the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[superdog]

Originally Posted by zengineer

The market is a reflection of how people think or feel about the future. An investor buys because he believes a stock will be worth more in the future.

To wave off panic and overreaction as noise is to misunderstand the market. Stock prices are of course influenced by technical valuation calculations but not bound to them.

You can insist it is just noise all you want and smugly insist the answer is always "do nothing, ignore volatility" but I'd rather be the guy that accepts that panic happens, pulled money out days ago and can get back in at a 10% discount.

Sent from my Motorola Bag Phone

Trust me, I wish I got out a few days ago.

But trying to time the market goes against most strategy.

I find historically, in tough times like this, sticking to the plan makes or breaks winners and losers.

Of course, everyone has different plans.

If I sell now, I’m screwed. If it goes all the way down, we are all screwed, and it doesn’t much matter anyway.

I’m genuinely glad you got out. Truth is, I’ve been telling my FA for months that we need to get out. I’ve been preaching impending doom on here for months. I’m glad I’ve got so much in fixed income. But I’m gutted with how much I’ve lost in equities.

Either way, what I’m trying to say is I believe your comments to be spot on.

Watching CNBC now as I do every morning. And oooff. It’s painful.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by jonnyz1245

You are 100% correct.



The rest is just noise. Anybody that thinks any different clearly has zero understanding of how the markets work.



The stock market doesn't watch the news

Maybe in a perfect world. This stock market hasn't been based in reality for a long time.

There are AI bots that trade based on what they see on Twitter. That is exactly the definition of market watching the news. HFTs that trade on pennies of arbitrage and front run limit orders and pick off stops. I would love it if what you said was true, but it really isn't.

Google: 2010 Flash Crash and explain how core principles of $1,000,000,000,000 investing changed in 36 minutes.

[enjoythemusic]

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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by gtnator

It’s hard to compare then and now. Back then you couldn’t travel so easily across cities let alone across the globe.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We will then respectfully disagree. People did indeed travel far and wide in the late 1700’s and 1800’s. The epidemics were far, far more lethal and a public never more ill prepared-not even understanding the causes let alone having adequate medical care. Yet society moved on, and progressed.

See it’s history that puts these things in their proper perspectives so they can be viewed and understood more easily. Small pox, yellow fever, cholera, typhus, etc killing thousands every year in the 13 colonies. In 1793, 5000 people died and 17000 fled Philadelphia that’s out of about 40,000 total citizens in that city at the time.

Same with politics, people think things are crazy now, actual physical fights have broken out in Congress in the 1800’s, think the media is divisive now, look into the the Aurora newspaper stared by Benjamin Franklin Bache in the late 1700’s. A newspaper secretly in league with Thomas Jefferson to undermine the federalists at the time.

My point being that looking to history will do much to squash the hysteria regarding this seasons epidemic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fat_ninja]

[jaisonline]

Solid read or listen.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/27/81001...re-and-prevent

[Zakalwe]

Extreme caution must be taken in interpreting mortality statistics at this point because it is an absolute certainty that the denominator is higher than reported - because the number of confirmed cases will always be lower than the number of total cases. The only question is how big the discrepancy is between those two numbers: we have to hope it’s large but nobody is currently able to even provide a decent estimate. Time will tell.

[Pantheon]

The scariest part of all this is that it seems people can get it again even after they recover from it. If we get lucky and this goes away in the springtime then we just need to hold out and be as careful as possible. If people can't develop antibodies to this virus then vaccines might not be entirely useful even when available

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

The scariest part of all this is that it seems people can get it again even after they recover from it. If we get lucky and this goes away in the springtime then we just need to hold out and be as careful as possible. If people can't develop antibodies to this virus then vaccines might not be entirely useful even when available

This point seems to be lost in all the misinformation. Very scary. This in addition to those who are asymptomatic and spreading without being aware.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

The scariest part of all this is that it seems people can get it again even after they recover from it. If we get lucky and this goes away in the springtime then we just need to hold out and be as careful as possible. If people can't develop antibodies to this virus then vaccines might not be entirely useful even when available

that's right. this may end up becoming just another strain of the flu. no guarantees this goes away for good ever.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The average life expectancy of a Chinese person living in China is already less than 80 years, Coronavirus or no Coronavirus. Think about that.

[1Zach1]

Originally Posted by pickettt

The average life expectancy of a Chinese person living in China is already less than 80 years, Coronavirus or no Coronavirus. Think about that.

