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Old 18 January 2023, 10:38 AM   #2791
huncho
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Paul Thorpe - Right! He's about the same as that dog trainer from Chicago that predicted the Sub would hit $25K by last year-end. So much for that!
how is it any different than the majority of people on this site now saying we'll be seeing 20% discounts within 2 years? lol

there's no rationality in a bull or bear market, only extremes
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Old 18 January 2023, 11:22 AM   #2792
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how is it any different than the majority of people on this site now saying we'll be seeing 20% discounts within 2 years? lol

there's no rationality in a bull or bear market, only extremes
It's a little different. For us, we are collectors and our livelihood isn't dependent on watch prices being 2-5x retail.

I think most of us are pretty rational. Yes there are some that preach 20% discounts in the future but there are just as many (probably more) that predict prices will level at +/- MSRP--that's pretty rational to me. These absurd prices were largely the result of grey market manipulation and were never "real" prices.

Even FHB said that the goal is for someone to buy an AP and not lose half its value the second they walked out the store. They want the watch to retain value not necessarily be multiple times the retail price.
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Old 18 January 2023, 11:36 AM   #2793
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It's a little different. For us, we are collectors and our livelihood isn't dependent on watch prices being 2-5x retail.

I think most of us are pretty rational. Yes there are some that preach 20% discounts in the future but there are just as many (probably more) that predict prices will level at +/- MSRP--that's pretty rational to me. These absurd prices were largely the result of grey market manipulation and were never "real" prices.

Even FHB said that the goal is for someone to buy an AP and not lose half its value the second they walked out the store. They want the watch to retain value not necessarily be multiple times the retail price.
there's a 5 page thread in the general section on buying grey and it's filled with doom posts and literally the first reply is "Prices will likely decrease every month throughout 2023. I would wait, but depends on how bad you want these watches. Smurf is easily under retail price already"

so now retail/below retail isn't good enough. remember when everyone was begging to be able to get msrp+tax from a grey? maybe you are reasonable but the amount of doom posts on here is becoming overwhelming. reminds me of when people started saying apple will go to $60 lol. i share your opinion of prices leveling at +/- MSRP for most watches but i think we are in the minority
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Old 18 January 2023, 11:43 AM   #2794
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there's a 5 page thread in the general section on buying grey and it's filled with doom posts and literally the first reply is "Prices will likely decrease every month throughout 2023. I would wait, but depends on how bad you want these watches. Smurf is easily under retail price already"

so now retail/below retail isn't good enough. remember when everyone was begging to be able to get msrp+tax from a grey? maybe you are reasonable but the amount of doom posts on here is becoming overwhelming. reminds me of when people started saying apple will go to $60 lol. i share your opinion of prices leveling at +/- MSRP for most watches but i think we are in the minority
Don't get me wrong it would be amazing if APs, PPs, and Rolexes were being sold for 20% under MSRP, but +/- MSRP is more than fine for me.
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Old 19 January 2023, 01:57 AM   #2795
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Royal Oak line in freefall

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Originally Posted by ExplorerI View Post
Went browsing over the weekend and saw some pretty amazing prices. Do greys even want to sell watches? Are they just hoping some guy with more money than brains comes along and funds their operation for the month with one purchase?

Saw a VC overseas dual time in black for 52k. Same watch bnib sold on moda for $24k a couple weeks ago.

5712 for 120k. They’ve been in the 70s and 80s.

5402 for 140k. Guy had one posted for $55k that I’m
Not sure ever sold.
It's true there are good watches for seemingly bargain basement prices that are not moving.

While the Nautilus line seems to be holding in decently well, Royal Oaks are in absolute freefall. 5402ST under 50k with no buyers, and 15202ST complete and mint 50-55k and not getting any offers. I am tempted to jump in the pool here but it seems the 15202 will be a $40k watch soon, back to 2019 prices, and somewhat more reasonable.
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Old 19 January 2023, 02:01 AM   #2796
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Part of the problem right now is no one knows where a 15202 or a 5711 should trade. You can find one dealer asking 80k for an unworn 15202, another asking 88k for a worn example, and another asking $55k for a mint example. There are countless dealers still asking over $100k! The trouble here is that you know that whatever you pay, it's now worth <50k and you've lost 10k at least! No one is buying so until that happens I will wait.

What I do know is a 16202ST sold for under 80k on loupethis and there are 10y more supply of 15202 out there.
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Old 19 January 2023, 02:16 AM   #2797
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Part of the problem right now is no one knows where a 15202 or a 5711 should trade. You can find one dealer asking 80k for an unworn 15202, another asking 88k for a worn example, and another asking $55k for a mint example. There are countless dealers still asking over $100k! The trouble here is that you know that whatever you pay, it's now worth <50k and you've lost 10k at least! No one is buying so until that happens I will wait.

