the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[AzPaul]

Looking at the numbers I've seen, if you're under 50 and don't have a compromised immune system, your chances of suffering dire consequences from this virus are pretty much slim and none. Just a fraction of 1%.

It's a different story as the age number increases but the risks should be assessed with an honest eye.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by AzPaul

Looking at the numbers I've seen, if you're under 50 and don't have a compromised immune system, your chances of suffering dire consequences from this virus are pretty much slim and none. Just a fraction of 1%.

It's a different story as the age number increases but the risks should be assessed with an honest eye.

Yes however some here are reading and posting that you can contract it a second time and the death rate is much higher. I really wish we had more detailed and accurate information.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I am not a scientist, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but the mask thing is ridiculous. A virus is microscopic, if Corona is airborne, it will go right through that mask and laugh at the wearer on the way in; completely useless. It just makes people look foolish.

I'm a scientist, and can confirm the mask stuff is ridiculous. Useful if you are sick yourself of a point-of-care healthcare worker only.

[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by mykii

I'm a scientist, and can confirm the mask stuff is ridiculous. Useful if you are sick yourself of a point-of-care healthcare worker only.

Curious, why is it useful to point-of-care healthcare workers if it’s worthless to the general public?

[mykii]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Curious, why is it useful to point-of-care healthcare workers if it’s worthless to the general public?

When I said that I meant people specifically at high-risk dealing with the patients themselves in an in-patient setting. It is a known entity there.

For the general public, the "outbreak" is so small and the general environment so uncontrollable that it is useless. A good analogy would be wearing a firefighters outfit in Midtown Manhattan, because there is a fire somewhere, when the fire is actually contained to a controlled burn in a different borough.

[scarlet knight]

I understand the mask helps a sick person from spreading a virus. But a regular mask will not prevent a virus, unless it is a fitted N95 mask.

Leave the masks for medical professionals. I understand that they are contracting 10% of the cases.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I don’t see that. I also don’t feel that personally. I’m concerned. Very. Just not enough (yet) to destroy the world economy. That will hurt a lot more people.

Let me ask you. Do you believe that millions of US infections and hundreds of thousands of US deaths is inevitable?

I have no idea what will happen. But over the weekend, Italy's Civil Protection Authority reported the country now has 1,694 confirmed Coronavirus cases, up from 1,128 confirmed cases on Saturday. Thirty-four people have died, a 2% mortality rate.

It is always important that even in 2020, the world has no immediate protection against a novel virulent viral strain. Any new vaccine against such a virus would require at least a year to produce. It is estimated that about 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population at the time, became infected with the influenza virus in 1918. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. We arent any safer against such a mutated deadly virus today than we were then.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

Curious, why is it useful to point-of-care healthcare workers if it’s worthless to the general public?

The jist of wearing masks seems to be.

1. Eric Toner, A scientist @ JHopkins says "There is little harm in it" . "but it's not likely to be effective".

vs.

2. Surgeon General says that it might INCREASE risk of catching the virus because people not used to masks will always be fiddling with them...

So..there is a conflict...but whatever.

1. CDC says the average general public doesn't need masks at all, unless they are infected to stop the spread.

2. CDC DIRECTS medial staff to wear N95 respirator masks and goggles when treating potentially infected patients.

It's difficult for average people to see lots of other people wearing masks in corona virus areas (China..etc) and the medical staff be DIRECTED to wear them...and not WANT them too. So good luck with the anti mask campaign. I have a feeling it will fall on deaf ears.

People will think if the mask keeps germs from getting out of the infected, it will stop germs from getting in...

I realize the n95 mask takes training on how to wear one, but there are plenty of people who use them for tradeswork. I bet they know how to wear one and will do so anyway.

The supply issue is interesting as I don't think retail mask purchases would have any bearing on those supplied through medical supply.

The hospitals would never pay Home Depot retail prices for masks so not sure how that is a factor. Completely different supply channel.

The retail masks were made long before the virus hit and stores have sold that stock out. Once it's gone, it's gone. The resupply will go to the medical channel first as those orders will be WAY WAY larger...

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Again, H1N1 killed 12k+ Americans and infected 60 million in 2009. Where was the panic then? Not nearly the same. Hardly anyone even remembers. This panic is largely feud by the media and the sell off.

Being a practicing ER doc in 2009, I vividly remember the outbreak and the anxiety of not knowing what was going to happen. I agree that the public awareness of the dangers is up due to constant news coverage and social media. But so is ignorance caused by the same media pushing disinformation and conspiracy theories.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I understand the mask helps a sick person from spreading a virus. But a regular mask will not prevent a virus, unless it is a fitted N95 mask.