So is the United States.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by 1Zach1

So is the United States.

Not the thought I was trying to provoke

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Do you realize what you just said? I really want you to reflect on your statement.

This entire selloff has been because of the news. Read the investment threads on this very forum and you’ll see quite a few self-proclaimed stock market geniuses (I have no problem with that by the way) dumping all their stocks because of this coronavirus. Now they either heard about it on the news and watched other people panic selling so they did the same or they’re all psychics and it came to them in a dream.

Love your tenacity... has it occurred to you that stock prices are shifting due to the economics of the situation, supply chain being disrupted due to an outbreak, workers not making to to work, etc? And the news is reporting on that, because it's kind of a big deal.

If you recall (maybe you don't) earlier on, the stock market gained, despite the news (contrary to your theory)... but as the situation started catching up, it was clear things were going south... Businesses stated they weren't going to make quarterly projections... Not because of the news, the news was reported because of this... You keep believing what you want, sorry the news is disrupting your business..

Oh and I never proclaimed myself as a "stock market genius", none of us have if I recall, just a friendly thread on trading. Or was.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Love your tenacity... has it occurred to you that stock prices are shifting due to the economics of the situation, supply chain being disrupted due to an outbreak, workers not making to to work, etc? And the news is reporting on that, because it's kind of a big deal.

If you recall (maybe you don't) earlier on, the stock market gained, despite the news (contrary to your theory)... but as the situation started catching up, it was clear things were going south... Businesses stated they weren't going to make quarterly projections... Not because of the news, the news was reported because of this... You keep believing what you want, sorry the news is disrupting your business..

Oh and I never proclaimed myself as a "stock market genius", none of us have if I recall, just a friendly thread on trading. Or was.

Tenacity? I love it. All I’m saying is the media is using this virus to scare the living crap out of the American people and it’s working. I’m also saying they are doing it on purpose to try and crash the economy. That also appears to be working. There seems to be people here that are playing right into it. This is an observation of mine. Now hopefully you won’t be tenacious like me. :-)

At the end of the day it’s fine to have a discussion about this and not get nasty. If you feel like I’ve said something wrong then PM me and let me know and I will apologize for it. If not let’s continue to have a civil conversation and discuss our opinions.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by beshannon

This point seems to be lost in all the misinformation. Very scary. This in addition to those who are asymptomatic and spreading without being aware.

Excellent point. Time to sell some more stocks?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Thank you for that chart. I was looking for one myself. It’s extremely helpful. I appreciate it.

[Laszlo]

What I find most fascinating is that all markets are crashing except for China’s. They had an early brunt but it wasn’t even a correction. It’s been fairly stable since. So while a recovery happens there, the rest of the world burns. Is it just me who finds this deeply fascinating? I don’t want to sound like a conspirator, but it would be an opportunity to financially pick up the pieces and take full leverage of ones competitor.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Tenacity? I love it. All I’m saying is the media is using this virus to scare the living crap out of the American people and it’s working. I’m also saying they are doing it on purpose to try and crash the economy. That also appears to be working. There seems to be people here that are playing right into it. This is an observation of mine. Now hopefully you won’t be tenacious like me. :-)

At the end of the day it’s fine to have a discussion about this and not get nasty. If you feel like I’ve said something wrong then PM me and let me know and I will apologize for it. If not let’s continue to have a civil conversation and discuss our opinions.

Yes, and that is you opinion and you are entitled to that opinion, nobody's going to change it. But it's the way you respond to some people in a condescending manner ("Lol, K"; "Self proclaimed stock market geniuses", etc) that really shows you as a self proclaimed know it all. And nobody likes that, and least I think not. But you keep doing you.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Yes, and that is you opinion and you are entitled to that opinion, nobody's going to change it. But it's the way you respond to some people in a condescending manner ("Lol, K"; "Self proclaimed stock market geniuses", etc) that really shows you as a self proclaimed know it all. And nobody likes that, and least I think not. But you keep doing you.

Well I’m sorry then. I’m not Sorry for the LOL K thing though. Somebody tried to ask me to take the Washington post seriously. That deserved an LOL K.

