the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[gmh1013]

My best guess is what you see in Italy will happen in USA unless they come to terms on how bad it really is and take draconian measures to contain it.

[WatchLurv]

This virus is gone by Summer.

I'm just waiting for the hotter temperatures to hit Europe so I can be there to fist pump and drink champagne.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

This virus is gone by Summer.

I'm just waiting for the hotter temperatures to hit Europe so I can be there to fist pump and drink champagne.

It's been over 80 in Singapore throughout the crisis.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

It's been over 80 in Singapore throughout the crisis.

Other coronaviruses don't fair well with UV light (changes its shape) and tend to subside under hotter weather and humidity.

People could have gotten Corona in Singapore due to someone touching a railing in a mall and then transferred it that way.

Singapore is at 138 infected currently:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

[77T]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

It's been over 80 in Singapore throughout the crisis.

Studies stretching back to the Spanish flu and again in the 1960’s showed a higher temperature was needed to significantly reduce regular flu virus longevity.

The results from the study showed that flu actually survives longer at low humidity and low temperatures. At 43°F with very low humidity, most of the virus was able to survive more than 23 hours. But high humidity and a temperature of 90°F significantly reduced survival to approximately one hour.

So in regions that have a winter season, flu virus survives longer in cold, dry air and has a greater chance of infecting another person. In tropic zones, ironically, monsoon periods reduce flu transmission

As for this novel virus, it’s too soon for new studies to yield results.


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

When I read more about the lung damage including dead tissue shedding inside the lung at rates that actually clogged oxygen and blood flow within days I summed this up as being pretty serious. Let alone that recent BBC video in Iran that showed one local hospital with mountains of body bags with accusations of covering up the real death rate. That was real and just one small hospital. I'm sorry but something is terribly wrong.

When I saw the videos of Chinese authorities allegedly welding apartment doors shut to enforce their quarantine, my first reaction is that this ain’t just a flu...

This will be harder to contain in the west. As you can see in N. Italy, they gave a quarantine deadline () so lots of people just hopped on trains and headed south before the “quarantine”took hold. Some quarantine!

Hopefully summer can slow this down some.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Other coronaviruses don't fair well with UV light (changes its shape) and tend to subside under hotter weather and humidity.

People could have gotten Corona in Singapore due to someone touching a railing in a mall and then transferred it that way.

Singapore is at 138 infected currently:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

I appreciate your optimism but I was suggesting that even with change in temp it might not be time to drink champagne. Life in Singapore is far from normal in spite of summer like temps...

https://fortune.com/2020/02/28/singa...ined-response/

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

When I saw the videos of Chinese authorities allegedly welding apartment doors shut to enforce their quarantine, my first reaction is that this ain’t just a flu...

This will be harder to contain in the west. As you can see in N. Italy, they gave a quarantine deadline () so lots of people just hopped on trains and headed south before the “quarantine”took hold. Some quarantine!

Hopefully summer can slow this down some.

On the bright side first time in recent history Italian train engineers weren't on strike.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

On the bright side first time in recent history Italian train engineers weren't on strike.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/reut...others.htmlNot

Non strike, but the layoffs are coming...look like transportation first.

Followed by tech firms:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/...-cutting-jobs/

The consulting firms are already at it...advising the layoff strategy...as nothing reassures panicked shareholders more than a nice layoff..and that’s what corporate leadership must do, is maintain shareholder value or else!

Just as companies are reflecting upon the need for attending expensive business conventions and even having physical “offices” to begin with, some are seeing an opportunity to shed some overhead and do more with less..

Once one corporation announces, the rest will follow suit. It’s a contagion on to itself.

I hope I am wrong and there is some real foresight, but the numbers will force alotta hands and “opportunity” to cut costs will be tough to resist.

[77T]

While some industries have been hit harder than others in the immediate aftermath (e.g., travel, tourism, transport, shipping and energy) - it will be companies in any industry with a pre-existing financial condition, or vulnerable competitive position, that experience the worst outcomes.

Sort of like the scenarios we hear about the humans who contract COVID-19.

