the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Agreed. Comparisons of COVID-19 disease to the seasonal flu (yes, Swine Flu too) are essentially irrelevant.

This virus has a higher R0 meaning it is more contagious.

This virus has a higher mortality rate.

So, it spreads more easily and kills more people who contract it.

The approx 25% who require hospitalization need more than some fluid replenishment and a pat on the back...they need heavy respiratory intervention that takes lots of skilled doctors and specialized equipment...that doesn't grow on trees, so there just isn't enough to go around if society lets this get out of hand.

Combine that with asymptomatic spreading and it's real handful to deal with.


Here is a nicely done video detailing the effort put into treating these cases when they present to the hospital.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0A0LyMru3I&t=664s


That's pretty much it at this point. The governments of most countries are finally aligning with the threat and unfortunately it seems that most will have to force the discipline of social distancing as people seemingly will NOT do it on their own for whatever reason.

Agree with your view Fleetlord. From his appearances over the weekend, Dr. Fauci seems to agree as well and seems to be laying the groundwork for a nationwide mandated distancing in the US. And businesses and states are well on their way as we speak.

In my view, panic about about the virus is counter productive. But by the same token, so is panic about the effect of containment/mitigation measures on the economy. Both forms of panic are driven by fear.

In any event, a quick survey of the steps being taken by business and state and local governments in the US indicates that more stringent containment/mitigation measures are being implemented and more will come. Personally, I agree that these measures are necessary and prudent. But agree or disagree as to their necessity, these measures are coming.

Panic about he virus or the measures to contain and mitigate it will not accomplish anything. As Gunny said in Heartbreak Ridge "You improvise. You overcome. You adapt."

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Agree with your view Fleetlord. From his appearances over the weekend, Dr. Fauci seems to agree as well and seems to be laying the groundwork for a nationwide mandated distancing in the US. And businesses and states are well on their way as we speak.

In my view, panic about about the virus is counter productive. But by the same token, so is panic about the effect of containment/mitigation measures on the economy. Both forms of panic are driven by fear.

In any event, a quick survey of the steps being taken by business and state and local governments in the US indicates that more stringent containment/mitigation measures are being implemented and more will come. Personally, I agree that these measures are necessary and prudent. But agree or disagree as to their necessity, these measures are coming.

Panic about he virus or the measures to contain and mitigate it will not accomplish anything. As Gunny said in Heartbreak Ridge "You improvise. You overcome. You adapt."

So, what businesses do you think will they be shutting down? All small business? How about construction? For how long?

[fmc000]

According to https://worldometers.info/coronavirus , so far we have 85,425 active cases and 84,294 cases that had an outcome.

Death rate of the closed case is 8% ( 77,776 recovered/discharged and 6,518 deaths). This is much higher than the 2-3% death rate reported earlier.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Patton250

In my opinion we are definitely in a day and age of overreaction in general. We see it with all kinds of other situations. Whether the media, the government and the population are overreacting in this situation we will be finding out shortly. I pray we are because the predictions are too terrible to contemplate.

I lean in that direction - varying degrees of overreaction. If any officials are stimulating it, I believe that is out of an abundance of caution.

In past disaster situations, motivating large populations to take the recommended actions has been met with low levels of compliance. It seems very dire messaging improves compliance.

Anyone in Hurricane zones know what I mean.

On the possible higher death rates some are predicting, we should recall our own rising death rate over the past 3 years. Currently, on any given day, 7298 people die in the US from all causes - or in the time I took to type this, 15 people expired.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...tes/death-rate

Sad fact - but I hope the current hyper-efforts in messaging about coronavirus can keep any increases to as low a number as possible.




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[chappuy1750]

"On Sunday, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf ordered all bars and restaurants in Montgomery, Chester, Bucks, Delaware and Allegheny Counties to end dine-in service for two weeks starting Monday."

These counties are where the majority of confirmed cases in PA are located and the closures have been incremental and seem focused on places where the general public would congregate. Philadelphia is not impacted this way yet, but it seems inevitable with 4 more cases confirmed.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200316.html

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

From seeing all the panic and ridiculous actions of people the last few days... if this is the state of Human Beings then I hope it is the end of the world. We would be better off starting from scratch.

Isn't it about time retailers took control?


Probably, like a lot of people considering the current situation, I wondered what the very worst case scenario might be, and given that there are more than 450 neuclear power plants around this planet. If the human race IS wiped out,
Who's going to switch off, said 450 neuclear plants?.......BOOM? (as the current vernacular would put it).

As I may have said here previously, it's ironic, isn't it, that, (as far as we know) humans, are the only beings on earth that appreciate the outstanding beauty of
this wonderful planet, and, are the only species, seemingly intent on destroying it?

