the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Fat_ninja]

You guys see the massive jump tonight. They had to change their classification I guess

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

You guys see the massive jump tonight. They had to change their classification I guess

Just saw that. Getting bad.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Just saw that. Getting bad.

I think the numbers they putting out are lies. All models points to hundreds of thousands. Supposedly their testing capacity is limited hence the low numbers


And the other thing I don’t fully gather is how come the numbers are so low everywhere else ... that makes no sense ... must be the incubation and non symptoms (what ever that term is)

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I think the numbers they putting out are lies. All models points to hundreds of thousands. Supposedly their testing capacity is limited hence the low numbers


And the other thing I don’t fully gather is how come the numbers are so low everywhere else ... that makes no sense ... must be the incubation and non symptoms (what ever that term is)

I talked to someone yesterday who was teaching English in Wuhan province after the outbreak started, but before the Chinese authorities admitted it to anyone. She came back to the US unifected, and she was pretty horrified at how the Chinese government clampted down on it locally and would not tell the world about this outbreak until after it was kind of too late.

[Boothroyd]

Worldwide influenza deaths number around 700,000 annually.

A pandemic would be capable of infecting roughly 50% of the world's population when it has finally run its course. So if the mortality rate is 2%, that represents a rough total of 70M deaths worldwide. ( 3.75B infected x 2%). More than the total deaths suffered by military and civilians in WWII. 1% of the world's population dead.

Pandemics are a big deal. Remains to be seen if this becomes one. But just to put the cautionary measures into perspective. "Spanish" flu was the last one, 100 years ago.

I know the researchers at the Mayo Clinic in MN refer to this scenario as "when", not "if", and have been studying pandemic threats constantly for years, for obvious reasons.

[77T]

Before becoming alarmed at the dramatic jump, please note it was due to China’s health officials broadening the criteria used to confirm cases. So even old cases that had been classified earlier as “other” are now included as COVID19.

This includes the deaths. That’s why the jump occurred in the space of a day.

I’m not lessening the concern but I also think the maths forecasting being bandied around are way out of scale. The current high death rate is observed in areas where treatments and at-risk populations are more problematic.

The case numbers will continue to rise for the next few months but I do expect the observed fatality rate will drop with proper intervention.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[mactruck]

Getting ready.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by 77T

Before becoming alarmed at the dramatic jump, please note it was due to China’s health officials broadening the criteria used to confirm cases. So even old cases that had been classified earlier as “other” are now included as COVID19.

This includes the deaths. That’s why the jump occurred in the space of a day.

I’m not lessening the concern but I also think the maths forecasting being bandied around are way out of scale. The current high death rate is observed in areas where treatments and at-risk populations are more problematic.

The case numbers will continue to rise for the next few months but I do expect the observed fatality rate will drop with proper intervention.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Personally I belive they been lying and trying to control the message because it’s become political.


When the lie was so far out of sync you had to make up a reason to adjust the numbers... that’s when u know...

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Personally I belive they been lying and trying to control the message because it’s become political.


When the lie was so far out of sync you had to make up a reason to adjust the numbers... that’s when u know...

Our governments don’t lie to us.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Personally I belive they been lying and trying to control the message because it’s become political.


When the lie was so far out of sync you had to make up a reason to adjust the numbers... that’s when u know...

I would never question anyone’s beliefs. It is possible they had under-reported earlier numbers.

If they had lied before then there’d be no reason to believe they’d stop because they are the only ones counting. So not something I can comment upon.

I only brought a fact to the convo that the jump in numbers was not because of some sudden, actual number of deaths and new cases had occurred overnight.

All the major US news channels issued alarming breaking news alarms. They never attributed it to a classification issue until this morning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[HK852GMT]

A very good friend of mine went watch shopping earlier in an Asia-Pac city. He wandered into Rolex while on way to Omega. They offered him a white dial steel daytona. He asked me if it was worth getting and i told him to grab it. No purchase history.

Something, somewhere has broken.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by HK852GMT

A very good friend of mine went watch shopping earlier in an Asia-Pac city. He wandered into Rolex while on way to Omega. They offered him a white dial steel daytona. He asked me if it was worth getting and i told him to grab it. No purchase history.

Something, somewhere has broken.

New?
Used?
116520?
116500?
Price?

A dealer wanted to make a sale, not sure what has "broken"

[HK852GMT]

New. Rolex AD. 116500. MSRP.

I wouldn’t had made a song and dance over him walking into a a reseller and paying 100% markup.

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

And the other thing I don’t fully gather is how come the numbers are so low everywhere else ... that makes no sense ... must be the incubation and non symptoms (what ever that term is)

This point has been raised, and one theory postulated by virologists was that because the Chinese are more genetically homogenous than westerners, there is a possibility they are just more susceptible to this virus as a race. Westerners are more genetically diverse and this may provide some level of resistance or protection.

