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Old 23 April 2022, 03:44 PM   #1
Matc
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The market has peaked

Has anyone else noticed that the prices of many models has peaked and now started to drop?

On Chrono24 many models have either started to fall in price or flattened, such as the Batman, Pepsi, many gold Daytonas etc. I’m seeing the same thing in Patek and AP with the Aquanaut and Royal Oak Jumbo.

This is my first post in probably 8 years as I’m starting to feel like finally this insanity might be on a path to ending.
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Old 23 April 2022, 03:46 PM   #2
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You just woke up from a six-week nap?
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Old 23 April 2022, 03:48 PM   #3
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Flattened prices are a fall when inflation is approaching 10%
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Old 23 April 2022, 03:52 PM   #4
Matc
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You just woke up from a six-week nap?
I’ve been seeing it, but haven’t posted.

Thank god. Maybe the market and this forum will return to being about the joy of ownership Vs investment.
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Old 23 April 2022, 03:53 PM   #5
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Flattened prices are a fall when inflation is approaching 10%
I think they are falling in many cases.
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Old 23 April 2022, 04:02 PM   #6
Tomas Eriksson
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Price corrections used to be seasonal just a few years ago, it’s only the last few years we had this crazy nonstop upward trend so a correction is long overdue.
It’s a global trend with high inflation, higher interest rates and loads of uncertainty. Of course it trickles down to speculative watch buyers as well.
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Old 23 April 2022, 04:03 PM   #7
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ok
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Old 23 April 2022, 04:10 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matc View Post
Has anyone else noticed that the prices of many models has peaked and now started to drop?

On Chrono24 many models have either started to fall in price or flattened, such as the Batman, Pepsi, many gold Daytonas etc. I’m seeing the same thing in Patek and AP with the Aquanaut and Royal Oak Jumbo.

This is my first post in probably 8 years as I’m starting to feel like finally this insanity might be on a path to ending.
If a price decreases why would that mean it has peaked? A bit confused with your lesson in economics. If they flatten is that a good thing? Which gold Daytona's are you seeing that have dropped significantly? I don't follow C24 much and depend more on one of my AD's to help explain to me what is going on.
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Old 23 April 2022, 04:23 PM   #9
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This is my first post in probably 8 years as I’m starting to feel like finally this insanity might be on a path to ending.
Your last post before this thread was in July 2019.
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Old 23 April 2022, 04:31 PM   #10
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I’ve been seeing it, but haven’t posted.

Thank god. Maybe the market and this forum will return to being about the joy of ownership Vs investment.
Doubtful
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Old 23 April 2022, 04:36 PM   #11
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Your last post before this thread was in July 2019.
Maybe the math on the crash numbers aren't that accurate too .Must be the hibernation .
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Old 23 April 2022, 04:36 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Matc View Post
Has anyone else noticed that the prices of many models has peaked and now started to drop?

On Chrono24 many models have either started to fall in price or flattened, such as the Batman, Pepsi, many gold Daytonas etc. I’m seeing the same thing in Patek and AP with the Aquanaut and Royal Oak Jumbo.

This is my first post in probably 8 years as I’m starting to feel like finally this insanity might be on a path to ending.
As soon as someone quotes chrono24 as a market indicator I know they are clueless. The end.
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Old 23 April 2022, 05:02 PM   #13
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Well if you can buy from AD or did buy your current watches from AD everything should be okay. That’s how I see it.
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Old 23 April 2022, 05:03 PM   #14
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Your way too slow.

Market is already on a downward spiral now. most pieces have already dropped 10-15%.

That is real sale prices. Dont forget most ppl will list at one price which they know will never sell at that price anyway.

Most grays (especially larger ones) have been resisting price drops but I'm starting to see them move now and dropping prices. Many grays moving to consignment sales only operating model now. Even DavidSW who rarely drops prices have already dropped $2k+ on the DD40 Olive. He's going to have to drop it alot more than that if he wants to move it.
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Old 23 April 2022, 05:30 PM   #15
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Prices maybe settle down for a while, seen all the issues in the world, and then " up it goes" (again)
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Old 23 April 2022, 05:40 PM   #16
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Your last post before this thread was in July 2019.
Time flies when you’re having fun!
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Old 23 April 2022, 05:43 PM   #17
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Prices are still mad - I will take notice when I can obtain and buy a watch near Retail - in the meantime I will just enjoy wearing what I have
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Old 23 April 2022, 05:58 PM   #18
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The market has peaked

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Time flies when you’re having fun!
^100 % agreed.