So, yes, starting from scratch might be brilliant! A human free 'Blue Planet' sounds absolutely lovely doesn't it. But nobody would know how lovely untill
a few million years have elapsed, and another 'intelligent life form', drags itself out of the primordial soup, once again.


Meanwhile.........
Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse
When you're chewing on life's gristle
Don't grumble, give a whistle
And this'll help things turn out for the best
And...........always look on the.......
(I hope you all know the rest)

Stay safe everyone, wash your hands, don't touch your face and keep well away from people as far as possible.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

So, what businesses do you think will they be shutting down? All small business? How about construction? For how long?

No crystal ball.

For now, I think the entertainment and travel industries will be hit hardest. Some state and local government are closing or limiting gatherings at bars, clubs and other places people congregate. Starbucks is now takeout/drive-through only and some stores with high crowd areas have been shut down. Many restaurants are closing or going to take out. Resorts are closing.

In his news conference Saturday, the US President supported Apple's decision to go on line only. And encouraged people to not travel unnecessarily. But he also spotlighted supply chain for medicine and food and other essentials and the pledge of those businesses to keep the pipeline going, albeit with prudent measures inlace.

As to construction, I guess it is a mixed bag. My own local government is encouraging permit applications on line and asking people not to come into the government building unless necessary. I suspect, that those in the industry that are able to adapt and accommodate distancing and other known helpful measures will do best.

[djgallo]

Fleetforce [QUOTE| force the discipline of social distancing as people seemingly will NOT do it on their own for whatever reason.[/QUOTE]


the whatever reason is: SELFISHNESS.....its all about them....and their mentality is: it’s going to happen to others and not ME

Unfortunately, we all know some people like that....because there are so many out there...

[77T]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Unfortunately, we all know some people like that....because there are so many out there...

Aptly describes those who bribe their AD with multiple PM Rolex purchases to get the next 116500 that hits the store?

Gee...that problem seems so long ago, and now so small in the rearview mirror that it’s nonexistent.



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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

No crystal ball.

For now, I think the entertainment and travel industries will be hit hardest. Some state and local government are closing or limiting gatherings at bars, clubs and other places people congregate. Starbucks is now takeout/drive-through only and some stores with high crowd areas have been shut down. Many restaurants are closing or going to take out. Resorts are closing.

In his news conference Saturday, the US President supported Apple's decision to go on line only. And encouraged people to not travel unnecessarily. But he also spotlighted supply chain for medicine and food and other essentials and the pledge of those businesses to keep the pipeline going, albeit with prudent measures inlace.

As to construction, I guess it is a mixed bag. My own local government is encouraging permit applications on line and asking people not to come into the government building unless necessary. I suspect, that those in the industry that are able to adapt and accommodate distancing and other known helpful measures will do best.

Yeah I agree with that. It will focus on venues that allow people to gather in groups first and see how it goes.

At this point either the government shuts it down or the virus will organically because employees will be too sick to work and customers will be too sick to show up...so in the end, it's the same result. No Starbucks for awhile. No fiddling around an Apple store...either way business will be negatively impacted. Cutting it off now through forced intervention will give the healthcare system the break it will need.

Letting it go willy nilly will eventually bust BOTH business and the healthcare system. No Bueno.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

In past disaster situations, motivating large populations to take the recommended actions has been met with low levels of compliance. It seems very dire messaging improves compliance.

Sad fact - but I hope the current hyper-efforts in messaging about coronavirus can keep any increases to as low a number as possible.

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The pictures of long lines at bars and clubs in Seattle and other vector areas this weekend illustrate your point. People either do not listen, or they are convinced they will be ok and ignore the problem of passing it on to those in a risk group. So now the bars and clubs are being closed or limited.

I ignored evacuation orders for hurricanes when younger. On one occasion, my spouse and I rode out a mother of a storm in South Florida. Was not mature enough to understand the resources and risk to first responders this could entail.

Right now we have several cruise ships that got in at the last minute that are under quarantine. Tax payers will pick up the tab for dealing with this. And first responders will bear the risk of aiding passengers.

There are costs for people ignoring risks. Unfortunately, sometimes others wind up paying the bill and the risk when things go south.

So yes, I agree, sometimes you need loud messaging to get people to pay attention. It's just human nature.

[GB-man]

I assume this will kill off a plethora of struggling malls across America. There are a few in every town that were buried before this virus even began. Commercial RE may be the big short.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

Isn't it about time retailers took control?

Many are stepping up. Those that don't risk loosing public confidence and a healthy work force.

