The market has peaked

[SubMillennial]

bound to happen, with the impending recession and the return of real interest. right now the dealers are slowly but surely unleveraging themselves, I still don't think the new lower prices are any sales to actual end users, but rather intra-dealer liquidation, so I expect the current slide to continue for quite some time

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by rmwill

You think being an enthusiast entitles you to an MSRP watch? It is very simple, you are unwilling to pay market price for an in demand luxury good. No need to be salty about it. I would love to buy a 911 at MSRP, but I recognize I am not ENTITLED to one.

I get the poster’s frustration. Unfortunately, it is what it is. Perhaps time to find another AD that might respect (assuming they’re being sincere) the poster being a watch enthusiast and not a speculator.

Pre-2017 was definitely more enjoyable for watch enthusiasts into Rolex.

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

I’m hoping for the market to drop till I can get a 116508(not Green dial) at between 10% to 15% above MSRP. Will this day come? Really hope so

only in your dreams

[RXB]

A Perfect storm helped create this silly bubble. And all those factors are now slowly but surely changing. World is reopening, new Rolex factory in 2023/24, fed raising rates by 200bps by year end and tapering by $95 billion a month. Good luck to those who have their life savings in Rolex. I wouldn't want to be them!

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

...buying for investment purposes (which is dumb, in my opinion).

I have watches that I keep and I have bought some as investments and sold at a profit.


My bank account thanks me for being dumb I guess...

[dpt.calvin]

Originally Posted by saxo3

Your last post before this thread was in July 2019.

lol

[dpt.calvin]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I think I am entitled to buy a mass-produced product at MSRP in a reasonable timeframe without being price gouged. Clearly, you think it is OK to hoover up all supply and overcharge people while "influencing" with posts and videos.

Go ahead and keep posting that meme and belittling and gaslighting people.

Entitlement is the problem.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by dpt.calvin

Entitlement is the problem.

You're right, we the customers are the problem. Unbelievable!

[vika01]

Prices have come down to what they were 2-3 months ago.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by dpt.calvin

Entitlement is the problem.

Right?!?!


They literally said they were "entitled".

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by WilsdorfNDavis

Right?!?!


They literally said they were "entitled".

I notice a pattern where the last 3 posters giving me grief over this opinion all have join dates of 2018 and later...coincidence? Maybe if you'd been around here before about 2016, you would see how absurd you sound to those of us that have been here for much longer.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I notice a pattern where the last 3 posters giving me grief over this opinion all have join dates of 2018 and later...coincidence? Maybe if you'd been around here before about 2016, you would see how absurd you sound to those of us that have been here for much longer.

You know knowing about us or our history and it has no bearing on our posts; you literally said you're "entitled" to something that you are absolutely not "entitled" to...that is the only thing that is absurd.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by WilsdorfNDavis

You know knowing about us or our history and it has no bearing on our posts; you literally said you're "entitled" to something that you are absolutely not "entitled" to...that is the only thing that is absurd.

[Paulie 50]

Originally Posted by Rolexken

Flattened prices are a fall when inflation is approaching 10%

absolutely.

[inadeje]

This isn’t rocket science OP. Contemporary history (2005-2007) displayed similar lunacy as we’ve experienced 2020-2021. I won’t go further back in time, but I could. History repeats itself during overheated markets, fed money printing fiascos and artificially low interest rates. What’s started is a correction that will be similar to 2008, but somewhat more acute for certain sectors. Luxury items are and will be the first to suffer. The equity markets will revise their valuation multiples and P/E ratios will reign supreme again. But it was all fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? 2030-34 should be when things vaguely get back to normal. Since inflation will be at a mean 10% over those years it won’t feel like you lost money on your watches until you try to buy something else with the money

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by WilsdorfNDavis

You know knowing about us or our history and it has no bearing on our posts; you literally said you're "entitled" to something that you are absolutely not "entitled" to...that is the only thing that is absurd.

I used the term the poster I was responding to used, in a sarcastic manner, but that went over your head. The point remains though. In my opinion, a consumer has the right to buy a mass produced product at MSRP in a reasonable timeframe without being price gouged because people are hoarding and manipulating the market. That is my opinion. If you feel otherwise, good for you, keep overpaying.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by RXB

A Perfect storm helped create this silly bubble. And all those factors are now slowly but surely changing. World is reopening, new Rolex factory in 2023/24, fed raising rates by 200bps by year end and tapering by $95 billion a month. Good luck to those who have their life savings in Rolex. I wouldn't want to be them!

Exactly.

Still a long way to go yet.
Prices will fall back down to RRP.
People who paid crazy prices will not like it.
But if you just want to buy a watch to wear and tell the time - great.

Many on these boards have only really seen prices going up and ever great shortages.
The world is slowly returning to normal, and Rolex supply and prices will return to normal as well.

Those left holding watches they massively overpaid for will find these discussions uncomfortable.
The 'prices will continue going up forever' & 'there are more millionaires now than watches' brigade will be proven very wrong, as always.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by rolex16

...In my opinion, a consumer has the right to buy a mass produced product at MSRP in a reasonable timeframe without being price gouged because people are hoarding and manipulating the market. That is my opinion.