What I do know is a 16202ST sold for under 80k on loupethis and there are 10y more supply of 15202 out there.
Interesting website, have you already experience it?
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Old 19 January 2023, 03:23 AM   #2798
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Thanks Vince - you're getting closer by the day buddy

Any 26420 and 26240 updates?
Fully stickered 15500 for $35k. Man that’s tempting, but I know these will drop. Only reason it’s in my mind is because I don’t know how many stickered pieces will be out there in a year since this was recently discontinued. And 15510 doesn’t do it for me

What do you think?
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Old 19 January 2023, 04:21 AM   #2799
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Has anyone seen any recent sales or prices on a 39mm Explorer mk2 214270?

I'm hoping to find one basically new in the box but prices I can see are all over the place.

Same question for a black dial Milgauss.
Any showing on moda or similar?
Thank you
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Old 19 January 2023, 04:57 AM   #2800
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Fully stickered 15500 for $35k. Man that’s tempting, but I know these will drop. Only reason it’s in my mind is because I don’t know how many stickered pieces will be out there in a year since this was recently discontinued. And 15510 doesn’t do it for me

What do you think?

What color are you going for?

I think anything within 20% of MSRP is worth a serious look. Maybe shave off another 1.5k off asking...

I see them being sticky around the MSRP level (unlike to ROO) and givrn they're discontinued and likely the last ones with the AP logo that might be a good level to jump in. Depending on dial you may be a little more aggressive for white and rhodium, I think black and of course blue will have less give
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Old 19 January 2023, 05:22 AM   #2801
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What color are you going for?

I think anything within 20% of MSRP is worth a serious look. Maybe shave off another 1.5k off asking...

I see them being sticky around the MSRP level (unlike to ROO) and givrn they're discontinued and likely the last ones with the AP logo that might be a good level to jump in. Depending on dial you may be a little more aggressive for white and rhodium, I think black and of course blue will have less give
Thanks! White dial.

The retail is 26.6k, and with tax in NYC it’s about 29k even. So that’s 20% above MSRP+tax.

It’s really tempting… and though I’m in no rush they aren’t making these any more….
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Old 19 January 2023, 07:26 AM   #2802
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Thanks! White dial.

The retail is 26.6k, and with tax in NYC it’s about 29k even. So that’s 20% above MSRP+tax.

It’s really tempting… and though I’m in no rush they aren’t making these any more….
I'd suggest doesn't hurt to offer 32 or 33 and go for it. Same situation with me, NYC sales tax kills MSRP anyways, so once you get it down to let's say 32.5k (i.e. 15% above MSRP+tax) and you get a discontinued fully stickered watch I'd say it's worth it.

Given that you're only asking for a 5% discount from the current asking, given market conditions and white dial I think it's a fair deal!
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Old 19 January 2023, 08:01 AM   #2803
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I'd suggest doesn't hurt to offer 32 or 33 and go for it. Same situation with me, NYC sales tax kills MSRP anyways, so once you get it down to let's say 32.5k (i.e. 15% above MSRP+tax) and you get a discontinued fully stickered watch I'd say it's worth it.

Given that you're only asking for a 5% discount from the current asking, given market conditions and white dial I think it's a fair deal!
Thanks again… no dice on that offer. Let’s see, these are popping up a ton. I know for a fact many greys aren’t buying this ref and will only consign.
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Old 19 January 2023, 08:30 AM   #2804
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Thanks again… no dice on that offer. Let’s see, these are popping up a ton. I know for a fact many greys aren’t buying this ref and will only consign.

Good luck man! Only a matter of time... I'd imagine in 4 weeks you may get lucky. Trying and sticking to the same with my ROO hunt.

Keep me posted on what Moda does for these
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Old 19 January 2023, 08:36 AM   #2805
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Good luck man! Only a matter of time... I'd imagine in 4 weeks you may get lucky. Trying and sticking to the same with my ROO hunt.

Keep me posted on what Moda does for these
Got you! I’m on the lookout. 26420 and 26240, right?

Fingers crossed, I think it’s quite clear how prices are trending at this point (reverting to their historical mean).
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Old 19 January 2023, 09:05 AM   #2806
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Thanks! White dial.

The retail is 26.6k, and with tax in NYC it’s about 29k even. So that’s 20% above MSRP+tax.

It’s really tempting… and though I’m in no rush they aren’t making these any more….
does a fully stickered/full set one pop up often? maybe worth waiting a few weeks to see where price goes but if it's not often then it's tough. i'm super impulsive and paid a 20% premium in 2019. in the grand scheme of things if it drops to retail you're still down whether you paid 35 or 33 lol and in the long run that 2k won't change anything. i'm personally ok with paying up to a certain % premium and getting to enjoy a watch i really want. can never really time things anyway

let us know what you do
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Old 19 January 2023, 09:23 AM   #2807
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Got you! I’m on the lookout. 26420 and 26240, right?

Fingers crossed, I think it’s quite clear how prices are trending at this point (reverting to their historical mean).

Yes and thank you!

Like the other poster said, my pain threshold is right around 20% above MSRP.

