the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[RWH]

on a lighter note, Apple has pledged donations to Protezione Civile in Italy to help aid in the fight against the virus. They've already donated 15 million worldwide so far and are looking to do more. Its great PR but nevertheless a good gesture. Also carnival has offered to use its ships as temporary floating hospitals. Glad to see there are some corporations helping out regardless.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Jona

Thank you for letting me know that I, as a 70 year old retiree, contribute nothing to the economy. I shall, therefore, consider myself worthless and expendable, and shall neither seek nor accept any medical treatment for any future illness from any source, viral or otherwise.

just put them on the ignore list.

[Blansky]

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[jatco]

Originally Posted by Jona

Thank you for letting me know that I, as a 70 year old retiree, contribute nothing to the economy. I shall, therefore, consider myself worthless and expendable, and shall neither seek nor accept any medical treatment for any future illness from any source, viral or otherwise.

Originally Posted by superdog

just put them on the ignore list.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Probably the most stupid thing I've read in a long time. Congrats....

I guess you didn’t see the “are you wearing your Rolex while quarantined” thread

steve

[Jona]

Along with superdog….on that ignore list

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by dimag333

I guess you didn’t see the “are you wearing your Rolex while quarantined” thread

steve

I needed that.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Yes, but the vast majority of those will get better. The problem is the massive strain on the healthcare system while this crisis is at it's peak. I have no worries about there being enough people left to support a productive and prosperous society once this is all over.

So as long as they don’t die the impact on the economy will be minimal? NYC infections - 50% under 50. But since they don’t die we are all good.

[Seibei]

Let's look at the bright side. Carbon dioxide emissions are certainly going down and this is going to make it more likely that climate change will be mitigated. It could perhaps wake the world up to the fact that we do not really need to travel and consume as much as we have been doing. This is thankfully not all doom and gloom.

[Zakalwe]

Really disappointed to hear, both from friends/colleagues and the BBC via the news that lots of pubs and restaurants in London are still doing good business with people who don’t seem to give a toss. All whilst hospitals are seeing more and more seriously unwell people coming in.

I would support enforced deprivation of liberty at this stage. There’s always going to be a core of people who will not be told anything. They need to be “persuaded”.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by SMD

So as long as they don’t die the impact on the economy will be minimal? NYC infections - 50% under 50. But since they don’t die we are all good.

In the short term no. In the long term yes.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

Really disappointed to hear, both from friends/colleagues and the BBC via the news that lots of pubs and restaurants are still doing good business with people who don’t seem to give a toss. All whilst hospitals are seeing more and more seriously unwell people coming in.

I would support enforced deprivation of liberty at this stage. There’s always going to be a core of people who will not be told anything. They need to be “persuaded”.

UK is apparently going with a herd immunity strategy so no surprises there. Just get as many infected as soon as possible and therefore get this over with as soon as possible.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Seibei

UK is apparently going with a herd immunity strategy so no surprises there. Just get as many infected as soon as possible and therefore get this over with as soon as possible.

It’s not. That was canned about 24 hours after it was announced (though even then it wasn’t the core of the strategy, rather an intended side-effect). The Imperial study posted and quoted extensively above saw to that.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by Seibei

In the short term no. In the long term yes.

In the long term we are all dead.

[Blansky]

On a theoretical level how do you see this pandemic ending. The people most at risk will always be at risk until a vaccine, I guess. And we can’t shut the world down forever. People need to work, civilization needs jobs, an economy etc.

What is the exit strategy. Quarantine high risk people only, wait a year or more for a vaccine....

No emotional responses please, just theoretically, what do you see as an end game here.

[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by Blansky

On a theoretical level how do you see this pandemic ending. The people most at risk will always be at risk until a vaccine, I guess. And we can’t shut the world down forever. People need to work, civilization needs jobs, an economy etc.

What is the exit strategy. Quarantine high risk people only, wait a year or more for a vaccine....

No emotional responses please, just theoretically, what do you see as an end game here.

We are going to have to find a middle ground we can live with. There is likely no silver bullet, no miracle. Many, many people will get sick and some of those will die. We are just going to have to accept that it is the natural order of things.

As I've said previously, I'm not advocating simply doing nothing. However we must get back to living, working and yes - spending. I think the middle ground we arrive at will involve dramatically ramping up testing. We must identify the infected very early on and get them quarantined. We will need to continue the "social distancing," but it cannot be shelter-in-place. The last piece is that hopefully we will arrive at a treatment or treatments which can at least be somewhat effective.

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by Blansky

On a theoretical level how do you see this pandemic ending. The people most at risk will always be at risk until a vaccine, I guess. And we can’t shut the world down forever. People need to work, civilization needs jobs, an economy etc.

What is the exit strategy. Quarantine high risk people only, wait a year or more for a vaccine....

No emotional responses please, just theoretically, what do you see as an end game here.

I think hitting the pause button until science can collect enough data to understand what we are actually dealing with is a solid path. Minimize the impact on the healthcare system, treat the critically ill, work on a vaccine and/or treatments, and gather data to make sound future decisions.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Blansky

On a theoretical level how do you see this pandemic ending. The people most at risk will always be at risk until a vaccine, I guess. And we can’t shut the world down forever. People need to work, civilization needs jobs, an economy etc.

What is the exit strategy. Quarantine high risk people only, wait a year or more for a vaccine....

No emotional responses please, just theoretically, what do you see as an end game here.

