the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

In an interview this morning Dr. Fauci said he would guess (based on the modeling) that there would be between 100,000-200,000 deaths in the US from Covid-19 and millions of cases. He stated there was a wide range in the modeling and that it would probably land somewhere in the middle and that seemed to be where he came up with these numbers.

But he added “I don't want to be held to that” because the pandemic is “such a moving target.”

With the amount of obesity, diabetes & heart disease in the US I highly doubt that would be correct. Looking at what Spain and Italy are going through I wouldn't be too optimistic, US healthcare isn't exactly fantastic... unfortunately.
Let's hope for the best though.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by statsman

In a bad flu season, where the vaccine missed the mark, in the US you get 40,000 deaths. That’s over six months, with a normal (bell curve) distribution. I reckon that means about 400 dead per day from flu, at peak death (middle of the curve).

Right now, we are around 400 dead per day, and we are nowhere near the peak of the curve. We are at the “tail” end of it. Even with all the measures take , the US could see 1,600 per day at peak. That’s the best case, optimistic scenario. That’s the “win”, where we limit the infections significantly.

But do we really get that many “flu” deaths?

https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-—-influenza...correction-rfc

This is important because there are so many comparisons to influenza, but the influenza numbers sent out by the CDC seem pretty suspect.

Now that we have a very virulent virus actually causing that much disease, you can see what those levels really look like in reality. No PPE. Hospitals stuffed with patients in hotspots,etc.

Is Covid-19 exposing the CDC influenza narrative as disingenuous?

Is that narrative causing dangerous marginalization mentality towards Covid-19 as people keep focusing on these potentially propped up Flu numbers and think that Covid-19 ain’t so bad....while meanwhile, it really is?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by SearChart

With the amount of obesity, diabetes & heart disease in the US I highly doubt that would be correct. Looking at what Spain and Italy are going through I wouldn't be too optimistic, US healthcare isn't exactly fantastic... unfortunately.
Let's hope for the best though.

Sorry to say most of your comment is uncalled for and kind of offensive to about half of us here.

[THC]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I just got off the phone with my parents and their best friends who vacation in Florida every year just returned from vacation two weeks ago.

One of them had tested positive for the virus on Friday and is now at St Mary’s hospital here in the intensive care unit.

Wow ..prayers and best wishes to them, Brian

[statsman]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

But do we really get that many “flu” deaths?

https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-—-influenza...correction-rfc

This is important because there are so many comparisons to influenza, but the influenza numbers sent out by the CDC seem pretty suspect.

Now that we have a very virulent virus actually causing that much disease, you can see what those levels really look like in reality. No PPE. Hospitals stuffed with patients in hotspots,etc.

Is Covid-19 exposing the CDC influenza narrative as disingenuous?

Is that narrative causing dangerous marginalization mentality towards Covid-19 as people keep focusing on these potentially propped up Flu numbers and think that Covid-19 ain’t so bad....while meanwhile, it really is?

I saw an article on that. The CDC annual flu death toll annually counts all deaths with underlying issues and diseases, exacerbated by flu, as a flu death. I think that’s fine if they’re consistent. They are doing the same with Covid-19, as is Italy, I believe, but not Germany (they only count the Covid-19 deaths where that is the only disease present).

[statsman]

Originally Posted by SearChart

With the amount of obesity, diabetes & heart disease in the US I highly doubt that would be correct. Looking at what Spain and Italy are going through I wouldn't be too optimistic, US healthcare isn't exactly fantastic... unfortunately.
Let's hope for the best though.

What issues do you have with the quality of US health care? Where is it deficient?

Which country do you live in?

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by statsman

but not Germany (they only count the Covid-19 deaths where that is the only disease present).

It just goes to show statistics do not always show what we think they do.

I wondered why Germanys figures differed so much. They are not really fiddling anything, but just recording differently.

[superdog]

This thread is not a pissing match between countries.

Everyone settle down please.

Opinions sometimes feel like facts. And sometimes opinions are mixed in with facts.

Truth is the US is filled with overweight unhealthy people. That’s fact.

But the moment calls for compassion. For all.

