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24 March 2020, 11:30 AM | #1 |
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5167A Price Drop Maybe?
Anyone think the 5167A will drop down to its 2018 prices of high teens to low 20s price range?
I have seen $29K so far. Fingers crossed so I can pick one up finally. Im not willing to pay high 20s or low 30s for an entry level stainless watch.
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24 March 2020, 11:43 AM | #2 |
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Naw - not going to happen . :-) jmo
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24 March 2020, 11:45 AM | #3 |
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I'm similarly curious about what kind of a drop will be experienced by models like the rose gold Nautilus (5711/1R). The other watches that have experienced a similarly crazy increase in prices in recent times are Rolex stainless sport models, but the differences between gray and MSRP are comparatively much smaller for those, given the lower MSRP.
But when it comes to a watch like the 5711/1R, it was trading at a peak of ~$95-110k, with an MSRP of $48k. That's a massive amount of room to drop, but then with watches like the Nautilus, the much more constrained supply (relative to Rolex) has also contributed to the high prices. As someone who's been keenly interested in acquiring a 5711/1R, but unwilling to pay the massive gray market premiums, I wonder what the bottom will be for a model like that. Will they actually drop below MSRP at some point? Or will they level out around $60-70k at the lowest, which will be the time to snag as good a "deal" as you'll ever get on one (outside of waiting many years for one from an AD). Interesting times. |
24 March 2020, 12:48 PM | #4 |
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I don't that unlikely. Mid 20s is very possible.
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24 March 2020, 01:30 PM | #5 |
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My advice is keep watching every dealer on here and keep aware of what’s going on. Prices are almost certain to be lower in 30-60 days, but low $20s for a 5167a is probably pushing it unless you find a dealer that’s starting to panic.
I’d still pay a bit of a premium for trusted dealers you see on here over an unknown party. You’re still buying the dealer. Another option if you’re more brave is watch private party sellers on C24 and eBay. Pay zero attention to dealer prices on C24 as that’s straight propaganda. Nobody is paying anything close to the prices most dealers are asking.
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24 March 2020, 01:32 PM | #6 |
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On the lower end of the mid 20s would be my ceiling. Not because I can’t afford it but out of principle.
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24 March 2020, 01:48 PM | #7 |
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24 March 2020, 02:28 PM | #8 |
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24 March 2020, 04:33 PM | #9 |
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24 March 2020, 04:50 PM | #10 |
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24 March 2020, 04:50 PM | #11 |
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24 March 2020, 09:14 PM | #12 |
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An AD.
I think the point was if someone is so principled, why have your own made up ceiling. I could be wrong though. That’s just how I read it.
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24 March 2020, 09:38 PM | #13 |
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Prices will only drop if greys need to sell for cashflow. Some of them aren't liquid and are becoming under water. Those that can weather this have no reason to drop prices...why take a margin cut or loss if you don't have to
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24 March 2020, 10:45 PM | #14 | |
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Of course, there will be ones that do not need the immediate cf and will be able to weather the storm, but there are plenty that are highly leveraged and will need inventory turnover. I have heard end of month is best when negotiating with greys. This is because the leveraged ones need to liquidate to cover their current liabilities. This could all be hearsay but it makes sense. |
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24 March 2020, 11:43 PM | #15 |
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I would wait to see what happens when the AD's open. They have already admitted that they will fire people, so there will be fire sales of inventory as well. (Source, Hodinkee newsletter from yesterday.
In Switzerland the government will subsidies up to 50% of employee salaries for a trimester to help avoid mass sackings. Yesterday, officially the government announced that the demands for financial support have greatly increased the peak of demands of 2008 - 2009. Here, the financial crisis is expected to be far worse than the last crisis, so my expectation is, that all those hot entry level watches will become entry level watches. You have massive financial pressure on gray dealers, massive pressure on retailers, and do not forget that Patek will lose minimum of 40% of its revenues this year thanks to COVID 19, while keeping its costs, which are highly fixed anyway. On top of this, Baselworld kept the money for participation because it did not cancel but only postponed the event. If you have waited for an Aquanaut, (like I have) wait a bit more. I am officially rejecting mine because I have lost 20% of my salary, and no bonus for 2021 so far, and my boss is fighting for not letting people off. Our company has applied for the financial aid, and we hope to get it, otherwise I will get only 60% of my salary, and these calculations include full restart of economic activity by September 1, which is optimistic. For the record, I could have bought my Aquanaut on MSRP in the last 2 years of waiting any month on my credit card and clearing the debt on the next month with zero problem. |
25 March 2020, 12:28 AM | #16 |
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That is where the problem lies. I would love to buy one at MSRP if any were to be had at MSRP without a multi-year wait.
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25 March 2020, 12:34 AM | #17 |
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25 March 2020, 12:41 AM | #18 |
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Some ADs are closed but still call customers to arrange a local pick up of their watches.
But for 5167 and 5711 it doesn´t matter if the AD is open or not. |
25 March 2020, 01:00 AM | #19 | |
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Add to this some good old human psychology. In bad financial times, people ask themselves things such as "why am I paying a premium" and "can I really afford this now"? They don't ask those questions when the market goes up 15% to 25% every year. All of this spells the end of these big premiums. Sure, a 5711 or 5167 will still command something over MSRP as supply remains very low, but given our current course those premiums will be 10 to 15% above MSRP in a few months. |
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25 March 2020, 01:12 AM | #20 | |
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There are many, many reputable dealers on the C24 platform, so I wouldn't concern myself about that. It's just the prices on several watches are out of touch with reality. If you see something on there, you simply must negotiate. That's all I mean by it. |
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25 March 2020, 02:34 AM | #21 |
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Might be able to get a naked one in the mid 20s at some point perhaps :)
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25 March 2020, 02:55 AM | #22 |
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25 March 2020, 03:23 AM | #23 | |
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Quote:
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25 March 2020, 03:40 AM | #24 | |
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Done.
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25 March 2020, 04:03 AM | #25 |
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If you're wondering about demand, I used to go to europeanwatch all the time when I lived in Boston. Their incoming page typically had 5 or 10 watches. I know the 5167 is a different beast but they have almost 80 watches incoming if that shows how people are dumping things.
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25 March 2020, 04:11 AM | #26 | |
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Quote:
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25 March 2020, 05:14 AM | #27 |
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Thanks, but ive never been a fan of the Iron Cross styling.
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25 March 2020, 05:29 AM | #28 | |
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This forum more than any other are in love with the grays. |
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25 March 2020, 05:47 AM | #29 |
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I wish I could buy a 5167A new. I would trade 2 watches and I would HAPPY and done to be honest.
I really wish I could. |
25 March 2020, 05:52 AM | #30 | |
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Also, to support that demand is still there...folks who feel they have ample money saved to weather this and still have a watch fund put aside are still looking to buy. Myself included as I bought a watch from an AD this past weekend that I finally got the call for. I have friends that would jump at buying watches that they've been waiting for as well. I'm far from rich, but I'm good with my money and feel my job is secure...so why not buy if opportunity knocks, which happened to be twice this past week. |
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