At the moment the view here is that the spread of the disease needs to be curbed aggressively by isolation and social distancing, in order to minimise the strain on intensive care by too many cases popping up all at once. The idea seems to be you can relax some of these restrictions once intensive care beds are freed up, then re-implement them when cases rise.

The exit comes when there’s a vaccine or a cure, though as you say that might take a year or longer. In the meantime the economy gets marmalised.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Blansky

On a theoretical level how do you see this pandemic ending. The people most at risk will always be at risk until a vaccine, I guess. And we can’t shut the world down forever. People need to work, civilization needs jobs, an economy etc.

What is the exit strategy. Quarantine high risk people only, wait a year or more for a vaccine....

No emotional responses please, just theoretically, what do you see as an end game here.

We have to accept that the majority of the human population will be exposed to this over the next year or so, before a vaccine is available. The goal is to have the resources in place to get the most people through the exposure as possible. Many will die. Many more will die if they are infected during the peak exposure for any given geographic area, or if you live in a place with very limited resources like much of the world. If you can hold out, there will be resources available to get you through it. If you can't hold out, you very well may die alone in the hallway of a hospital or quarantine elsewhere.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

It’s not. That was canned about 24 hours after it was announced (though even then it wasn’t the core of the strategy, rather an intended side-effect). The Imperial study posted and quoted extensively above saw to that.

Thanks for that. I saw Boris talking about the herd immunity plan and I was horrified. If the herd immunity plan has indeed been canned, then people should certainly not be allowed to congregate in restaurants, etc., given how many already seem to be infected in the UK. I hope that confusion and poor leadership are not going to cause needless deaths.

[daveathall]

It seems that every country is doing it's "own thing." They should be getting all the great minds from each country and thrashing this out together. There should be a world strategy instead of whats going on now. UK and European countries doing different things from each other, the US doing different again, US states all doing different strategy's it's an absolute mess.

It looks like each countries leader wants to be crowned "the saviour of the world" when their country finds a treatment/cure/vaccine.

[mgsooner]

1. Testing, testing, testing - early identification of cases and quarantine. Develop new ways of contact tracing
2. Infrastructure - dramatically ramp up production of all necessary PPE & ventilators, build temporary medical facilities, convert existing structures into medical facilities
3. Innovate - development of an antiviral treatment

[Moggo]

What approach is the US now taking with testing? I see 90% of those tested were negative but are they testing symptomatic or others also?


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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Jona

Thank you for letting me know that I, as a 70 year old retiree, contribute nothing to the economy. I shall, therefore, consider myself worthless and expendable, and shall neither seek nor accept any medical treatment for any future illness from any source, viral or otherwise.

Jona, I know this was not meant to be funny and I am sorry you were subjected to a heartless presentation, but I had to chuckle reading your post. Stay safe my friend.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Thanks for that. I saw Boris talking about the herd immunity plan and I was horrified. If the herd immunity plan has indeed been canned, then people should certainly not be allowed to congregate in restaurants, etc., given how many already seem to be infected in the UK. I hope that confusion and poor leadership are not going to cause needless deaths.

I think it’s unarguable that more decisive and drastic action could have been taken sooner here and that delay will have cost lives. Though that’s easily said with hindsight.

I do also think it’s understandable to a degree: This situation is unprecedented in the last hundred years and the remedies - whilst they may be the right thing to do - will also have harmful consequences. These are not decisions that I would want to be having to make.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by daveathall

It seems that every country is doing it's "own thing." They should be getting all the great minds from each country and thrashing this out together. There should be a world strategy instead of whats going on now. UK and European countries doing different things from each other, the US doing different again, US states all doing different strategy's it's an absolute mess.

It looks like each countries leader wants to be crowned "the saviour of the world" when their country finds a treatment/cure/vaccine.

I agree Dave. In theory this is the role of the WHO, but until they are given the power to provide recommendations with a worldwide agreement they will be followed, the WHO has no teeth. Unfortunately many world leaders at this point feel the need to fly solo. It's disappointing, distressing, and punishes everyone, particularly those less fortunate.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What approach is the US now taking with testing? I see 90% of those tested were negative but are they testing symptomatic or others also?


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We are a country in the United States that’s used to getting something from Amazon in two days. So therefore a large portion of our population is quite upset that our country can’t instantly manufacture tens of millions of highly complicated test kits for a new virus. At least everyone blames the federal government for it even though to be perfectly frank that’s asinine. But I would like to blame them for everything anyway.

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What approach is the US now taking with testing? I see 90% of those tested were negative but are they testing symptomatic or others also?


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I think it’s highly dependent on location. Local to me, they opened a drive thru test facility just yesterday. Despite needing an appointment based on a Doctor’s orders (which requires suspicion of infection), they tested 60 the first day.

It will be interesting to see how many are tested each day to see if this high number on the first day was due to pent-up demand or if infections are really that numerous.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by Moggo

What approach is the US now taking with testing? I see 90% of those tested were negative but are they testing symptomatic or others also?


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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-criteria.html

Scroll down to “Criteria to Guide Evaluation and Laboratory Testing for COVID-19”


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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by TheDude

I think it’s highly dependent on location. Local to me, they opened a drive thru test facility just yesterday. Despite needing an appointment based on a Doctor’s orders (which requires suspicion of infection), they tested 60 the first day.

It will be interesting to see how many are tested each day to see if this high number on the first day was due to pent-up demand or if infections are really that numerous.


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THIS is a great idea. I want to visit my 86 year old mother but am very concerned that I might be a carrier. I feel fine, no symptoms, but I understand a lot of carriers have none.