Will the Bubble Pop on the Patek Philippe sport watch...???

[SL BRABUS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tT20PPqEsAI

Click the above link to watch the youtube video.....^^^... you could fast forward to about 7:00....

IMHO if Patek Philippe keep the supply tight, it will continue to go up or stay that way even the economy is bad.....


But if it does pop it still sale above retail price from what the two gentlemen saying on the video......

[Russell996]

It was an interesting show last night.

Tuesdays show with all the DB’s was also stand out.

[dannyp]

What prices are those in each of the two years? Are they market prices for both, or are they comparing MSRP from a few years ago to market prices today, or the market prices from a few years ago to market prices today?

5980 will also be inflated more (and probably be more "market-proof" since it appears to have been discontinued in all steel).

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by dannyp

What prices are those in each of the two years? Are they market prices for both, or are they comparing MSRP from a few years ago to market prices today, or the market prices from a few years ago to market prices today?

5980 will also be inflated more (and probably be more "market-proof" since it appears to have been discontinued in all steel).

All market prices.
Watchuwant and Watchbox.

[yoast]

Supply and demand..... Unless another financial meltdown happens and demand will evaporate, things wont change much...
I'm afraid that for watches, lower prices will be somewhat a thing of the past as the grays pretty much control watch prices in the secondary market.

[SL BRABUS]

Originally Posted by dannyp

What prices are those in each of the two years? Are they market prices for both, or are they comparing MSRP from a few years ago to market prices today, or the market prices from a few years ago to market prices today?

5980 will also be inflated more (and probably be more "market-proof" since it appears to have been discontinued in all steel).

Originally Posted by Russell996

All market prices.
Watchuwant and Watchbox.

This.....^^^..... Like what my friend Russell say..... & I would like to add this information too.... All time low & all time high (market prices)

[AK797]

Patek SS is produced in so few numbers and bought by the most affluent that they are very well protected, if their prices really suffer it means the whole market has fallen off a cliff and half the brands we know today are probably gone.

[GB-man]

Yes it will. If I could tell you when I’d be something special.

[ragsk]

For sure.

Premiums are far to high and have got there far too fast. Collapse within 18 months coming. This is the way of the world.

[Fat_ninja]

Maybe...but maybe not. But seriously


Maybe



Then again...


Maybe not.



Who am i kidding i dont know

[Ichiran]

Until a major recession bites...

[Calatrava r]

No is the correct answer. PP can reduce supply as needed to fuel interest.

[rollyp]

Just last month, the 5980 white dial (which was only made for one year and until relatively recently, nobody cared about) were listed for around $80K, and today they are asking north of $100K. Literally... in one freaking month.

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...ccessoryTypes=

Let's not kid ourselves, things are more than a bit frothy. Last fall, before the stock market plunged, blue dial 5711s had just reached a bit over $50K. Interestingly, after the stock market tanked 20% rather quickly, asking prices for blue dial 5711s came back down to the mid $40K range. And then, after stocks made a V shaped recovery just as quick as they went down, 5711 blue dials once again went up but this time near $60K. When stocks tank again, and it will be much worse than last time, 5711 prices will correct a good amount. And I already have one, so as much as I'd like to see the price keep rising, reality will set in at some point.

[ct.matt]

It's all speculative. If we had aggregated sales data for number of units, msrp, and gray market price over time you could see how much of the price differential can be explained with various economic conditions or how much it correlates.
I own a 5164 and hopefully prices will keep going up, ha!

[ppalasthira]

Interesting show for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

No is the correct answer. PP can reduce supply as needed to fuel interest.

How much will a reduction in supply really matter, given how few of these are made altogether? These aren't like Rolex sport models, made by the tens of thousands. I tend to doubt that Patek has neither the same ability, nor same desire, to influence demand by manipulating supply. Doing so will mean a difference of a few hundred watches - not enough to truly influence market prices on $20-30k watches.

And, unlike Rolex, I don't think that the stainless models are what end up fueling purchases of the PM ones. Patek's PM models (other than simple, three-hand Calatravas) are highly desired by serious collectors and Patek needn't rely on 5711 hype to get people interested in those. To the contrary, shortages of stainless models are more likely due to Patek's production capacity being utilized elsewhere to fulfill demand for its complicated pieces.

The market will ebb and flow with regard to demand, but I tend to doubt that Patek is doing much to influence it by altering production.

[bob101]

Nope. Grab any you can at retail.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by bob101

Nope. Grab any you can at retail.

