Will the Bubble Pop on the Patek Philippe sport watch...???

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by dannyp

They have one. It's called the iPhone; the screen provides time/date/perpetual calendar and the "clock" function provides a chronograph :).

Yeah, that was the joke....

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

Yeah, that was the joke....

I knew it was a joke...

I just thought it was a joke about Apple making a mechanical iWatch

[benlee]

I think the prices might stabilize or even adjusted down a bit after it has reached its peak but I doubt it will pop, as like the pricing collapse.

[rolexpatek363]

Prices are still rising on C24. PP are on record as being unable to increase supply, even if they wanted to. I'm waiting for the £100k 5712 (top-priced one is currently £73,376).

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by ak797

patek ss is produced in so few numbers and bought by the most affluent that they are very well protected, if their prices really suffer it means the whole market has fallen off a cliff and half the brands we know today are probably gone.

+1

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

PP are on record as being unable to increase supply, even if they wanted to.

Not sure where you got this because in one of his most recent interviews, Thierry Stern was saying how they could easily increase Nautilus production but won't because they don't want to be a one trick pony.

[watchbowl]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Not sure where you got this because in one of his most recent interviews, Thierry Stern was saying how they could easily increase Nautilus production but won't because they don't want to be a one trick pony.

Yes but that would reduce production in other models

[GB-man]

If you guys believe that Patek can’t easily produce more nautilus you’re kidding yourselves lol

It’s a game.

[Toffeeman]

I doubt the bubble will pop in near future as the market for such products are quite inelastic.

[WatchLurv]

Patek could increase production 10 fold, but they have no desire of producing 500K watches.

Patek is also OK with the grey market situation - They don't do dumb s** like Rolex with all the market "regulations" ...It must give Thierry a semi when he looks up the market price for a 5711.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Not sure where you got this because in one of his most recent interviews, Thierry Stern was saying how they could easily increase Nautilus production but won't because they don't want to be a one trick pony.

No, that's not what he said at all. He said it would take 10-15 years to train extra watchmakers if steel PP production is to increase.

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/a-...-thierry-stern

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

No, that's not what he said at all. He said it would take 10-15 years to train extra watchmakers if steel PP production is to increase.

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/a-...-thierry-stern

Thanks for the link. I got my info from this recent Esquire interview:

"We have targets in terms of complications, targets for normal movements, for men and women, and also targets in terms of material. We’re not willing to have that many steel watches. The trend today is steel because it’s easier and cheaper, but we should not go above our percentage target. We’ve seen many brands who came from gold to steel and tried to go back to gold, and it doesn’t work.” Of Patek’s popular steel Nautilus models, Stern says, “Of course, I could create 10 times what I’m selling today, but it would be too dangerous, I would become a mono-product. If Patek was part of a group it would be the opposite — it would be 90 per cent Nautilus and [a message that] we don’t care about the future… but it’s not only about money.”

https://www.esquire.com/uk/design/a2...-independence/

[BobDyl]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

No, that's not what he said at all. He said it would take 10-15 years to train extra watchmakers if steel PP production is to increase.

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/a-...-thierry-stern

Originally Posted by rollyp

Thanks for the link. I got my info from this recent Esquire interview:

"We have targets in terms of complications, targets for normal movements, for men and women, and also targets in terms of material. We’re not willing to have that many steel watches. The trend today is steel because it’s easier and cheaper, but we should not go above our percentage target. We’ve seen many brands who came from gold to steel and tried to go back to gold, and it doesn’t work.” Of Patek’s popular steel Nautilus models, Stern says, “Of course, I could create 10 times what I’m selling today, but it would be too dangerous, I would become a mono-product. If Patek was part of a group it would be the opposite — it would be 90 per cent Nautilus and [a message that] we don’t care about the future… but it’s not only about money.”

https://www.esquire.com/uk/design/a2...-independence/

I think you're both right and these are not inconsistent statements. Patek could greatly increase production but it would take a long time to do so at the expected level of quality. Respect to M. Stern for keeping the product mix healthy and not chasing the easy money.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by rollyp

Thanks for the link. I got my info from this recent Esquire interview:

"We have targets in terms of complications, targets for normal movements, for men and women, and also targets in terms of material. We’re not willing to have that many steel watches. The trend today is steel because it’s easier and cheaper, but we should not go above our percentage target. We’ve seen many brands who came from gold to steel and tried to go back to gold, and it doesn’t work.” Of Patek’s popular steel Nautilus models, Stern says, “Of course, I could create 10 times what I’m selling today, but it would be too dangerous, I would become a mono-product. If Patek was part of a group it would be the opposite — it would be 90 per cent Nautilus and [a message that] we don’t care about the future… but it’s not only about money.”

https://www.esquire.com/uk/design/a2...-independence/

He doesn't want a stainless PP to be something that everybody* can have. Everybody wants high-end stainless watches these days, but he has no interest in exploiting the point where supply meets demand, because then, in future, a Patek is no longer something intrinsically special.



