the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by jhilly8982

Yeah, once it got serious they were very quick to quarantine 40 million people. I don't see how the US could execute or drive compliance on that scale.

They didn’t quarantine the whole country. Also the virus still get out right? That means it had to get out to the rest of their country. I don’t see how quarantine can stop this virus. That makes no sense to me at all. I can see how it would slow it down some but I don’t understand how it will stop it. Somebody here must be able to explain it. It must accomplish something otherwise these governments wouldn’t be doing it.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Patton250

They didn’t quarantine the whole country. Also the virus still get out right? That means it had to get out to the rest of their country. I don’t see how quarantine can stop this virus. That makes no sense to me at all. I can see how it would slow it down some but I don’t understand how it will stop it. Somebody here must be able to explain it. It must accomplish something otherwise these governments wouldn’t be doing it.

Agree.

How is it possible when it spreads the way it does. It just doesn’t add up. Not much of this does.

I know a lot of people are justifying why we should be in panic mode. And I can appreciate that. But this just doesn’t seem panic worthy.

If 20% or more were hospitalized then I get it. And I get that this is serious. I do.

But this appears maddness.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

You don’t say...


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Yes and I realize you don’t. It’s all good.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Exactly however that didn’t happen in China. It’s been going on there for 2 1/2 to 3 months. Perhaps longer......

I believe a totalitarian state has some more tools in their box then would be feasible in the US. Italy will be an interesting base case for both efficacy and the willingness of a population used to certain freedoms submitting itself to draconian measures.

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I believe a totalitarian state has some more tools in their box then would be feasible in the US. Italy will be an interesting base case for both efficacy and the willingness of a population used to certain freedoms submitting itself to draconian measures.

Yup, look at what’s happening at the Italian prisons, some of the consequences we wouldn’t imagine coming out of China...


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...virus-11953759


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[jhilly8982]

Originally Posted by Patton250

They didn’t quarantine the whole country. Also the virus still get out right? That means it had to get out to the rest of their country. I don’t see how quarantine can stop this virus. That makes no sense to me at all. I can see how it would slow it down some but I don’t understand how it will stop it. Somebody here must be able to explain it. It must accomplish something otherwise these governments wouldn’t be doing it.

Yeah, I'm not saying it worked, it could have slowed the spread, we'll likely never know what works and doesn't until it's over. We'll also likely never know the true numbers out of the epicenter.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I believe a totalitarian state has some more tools in their box then would be feasible in the US. Italy will be an interesting base case for both efficacy and the willingness of a population used to certain freedoms submitting itself to draconian measures.

I agree my friend. However as I said before I know they didn’t Quarantine the whole country. Yet they are hovering at around 85,000 cases and 3000 deaths. Now either those numbers have only paused temporarily and are going to significantly increase rapidly and soon, or they are lying to us and those numbers already have increased significantly. Those people who are panicking must believe the UK numbers you cited earlier. 65 million Americans infected and 650,000 deaths if 20% of the country get the virus. Bumblebee, you seem quite concerned about all of this (not criticism just observation) do you believe those are the numbers the United States will see over the course of the next year? If so why? I have not read anything from US government agencies saying anything like that. I’ve seen some YouTubets saying that as well as a few opinion pieces but nothing official.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Exactly however that didn’t happen in China. It’s been going on there for 2 1/2 to 3 months. Perhaps longer......

Well, the Chinese sealed off Hubei Province with methods that would never happen in the west (we hope at least). So I would think that’s probably why.

They essentially locked down 60,000,000 people to save over 1B. That’s some hard nosed $#*7, but it seems to be working.

Without a vaccine or natural immunity governments are going to institute quarantines of varying levels to stop the spread until summer hits and hopefully it gets toned down by heat, humidity and UV exposure.

So get ready to plop for awhile. Afterwards lots of businesses will change how they operate, so get ready to adapt to that too.

