5212A Prices dropping

[Erson]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Easy wear it with shorts and sandals but I guess the humidity might not be ideal for a strap piece in jakarta? We can but dream of the heat.

yes its hot here at jakarta, but we are always air conditioned most of the time. From home, Car, Office, Mall, restaurant with AC, back home.

Ive been many times to europe, people are always walking on the street, that does not happened here.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by pam66

classy lady :::)))

You saw her IG?

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

You saw her IG?

yes::)))

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

You saw her IG?

How does your son feel about you following her on His IG? Lol

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I am following AYTYStyle IG and her collection of MR, SS and PCC really grow on me. I am a big fan now, but low on budget and future earning power.

Those pieces are really sexy. And she likes sushi.

Same here.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

How does your son feel about you following her on His IG? Lol

He knows I do that but he is not interested in what I do.

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Same here.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Same here.

same here? you mean sexy, likes sushi, big earning power? which of these?:::)))

[sxdcfv]

Still dropping...

https://www.chrono24.com/patekphilip...id13929443.htm

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by sxdcfv

Still dropping...

https://www.chrono24.com/patekphilip...id13929443.htm

I find it odd any current non limited piece sells above MSRP - that is not a reflection on the piece which by the way is amazing.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by pam66

same here? you mean sexy, likes sushi, big earning power? which of these?:::)))

All of the above my friend. When they work together to be really classy its super cool.

[jkesquire]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

If is settled around MSRP I will get one.

This for sure :)

[edyu]

Don't think it will drop too low as there really isn't a lot of them around.

[sxdcfv]

Still dropping on Chrono24, down to 47,900 so I'm guessing you can get it done closer to 45k. I'm waiting it out on this piece. I'm in at retail or lower.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by sxdcfv

Still dropping on Chrono24, down to 47,900 so I'm guessing you can get it done closer to 45k. I'm waiting it out on this piece. I'm in at retail or lower.

With an MSRP of $33k, $45k might not be too bad if you really want the piece. I think it's still too high. Give it 18 months when there will be more stock around. Then the price will have settled.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I find it odd any current non limited piece sells above MSRP - that is not a reflection on the piece which by the way is amazing.

How is it different than a piece which sells for a significant discount to retail. If a piece can be bought for considerably less than retail in essentially new condition, why would anyone pay full retail? Consider the essentially ubiquitous Omega Speedmaster Professional. Who pays retail for these? And how does Omega ever sell one for retail? Would anyone here pay full retail for a basic Hesalite OSP? And yet it must happen.
The difference being, if you don't know any better or you want one immediately with no research and waiting you buy retail. Whereas, with the 5712a if you want one immediately with no research and waiting, you buy Grey.

[Pim]

The fact that there are 18 on C24 and they are not selling like hotcakes tells me that the prices still will drop a bit. Three months ago they sold for 82K, now 47..... juuuuuuuuuuuust a bit more time!!

come to me baby !!

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Pim

The fact that there are 18 on C24 and they are not selling like hotcakes tells me that the prices still will drop a bit. Three months ago they sold for 82K, now 47..... juuuuuuuuuuuust a bit more time!!

come to me baby !!

Absolutely. Can you imagine if you paid $80k? The initial rush has likely passed, and now the price is starting to settle. I think a lot want it because it's the latests SS PP piece, but a lot don't as its not really a sports piece a la Naut/Aqua and that's the edge of the PP bubble. I think this will settle in the $38-42k range.

It does nothing for me, SS or not. The dial is just too busy. It reminds me of the 6006G. I really want to like that watch, as I love the 240 movement, but the dial is just too busy.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Pim

The fact that there are 18 on C24 and they are not selling like hotcakes tells me that the prices still will drop a bit. Three months ago they sold for 82K, now 47..... juuuuuuuuuuuust a bit more time!!

come to me baby !!

There are 318 SS 5711 on C24, what does that tell you about prices?

[Pim]

Originally Posted by Russell996

There are 318 SS 5711 on C24, what does that tell you about prices?

That the prices came down from 70+K to 46+K. Will the 5711 or 5212 every reach retail? I don't think so but 50K for a 31K piece won't hold.

Those people invested in watches and want their money back so they hang on to them but at some point they have to get their money back and start liquidating. I agree that prices will be ending up somewhere in the 38-42K range.

And for 38K I would put the trigger I think

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Pim

Will the 5711 or 5212 every reach retail? I don't think so....