*Everybody with an extra $20,000, of course...

[rollyp]

Originally Posted by dannyp

He doesn't want a stainless PP to be something that everybody* can have. Everybody wants high-end stainless watches these days, but he has no interest in exploiting the point where supply meets demand, because then, in future, a Patek is no longer something intrinsically special.



*Everybody with an extra $20,000, of course...

Very true indeed.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by BobDyl

I think you're both right and these are not inconsistent statements. Patek could greatly increase production but it would take a long time to do so at the expected level of quality. Respect to M. Stern for keeping the product mix healthy and not chasing the easy money.

Patek could produce more SS sports watches in probably 6 months or less but they want to keep them exclusive and push buyers towards lines with better margins. They are just copying the Rolex model which was arguably copied from Hermès.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Patek could produce more SS sports watches in probably 6 months or less but they want to keep them exclusive and push buyers towards lines with better margins. They are just copying the Rolex model which was arguably copied from Hermès.

On its surface it may appear that way, but there are some key differences:

1. Between Patek and Rolex. Scale aside, many of Rolex's more expensive models require no greater watchmaking skill than its simplest. Stainless and solid gold Subs have the same simple movement. With Patek, however, an increase in price is often about more than materials; the movements themselves will often require more time and skill. So pushing towards more expensive pieces? Yes. But I doubt that the margins are as good as for Rolex when making the same push.

2. Between Rolex and Hermes. It's actually the exact opposite model. Hermes makes you buy lots of little crap to be "considered" for its most prestigious goods, while Rolex "rewards" purchases of its highest priced items with "access" to the stainless pieces in greatest demand.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by BobDyl

I think you're both right and these are not inconsistent statements. Patek could greatly increase production but it would take a long time to do so at the expected level of quality. Respect to M. Stern for keeping the product mix healthy and not chasing the easy money.

Well it wasn't such easy money when he made this statement or one very similar about the one trick pony, he made that before the hype when the 5711 was selling at a discount, so he had no real incentive to do that even if he knew then that was what most buyers and certainly prospective buyers wanted. Now things have gone ballistic in that direction he'd look like a hypocrite for caving in, I wouldn't be surprised if on the sly SS production is being increased as the imbalance is so severe, but I would never expect to hear about it.

[gsg]

What is certain from T. Stern's remarks is that he doesn't give a crap about the current situation with the greys and he is indeed quite happy to see Nautiluses fetching such high prices in the secondary market. So, not really a concern to him. A big bummer for all of us potential, hopeful buyers.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by AK797

Well it wasn't such easy money when he made this statement or one very similar about the one trick pony, he made that before the hype when the 5711 was selling at a discount, so he had no real incentive to do that even if he knew then that was what most buyers and certainly prospective buyers wanted. Now things have gone ballistic in that direction he'd look like a hypocrite for caving in, I wouldn't be surprised if on the sly SS production is being increased as the imbalance is so severe, but I would never expect to hear about it.

What he's making abundantly clear is that the company has no interest in offering a "starter" Patek; there will never be a C-class of Patek Philippe. To put it another way, the stainless models are intended for Patek Philippe customers who want a stainless watch, not stainless customers who want a Patek Philippe.

[BobDyl]

I should probably add that the referenced Beavis and Butthead video neatly encapsulates everything I hate about what watch collecting has become, some kind of pseudo currency where instead of talking about horology and the love of collecting, it's about trading, value, marketing, etc, etc. Shame on me for getting sucked in once again, I'm out (of this thread)!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by dannyp

On its surface it may appear that way, but there are some key differences:

1. Between Patek and Rolex. Scale aside, many of Rolex's more expensive models require no greater watchmaking skill than its simplest. Stainless and solid gold Subs have the same simple movement. With Patek, however, an increase in price is often about more than materials; the movements themselves will often require more time and skill. So pushing towards more expensive pieces? Yes. But I doubt that the margins are as good as for Rolex when making the same push.

2. Between Rolex and Hermes. It's actually the exact opposite model. Hermes makes you buy lots of little crap to be "considered" for its most prestigious goods, while Rolex "rewards" purchases of its highest priced items with "access" to the stainless pieces in greatest demand.

