Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Wrong. Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it's "BS"

1. Call any grey dealer and see what they would buy said piece for (if they'd even buy... none of that consignment garbage where they have no skin in the game and hint at an amazing price you won't get lol)

2. Cross reference with MODA (sales not asks)

These two data points re: sales tells you where the market is. Asking prices don't mean jack, particularly from the greys who have been holding the line and thereby held on to pieces for quite some time.

Finally, I've haggled multiple greys down to MODA pricing... so yes it's available to the public.

Market price is only as good as the value at which buyer and seller meet. I could say a Tesla Model X is worth $500k. But if no one buys, how is that the market?

I'm sorry you claiming anything is like asking for a jury to take a murderer's word at trial that they aren't guilty with no evidence. You have more stake in the market crashing and have made your financial interests very vocal. Your claims without proper evidence are baseless or heresy at best. Again consignment for years has always been the way to go for top dealer. If you sell a watch outright to any grey dealer whether the market is up, down, or sideways you get ripped off compared to consignment. The game has always been that way.

Originally Posted by psm11

911 I respect your opinion man but I wouldn't say this thread is BS. If you go to a grey dealer armed with MODA comps you can negotiate them down (someone on the forms just did this in the diamond district). I spent a half hour on the phone with a brick and mortar grey the other day who was very upfront about the market and how most dealers won't even stock Royal Oaks anymore because they aren't moving.

They are trying to bleed out slowly but if the market continues the way it's going they will have no choice but to sell for substantial losses. Takuya, luxury bazaar, etc have APs sitting on their sites at prices that were market 8-10 months ago. How are they going to move those without a huge loss?

I could believe this for the small dealers they probably bought super high and are getting killed. The bigger dealers I doubt it. I wouldn't use the website as an indicator of price. I've done business with both grey's you have mentioned and I never use the website. The price is always different when calling direct. That's my experience with any grey dealer I have contacted.

[whiterabbit66]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Because this thread is BS lol. But apparently Moda is the grail for deals right now. But no one can see prices like this in the real world. What are the prices you are being quoted for a 15202 mint quality?

Under warranty, mint unpolished with books/box seems to be 85k plus and that would be with luck beating someone down. Have seen none at 75k in US but maybe missed something?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I'm sorry you claiming anything is like asking for a jury to take a murderer's word at trial that they aren't guilty with no evidence. You have more stake in the market crashing and have made your financial interests very vocal. Your claims without proper evidence are baseless or heresy at best. Again consignment for years has always been the way to go for top dealer. If you sell a watch outright to any grey dealer whether the market is up, down, or sideways you get ripped off compared to consignment. The game has always been that way.



I could believe this for the small dealers they probably bought super high and are getting killed. The bigger dealers I doubt it. I wouldn't use the website as an indicator of price. I've done business with both grey's you have mentioned and I never use the website. The price is always different when calling direct. That's my experience with any grey dealer I have contacted.

Haha stay salty. Look at my posts man, I’ve provided numerous, tangible data points supporting my argument.

I don’t have a dog in this fight - apart from calling out bad behavior. You stating this thread is BS is straight false. Plenty of folks have found this helpful, thanks to the data that myself and others have provided. If you don’t like what you’re hearing, it’s easy to step away lol

Strong analogy you got there. Don’t get too upset it’s just an online forum.


Anyways…

4500v blue dial mint with all 3 straps - 27k at auction (recall that auctions are high watermarks)

15500 brand new blue dial - 52k and not one sign of interest

15400 box and archives - sold for 29.5k

Aquanaut 5164 travel time full set - 63.95k unsold

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Don’t get too upset it’s just an online forum.

This is funny. Imagine what happens when it’s about something real!


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[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Haha stay salty. Look at my posts man, I’ve provided numerous, tangible data points supporting my argument.

I don’t have a dog in this fight - apart from calling out bad behavior. You stating this thread is BS is straight false. Plenty of folks have found this helpful, thanks to the data that myself and others have provided. If you don’t like what you’re hearing, it’s easy to step away lol

Strong analogy you got there. Don’t get too upset it’s just an online forum.


Anyways…

4500v blue dial mint with all 3 straps - 27k at auction (recall that auctions are high watermarks)

15500 brand new blue dial - 52k and not one sign of interest

15400 box and archives - sold for 29.5k

Aquanaut 5164 travel time full set - 63.95k unsold

How is this data? This is what you call data? Where is the reference? Where is the evidence? Here I can post data the way you do too...