Even if the bubble did burst, it’s tough to imagine market prices dropping below current MSRP. Even if market on a 5712 “tanks” and they start going for $35k, getting one at retail is still a good buy. It’s paying 60 for one that may end up being a poor use of funds.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by dannyp

How much will a reduction in supply really matter, given how few of these are made altogether? These aren't like Rolex sport models, made by the tens of thousands. I tend to doubt that Patek has neither the same ability, nor same desire, to influence demand by manipulating supply. Doing so will mean a difference of a few hundred watches - not enough to truly influence market prices on $20-30k watches.

And, unlike Rolex, I don't think that the stainless models are what end up fueling purchases of the PM ones. Patek's PM models (other than simple, three-hand Calatravas) are highly desired by serious collectors and Patek needn't rely on 5711 hype to get people interested in those. To the contrary, shortages of stainless models are more likely due to Patek's production capacity being utilized elsewhere to fulfill demand for its complicated pieces.

The market will ebb and flow with regard to demand, but I tend to doubt that Patek is doing much to influence it by altering production.

If only that were true the world would make sense but alas it isn't and expensive and complicated pateks are not easy to move for patek or for customers secondhand.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by GB-man

If only that were true the world would make sense but alas it isn't and expensive and complicated pateks are not easy to move for patek or for customers secondhand.

Ok, that’s fair. However I still think it’s a very different situation from Rolex; Nautilus hype isn’t what’s going to move those in the way Daytona hype will help move mass-produced PM Rolexes using the exact same designs and movements, albeit with gold or platinum cases.

[mobster600]

Nobody mentioned this. What if people want to take some gains on their PP to buy another watch? Sell the PP, make a few bucks and upgrade their car, home remodel or family vacation? Your playing with house money, less care with the profits. If you made 20-30k, had a good time wearing the watch for 1-2 years, you might want to sell.

This situation could put a few models on the market. But too early to tell. We are very early in the price rising landscape, probably won’t see a drop for 1-2 years

[AK797]

Originally Posted by mobster600

Nobody mentioned this. What if people want to take some gains on their PP to buy another watch? Sell the PP, make a few bucks and upgrade their car, home remodel or family vacation? Your playing with house money, less care with the profits. If you made 20-30k, had a good time wearing the watch for 1-2 years, you might want to sell.

This situation could put a few models on the market. But too early to tell. We are very early in the price rising landscape, probably won’t see a drop for 1-2 years

I think the vast majority of Patek owners, esp those with more than one, can do all those things without any regard to selling their watches or any other luxury, more likely they will want to sell to upgrade their collection, but in today's world one of the conditions of an upgrade is high/rising resale value so that brings with it many restrictions on a horological upgrade, so many are in fact staying put.

[WatchLurv]

I wont be burnt. I grab all my stuff for retail. It's bound to go up when the production prices go up, so no loss here.

I wouldnt pick up a 5711 for 60K. I'd rather buy AP "The Brick" for that and still have money left over.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

If only that were true the world would make sense but alas it isn't and expensive and complicated pateks are not easy to move for patek or for customers secondhand.

My iphone does a better job with the complications

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

My iphone does a better job with the complications

If Apple ever comes out with a Perpetual Calendar Chronograph, the sky's the limit!

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I wont be burnt. I grab all my stuff for retail. It's bound to go up when the production prices go up, so no loss here.

I wouldnt pick up a 5711 for 60K. I'd rather buy AP "The Brick" for that and still have money left over.

What's "The Brick"? I must have missed out on this one. Is it the white gold, rose gold dial 15202 which they are only making 75 of?

[yellowfinger]

It's should be the all rose gold version

Sent from my SM-G9750 using Tapatalk

[ts3]

Originally Posted by cascavel

What's "The Brick"? I must have missed out on this one. Is it the white gold, rose gold dial 15202 which they are only making 75 of?

ROO Chrono 26470OR all rose gold including bracelet, not the 15202.

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I wont be burnt. I grab all my stuff for retail. It's bound to go up when the production prices go up, so no loss here.

I wouldnt pick up a 5711 for 60K. I'd rather buy AP "The Brick" for that and still have money left over.

Agree if you buy/bought any of the above list at retail (which I only buy at retail), regardless if the market pops or not or pulls back you are good

If anyone buying At these frothy prices I think you will get burned by 30% or so

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

If Apple ever comes out with a Perpetual Calendar Chronograph, the sky's the limit!

They have one. It's called the iPhone; the screen provides time/date/perpetual calendar and the "clock" function provides a chronograph :).