Really? I’m pretty sure they will. We are in a cycle of high prices at the moment but I can see no reason for the status quo not to be re-established at a future time. The price is being driven by speculators not watch lovers and when the tide turns there will be a rush to dump stock.

[Simon.DGV]

Watch at more than US$20,000 is not something you consider a mere disposable item that you buy because you love it; you have to make sure it has value retention and easy to get out when you need the money. You do not buy a watch that is US$20,000; or more - you invest in a watch. You can buy a decent apartment in many small cities in USA at US$50,000 with down payment just $10,000 and get positive income streams.

Watch is a risky investment that do not generate positive income stream; infact if you measure the service cost and storage cost it can be negative income stream.

If an investment could generate income stream such as bonds; triple AAA rating stocks or rental residential or commercial real estate - when economy is bad you can hold on and get positive returns and wait for better timing to off load at profit; and it is very unlikely positive income stream investment to become unsellable due to change in taste or fashion or brand name problem. Watch if you could not sell today, and you keep it - who knows what happen to the brand after the crisis pass by; a newer brand come in take over and what you are holding is just like "expired" time pieces. It happens to Piaget, Frank Muller, Blancpain; Raymond Weil, Cartier, Panerai, Omega, Breitling - they were very hot brands in the 1980s and 1990s some model even better than Patek Phillipe then; but look at where they are standing now; they are toxic asset.
"The price is being driven by speculators not watch lovers and when the tide turns there will be a rush to dump stock." yes to dump stock you need a place to dump;

Patek and Richard Mille being very expensive; beyond reach for average middle class and is not very liquid when there is market turbulence.
The sport watch hype that has been going on in the 2000s are mainly generated by Chinese buyers and Hong Kong grey dealers. They just buy in bulk at whatever price and keeping market dry and then sell slowly at huge premiums. Now Chinese businessman can not even enter Hong Kong, due to corona virus and who knows how long it would take; as the spreading of virus exceed the medical team capacity to cure.
I wouldn't be surprised that price will be heading down by 60 or 70% even with Patek or Richard Mille come to complete stop of watch production.

Rolex may be exception as it is very liquid (when you want to sell) globally; there is a steady demand world wide and Rolex price (Milgauss, Air King, Explorer, Date Just) is relatively within reach for an average middle class. You can go to the deepest jungle in Asia and you show Rolex and they can understand and find you a way. You ask an average Joe in New York, they have no idea what a Patek or Richard Mille means.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Really? I’m pretty sure they will. We are in a cycle of high prices at the moment but I can see no reason for the status quo not to be re-established at a future time. The price is being driven by speculators not watch lovers and when the tide turns there will be a rush to dump stock.

Absolutely. This bubble will deflate at some point. They always do.

[Fat_ninja]

I was told 50% of the orders disappeared as prices started coming down. What’s that tell you...


50% of the demand was just to flip the watch

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I was told 50% of the orders disappeared as prices started coming down. What’s that tell you...

50% of the demand was just to flip the watch

Figures. I think this will eventually happen with the Aquas, but unlikely with the Nauts.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Figures. I think this will eventually happen with the Aquas, but unlikely with the Nauts.

Why?

The pattern is the same.

[Pim]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I was told 50% of the orders disappeared as prices started coming down. What’s that tell you...


50% of the demand was just to flip the watch

Where did you catch that ?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Pim

Where did you catch that ?

My anonymous source...

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I was told 50% of the orders disappeared as prices started coming down.

Good.

[Pim]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

My anonymous source...

Wooooooooooooooo so mysterious you are !!

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Why?



The pattern is the same.

I think the Aquanaut and Nautilus watches are qualitatively different. Just taking the last 10 years, most of the Nautilus watches have been popular and difficult to acquire. There has always been a wait associated with most of the models, sometimes measured in months and sometimes years, but now they are unavailable to all except buyers with strong AD relationships (and even then the wait can still run to years). Most of the Aquanaut range are recent and have seen their popularity increase since release. However, unlike much of the Nautilus range, outside of the the last 2.5 years, it was not difficult to acquire a 5167/5164. Go back to 2017 even, and they could be picked up at MSRP without huge difficulty. Also, there was no grey market for Aquanauts.

I think the current Aquanaut craze comes straight of the back of the Nautilus range. I think many genuinely want an Aquanaut, realising they are great watches. Their broad popularity is increasing. However, I think many more want them as a Nautilus substitute. The Aquanauts don’t have the Nautilus history behind them, and it’ll be years before they are considered an icon—which I doubt.

They will deflate. It’s just when.


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