15202 150k mint box and papers
15407 300k brand new box and papers
15500 sold for 45k naked

^Something important is missing don't you think?

The only time you guys posted references to these watches we all saw they were the most busted watches in the entire watch market.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

This is funny. Imagine what happens when it’s about something real!


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Hahaha meltdown is the likely outcome.

Originally Posted by 911AP

The only time you guys posted references to these watches we all saw they were the most busted watches in the entire watch market.

This is a straight lie, and multiple folks can back it up. Whatever helps you sleep at night. Not that serious lol

[Mathematoxic]

Chill guys. It’s just watch prices. Please don’t lose sleep over it.

[chris242]

Can you tell who bought at the peak?


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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by chris242

Can you tell who bought at the peak?


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Only buy at AD if you're price sensitive. Hell I love VC and Lange, even buying at AD doesn't help. Money spent in watches is gone or half gone in my mind. Always was.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Chill guys. It’s just watch prices. Please don’t lose sleep over it.

Depends on how much you have lost.

[1665fan]

Root beer NIB just sold for 19.5 on Moda…..that’s high might be picking back up

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Root beer NIB just sold for 19.5 on Moda…..that’s high might be picking back up

Seems like GMT, Hulk, Daytona are all off the lows and slightly up. Maybe 5-10%.

Also simultaneously seems like the majority of references are still declining or slow to move.

[Benzsiam]

To me I don't really call MODA price as market price.

MODA WATCH CLUB consist of secondary market dealers and some buyers like us. The dealers get some of their stocks from here and sell at their websites with some percentage mark up, so the price that we get it from MODA is more like a wholesale price not the market price for the general buyers. The majority of buyers don't even know about MODA WATCH CLUB.

[fsprow]

MODA, where I have purchased a watch, reminds me of dealer auto auctions. I have had access to them in the past with variable results. Over time I’ve found it works best for me to deal with a few resellers who I trust and often know. Yes, maybe I pay a bit more than through a dealer site, but I am always pleased with the result.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

To me I don't really call MODA price as market price.

MODA WATCH CLUB consist of secondary market dealers and some buyers like us. The dealers get some of their stocks from here and sell at their websites with some percentage mark up, so the price that we get it from MODA is more like a wholesale price not the market price for the general buyers. The majority of buyers don't even know about MODA WATCH CLUB.

Agree with this 100%. It's slogan is buy right sell right or something to that effect.

[SwissmadeTexan]

Actually many of the dealers you see in Moda are brick and mortar stores across the country and even the world. They take in trades they don’t want to deal with and sell on moda. Or as a friend of mine does looks for good deal vintage pieces in need of some love to buy at good prices, service them, maybe do a dial swap and then stock in his store locally while also promoting on his FB page to customers. If he cant find a buyer or needs to offload sitting inventory quickly he turns to moda.

So yeah, its not necessarily “market prices” like you would see on some of the hyped up watch websites like Crown and Caliber or similar. But it is a place where certain end users and dealers can come together and make no hassle deals happen. But you’re not going to get the same guarantees/warranties etc that you would from one of those websites. So you’re paying for that thru higher prices. Its also a place to build relationships and find good deals on many pieces not available to everyone.

RWB is a little better as you can post a WTB and pick the best dealer price and specific piece you want at that moment.

[Bstewart]

Originally Posted by psm11

Good advice, thanks for the input. Will report back after my meeting w/ the dealer today.

So how'd it go?

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

So how'd it go?

Went well. Owner was a great guy and we had a nice chat.

Was able to come down a bit. Still not sure if I want to pull the trigger tho. I definitely would want to get the watch cleaned up and not sure I want to go through the hassle of that with no papers, etc. I am going back and forth as to whether I should wait till another one comes along that is mint and full set.

[onyourbikes]

Originally Posted by psm11

Went well. Owner was a great guy and we had a nice chat.

Was able to come down a bit. Still not sure if I want to pull the trigger tho. I definitely would want to get the watch cleaned up and not sure I want to go through the hassle of that with no papers, etc. I am going back and forth as to whether I should wait till another one comes along that is mint and full set.

You have answered your own question. You'll be forever doubting if you should have waited.

[Bstewart]

Originally Posted by onyourbikes

You have answered your own question. You'll be forever doubting if you should have waited.

Agreed.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

Agreed.