The equity and bond markets are reflecting uncertainty of future returns versus a long-term historical record of performance. The novel virus dims the view of a rosy earnings report for 3Q.



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[Art 1]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

When I saw the videos of Chinese authorities allegedly welding apartment doors shut to enforce their quarantine, my first reaction is that this ain’t just a flu...

This will be harder to contain in the west. As you can see in N. Italy, they gave a quarantine deadline () so lots of people just hopped on trains and headed south before the “quarantine”took hold. Some quarantine!

Hopefully summer can slow this down some.

If the Chineese were welding doors shut it makes one wonder if it was a germ warfare experiment that got out.

[coffeebreak]

https://youtu.be/aHs9VBShzbA

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I appreciate your optimism but I was suggesting that even with change in temp it might not be time to drink champagne. Life in Singapore is far from normal in spite of summer like temps...

https://fortune.com/2020/02/28/singa...ined-response/

I've been going to Singapore regularly for the past 3 months. It's not really put a slow to the nightlife. Expats still mingle like never before. You just get an alcohol spray on your hands and a temperature check

[77T]

Originally Posted by Art 1

If the Chineese were welding doors shut it makes one wonder if it was a germ warfare experiment that got out.

Well if it was true I could understand the wondering...but...

The “citizen journalist” report of welding doors shut was debunked over a month ago. But this does point out the new social media system under which this potential pandemic will play out.

The story started in China via a tweet - https://twitter.com/mr_yan_vip/statu...06367780556800 -

...and then the Washington post reported it in early February - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...s-your-health/

And I don’t see any welding in either report.

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

When I saw the videos of Chinese authorities allegedly welding apartment doors shut to enforce their quarantine, my first reaction is that this ain’t just a flu...

Did you save the link to that video?
Just wondering if it was different than the Tweet...

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[daveathall]

.

[77T]

Thanks much.

If they were welding all doors except the entrance(s) where temperature screenings occurred, then it is an example of tight controls. Dangerous, of course, in case of an evacuation for fire or earthquake.

But I do understand how this reflects surprising steps that didn’t accompany SARS. I can’t comment on the accuracy that all doors were being welded - that gets into political waters.


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[daveathall]

.

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I've been going to Singapore regularly for the past 3 months. It's not really put a slow to the nightlife. Expats still mingle like never before. You just get an alcohol spray on your hands and a temperature check

I agree with your assessment; it’s very likely this will all go away by the time summer sun sets in.

Interestingly enough about Singapore. According to news report, of the 150 people diagnosed with the virus so far in that country, 90 have fully recovered and 60 still in hospital making good progress towards recovering. No fatality.

I believe the heat and plenty of sun do help. Coronavirus is indeed susceptible to the UV ray.

[77T]

I didn’t mean to invite videos that are unhelpful or incendiary when I asked for the link.

When I say unhelpful or incendiary, I mean those which contain veiled political diatribes however skillfully they are veiled.

Some YT vloggers are now including “dog whistle” narratives couched in pseudo-facts around coronavirus and/or some countries dealing with the outbreak.

This is a type of insidious political messaging that employs “coded” language that appears to mean one thing to the general public but has specific resonance for a targeted subgroup who wants to advance their bias.


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[daveathall]

Originally Posted by 77T

I didn’t mean to invite videos that are unhelpful or incendiary when I asked for the link.

When I say unhelpful or incendiary, I mean those which contain veiled political diatribes however skillfully they are veiled.

Some YT vloggers are now including “dog whistle” narratives couched in pseudo-facts around coronavirus and/or some countries dealing with the outbreak.

This is a type of insidious political messaging that employs “coded” language that appears to mean one thing to the general public but has specific resonance for a targeted subgroup who wants to advance their bias.


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I thought I was being helpful, I never watched it all. I removed them.

A PM saying "Hey Dave, do you realise what you posted?" Might have been more helpful than the "Holier than thou" diatribe you posted above.

[gtnator]

Originally Posted by 77T

I didn’t mean to invite videos that are unhelpful or incendiary when I asked for the link.