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I agree my friend. However as I said before I know they didn’t Quarantine the whole country. Yet they are hovering at around 85,000 cases and 3000 deaths. Now either those numbers have only paused temporarily and are going to significantly increase rapidly and soon, or they are lying to us and those numbers already have increased significantly. Those people who are panicking must believe the UK numbers you cited earlier. 65 million Americans infected and 650,000 deaths if 20% of the country get the virus. Bumblebee, you seem quite concerned about all of this (not criticism just observation) do you believe those are the numbers the United States will see over the course of the next year? If so why? I have not read anything from US government agencies saying anything like that. I’ve seen some YouTubets saying that as well as a few opinion pieces but nothing official.

I have no idea about the USa as I don’t know what their containment strategy is. I live in Asia but travel frequently between EU, USA and Asia. My colleagues in the US didn’t take it serious at all and asked me to travel to Korea when it was accelerating there, until about one or two weeks ago as it was too far for them to understand the seriousness of the situation. When it broke in Italy they started to take notice and it all went downhill from there.

So far no country has let it ‘run free’ to see what happens and how fast it spirals out of control. I hope it stays that way and hope governments around the world are able to contain the spread.

As the virus progresses to less prepared countries we’ll probably unfortunately see what happens if not properly contained.

I believe it should also be a push to the scientific community to focus on research for vaccines for novel corona virus such as this one and not stop/slow down research for a solution when the threat subsides.


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[chappuy1750]

RE: quarantines -- it would appear that the draconian containment measures that worked for SARS are the main tools in the toolbox before mitigation. This might work if only COVID19 virus weren't so contagious.

I take it that any containment helps set up mitigation?

From the Lacet:

Key messages
• There are many similarities between severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from the virus homology to the origin and transmission routes.
• SARS was effectively eradicated by implementing top-down draconic measures to halt all human-to-human transmission.
• Traditional public health measures used during SARS were successful and included active case detection, isolation of cases, contact tracing and quarantine of all contacts, social distancing, and community quarantine.
• Whether these measures will also be successful for COVID-19 will not depend on the similarities but the differences between SARS and COVID-19.
• Clear differences are emerging, such as in transmissibility and severity pyramids; COVID-19 has a higher transmissibility than SARS, and many more patients with COVID-19 rather than SARS have mild symptoms that contribute to spread because these patients are often missed and not isolated.
• Because of the extent of community spread, traditional public health measures might not be able to halt all human-to-human transmission, and we need to consider moving from containment to mitigation.

[rowdy3]

My la fitness will be closing for a few days.

[77T]

The swine flu spread in some parallels to what we see here with novel coronavirus. I’m paraphrasing a wiki but you can google the whole story.

….…
Initially H1N1 was called an outbreak, then widespread infection was recognized in the state of Veracruz, Mexico. Epidemiologists said the virus had been present for months before it was officially called an epidemic.

The Mexican government closed most of Mexico City's public and private facilities in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus. However, it spread globally, and clinics in some areas were overwhelmed by infected people.

In late April, WHO declared its first ever "public health emergency of international concern”. By June, WHO and CDC stopped counting cases and declared the outbreak a pandemic.

People freaked out as the maps turned pink to red to burgundy and later black, each color representing a worsening infection count.



The pandemic began to taper off in November 2009. By May 2010, the number of cases was in steep decline.

In August 2010, WHO announced the end of the H1N1 pandemic. According to WHO statistics, the virus had killed more than 18,000 people since it appeared in April 2009. However, the total mortality (including deaths unconfirmed or unreported) was considered unquestionably higher.

Critics at the time claimed WHO had exaggerated the danger, spread fear and confusion, and failed to provide actionable immediate information.
.....…

My point is our behavioral patterns seem to have remained constant...




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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

RE: quarantines -- it would appear that the draconian containment measures that worked for SARS are the main tools in the toolbox before mitigation. This might work if only COVID19 virus weren't so contagious.

I take it that any containment helps set up mitigation?

