity on their side to stem the spread.

I wonder how that will affect their economy?

Would more Indians die from the lockdown itself than the virus?

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by RNHC

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from Covid-19?

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from seasonal flu?

I apologize if the questions seemed insensitive and my condolences if you have lost a loved one. My intent is to learn how widespread and how seriously both diseases affect us.

My great-great-grandfather died of the Spanish Flu. I hope not to continue the tradition!

[gh0stleader]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

India just locked down entire country for 21 days with “only” around 500 cases total.

Plus they have heat and humidity on their side to stem the spread.

I wonder how that will affect their economy?

Would more Indians die from the lockdown itself than the virus?

I'm genuinely curious how this will be enforced...
It's not like it's the wild west over there and people are unlawful, but has anyone ever looked at traffic pictures from over there?!?
Cars, motorcycles, rickshaws are all over the place.

As far as dying from lockdown, I don't know.
I am concerned about other underlying disease that the people could pick up considering sanitary status of many areas. Look at the slums in Mumbai. Less than one square mile and a population of 700K.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

Average recovery time is 22 days.

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But, under current guidelines, they need to be clear for an additional 14 days. Potential of five weeks.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I have a question about shopping......if you go shopping or get it delivered are you then using a sanitizer on everything before using it?


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Good question.

I have five boxes of wine coming today. Shipped early last week before I could think to place a hold on it. If the UPS driver wont load it into my garage where I can let it sit for a couple of days, then I will wipe down the boxes before moving them there myself.

This caution is occasioned by the fact that my regular driver told me last week that one of the drivers in their distribution center has tested positive.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by gh0stleader

I'm genuinely curious how this will be enforced...
It's not like it's the wild west over there and people are unlawful, but has anyone ever looked at traffic pictures from over there?!?
Cars, motorcycles, rickshaws are all over the place.

As far as dying from lockdown, I don't know.
I am concerned about other underlying disease that the people could pick up considering sanitary status of many areas. Look at the slums in Mumbai. Less than one square mile and a population of 700K.

Plus, such a large percentage of their population does not have even more than a few days of food or water on hand.

[gh0stleader]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Plus, such a large percentage of their population does not have even more than a few days of food or water on hand.

Seriously, I have a morbid curiosity how this is gonna play out.

S.Korea is like a wheel oiled machine. India on the other hand has much more contrasting way of doing things.

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by RNHC

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from Covid-19?

Does anyone personally know anyone who died from seasonal flu?

I apologize if the questions seemed insensitive and my condolences if you have lost a loved one. My intent is to learn how widespread and how seriously both diseases affect us.

My Mum died of Flu on Boxing day – although technically it was pneumonia brought on by it - so I don’t know if it will be recorded as Flu or pneumonia.
I don't know anybody yet that has died of Corona - though I know of one tested positive that is now well.

Statistics do not always give a true reflection. The Corona death rate to infected % is way lower than those headlined but that does not alter the fact that many people are going to die from it.

Am I correct in saying similarly to Flu, Corona attacks the elderly more?
Are there any statistics available for Corona (and Flu) that show a curve of:
death rate compared to age?
death rate compared to age – with an underlying health issue?

[RNHC]

Originally Posted by andyxxx

My Mum died of Flu on Boxing day – although technically it was pneumonia brought on by it - so I don’t know if it will be recorded as Flu or pneumonia.
I don't know anybody yet that has died of Corona - though I know of one tested positive that is now well.

Statistics do not always give a true reflection. The Corona death rate to infected % is way lower than those headlined but that does not alter the fact that many people are going to die from it.

Am I correct in saying similarly to Flu, Corona attacks the elderly more?
Are there any statistics available for Corona (and Flu) that show a curve of:
death rate compared to age?
death rate compared to age – with an underlying health issue?

I am so sorry your loss. I apologize sincerely if my questions brought out unnecessary pain.

It's three weeks old but hopefully the following link will shed light on your inquiry. Again, my sympathy and condolences.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/