Just because it's an opinion doesn't mean it can't be wrong. Opinions can be wrong.


When an opinion is wrong, we can find evidence to prove it. (In this example there is no consumer "right" to buy at MSRP, which, in itself is just a 'suggested retail price').


We can also show this contradicting evidence to the person whose opinion it is, but don’t be surprised if they’re not willing to believe in the evidence provided.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I used the term the poster I was responding to used, in a sarcastic manner, but that went over your head. The point remains though. In my opinion, a consumer has the right to buy a mass produced product at MSRP in a reasonable timeframe without being price gouged because people are hoarding and manipulating the market. That is my opinion. If you feel otherwise, good for you, keep overpaying.

You mean I have a right to that Porsche? I’ll tell the dealer Nick said so!

[wclowe]

Not seeing any actual data, just opinions based on observation and a sample size of one, so here’s some actual numbers to consider:


Source: https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex

Cheers!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by WilsdorfNDavis

Just because it's an opinion doesn't mean it can't be wrong. Opinions can be wrong.


When an opinion is wrong, we can find evidence to prove it. (In this example there is no consumer "right" to buy at MSRP, which, in itself is just a 'suggested retail price').


We can also show this contradicting evidence to the person whose opinion it is, but don’t be surprised if they’re not willing to believe in the evidence provided.

I’m done arguing with you. You win. Enjoy your market price watches.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

You mean I have a right to that Porsche? I’ll tell the dealer Nick said so!

Consumers have rights, that is why the FTC and other agencies exist. Consumers also have a right to vote with their wallet and move on from brands that don't treat their customers well.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

The problem with the current events (post-covid, inflation, crypto values, China/HK shutdown, Ukraine/russia war, public debt, Central bank policies, Central bank balance sheets, etc) is that all ideas a plausible.
There is no trend. Market can crash and/or market rallies are possible.

Only things which are now facts: during the covid, all countries were fine (we could see it in the stable exchange rates). Post-covid, exchange rates are moving hard. Unrest in a lot of countries is increasing. IMF is now helping more and more new countries.

So as long as the central banks can control everything and the market trust these guys, we are fine. Otherwise everything could turn sour quickly.

That said: LVMH increased massively the prices of all its successful products to enjoy the ride (If you have a wife into bags, you know what I speak about). Rolex, PP, AP, etc could have doubled or more the price of its successful watches. They have not. Why? They know. I do not.

That said 2: For us the best indicator for the watch market is to check the evolution of the grey dealers' ratio of consigned/owned units in stock. If suddenly this ratio increases, it means that they do not trust the market.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Consumers have rights, that is why the FTC and other agencies exist. Consumers also have a right to vote with their wallet and move on from brands that don't treat their customers well.

You mean I have a right to that Porsche NOW? I’ll tell the dealer Nick said the FTC said so!

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

You mean I have a right to that Porsche NOW? I’ll tell the dealer Nick said the FTC said so!

Such a clever response. Well done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GW44]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Exactly.

Still a long way to go yet.
Prices will fall back down to RRP.
People who paid crazy prices will not like it.
But if you just want to buy a watch to wear and tell the time - great.

Many on these boards have only really seen prices going up and ever great shortages.
The world is slowly returning to normal, and Rolex supply and prices will return to normal as well.

Those left holding watches they massively overpaid for will find these discussions uncomfortable.
The 'prices will continue going up forever' & 'there are more millionaires now than watches' brigade will be proven very wrong, as always.

Back to RRP? Care to put any specific weight (and context) to that assertion please?

New Rolex product supply will never, ever match demand…..even if it (demand) fell off a cliff vs the appetite for the brand.

I’ve been buying the brand for 33 years (at MSRP) and when/if I’ve sold a piece I have not lost a penny and I fully expect that to continue irrespective of what the doomsday crowd suggest….

[WSD34]

I agree - Hopefully the market corrects and things start to become more realistic

[blargle]

Originally Posted by GW44

Back to RRP? Care to put any specific weight (and context) to that assertion please?

New Rolex product supply will never, ever match demand…..even if it (demand) fell off a cliff vs the appetite for the brand.

this is delusion at this point, another classic warning sign of a bubble.

starting to become quite tired of this forum because of attitudes like this, prices are correcting, simple, you can bury your head in the sand and stick your fingers in your ears, but prices are coming down, and this is only the beginning

if you paid the ridiculous gray market prices, you are going to take a bath, simple, if you bought at retail, then none of this matters

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Such a clever response. Well done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Diminish my point by calling it clever if you wish but it serves a purpose, to illustrate that there is no human or consumer right to purchase any object at will at MSRP. Demand affects supply and therefore price. That’s what makes a free market free.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

Diminish my point by calling it clever if you wish but it serves a purpose, to illustrate that there is no human or consumer right to purchase any object at will at MSRP. Demand affects supply and therefore price. That’s what makes a free market free.

Market manipulation, hoarding, and price gouging also affect prices and being able to buy at msrp. Consumers have rights to protect them from these unfair practices.