From the Lacet:

Key messages
• There are many similarities between severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from the virus homology to the origin and transmission routes.
• SARS was effectively eradicated by implementing top-down draconic measures to halt all human-to-human transmission.
• Traditional public health measures used during SARS were successful and included active case detection, isolation of cases, contact tracing and quarantine of all contacts, social distancing, and community quarantine.
• Whether these measures will also be successful for COVID-19 will not depend on the similarities but the differences between SARS and COVID-19.
• Clear differences are emerging, such as in transmissibility and severity pyramids; COVID-19 has a higher transmissibility than SARS, and many more patients with COVID-19 rather than SARS have mild symptoms that contribute to spread because these patients are often missed and not isolated.
• Because of the extent of community spread, traditional public health measures might not be able to halt all human-to-human transmission, and we need to consider moving from containment to mitigation.

Just recently some dude at the WHO said it was less transmittable than the flu....which the flu is more transmittable than SARS...

[michaelodonnell123]

Apple Co-founder Steve Wozniak believes he is the first U.S. case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nsz-JQVJAbw

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

I have no idea about the USa as I don’t know what their containment strategy is. I live in Asia but travel frequently between EU, USA and Asia. My colleagues in the US didn’t take it serious at all and asked me to travel to Korea when it was accelerating there, until about one or two weeks ago as it was too far for them to understand the seriousness of the situation. When it broke in Italy they started to take notice and it all went downhill from there.

So far no country has let it ‘run free’ to see what happens and how fast it spirals out of control. I hope it stays that way and hope governments around the world are able to contain the spread.

As the virus progresses to less prepared countries we’ll probably unfortunately see what happens if not properly contained.

I believe it should also be a push to the scientific community to focus on research for vaccines for novel corona virus such as this one and not stop/slow down research for a solution when the threat subsides.


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By the way,

- I lost a lot of money over the past few weeks in the stock markets and
- had to cancel a scheduled family cruise from Venice for next month.
- I don’t wear face masks as they don’t protect you they only protect others when you cough, which I don’t.
- my company doesn’t allow me to travel anywhere anymore and
- My kids’ school is shut down because one of the parents has had contact with a COVID-19 patient

I can’t wait for it to be over and for everything to go back to normal.

At the same time I don’t want to be responsible for potentially passing a deadly virus for which no symptoms for 14 days and no vaccine available, to my sick mother-in law or my kids.

So here we are...


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[GB-man]

I don’t get the assumption that people wouldn’t be able to figure out how to properly fit a basic n95 mask and thus they are of no value

How does it go from being listed right on the cdc website here in the states as approved to “no value don’t buy those”

[JasoninDenver]

The best, and simplest, explanation as to why we should all be taking this seriously and taking serious measures to limit contact....

https://www.9news.com/article/news/h...4-6fdc97fdc334

Again, it is not all about how many people it kills but how the impact can overwhelm a medical system and society. At that point, other things become as dangerous, if not more.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t get the assumption that people wouldn’t be able to figure out how to properly fit a basic n95 mask and thus they are of no value

How does it go from being listed right on the cdc website here in the states as approved to “no value don’t buy those”

Because we learn more about most likely methods of transmission.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t get the assumption that people wouldn’t be able to figure out how to properly fit a basic n95 mask and thus they are of no value

How does it go from being listed right on the cdc website here in the states as approved to “no value don’t buy those”

I don't get it either.

There is some pretty elaborate training with N95 to ensure that you know how to wear it...guess an OSHA requirement??? IDK...

The supply chain between health care supply and consumer retail is separate, so that keep stock available for healthcare narrative is kinda flimsy...

There have been posters in this thread who are in the medical field and they state they have no issue obtaining N95 masks through their channel..

Maybe it comes down to optics? The more masks out there, the worse it looks and spreads panic and the such...idk.

The messages are mixed and that always makes me suspicious of real intentions...