It's just a theory, but it passes the logic sniff test. Research and time will either prove or disprove it.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by HK852GMT

A very good friend of mine went watch shopping earlier in an Asia-Pac city. He wandered into Rolex while on way to Omega. They offered him a white dial steel daytona. He asked me if it was worth getting and i told him to grab it. No purchase history.

Something, somewhere has broken.

Which city was this?

[BigBlue1]

North Korea I imagine is loaded with the Corona and with their poor to non existent Health Care system, I would imagine their countries population would be wiped out. Scary stuff.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Our governments don’t lie to us.

So does that mean I should make light of the situation and be happy we are lied to about deaths and cases?

[statsman]

What to do if virus approaches your area?

1. Get flu shot (no need to compound issue).
2. Wash hands, don’t sneeze on people, adopt germophobia as a virtue.
3. Practice good health habits (you want to be strong as possible if infected).

[Cryten]

242 deaths in the Hubei province in one day. Nearly a quarter of all (admitted) deaths to date in one day alone.

Is it getting harder to keep the lid on this one?

[WatchLurv]

Mortality rate so low that even if you contract it, there's a high chance of surviving. A very high chance.

Not sure why everyone is worried. People who have died, have died from pneumonia. You won't just get that in a healthy body shutting down; you'll need to have something previously to trigger this and die from. Everyone calm down and watch the world crumble whilst some strong cold flu is going around.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by watchlurv

mortality rate so low that even if you contract it, there's a high chance of surviving. A very high chance.

Not sure why everyone is worried. People who have died, have died from pneumonia. You won't just get that in a healthy body shutting down; you'll need to have something previously to trigger this and die from. Everyone calm down and watch the world crumble whilst some strong cold flu is going around.

+1

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Mortality rate so low that even if you contract it, there's a high chance of surviving. A very high chance.

Not sure why everyone is worried. People who have died, have died from pneumonia. You won't just get that in a healthy body shutting down; you'll need to have something previously to trigger this and die from. Everyone calm down and watch the world crumble whilst some strong cold flu is going around.

Maybe the people that are worrying are not healthy.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Mortality rate so low that even if you contract it, there's a high chance of surviving. A very high chance.

Not sure why everyone is worried. People who have died, have died from pneumonia. You won't just get that in a healthy body shutting down; you'll need to have something previously to trigger this and die from. Everyone calm down and watch the world crumble whilst some strong cold flu is going around.

Seriously? What about the old or the very young? How do they factor into your incredibly blasé statement.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Mortality rate so low that even if you contract it, there's a high chance of surviving. A very high chance.

Not sure why everyone is worried. People who have died, have died from pneumonia. You won't just get that in a healthy body shutting down; you'll need to have something previously to trigger this and die from. Everyone calm down and watch the world crumble whilst some strong cold flu is going around.

Quit while you’re behind.

[Randomgary]

Its legitimately fascinating to see the human response to this.

I work in a business consultancy, the majority of our work is face to face delivery with teams, I'm suddenly feeling the need to present virtual delivery as alternate option.

People aren't saying it out loud but I believe many are changing habits and patterns due to the way this has/is being reported.

[frommer]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Mortality rate is lower but incubation period is longer. Also there is a 2-3 contagion risk per person. Not to mention the hospitals being overloaded. Problem is the size is not known.

My personal view is the case load will spike much more. The estimates are significantly above what the current reported cases sre

+1
Let's not forget China is a communist state. They silence real numbers and they wouldn't ring the bell if it wasn't tragic.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by frommer

+1
Let's not forget China is a communist state. They silence real numbers and they wouldn't ring the bell if it wasn't tragic.

This is very true.

I feel that the nature of the Chinese government is lost in the shuffle of making the worlds stuff cheaply and those profiting off of that are buying alotta luxury watches...so people don't really think of China as being much different governmentally, but it most certainly is...

[Knappo 1307]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...cid=spartanntp

[3 Putt]

Looking at the math differently: if one is affected by the virus, there are only two outcomes. You either get well or you die. When looking at this population sample, the mortality rate exceeds 15%. This will surely change moving forward. Either for the better or worse.

Living in China, I have seen first hand the issues the virus is causing. Not just the fear of dying, but it has reduced the quality of life in China tremendously with multiple quarantines by city and government insistence to isolate people to their homes to stop the spread.

I hope those that feel safe can show compassion for those dealing directly with the virus in China. It will continue to spread and living in medically advanced areas should be viewed as a blessing, not with indifference.

[Laszlo]

It’s truly awful what’s happening there and we can’t even understand the hardships happening regardless of data. I feel absolutely terrible for families there. Can’t even imagine it here. We are foolish.