Leave the masks for medical professionals. I understand that they are contracting 10% of the cases.

I don't understand this plea, which I've heard from numerous organizations so far. We in the health industry have access to masks before the general public does. Albeit on allocation, I can buy cases of masks today. Joe public can't go out and find one mask today.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I don't understand this plea, which I've heard from numerous organizations so far. We in the health industry have access to masks before the general public does. Albeit on allocation, I can buy cases of masks today. Joe public can't go out and find one mask today.

Thanks for the insight. I mentioned this in a post above and I recall you mentioning that before.

I do not understand the mask supply narrative at all. The medical supply channel is totally separate from retail channel.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Thanks for the insight. I mentioned this in a post above and I recall you mentioning that before.

I do not understand the mask supply narrative at all. The medical supply channel is totally separate from retail channel.

Stay healthy, medical professionals!

[Ferdelious]

This is hitting a little closer to home. A woman in her 20's in my county has contracted it. She traveled to Italy and contracted it there most likely.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Thanks for the insight. I mentioned this in a post above and I recall you mentioning that before.

I do not understand the mask supply narrative at all. The medical supply channel is totally separate from retail channel.

I thought the same as well, why say don’t buy them if there are none to buy.

I can tell you why though, years of marketing brand management thinking:

If we see people on the streets wearing them that will make us look bad on TV and also fuel fear.

This is purely strategic. Perception is reality.

If you think more about this you’ll know where it’s really coming from.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by mykii

I'm a scientist, and can confirm the mask stuff is ridiculous. Useful if you are sick yourself of a point-of-care healthcare worker only.

Thank you! The voice of intelligence and reason. The concept that an educated adult could believe a $.50 paper mask designed to filter sawdust would protect them from a virus is ludicrous. You will protect yourself better by frequently washing your hands. I believe there is one confirmed case in San Diego county, but I see people walking around everywhere with these stupid masks that look foolish.

Anyone hear about the vampire virus? If you wear garlic around your neck you won’t be infected.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Thank you! The voice of intelligence and reason. The concept that an educated adult could believe a $.50 paper mask designed to filter sawdust would protect them from a virus is ludicrous. You will protect yourself better by frequently washing your hands. I believe there is one confirmed case in San Diego county, but I see people walking around everywhere with these stupid masks that look foolish.

Anyone hear about the vampire virus? If you wear garlic around your neck you won’t be infected.

I love garlic. Yum.

[superdog]

a really good article quoting someone that is clearly very qualified.

validates a lot of what people like Brett (Patton) are saying. Sure, it is bad and it will be a very bad "flu year". But in the end, this is really not that big of a deal.

people cant downplay it based on the severity and that people will get sick and some people will die. But again, this is truly not much more than a really bad flu and many people that contract it will not even show symptoms while others will have cold like symptoms, while others still will have a bad flu.

not the end of the world.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-doctor...172012985.html

[WatchLurv]

The spread didn't take off in Hong Kong. I wonder why? There must have been some prevention and techniques in place. Look at Iran and Italy? Their numbers have far surpassed Hong Kong.

Hong Kong people are paranoid and I'm the only one not wearing a mask in public. I just don't touch my face when not wearing a mask and will wash my hands if I do touch my face.

[V25V]

CDC estimates that 18000-46000 people die each year from the flu. Nuff said, everyone needs to calm down.

[daveathall]

It is all very well for those young and fit, but when one's frail mother or father dies because of it long before their time is due. One would presume that it's quite a shocker. I'm of the opinion that this will spread more than seems to be thought by the majority commenting on this thread.

[steeevvvooo]

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/i-h...ases-next-week

"I Have To Plead For Tests" - NYC ER Doc Warns "There's Going To Be 1000s Of US Cases By Next Week"


Zerohedge is either sensationalist right wing, or cutting edge reporting the truth. I'm not opining either way but I will say they were one of the first to debunk the "wet market" orogin story and were banned from twitter as a result. A few weeks later and that narrative is almost mainstream...

Sent from my VOG-L09 using Tapatalk

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by daveathall

It is all very well for those young and fit, but when one's frail mother or father dies because of it long before their time is due. One would presume that it's quite a shocker. I'm of the opinion that this will spread more than seems to be thought on the majority of this thread.

Agreed. And people may be surprised that some of their healthy-looking friends and colleagues have invisible disabilities that make them vulnerable.