For a now discontinued and mint model with stickers I think you have some thinking to do . Certainly trending your way from the 70s in Feb last year!
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Old 19 January 2023, 09:31 AM   #2808
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does a fully stickered/full set one pop up often? maybe worth waiting a few weeks to see where price goes but if it's not often then it's tough. i'm super impulsive and paid a 20% premium in 2019. in the grand scheme of things if it drops to retail you're still down whether you paid 35 or 33 lol and in the long run that 2k won't change anything. i'm personally ok with paying up to a certain % premium and getting to enjoy a watch i really want. can never really time things anyway

let us know what you do
Yeah that’s the thing. If I wanted a 15510 I’d definitely pass. But the fact that this ref is pretty much out of production is making me second guess. And yeah, a few grand isn’t huge in the grand scheme of things. I don’t mind waiting, but hope that others pop up… will keep you posted.
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Old 19 January 2023, 11:37 AM   #2809
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Old 19 January 2023, 01:06 PM   #2810
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Has anyone seen any recent sales or prices on a 39mm Explorer mk2 214270?

I'm hoping to find one basically new in the box but prices I can see are all over the place.

Same question for a black dial Milgauss.
Any showing on moda or similar?
Thank you
on the MK2 39mm Explorer, one of our trusted sellers has one available right now. It's in excellent condition so it isn't new or like new. It should get you an idea directionally of what they are going for. Good luck!
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Old 19 January 2023, 02:31 PM   #2811
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on the MK2 39mm Explorer, one of our trusted sellers has one available right now. It's in excellent condition so it isn't new or like new. It should get you an idea directionally of what they are going for. Good luck!
do you have a link, whenever i search the buy/sell section it only shows me posts from 2015 or older for some reason.
Thank you
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Old 19 January 2023, 03:22 PM   #2812
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do you have a link, whenever i search the buy/sell section it only shows me posts from 2015 or older for some reason.
Thank you
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=888292
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Old 19 January 2023, 04:26 PM   #2813
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Part of the problem right now is no one knows where a 15202 or a 5711 should trade. You can find one dealer asking 80k for an unworn 15202, another asking 88k for a worn example, and another asking $55k for a mint example. There are countless dealers still asking over $100k! The trouble here is that you know that whatever you pay, it's now worth <50k and you've lost 10k at least! No one is buying so until that happens I will wait.

What I do know is a 16202ST sold for under 80k on loupethis and there are 10y more supply of 15202 out there.
This. Amazing one year ago everyone was willing to pay huge premium for RO and now nobody wants it. Understandable as no one wants to buy into a declining asset unless at distressed pricing. Eventually, given time, the market will find a balance and the correct price will emerge.
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Old 19 January 2023, 10:54 PM   #2814
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This. Amazing one year ago everyone was willing to pay huge premium for RO and now nobody wants it. Understandable as no one wants to buy into a declining asset unless at distressed pricing. Eventually, given time, the market will find a balance and the correct price will emerge.
The anomaly were those inflated priced the last couple years. Four-five years ago they were easy to find (also because there were more independent AP retailers back then).
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Old 20 January 2023, 12:29 AM   #2815
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Yes and thank you!

Like the other poster said, my pain threshold is right around 20% above MSRP.

For a now discontinued and mint model with stickers I think you have some thinking to do . Certainly trending your way from the 70s in Feb last year!
Just saw a black dial 50th 26240st, BNIB - 56k. Someone offered 50k.
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Old 20 January 2023, 02:18 AM   #2816
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Just saw a black dial 50th 26240st, BNIB - 56k. Someone offered 50k.

Haha thank you.

Even on C24 they're being advertised for 51-54k with plenty of them sitting, I'd imagine the true price at this point is around 49 or so...
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Old 20 January 2023, 02:54 AM   #2817
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Haha thank you.

Even on C24 they're being advertised for 51-54k with plenty of them sitting, I'd imagine the true price at this point is around 49 or so...
I honestly think much lower than that, particularly given how much Chrono takes. I talked to one guy who had a watch at $43k listed and was willing to do ~35k
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Old 20 January 2023, 03:05 AM   #2818
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The quality of MODA has severely degraded IMO in the last month or so...

Seems to be a LOT of stale or retail/over market prices listings lately.

Makes browsing a lot less pleasurable than it used to be...

Can't complain or comment at all on there you know he's a big baby and will just kick you if you make a comment and aren't paying him.
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Old 20 January 2023, 03:06 AM   #2819
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Fully stickered 15500 for $35k. Man that’s tempting, but I know these will drop. Only reason it’s in my mind is because I don’t know how many stickered pieces will be out there in a year since this was recently discontinued. And 15510 doesn’t do it for me

What do you think?
When I can find one for $29k I’m going for it. I feel like there are still plenty of fully stickered watches out there. Not everyone is like us and actually wants to wear them lol
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Old 20 January 2023, 04:12 AM   #2820
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The anomaly were those inflated priced the last couple years. Four-five years ago they were easy to find (also because there were more independent AP retailers back then).
I distinctly remember going to a client event last year. I was wearing my 116500 which was 50k at the time and my friend was wearing his 5167 on bracelet which was encroaching on $100k asking, and we both had the same thought, which was "is anyone actually paying that much for these watches right now?" Early last year was in many ways an aspirational market lift by the dealers.

I also remember one member here just went on and on about how his turquoise op41 was going to some ridiculous price and somehow $60k was still good value. For a turquoise OP41!!
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