This thread is sharing mostly opinions and hopes. With little in the way of facts. It’s still nice to me able to chat and debate and learn.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by statsman

What issues do you have with the quality of US health care? Where is it deficient?

The United States usually ranks somewhere between 30th and 37th in the world when comparing healthcare systems and population health.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by SearChart

With the amount of obesity, diabetes & heart disease in the US I highly doubt that would be correct. Looking at what Spain and Italy are going through I wouldn't be too optimistic, US healthcare isn't exactly fantastic... unfortunately.
Let's hope for the best though.

Let's keep it positive, no need for this. I'm following this thread like others to learn and stay updated, there's some excellent commentary here.

[statsman]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

The United States usually ranks somewhere between 30th and 37th in the world when comparing healthcare systems and population health.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/...l-surgery-2015

What I see? The US does worse with preventable diseases, mainly due to obesity (in the US, morbid obesity, not starvation, is killing the poor). It does better than most in treating the difficult cases. If you have cancer, the US is a great place to have it treated (with and without insurance- contrary to what is advertised, not having health insurance does not mean you don’t get healthcare like everybody else. It means you have to talk to a social worker). If your wife is delivering three months early, the US is a great place to have a baby.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by superdog

That’s an important reminder.

Trash collectors, law enforcement, utility provides, truckers and definitely can’t forget the heroes at the supermarkets.

They are crushing it. All of them.

So grateful.

I like to call out care home workers. They are looking after the most vulnerable members of society, but seem to have been overlooked in the media appreciation

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by statsman

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/...l-surgery-2015

What I see? The US does worse with preventable diseases, mainly due to obesity (in the US, morbid obesity, not starvation, is killing the poor). It does better than most in treating the difficult cases. If you have cancer, the US is a great place to have it treated (with and without insurance- contrary to what is advertised, not having health insurance does not mean you don’t get healthcare like everybody else. It means you have to talk to a social worker). If your wife is delivering three months early, the US is a great place to have a baby.

Out of curiosity, what are the arrangements for payment in the US?

If you don’t have insurance, and cannot afford treatment, who pays the bill?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I like to call out care home workers. They are looking after the most vulnerable members of society, but seem to have been overlooked in the media appreciation

Absolutely!!!!!

And let’s call out all others that aren’t listed.

[cop414]

Originally Posted by superdog

This thread is not a pissing match between countries.

Everyone settle down please.

Opinions sometimes feel like facts. And sometimes opinions are mixed in with facts.

Truth is the US is filled with overweight unhealthy people. That’s fact.

But the moment calls for compassion. For all.

This thread is sharing mostly opinions and hopes. With little in the way of facts. It’s still nice to me able to chat and debate and learn.

Well said

[superdog]

On the positive note, my aunts fever has broken and she’s feeling much better.

And an old friend and his wife, both heavy and both heavy smokers, who tested positive and have been feeling ill for a week are both on the mend. Fevers gone and feeling better.

[jatco]

Originally Posted by superdog

On the positive note, my aunts fever has broken and she’s feeling much better.

And an old friend and his wife, both heavy and both heavy smokers, who tested positive and have been feeling ill for a week are both on the mend. Fevers gone and feeling better.

That... is good news. Hope it continues to recovery..

[Derbyshere]

I saw this covid19 event in a movie sometime ago. Name of the movie is THE SECRET TERRIER. Try and watch the episode 10 of season 1. Fast forward to the 53rd minute of the movie if you don’t have time to start from the beginning. Goes a long way to say that this whole thing was intentional but I can’t say from who and why?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by superdog

On the positive note, my aunts fever has broken and she’s feeling much better.

And an old friend and his wife, both heavy and both heavy smokers, who tested positive and have been feeling ill for a week are both on the mend. Fevers gone and feeling better.

Glad to hear your aunt is feeling better, Seth.

Does anyone know if there is going to be a coronavirus task force press event today? I know they skipped on doing one yesterday but was not sure if they were planning on holding one today. Curious to see what recommendations they come up with that were mentioned during Friday's conference.

[statsman]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Out of curiosity, what are the arrangements for payment in the US?

