the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[77T]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

I'm not convinced it's that simple. What do you think your odds are if you are near an infected person who sneezes? Cases are low in the US right now, but I think it will get worse before it gets better unfortunately. I'm taking it seriously so far. And with talk of potential permanent lung damage, and reading up on it, this day is now a major bummer for me

Catching it is one thing. It is quite low for the vast majority of us b

Our own immune systems and other coincidental health issues will dictate the level of damage. Remember the lung scar tissue you may have read about is a result of doctors not knowing a patients full history of other compromising lung diseases.


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[77T]

Can we pause a moment?

Everyday on the Oxygen habit is a good one -

Here in ATL area it is a beautiful day - I hope anyone having a bad day or night can cross the threshold of optimism.

Yes, even those of us who are at risk, or concerned about this topic. At least spend a minute in quiet reflection on your excellent experiences on planet Earth thus far. Give those thoughts a chance to fill your amygdala and supplant any built-up negative emotions.


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[c41006]

Originally Posted by 77T

Can we pause a moment?

Everyday on the Oxygen habit is a good one -

Here in ATL area it is a beautiful day - I hope anyone having a bad day or night can cross the threshold of optimism.

Yes, even those of us who are at risk, or concerned about this topic. At least spend a minute in quiet reflection on your excellent experiences on planet Earth thus far. Give those thoughts a chance to fill your amygdala and supplant any built-up negative emotions.


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A beautiful day indeed! I just took my dog for a walk around Midtown and Piedmont park. It was so refreshing and relaxing. Thanks for injecting a little positivity!

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by 77T

Can we pause a moment?

Everyday on the Oxygen habit is a good one -

Here in ATL area it is a beautiful day - I hope anyone having a bad day or night can cross the threshold of optimism.

Yes, even those of us who are at risk, or concerned about this topic. At least spend a minute in quiet reflection on your excellent experiences on planet Earth thus far. Give those thoughts a chance to fill your amygdala and supplant any built-up negative emotions.


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Nice. It was raining absolutely every day last week while I was in Atlanta.


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

If you study this website you’ll see that the death rate coming from countries everyone seems to agree to trust is well less than 1%. Now we all know the deaths reported have to be (pretty) accurate (again coming from countries we trust like Switzerland, South Korea, Japan, US etc.) and what everyone seems to be not believing is the amount of people confirmed to have contracted the virus. Most everyone here seems to believe that number is higher because most people infected just don’t go to the doctors because they don’t get symptoms or don’t feel bad enough so as a result those folks don’t get tested. I believe that to be a reasonable assumption.

Now taking all this into consideration I’m still confused as to why so many people around the world are reacting the way they are. The only thing I can figure is the media hyping this up or even worse than that there are many YouTube websites promoting this as pretty much the end of the world. For people with health issues that are over 60 years old like my mother I completely understand voluntary self isolation or at least restricted movement until things calm down a bit or at least more is known. With some of the reactions I’m reading here and other places in social media just has me baffled. The only thing I can figure is some people must really believe all the governments of the world are lying and this thing is 1000 times worse than what they are saying because so far the evidence we have just doesn’t point to that.

I have a few friends in China that have told me things are calming down and people are going back to work in the factories. I do not know why they would lie to me. After all they were the ones that told me their own government forced them to stay home for over a month.

Anyway, peace to everyone here. I will be working as normal this week and that includes travel throughout my region in the southeast United States. I will conduct myself with caution as I always do when it comes to protecting my health. I also am well supplied in my home and have been ever since I moved to Florida because we have to deal with a serious threat of a hurricane every year which can absolutely take out a regions resources for a while if you are in the direct impact zone.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by 77T

Can we pause a moment?

Everyday on the Oxygen habit is a good one -

Here in ATL area it is a beautiful day - I hope anyone having a bad day or night can cross the threshold of optimism.

Yes, even those of us who are at risk, or concerned about this topic. At least spend a minute in quiet reflection on your excellent experiences on planet Earth thus far. Give those thoughts a chance to fill your amygdala and supplant any built-up negative emotions.


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Thanks for this Paul, yes it's a beautiful day here. Gonna head outside and walk the dog. This crazy mutt:

[The Joker]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

350 million, 188 infected, that equals a. .0000005 ish percent chance of being infected with this virus.

Hmmm, the infected is accelerating everyday, look what's happened in Italy, so that math is way out.

This is only killing the elderly and underlying so they need to take steps to isolate as much as possible.

This is gonna run until a vaccine is created and mass produced which sounds like will be over a year, companies and the economy are going to be affected very badly.

[gmh1013]

At 8pm cst last Sunday there were 71 confirmed cases in the USA
at 4:15 cst one week later there are 511 .....that a pretty large jump in 7 days....

[c41006]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

At 8pm cst last Sunday there were 71 confirmed cases in the USA
at 4:15 cst one week later there are 511 .....that a pretty large jump in 7 days....