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Old 23 April 2022, 06:03 PM   #19
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Rolex produces 1 million watch a year every year, it is not a rare commodity, the main reasons for the high price are flipping and Grey market dealings. The current social media hype also fueled the demand but it wont last forever and one day only true enthusiasts will remain.

Prices will fall eventually and will be near retail for MOST models, it might be this year or in the next 5 eventually it will happen but it will be gradual.

Let us not forget that the retail prices of Rolex watches are already expensive as it is, and my guess is another official price increase will take place maybe early next year as the inflation has hit hard the whole world, and as such I don't think many people will have interest in buying watches if they cannot flip them for a good profit.
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Old 23 April 2022, 07:31 PM   #20
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I get notified for my CHNR every other day or so on C24 and the market seemed to have peaked about 2-3 weeks ago at 42500. Just got notified today that prices are at 35500. Massive drop. FWIW.

Canadian dollars btw
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Old 23 April 2022, 07:56 PM   #21
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I just hope so OP!

Remember the "good old days"?
- Common references in stock, all the time (DJ, Subs)
- Every case had a good mix of SS and PM
- Several meteorite pieces
- Easy to get 10% discount on anything, often 15+
- "Going grey" could easily save 20% and avoided AD pressure
- The used market was at this -20% grey level or less

We bought what we wanted and nothing more. It was pretty easy to get rid of things and buy something else but there wasn't 1:1 value retention with purchase price nor any such expectation. Overseas travel was fun, all foreign ADs also stocked up and you'd save 25% on a brand new watch from the airport. Bliss!!
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Old 23 April 2022, 07:57 PM   #22
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Thats why the crystalballs are sold out at Alibabaexpress!!!
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Old 23 April 2022, 09:01 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Divingdeep87 View Post
Well if you can buy from AD or did buy your current watches from AD everything should be okay. That’s how I see it.
Agree 1000% glad this has zero impact on me.
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Old 23 April 2022, 09:17 PM   #24
amh
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Forgot to mention: Wake me up when I can buy a BLNR at MSRP.
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Old 23 April 2022, 09:17 PM   #25
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I agree, will post a detailed thread on this today.
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Old 23 April 2022, 09:29 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xtralarg View Post
As soon as someone quotes chrono24 as a market indicator I know they are clueless. The end.
Absolutely spot on,usually people who are desperate and willing the market to drop.End of,amen.
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Old 23 April 2022, 10:04 PM   #27
7enderbender
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Flattened prices are a fall when inflation is approaching 10%
That’s a valid point. I personally don’t really care what the “value” of my watches is. I’ll never sell anything and with the kids’ college costs hitting hard I’m pretty sure that Big Pilot 43 and the Explorer 1 will have to wait a little anyway.

Point being: we currently should be concerned about the bigger picture. If prices drop that can easily be a bad bad thing for many of us since the underlying reasons will not be pretty. Just wait for the housing market to crash. And I mean really crash, not like the little blip we had in 2008.
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Old 23 April 2022, 10:10 PM   #28
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I’m not a fan of value threads; however, I’m not sure why everyone is beating on the guys that bring up a little concern. It’s a process and you don’t go from triple retail to retail overnight. I’ve spoken with 3 grays and the guys at Chi VC (who sell used in the back), within the past 2-weeks, and prices are coming down faster than the usual spring slow down. One gray said he bought more Rolex in the last 30-days than the past 2 years, since there are deals to be made. Two others said they are not making offers on any Rolex. Who knows where the market will go, but to ignore what’s happening on the street, unless paying retail, is a little naive. Look at all collectible markets and you will see the same.
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Old 23 April 2022, 10:19 PM   #29
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Thanks for all of the replies. The majority are so kind and respectful.

It’s great to see so many people new to the forum that have joined in the last 2 years tell me I’m clueless and otherwise denigrate me.

Gentlemen, I wish good luck and farewell. May the impending economic implosion bring you all that you deserve.
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Old 23 April 2022, 10:30 PM   #30
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I'm new here also. This forum sometimes reminds me of Twitter when I was on it. I welcome different points of view. I would agree with OP as I just recieved a new Sub date this week after waiting exactly 1 month.
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