If you don’t have insurance, and cannot afford treatment, who pays the bill?

There is a program called “Medicaid”, a poor substitute for insurance for the poor, paid for by the government. It pays providers well below market rate, so many do not accept it.

If someone does not have Medicaid, does not have a doctor nearby, and has no insurance, there are county hospitals. County hospitals are operated by the county, and treat everybody. If you have insurance or the ability to pay, you pay. If you don’t, they treat you anyway. County hospitals do all the things other hospitals do, but tend to be a little rougher, as the poor citizens and undocumented immigrants use their ER in lieu of a regular doctor’s clinic. If someone goes to a county hospital and needs something not provided there, the doctor refers them and the social worker makes it happen.

I live in Arlington, Texas. There is a very good children’s hospital in nearby Fort Worth. My newborn daughter’s life was saved there when she was an infant. There was no distinguishing in care or treatment between any of the children- insured or not. As there shouldn’t be. I don’t know if doctors in hospitals are aware of who does and doesn’t have insurance, but they sure act like they don’t know (or care).

[Deepsea Florida]

Originally Posted by Derbyshere

I saw this covid19 event in a movie sometime ago. Name of the movie is THE SECRET TERRIER. Try and watch the episode 10 of season 1. Fast forward to the 53rd minute of the movie if you don’t have time to start from the beginning. Goes a long way to say that this whole thing was intentional but I can’t say from who and why?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think I saw the sequel, THE UNKNOWN POODLE.

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Sorry to say most of your comment is uncalled for and kind of offensive to about half of us here.

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Let's keep it positive, no need for this. I'm following this thread like others to learn and stay updated, there's some excellent commentary here.

Didn't mean to offend anyone, I'm sorry if I did.

[Prettythings]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Glad to hear your aunt is feeling better, Seth.

Does anyone know if there is going to be a coronavirus task force press event today? I know they skipped on doing one yesterday but was not sure if they were planning on holding one today. Curious to see what recommendations they come up with that were mentioned during Friday's conference.

Scheduled for 5:00pm eastern.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by superdog

This thread is not a pissing match between countries.

Everyone settle down please.

Opinions sometimes feel like facts. And sometimes opinions are mixed in with facts.

Truth is the US is filled with overweight unhealthy people. That’s fact.

But the moment calls for compassion. For all.

This thread is sharing mostly opinions and hopes. With little in the way of facts. It’s still nice to me able to chat and debate and learn.

Great post. What will come out of this is how deficient MOST of our nations' health care systems are. Trying to score points is futile when we're all losers in this. No country is doing a great job with Covid19 apart from the ones who slowed it down quickly in the East.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Didn't mean to offend anyone, I'm sorry if I did.

We might be too fat Bas but you Dutch are too tall. Very embarrassing

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by GB-man

We might be too fat Bas but you Dutch are too tall. Very embarrassing

Yes we are lol (except for me, I am just average here at 6'0'')

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by superdog

On the positive note, my aunts fever has broken and she’s feeling much better.

And an old friend and his wife, both heavy and both heavy smokers, who tested positive and have been feeling ill for a week are both on the mend. Fevers gone and feeling better.

If you listen to the news, it seems like everyone who is older or has a pre-existing condition goes straight to the respirator.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

If you listen to the news, it seems like everyone who is older or has a pre-existing condition goes straight to the respirator.

I did not know that. Thank you for that information. I’m begging my mother to stay in her house up in Maine. She is 76 years old with COPD.

Problem is she’s also extremely healthy other than her COPD and she wants to get out and see people. So far she has stayed home. We’re blessed to have friends to bring her groceries.

[GB-man]

I can’t help but think of Happy Gilmore in these times.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I don’t believe that ranking for a second I’m confident came from some biased outfit. Can we stop bashing the United States on this thread please? I have a line of friends from Europe that when they lived here loved our medical system better than their own. That’s not what this thread is about.

My son is working in New Jersey (Jersey City), he is and I am very confident in the professionalism and the skill of the US system, it would be nice if he were closer home in these times but I am happy that he is somewhere he loves.

I am in awe of medical staff the world over, thanks to all of them.