Who knows how many cases are out there going unreported with mild symptoms

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

From ABC news a day ago: 12 dead, 188 infected in the US.

On a serious note, I will pray for those victims and their families. Now,

350 million, 188 infected, that equals a. .0000005 ish percent chance of being infected with this virus.

According to National Geographic, your odds of getting hit by lightning in one year is one in 700,000 or .0000015 ish percent.

In other words, your chances of getting hit by lightning are higher then CONTRACTING this virus, much less dying from it.

Let’s not sell the house for gold, head to the hills and barricade ourselves in the cave shall we?

I see your point Paul and agree that perspective is better than panic. But there are at least three potential problems with using current verified US cases and the lightning analogy as a statistical predictor of potential future US infection rates.

First, the US has not had the ability to test and still lags behind other countries. So the number of reported may be of little value. For example, my state lacks the ability to test all comers. And it is still early days in tracing the two reported cases in NC.

Second, low estimates I have read are that each person infects 2-3 others. Lightning does not work that way. In other words, unlike viruses, the odds of lightning strikes do not increase with the number of people struck, lightning strike odds are constant, not exponentially increasing.

Third, assuming for the sake of argument that there are only 188 in the US at this point in time I get your point as to odds at to this point in time. But China also only had 188 cases at one point in time (and so did Italy). And the odds of getting the virus in Wuhan increased exponentially before some very draconian quarantine measures were undertaken.

So, my question is what are the odds of catching CV in the US during the next couple of months if the virus gets a foothold in several metro areas and serious quarantine measures are not taken? And I have no idea what the answer is to that question. And I do not think anyone else does.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

I see your point Paul and agree that perspective is better than panic. But there are at least three potential problems with using current verified US cases and the lightning analogy as a statistical predictor of potential future US infection rates.

First, the US has not had the ability to test and still lags behind other countries. So the number of reported may be of little value. For example, my state lacks the ability to test all comers. And it is still early days in tracing the two reported cases in NC.

Second, low estimates I have read are that each person infects 2-3 others. Lightning does not work that way. In other words, unlike viruses, the odds of lightning strikes do not increase with the number of people struck, lightning strike odds are constant, not exponentially increasing.

Third, assuming for the sake of argument that there are only 188 in the US at this point in time I get your point as to odds at to this point in time. But China also only had 188 cases at one point in time (and so did Italy). And the odds of getting the virus in Wuhan increased exponentially before some very draconian quarantine measures were undertaken.

So, my question is what are the odds of catching CV in the US during the next couple of months if the virus gets a foothold in several metro areas and serious quarantine measures are not taken? And I have no idea what the answer is to that question. And I do not think anyone else does.

Do you really think quarantine measures are going to do anything? Seriously?

I’m starting to think some of you guys know things the rest of us don’t.

By the way life is getting back to normal in most places in China. Do you believe there will be millions of infected people in China soon?

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

If you study this website you’ll see that the death rate coming from countries everyone seems to agree to trust is well less than 1%.

Not sure I am doing this correctly, but your link shows deaths at 3,802 and confirmed cases at 109,829. And I think that yields a mortality rate of 3.46 percent, not 1 percent.

How are you getting less than 1 percent?

[The Joker]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Not sure I am doing this correctly, but your link shows deaths at 3,802 and confirmed cases at 109,829. And I think that yields a mortality rate of 3.46 percent, not 1 percent.

How are you getting less than 1 percent?

Did hear on the news there will be a lot more that have it but go unreported. The young have mild symptoms or hardly any at all.

[77T]

Well I can share one thing affecting our area. Dobbins Air Reserve Base will be one of the sites for quarantining a portion of the Diamond Princess passengers.

Marietta is the city and that will likely worry some there. But we already have cases popping up in adjacent cities anyway including mine.

So what to do?

Make Girl Scout Trefoil Thin Mint S’mores, of course!




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[superdog]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well I can share one thing affecting our area. Dobbins Air Reserve Base will be one of the sites for quarantining a portion of the Diamond Princess passengers.

Marietta is the city and that will likely worry some there. But we already have cases popping up in adjacent cities anyway including mine.

So what to do?

Make Girl Scout Trefoil Thin Mint S’mores, of course!



Hmmmmmmmm. Now that looks stupendous.
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Hmmmmmmmn. Now that looks stupendous.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Do you really think quarantine measures are going to do anything? Seriously?

I’m starting to think some of you guys know things the rest of us don’t.

By the way life is getting back to normal in most places in China. Do you believe there will be millions of infected people in China soon?

Brett:

I understand you are passionate about this subject but please re-read my post.

I did not advocate for quarantine measures. And do not think opining on the same is productive.

Nor did I imply that I know anything that others do not.

If you disagree with the problems I raised out on the getting struck by lightning analogy for future US infection rates, please tell me how.

I hope we are all still at point where it is ok to question each other's statements.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well I can share one thing affecting our area. Dobbins Air Reserve Base will be one of the sites for quarantining a portion of the Diamond Princess passengers.