[JParm]

https://www.watchonista.com/articles...hand-sanitizer

Do good things. Might seem small to some, but it's at least a show of working together for the greater good.

[pickettt]

Ever see a basketball player flop without being touched, and a foul is called? This thing is being judged by the effect, not by the cause.

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.watchonista.com/articles...hand-sanitizer

Do good things. Might seem small to some, but it's at least a show of working together for the greater good.

Good to see...thanks for sharing.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I assume this will kill off a plethora of struggling malls across America. There are a few in every town that were buried before this virus even began. Commercial RE may be the big short.

Agree. But I note that two Walmarts within my driving distance are now offering on line orderring of food and an employee carries them out to your vehicle wearing a mask and gloves. My niece did her shopping this way over the weekend.

Smart move by Walmart. I usually buy local. And will do so if merchants at least try to ease transmission risks. If not, I will be driving to Walmart.

The ball is in business owners court. Those that adapt will generate good will and reduce risks to their employees. And of course, they will make money.

I am not saying this is easy. Businesses need to try and adapt or they will suffer.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I assume this will kill off a plethora of struggling malls across America. There are a few in every town that were buried before this virus even began. Commercial RE may be the big short.

tom, I think commercial RE investors have been sour on free standing shopping malls for a long time. a few marquee properties like King of Prussia and Short Hills may do fine, but those are exceptions

A lot of folks want to walk away from commercial leases. in the near term, I am hearing that there is a question of the enforceability of force majeure clauses. from a common sense perspective this does seem like an "Act of God" -- but some lawyers might be guilty of malpractice if they blindly copy&pasted language that lacks enough specificity to be legally effective

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

A lot of folks want to walk away from commercial leases. in the near term, I am hearing that there is a question of the enforceability of force majeure clauses. from a common sense perspective this does seem like an "Act of God" -- but some lawyers might be guilty of malpractice if they blindly copy&pasted language that lacks enough specificity to be legally effective

Yup. There will a lot of litigation over the wording of these clauses in the years to come.

[gmh1013]

Im 62 and in poor health and very very worried....I bought 2 months of MRE's last week not wanting to leave house....unless i have to. I have 20 n-95 mask i got 2 weeks ago .....I wish i would have bought more germ-x when i had the chance but have a months or so.

I see some are not taking the threat of the virus serious....it reminds me of the movie "Full Metal Jacket" when the captain is telling them about the Tet offensive and Rafter man pops of "Does this mean Ann Margret is not coming" im taking the threat very serious.

On the local news this morn they are already talking supply issue for medicine coming from India where 40 percent is made....not good. Plus food shortages....
Im very worried because i have no family and really dont know anybody here local....even if i did i would worry "are they carrying the virus?"and dont want to get into a movie like "The Thing" situation where you have to test somebody before you can get 10 feet from them....for me and lots like me its some scary times like ive never seen in my 62 years.
The closest I can think of was Cuban Missile crisis and i was to young to know what was going on...I though living in the basement sounded like fun.
To all us senior citizens on the board I wish the best of luck....and all you younger ones too. I didn't survive this long to be done in by a virus.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

Im 62 and in poor health and very very worried....I bought 2 months of MRE's last week not wanting to leave house....unless i have to. I have 20 n-95 mask i got 2 weeks ago .....I wish i would have bought more germ-x when i had the chance but have a months or so.

I see some are not taking the threat of the virus serious....it reminds me of the movie "Full Metal Jacket" when the captain is telling them about the Tet offensive and Rafter man pops of "Does this mean Ann Margret is not coming" im taking the threat very serious.

On the local news this morn they are already talking supply issue for medicine coming from India where 40 percent is made....not good. Plus food shortages....
Im very worried because i have no family and really dont know anybody here local....even if i did i would worry "are they carrying the virus?"and dont want to get into a movie like "The Thing" situation where you have to test somebody before you can get 10 feet from them....for me and lots like me its some scary times like ive never seen in my 62 years.
The closest I can think of was Cuban Missile crisis and i was to young to know what was going on...I though living in the basement sounded like fun.
To all us senior citizens on the board I wish the best of luck....and all you younger ones too. I didn't survive this long to be done in by a virus.

Greg:

Don't drive yourself crazy worrying about what you cannot control. Put your energy into working through ways to deal with the risks and keeping a good attitude.

Sounds like you have done more preparation than a lot of people. So, look on the positive side.

Stay safe.

[mountainjogger]

Oh, and I dig your mustang. Not brave enough for the color, but it is sharp.

[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Oh, and I dig your mustang. Not brave enough for the color, but it is sharp.