When I say unhelpful or incendiary, I mean those which contain veiled political diatribes however skillfully they are veiled.

Some YT vloggers are now including “dog whistle” narratives couched in pseudo-facts around coronavirus and/or some countries dealing with the outbreak.

This is a type of insidious political messaging that employs “coded” language that appears to mean one thing to the general public but has specific resonance for a targeted subgroup who wants to advance their bias.


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So thankful you’re here and for your intelligent analysis. TRF is awesome!


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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

As a certified hypochondriac just reading this thread is causing me to have Corona symptoms.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Art 1

If the Chineese were welding doors shut it makes one wonder if it was a germ warfare experiment that got out.

I considered that...

I also considered that there is a compare and contrast analysis being done of the responses different countries are initiating to the virus and how effective they are.

That information would be interesting and useful to those who are into that sort of thing.

[77T]

Originally Posted by daveathall

I thought I was being helpful, I never watched it all. I removed them.

A PM saying "Hey Dave, do you realise what you posted?" Might have been more helpful than the "Holier than thou" diatribe you posted above.

I apologize to you Dave for any offense you took.

I was originally asking Fleetlord for the link he viewed. I thanked you for the first two you posted.

Then the last one worried me that others might pile onto the political side of this situation.

That would’ve sent the thread into the ash bin methinks.


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[daveathall]

Originally Posted by 77T

I apologize to you Dave for any offense you took.

I was originally asking Fleetlord for the link he viewed. I thanked you for the first two you posted.

Then the last one worried me that others might pile onto the political side of this situation.

That would’ve sent the thread into the ask bin methinks.

Yes, I see your point Paul. Alls good my friend. It is a good thread and shouldn't be jeopardised.

[77T]

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[Laszlo]

This is a very interesting read.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-are-inflamed

[TheVTCGuy]

From ABC news a day ago: 12 dead, 188 infected in the US.

On a serious note, I will pray for those victims and their families. Now,

350 million, 188 infected, that equals a. .0000005 ish percent chance of being infected with this virus.

According to National Geographic, your odds of getting hit by lightning in one year is one in 700,000 or .0000015 ish percent.

In other words, your chances of getting hit by lightning are higher then CONTRACTING this virus, much less dying from it.

Let’s not sell the house for gold, head to the hills and barricade ourselves in the cave shall we?

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

From ABC news a day ago: 12 dead, 188 infected in the US.

On a serious note, I will pray for those victims and their families. Now,

350 million, 188 infected, that equals a. .0000005 ish percent chance of being infected with this virus.

According to National Geographic, your odds of getting hit by lightning in one year is one in 700,000 or .0000015 ish percent.

In other words, your chances of getting hit by lightning are higher then CONTRACTING this virus, much less dying from it.

Let’s not sell the house for gold, head to the hills and barricade ourselves in the cave shall we?

I'm not convinced it's that simple. What do you think your odds are if you are near an infected person who sneezes? Cases are low in the US right now, but I think it will get worse before it gets better unfortunately. I'm taking it seriously so far. And with talk of potential permanent lung damage, and reading up on it, this day is now a major bummer for me

[77T]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

From ABC news a day ago: 12 dead, 188 infected in the US.

On a serious note, I will pray for those victims and their families. Now,

350 million, 188 infected, that equals a. .0000005 ish percent chance of being infected with this virus.

According to National Geographic, your odds of getting hit by lightning in one year is one in 700,000 or .0000015 ish percent.

In other words, your chances of getting hit by lightning are higher then CONTRACTING this virus, much less dying from it.

Let’s not sell the house for gold, head to the hills and barricade ourselves in the cave shall we?

I certainly agree with your final sentence, Paul...this is a time for cool heads. Just like when you had a bogey on your high 6.

By the theory of large numbers, your long division may be mathematically correct - but that isn’t the actual risk profile. It depends on many variables and some coincidences of our own.

Recommended reading for us all: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ssessment.html

Scroll down to some specifics under “Exposure Risk Categories”. I hasten to add this disclaimer - I am not calling anyone out - just sharing in the spirit of communication.


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