You make valid points

I would argue that Patek still makes more money selling an annual or perpetual calendar than a 5711 or 5167 etc

[bruinmd]

Originally Posted by dannyp

How much will a reduction in supply really matter, given how few of these are made altogether? These aren't like Rolex sport models, made by the tens of thousands. I tend to doubt that Patek has neither the same ability, nor same desire, to influence demand by manipulating supply. Doing so will mean a difference of a few hundred watches - not enough to truly influence market prices on $20-30k watches.

And, unlike Rolex, I don't think that the stainless models are what end up fueling purchases of the PM ones. Patek's PM models (other than simple, three-hand Calatravas) are highly desired by serious collectors and Patek needn't rely on 5711 hype to get people interested in those. To the contrary, shortages of stainless models are more likely due to Patek's production capacity being utilized elsewhere to fulfill demand for its complicated pieces.

The market will ebb and flow with regard to demand, but I tend to doubt that Patek is doing much to influence it by altering production.

Spot on-- agree with all of your points.

[bruinmd]

Originally Posted by dannyp

On its surface it may appear that way, but there are some key differences:

1. Between Patek and Rolex. Scale aside, many of Rolex's more expensive models require no greater watchmaking skill than its simplest. Stainless and solid gold Subs have the same simple movement. With Patek, however, an increase in price is often about more than materials; the movements themselves will often require more time and skill. So pushing towards more expensive pieces? Yes. But I doubt that the margins are as good as for Rolex when making the same push.

2. Between Rolex and Hermes. It's actually the exact opposite model. Hermes makes you buy lots of little crap to be "considered" for its most prestigious goods, while Rolex "rewards" purchases of its highest priced items with "access" to the stainless pieces in greatest demand.

Again, spot on, especially #1

[windhover]

can anyone remember when watch prices came in meaningfully? It seems between 2010-2015 secondary market would always trade around retail +/- 10-20% for most references. For SS mainly. PMs usually lower.

It's really the last 2 years that have shot up and probably a lot of it fuelled by supply being held by the grey market to see who moves first and its usually the buyers (users) who end up sucking up grey market premiums.

That said. I like to study price movements in generally and have noticed that the rolex 16610LV (the green bezel black dial sub - pre hulk) has been steadily calming down in prices. Flat 4 full sets used to be demanding 30k and now can be usually found for 20k. Non flat 4 sets are down from 18-20 to 13-15. When people stop talking about them they cool down.

As a footnote, recently surge of instagram watches has definitely had a huge marketing effect but once the people need to get it in and buy, who is there to support the prices? If 5,000 users are there, once we get to the 5,001, the prices will begin to reason down.

Mainly for references still in production obviously. For discontinued reference's its really a closed market though still very correlated to the production references.

[enjoythemusic]

It's all about CONfidence in currencies and how much more the world's central banking schemes plan to flood the markets via MMT. Everyone knows staying in currency is a losing bet, about 50% loss in currency value just the past 20 years.. and it is accelerating!

[SL BRABUS]

Originally Posted by windhover

That said. I like to study price movements in generally and have noticed that the rolex 16610LV (the green bezel black dial sub - pre hulk) has been steadily calming down in prices. Flat 4 full sets used to be demanding 30k and now can be usually found for 20k. Non flat 4 sets are down from 18-20 to 13-15. When people stop talking about them they cool down.

IMHO.....

That not bubble buster...

Just a price correction....

The 5 digit LV could be had for $4,500 mint with box and paper at a market prices around 2008......

The 5 digit LV still appreciate 3 to 4 times the market price of 2008......

[Sam Philip]

I am not sure whether people pay large premiums for current production watches like 5740G and 5980R which can be obtained from an AD.

WF has 2 5740Gs with a premium more than £ 100000 and they have been sitting there for a while. They seem to be moving watches like 5726A which commands a lesser premium compared to 5740G

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

I am not sure whether people pay large premiums for current production watches like 5740G and 5980R which can be obtained from an AD.

WF has 2 5740Gs with a premium more than £ 100000 and they have been sitting there for a while. They seem to be moving watches like 5726A which commands a lesser premium compared to 5740G

Good to hear those are sitting, calmer minds are prevailing at the high end of the market hopefully.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by AK797

Good to hear those are sitting, calmer minds are prevailing at the high end of the market hopefully.

5740G is a fantastic watch but it is not a £ 200000 watch. A NOS 5970P which many believe is the best modern PCC can be bought for around £ 160000.