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Because we learn more about most likely methods of transmission.

I’m aware there are many ways to contaminate your hands and touch your eyes, nose, mouth etc but so many articles seem to focus on the concept that they won’t be fitted properly like it’s rocket science. Maybe I’m just an a hole but having used them countless times remodeling etc I find it funny. YouTube will tell you how to fit one in 2 mins.

[gtnator]

Originally Posted by Yoda_Eating_Pizza

I had read about that, too. The case of the woman in Osaka that was discharged in late January after recovering. She tested negative during the monitoring period following her discharge. However, in late February, she had symptoms again, and tested positive. It's unclear if she was infected again, but some experts believe that it may actually have been dormant when she recovered.

Sources:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XmbWS6hKjGg
https://globalnews.ca/news/6623287/c...le-infections/


edit:
I re-read what I wrote, and it was a little confusing. Just want to make it less confusing:
It's unclear whether the woman was reinfected through another exposure, or if she was never really rid of the virus because it was merely dormant; some experts believe it's the latter.

I don’t know which is worse, that if you get it you won’t have immunity upon recovery, or that once you recover it’s still dormant inside you only to reappear.


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[rowdy3]

2d case has been reported in my county.
https://www.news-journalonline.com/n...alth-officials

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’m aware there are many ways to contaminate your hands and touch your eyes, nose, mouth etc but so many articles seem to focus on the concept that they won’t be fitted properly like it’s rocket science. Maybe I’m just an a hole but having used them countless times remodeling etc I find it funny. YouTube will tell you how to fit one in 2 mins.

My understanding is that the virus thrives in humid human environments, so a mask creates that on your face/mouth, especially people who keep wearing the same mask for days is not doing them any good.

Whereas if you have a cold then the mask protects others around you when you sneeze/breathe.


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[rowdy3]

Looks like coachella has been postponed.

[77T]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

My understanding is that the virus thrives in humid human environments, so a mask creates that on your face/mouth, especially people who keep wearing the same mask for days is not doing them any good.

Whereas if you have a cold then the mask protects others around you when you sneeze/breathe.

I think you are right about the efficacy of masks, but not for the relative humidity (RH) aspect. This virus hasn’t been profiled yet for a long term conclusion regarding how it thrives in various temperatures or RH.

The last study was done in 2009-10 with the last pandemic of H1N1. Here’s some info below, but it is only indicative of viral habitation or inactivation.

At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH.

Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH.

Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C.

There was also evidence of an interaction between Temperature and Humidity. The results show that when high numbers of viruses are deposited, they may survive for days on surfaces at ambient temperatures and relative humidity typical of indoor environments.

So the indoor temp/humidity we inhabit won’t be harming viral colonies, but the outdoor environments might.


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[gmh1013]

patient zero

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...ero-in-seattle

[Ny325]

I pray for those who are infected, to be cured. And for a vaccine.

Hopefully the economical impact this is having, starts to level off.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by gtnator

I don’t know which is worse, that if you get it you won’t have immunity upon recovery, or that once you recover it’s still dormant inside you only to reappear.


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https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/chines...ecting-people/

It’s possible it was more than one strain too. L and S types.

[77T]

Good point that there can be more than one strain and later mutations.

Usually these happen to adapt in a virus to improve its ability to attach successfully.


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[Seibei]

Face masks are pointless because they do not provide adequate protection, they produce an environment that is favorable to the virus, they are rarely worn correctly, you should not be interacting with people anyway if you have flu like symptoms and you should not be interacting with people who have such symptoms. On the other hand wearing a face mask may make someone feel better, and as such they are fine.

Does anyone feel dismayed/disappointed by the slow response of officials in the USA? I don't think this is something that is unstoppable and should simply be allowed to run it's course. Many countries are taking effective measures such as testing and isolation. The lack of such measures in the USA has led to a situation where no one has any idea how many people are affected and spreading the disease. I hope the consequences of this slow response are not too severe.