I most certainly don’t know it all. If you don’t believe that you can ask my wife and she will verify that. :-)

I do feel strongly however that we are incredibly overreacting as a country and it’s being cheered on by the media for cynical purposes. And as you said I’m allowed to have my opinion. So once again if I upset you then I apologize.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

This point seems to be lost in all the misinformation. Very scary. This in addition to those who are asymptomatic and spreading without being aware.

yep. this alone changes the game and makes this situation far more serious.

again though, a bit of Mother Nature cleaning house. for better and for worse.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

What I find most fascinating is that all markets are crashing except for China’s. They had an early brunt but it wasn’t even a correction. It’s been fairly stable since. So while a recovery happens there, the rest of the world burns. Is it just me who finds this deeply fascinating? I don’t want to sound like a conspirator, but it would be an opportunity to financially pick up the pieces and take full leverage of ones competitor.

However you feel about the President, his news conference was incoherent and not reassuring. Wall Street is voting on his approach. This is all people are talking about and the stock market reflects the panic. Food store shelves emptying next.

[GoingPlaces]

All we keep hearing are conflicting opinions from "experts", leaders, media, and politicians. Followed up by trying to read into what the market activity "really" means. At the end of the day, this could blow over or become a real disaster. I do agree with certain others that the media is over feeding this as they normally do.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

What I find most fascinating is that all markets are crashing except for China’s. They had an early brunt but it wasn’t even a correction. It’s been fairly stable since. So while a recovery happens there, the rest of the world burns. Is it just me who finds this deeply fascinating? I don’t want to sound like a conspirator, but it would be an opportunity to financially pick up the pieces and take full leverage of ones competitor.

I believe they got a $3 trillion capital injection from none other than the central bank.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by beshannon

This point seems to be lost in all the misinformation. Very scary. This in addition to those who are asymptomatic and spreading without being aware.

Brian I've seen this alluded to but haven't come across any firm statement from a national or world health organization. Has this been verified by the scientific community as of yet?

I wouldn't be surprised if there are already hundreds of infected individuals right now who are currently undiagnosed. The manifestations are mild in the vast majority of cases, just a nasty respiratory tract infection that wouldn't necessarily trigger a patient to seek care. We should face the fact that the majority of Americans will eventually be exposed, and hope that it is gradual rather than sudden with the measures we take. Hospitals are bracing for a sudden wave of patients needing ICU support to survive this infection, but we haven't stressed the system like this across the country since I've been practicing at least.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

However you feel about the President, his news conference was incoherent and not reassuring. Wall Street is voting on his approach. This is all people are talking about and the stock market reflects the panic. Food store shelves emptying next.

Well there goes this thread. Thanks man.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

Brian I've seen this alluded to but haven't come across any firm statement from a national or world health organization. Has this been verified by the scientific community as of yet?

I wouldn't be surprised if there are already hundreds of infected individuals right now who are currently undiagnosed. The manifestations are mild in the vast majority of cases, just a nasty respiratory tract infection that wouldn't necessarily trigger a patient to seek care. We should face the fact that the majority of Americans will eventually be exposed, and hope that it is gradual rather than sudden with the measures we take. Hospitals are bracing for a sudden wave of patients needing ICU support to survive this infection, but we haven't stressed the system like this across the country since I've been practicing at least.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/article...xperts-say.htm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/h...mptomatic.html

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://www.sciencetimes.com/article...xperts-say.htm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/h...mptomatic.html

You are the man, thanks

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

You are the man, thanks

You are welcome Side effect of staring at 5 monitors at once

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://www.sciencetimes.com/article...xperts-say.htm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/h...mptomatic.html

Hmmm I couldn't access the NYT article behind the paywall, but from the Science Times article it seems that this is speculation based on what a few Chinese physicians were able to leak out to media sources. That makes sense at this point in time because there is no other region that has been hit hard enough for long enough to observe reinfection, but I'll still take this as anecdotal only at this point.

Some sobering info from my professional society's recent publication (RSNA):

1. 50% of patients with infection can have normal CT scans 0-2 days after symptom onset.
2. The blood test sensitivity may be as low as 60-70%, so a false negative blood test in symptomatic patients is quite possible.
3. Abnormalities on CT scans when they do occur are pretty nonspecific when they do show up. Good news is that there is a pattern, so if we know there is a clinical suspicion, we can support a diagnosis and assess severity by imaging.
4. Abnormalities peak 9-13 days after symptom onset, and take over 1 month to clear up. This is not unusual, as imaging findings often lag behind clinical recovery with infection anywhere.

TL;DR we don't have the tools to reliably and accurately diagnose or exclude this disease early in its course.