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by daveathall

It is all very well for those young and fit, but when one's frail mother or father dies because of it long before their time is due. One would presume that it's quite a shocker. I'm of the opinion that this will spread more than seems to be thought on the majority of this thread.

yes, Iran is reporting 4.4% mortality rate. Even based on 2% at 325m~ population the US that equates to about 6.5 million deaths. The death rate of the flu is only 0.1% vs the data we have on the coronavirus. What is so scary about this coronavirus how contagious it is. Flu is most contagious during the first 3-4 days. In fact my mother just had the flu and even though she lives with me and my son, neither of us got it just from my mother being careful. Keep in mind we don't have a vaccine against Coronavirus vs the flu as well so that plays a big factor.

I'm not worried as much for myself as I've got an immune system akin to a steam roller but I definitely fear for my parents and other friends and relatives.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

yes, Iran is reporting 4.4% mortality rate. Even based on 2% at 325m~ population the US that equates to about 6.5 million deaths. The death rate of the flu is only 0.1% vs the data we have on the coronavirus. What is so scary about this coronavirus how contagious it is. Flu is most contagious during the first 3-4 days. In fact my mother just had the flu and even though she lives with me and my son, neither of us got it just from my mother being careful. Keep in mind we don't have a vaccine against Coronavirus vs the flu as well so that plays a big factor.

I'm not worried as much for myself as I've got an immune system akin to a steam roller but I definitely fear for my parents and other friends and relatives.

You are going to take Iran's mortality rate and apply it to our population? Is that really a fair use of that data? I personally do not think it is.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by V25V

CDC estimates that 18000-46000 people die each year from the flu. Nuff said, everyone needs to calm down.

So because the flu kills a lot of people, we shouldn't worry too much when a new virus is spreading like wildfire?

[V25V]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

So because the flu kills a lot of people, we shouldn't worry too much when a new virus is spreading like wildfire?

I am saying it should put things into perspective. A vaccine has already been entered into trials in humans which should begin in April (there are plenty of articles on this). I just do not think its as big of a deal as everyone seems to make it (media). Social media, big news outlets, etc have been making these "headlines" about it for weeks now and of course everyone is going to get stirred up when that's all they hear/read about.

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by V25V

You are going to take Iran's mortality rate and apply it to our population? Is that really a fair use of that data? I personally do not think it is.

Would appreciate if you actually read the post carefully. I'm basing it off the universal accepted 2% right now and estimating USA population at around 325 Million

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

yes, Iran is reporting 4.4% mortality rate. Even based on 2% at 325m~ population the US that equates to about 6.5 million deaths. The death rate of the flu is only 0.1% vs the data we have on the coronavirus. What is so scary about this coronavirus how contagious it is. Flu is most contagious during the first 3-4 days. In fact my mother just had the flu and even though she lives with me and my son, neither of us got it just from my mother being careful. Keep in mind we don't have a vaccine against Coronavirus vs the flu as well so that plays a big factor.

I'm not worried as much for myself as I've got an immune system akin to a steam roller but I definitely fear for my parents and other friends and relatives.

Now..this dude with the WHO says it's less contagious than flu:

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO's chief of emergencies, pointed out that even regions that have taken less aggressive measures than the extraordinary lockdowns implemented by China have managed to keep the virus in check. Ryan said that because COVID-19 is not as easily transmitted as the flu, “it offers us a glimmer ... that this virus can be suppressed and contained.”

Huh? Less contagious. More contagious...than flu. Who knows?? i don't understand how it's less contagious. It affects the upper and lower respiratory system...the upper component being the snotty sneezing carrier for the virus to easily escape...just like a cold does. Nasty stuff.

Now the scientists are disagreeing over how much asymptomatic carriers there are. Some say it's low...others say it's a lot and they are slipping through screenings because they aren't sick, but contagious...that's why we are seeing cases pop up all over world.

Me thinks we just don't know much about this virus except it exists, gets people sick to varying degrees and is transmitted from human to human...oh and it's spreading.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

Would appreciate if you actually read the post carefully. I'm basing it off the universal accepted 2% right now and estimating USA population at around 325 Million

Gotcha, sorry missed that.

Either way, I think this will come and go but have no issues taking precaution while it is being worked out. Why someone would travel right now to one of the countries effected heavily is beyond me. Why take the risk? Wash your hands more than normal, do not pick your nose, etc.

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by V25V

Gotcha, sorry missed that.

Either way, I think this will come and go but have no issues taking precaution while it is being worked out. Why someone would travel right now to one of the countries effected heavily is beyond me. Why take the risk? Wash your hands more than normal, do not pick your nose, etc.

Manhattan's first case is a woman who came back last week from Iran even though the disease has been in Iran for some time. At first they were diligent with the airport screenings, now they abandoned it altogether and just let people travel freely partially due to the fact that carriers might not show any symptoms at all. At this point there really is no stopping the spread worldwide. We can just hope that we can arrive at a solution to this virus sooner than later