Marietta is the city and that will likely worry some there. But we already have cases popping up in adjacent cities anyway including mine.

So what to do?

Make Girl Scout Trefoil Thin Mint S’mores, of course!



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Do you have a calorie count on the S'mores, or is it like if you have to ask how much you can't afford it?

[Old Farmer]

Morning All, The hysteria around this virus is out of shape, here in Oz, panic buying of bulk toilet rolls has supermarket shelves empty, fair dinkum, Google it to see for yourself. Got me beat, this horrible virus does not cause the trots, go figure.

[77T]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Do you have a calorie count on the S'mores, or is it like if you have to ask how much you can't afford it?

Well that’s an easier question than risk analysis...

1 Trefoil = 32 cal.
1 Thin Mint = 40 cal.
6 Kraft Mini’s = 40 cal.

Per S’more = 112 cal.
x 7 on a plate = 784 cal.

Risk of smiles = 100%



These are an experiment.
Dual flavors: eat one with the Trefoil on the bottom you get one sensation on the tongue - turned upside down with the Thin Mint on tongue first and a whole different flavor.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by Old Farmer

Got me beat, this horrible virus does not cause the trots, go figure.

TP is cheaper than Kleenex to muzzle a cough or sneeze. Or to stuff a poor fitting surgical mask.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Not sure I am doing this correctly, but your link shows deaths at 3,802 and confirmed cases at 109,829. And I think that yields a mortality rate of 3.46 percent, not 1 percent.

How are you getting less than 1 percent?

That website is terrible for phones. I’m sorry I should have said that. It’s best to look at it on iPads or a computer.

Look at Japan, S Korea, Switzerland and most of Europe etc. numbers. Then you will see what I mean.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by 77T

I certainly agree with your final sentence, Paul...this is a time for cool heads. Just like when you had a bogey on your high 6.

By the theory of large numbers, your long division may be mathematically correct - but that isn’t the actual risk profile. It depends on many variables and some coincidences of our own.

Recommended reading for us all: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ssessment.html

Scroll down to some specifics under “Exposure Risk Categories”. I hasten to add this disclaimer - I am not calling anyone out - just sharing in the spirit of communication.


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Just for the record.... it was 11:00.... range 40 miles.

[TheVTCGuy]

Can we pause a moment?

Everyday on the Oxygen habit is a good one -

Here in ATL area it is a beautiful day - I hope anyone having a bad day or night can cross the threshold of optimism.

Yes, even those of us who are at risk, or concerned about this topic. At least spend a minute in quiet reflection on your excellent experiences on planet Earth thus far. Give those thoughts a chance to fill your amygdala and supplant any built-up negative emotions.




Paul, besides having an exceptional and highly regarded first name... you are obviously a very intelligent man. THIS is my whole point. Yes, it IS causing deaths and yes, we should all take precautions, especially the elderly, those that have traveled in Asia recently, etc. We should be paying extra diligence to washing hands, using sanitizer, and I always feel it is prudent to have emergency supplies on hand, in case of extreme weather or power outages etc. But THESE REPORTS THAT THE SKY IS FALLING are ridiculous. Mankind has endured far worse pandemics in it’s past, the Spanish Flu, the Swine flu, hell back even to the Black Plague. The over-blown reaction (IMHO exasterbated by the media) are causing unnecessary stress and even panic world-wide. In a few months, everything will be back to normal. If I’m wrong, and we are all doomed by June 1st, then you can all say “I told you so.”

[denmanproject]

$30 oil, wowza

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well that’s an easier question than risk analysis...

1 Trefoil = 32 cal.
1 Thin Mint = 40 cal.
6 Kraft Mini’s = 40 cal.

Per S’more = 112 cal.
x 7 on a plate = 784 cal.

Risk of smiles = 100%


These are an experiment.
Dual flavors: eat one with the Trefoil on the bottom you get one sensation on the tongue - turned upside down with the Thin Mint on tongue first and a whole different flavor.


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Ah. I can afford one, but could not trust myself not to eat the whole plate.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Thanks for this Paul, yes it's a beautiful day here. Gonna head outside and walk the dog. This crazy mutt:

What a cutie!!!!

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by superdog

What a cutie!!!!

Thank you!

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Thank you!

Yes. Extremely cute.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Yes. Extremely cute.

Thanks, man

[gmh1013]

Originally Posted by denmanproject

$30 oil, wowza

30? I saw an article it could hit 20 very soon.....under 1 buck a gallon.

[77T]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

30? I saw an article it could hit 20 very soon.....under 1 buck a gallon.

The OPEC+ deal fell through Friday but I heard they went into some sort of dark pool negotiations.

I expect they will prop up the price with a cut in production. But I have stayed away from the news over the weekend.

(Edit: Oops I just saw Australia’s benchmark stock index plunged the most since 2008. Gird yer loins buckos. I withdraw my comment about OPEC+)

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