Yeah i need to change out photo and put my 2008 Bullit Mustang up

Those models are my fav next to 65-68

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

Yeah i need to change out photo and put my 2008 Bullit Mustang up

Those models are my fav next to 65-68

My soon to be 66 spouse has a 2016 EB Mustang. She loves it. Let's me drive it to the gas station to fill it up. And that's about it. But it's better than nothing.

Can't wait to see your 2008.

[mountainjogger]

US Supreme Court has postponed oral arguments. I believe this is the first time since 1918. Smart step. Lawyers are hand shakers and travelers. And some of us think we are bullet proof.

For example, this past Friday, NC Chief Justice continued criminal and civil court for 30 days, except for constitutionally mandated proceedings and emergencies.

But evidently the message did not sink in and many went to courthouses this morning.

So, a new message from the NC Chief Justice - to paraphrase: This means stay away from the courthouse unless you have a real emergency.

How hard is this. Think of others, not just yourself.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

US Supreme Court has postponed oral arguments. I believe this is the first time since 1918. Smart step. Lawyers are hand shakers and travelers. And some of us think we are bullet proof.

For example, this past Friday, NC Chief Justice continued criminal and civil court for 30 days, except for constitutionally mandated proceedings and emergencies.

But evidently the message did not sink in and many went to courthouses this morning.

So, a new message from the NC Chief Justice - to paraphrase: This means stay away from the courthouse unless you have a real emergency.

How hard is this. Think of others, not just yourself.

Yeah, I was a lawyer for 25 years and always amazed at how the District Courts here in Colorado where ALWAYS the last entities to close in the face of an impending blizzard. I was once waiting in court for a status conference and opposing counsel called in to say they were late because he had just been rear ended on the icy highway and the judge reamed out the lawyer for screwing up the docket.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Yeah, I was a lawyer for 25 years and always amazed at how the District Courts here in Colorado where ALWAYS the last entities to close in the face of an impending blizzard. I was once waiting in court for a status conference and opposing counsel called in to say they were late because he had just been rear ended on the icy highway and the judge reamed out the lawyer for screwing up the docket.

I am not surprised.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Good morning my friend. I believe the massive concern from some here comes from the scientific establishment being 100% convinced that 40-60% of the US population will contact this virus with at least (best case scenario) 1-1.5% death rate. Well with a population of 320,000,000 that would mean 160,000,000 infected and 1.6 Million dead. Also the reason for the forced social distancing is to attempt to prevent all 160,000,000 from getting sick at the same time. We only have 985,000 hospital beds and most of them are being used at any given time so the more we can spread out the infections the better.

My main problem with all this is all the misinformation. This thread has had a bunch of it as well. I have no idea what to believe. I have a very smart friend convinced that the US will be like Italy in a few weeks only he says we will be losing 3000-5000 people a day. He gets this from medical websites and some immunology doctor he listens to on a podcast. You don’t want to know his predictions this will have on small business.

In my opinion we are definitely in a day and age of overreaction in general. We see it with all kinds of other situations. Whether the media, the government and the population are overreacting in this situation we will be finding out shortly. I pray we are because the predictions are too terrible to contemplate.

You bring up an excellent point, how are we to know what to believe? It is all over the map from it will be cured tomorrow to the end of the world. 5000 a day? I think that would rival Black Plague numbers in medieval Europe.

How many people PERSONALLY know someone that has contracted the virus? No, not your brother’s friends hairdressers cousin, YOU personally know, friend family member or co-worker? With less then 4,000 confirmed cases in the US (yes I know there are many more that have not been identified) I suspect the number of TRFers that have been personally affected is very low. Has anyone on TRF contracted it? With how many members we have? I don’t think so.

Take reasonable precautions people, If you are elderly or in poor health take more serious measures, but don’t barricade yourself in your shelter and shoot anyone that walks by.

[Ichiran]

This coronavirus has been in Asia for 2 months. Over here, many retail shops are just empty and some were shut down; FnB businesses are struggling, tourism is almost non-existent, and news of retrenchment was headlined almost every few days.

These are on top of the daily news on number of new cases, new clusters and updated death toll in other countries. People here are also making big adjustments in their daily lives, such as sacrificing social activities (2 months now), not travelling around, less eating out, no more drinks at the pub etc. It is not great living this way but there is also respect for this coronavirus.

Very certain this is having an impact on the mental health as well. Hope this dark cloud passes, though it will be another 6 months or 1 year by my reckoning. I hope I'm wrong.

[TheVTCGuy]

I e changed my mind on this subject; we are all doomed. Since it really doesn’t matter anymore, everyone might as well send me all your Rolexes, heck, I’ll even pay for the shipping.