Yeah right now I'm about 95% leaning toward passing.As tough as that is because man did it feel great to try that on and have it on the wrist (was a bit surprised by the weight).

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by psm11

Yeah right now I'm about 95% leaning toward passing.As tough as that is because man did it feel great to try that on and have it on the wrist (was a bit surprised by the weight).

It's the right choice. You'll come across mint ones - I've seen several. And market movement is in your favor. Definitely wait and get a mint/fullset at a similar or cheaper price.

[onyourbikes]

Originally Posted by psm11

Yeah right now I'm about 95% leaning toward passing.As tough as that is because man did it feel great to try that on and have it on the wrist (was a bit surprised by the weight).

Then hard pass, no logical way to talk yourself down 95%, so you'll always regret your haste.

The market is still dying. Despite all the nicely worded propaganda about how good the economy is, it isn't.
Just look at demographics. We are in for a world of pain in the next 5 to 10 years. All the baby boomers just ticked up to 66 years old on average. So they are leaving the economy en masse.
China is demographically screwed and looking at total failure in the next 10 years, and half their population gone by 2050, they have too many old folk and too few kids. The numbers don't add up.
EVERYTHING points to the world being less financially stable and affluent for the medium future. Buying expensive watches for fun is going to be a no go for many more people soon. And that ignoes the dire state of the recession and short term economic factors.

The wise are planning for this and will capitalise on it, but the majority are suffering.

[red1108nyc]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Because this thread is BS lol. But apparently Moda is the grail for deals right now. But no one can see prices like this in the real world. What are the prices you are being quoted for a 15202 mint quality?

If you don’t value this thread, you should leave this thread. Everyone can have their own point of view and disagree.. but using “BS”.. kind of harsh.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by onyourbikes

Then hard pass, no logical way to talk yourself down 95%, so you'll always regret your haste.

The market is still dying. Despite all the nicely worded propaganda about how good the economy is, it isn't.
Just look at demographics. We are in for a world of pain in the next 5 to 10 years. All the baby boomers just ticked up to 66 years old on average. So they are leaving the economy en masse.
China is demographically screwed and looking at total failure in the next 10 years, and half their population gone by 2050, they have too many old folk and too few kids. The numbers don't add up.
EVERYTHING points to the world being less financially stable and affluent for the medium future. Buying expensive watches for fun is going to be a no go for many more people soon. And that ignoes the dire state of the recession and short term economic factors.

The wise are planning for this and will capitalise on it, but the majority are suffering.

Glad I don’t live in your world. From where I sit young people are more than compensating for the “burden” of old timers. Restaurants full, stores doing well, just got back from China where folks are working and spending strongly. Inflation in many countries is way down, same for interest rates. Guess I’m an optimist but being one has served me quite well.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Glad I don’t live in your world. From where I sit young people are more than compensating for the “burden” of old timers. Restaurants full, stores doing well, just got back from China where folks are working and spending strongly. Inflation in many countries is way down, same for interest rates. Guess I’m an optimist but being one has served me quite well.

……or you could be out of touch with reality.


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[onyourbikes]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Glad I don’t live in your world. From where I sit young people are more than compensating for the “burden” of old timers. Restaurants full, stores doing well, just got back from China where folks are working and spending strongly. Inflation in many countries is way down, same for interest rates. Guess I’m an optimist but being one has served me quite well.

I'm doing great thank you, because I took action to insulate myself from a lot of the problems.
In fact it's a doubly good day, I just got a call from an AD to say a watch I expressed interest in 10 days ago just arrived. I just picked it up.

But, you cannot deny demographic fact. The numbers do not add up.

[RanHong]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa4wTS5YQXw

interesting video.
according to this guy, prices are being artificially inflated in wholesale watch groups.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by RanHong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa4wTS5YQXw

interesting video.
according to this guy, prices are being artificially inflated in wholesale watch groups.

This is certainly going on even in the established groups. Right now a sprite is up for auction and the bids are already at 22k (these consistently get listed for that price) and no doubt will go higher. Why is that? Dealers are pumping the price because they can’t move them.

[Screwly]

Originally Posted by psm11

This is certainly going on even in the established groups. Right now a sprite is up for auction and the bids are already at 22k (these consistently get listed for that price) and no doubt will go higher. Why is that? Dealers are pumping the price because they can’t move them.

My thing is if the dealers are artificially pumping the price and can manipulate the market, then why did they let it get so low in the first place?


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