the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Nuestros pensamientos y oraciones están contigo

Muchas gracias, John.

I hope you soon get your boy home safe.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Tommyk

I'm really disappointed in the amount of group think that exists. All I went to the store for was some beer and a salad. And I end up seeing mass chaos and empty shelves at my local trader Joe's.

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They’re wiped out here in SF as well. I actually didn’t eat lunch today because well, there was nothing to eat.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Makes perfect sense. China has it under control, the rest of the world does not.

I’m going to assume brand marketing and PR isn’t a domain expertise.

[Tommyk]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

They’re wiped out here in SF as well. I actually didn’t eat lunch today because well, there was nothing to eat.

That's incredible! So Sorry you didnt get to eat.
The irony was at this location all the produce, bread, meat and dairy was gone, But protein bars, bagged nuts and dried fruit were all available.

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

There are 8 confirmed cases in my hometown of San Diego (county wide). Out of a population of over two MILLION. So... roughly saying, the odds are around 250,000 to 1 of contracting this virus... even less of suffering long term health problems and even less of dying from it.

I don’t see what the panic is about.

Exponential progression. What we've observed in Italy and Spain is the number of people infected was doubling every three days. That means 8 cases become 8,000 in a month and 8 million in two months if no containment measures are taken at the beginning of the outbreak.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Tommyk

That's incredible! So Sorry you didnt get to eat.
The irony was at this location all the produce, bread, meat and dairy was gone, But protein bars, bagged nuts and dried fruit were all available.

I was quite puzzled by this as well. Perishables (short shelf life) were wiped out but the soft goods that you’d typically stock up on for long haul were left behind.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Exponential progression. What we've observed in Italy and Spain is the number of people infected was doubling every three days. That means 8 cases become 8,000 in a month and 8 million in two months if no containment measures are taken at the beginning of the outbreak.

Something is seriously amiss.

We can all hypothesize... IMO, this smells like terrorism.

I used to work in the motion picture industry and was a Hollywood screenwriter. We’d get hired by the government (time-to-time) to come up with every type of plot and scenario the pentagon couldn’t come up with.

There is something very wrong with what is happening and you’re definitely not being told the plot.

[Acanthurus]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Something is seriously amiss.

We can all hypothesize... IMO, this smells like terrorism.

I used to work in the motion picture industry and was a Hollywood screenwriter. We’d get hired by the government (time-to-time) to come up with every type of plot and scenario the pentagon couldn’t come up with.

There is something very wrong with what is happening and you’re definitely not being told the plot.

This is a bad joke right? Please try to refrain from crack pot conspiracy theories and stick to the facts.

There is no terrorism, just bad leadership. If left to it’s own devices this is what a virus does - spread!

Italy is sadly a precautionary tale for the rest of the world on how not to deal with this crisis. One that some governments have listened to, and some have chosen to ignore and act like nothing is happening until it is much too late.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Acanthurus

This is a bad joke right? Please try to refrain from crack pot conspiracy theories and stick to the facts.

There is no terrorism, just bad leadership. If left to it’s own devices this is what a virus does - spread!

Italy is sadly a precautionary tale for the rest of the world on how not to deal with this crisis. One that some governments have listened to, and some have chosen to ignore and act like nothing is happening until it is much too late.

You can believe anything you want. I only shared my opinion.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Something is seriously amiss.

We can all hypothesize... IMO, this smells like terrorism.

I used to work in the motion picture industry and was a Hollywood screenwriter. We’d get hired by the government (time-to-time) to come up with every type of plot and scenario the pentagon couldn’t come up with.

There is something very wrong with what is happening and you’re definitely not being told the plot.

I’ve witnessed a run on masks
I’ve witnessed stripped bare shelves.
I’ve witnessed school closures.
I’ve witnessed a stock market rout.
I’ve witnessed a neighboring business roll in a pallet of toilet paper.
I’ve witnessed arenas cancel events.
....and more.

What I have not witnessed...
1 sick person.

[Moggo]

I’ve had 2 friends that developed pneumonia and hacking coughs in early December, one was hospitalised for a month. No ‘cause’ reported.

Obviously way before ‘we’ knew about this virus, both are fit, healthy and very active. Certainly not pneumonia candidates.

One still has the hacking cough, over 12 weeks now, x-ray not showing anything.

Has it been circling longer than we are lead to believe I wonder, could be coincided though


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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I’ve witnessed a run on masks
I’ve witnessed stripped bare shelves.
I’ve witnessed school closures.
I’ve witnessed a stock market rout.
I’ve witnessed a neighboring business roll in a pallet of toilet paper.
I’ve witnessed arenas cancel events.
....and more.

What I have not witnessed...
1 sick person.

It’s not necessarily about making people sick but rather the magnitude of disruption.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I’ve had 2 friends that developed pneumonia and hacking coughs in early December, one was hospitalised for a month. No ‘cause’ reported.

Obviously way before ‘we’ knew about this virus, both are fit, healthy and very active. Certainly not pneumonia candidates.

One still has the hacking cough, over 12 weeks now, x-ray not showing anything.

Has it been circling longer than we are lead to believe I wonder, could be coincided though


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Apparently those infected and classified as mild (survivors) have a reduction >30% of lung damage and capacity (long-term.) BTW, NPR has a great article about what ‘mild’ classification means: 2-weeks of flu-like symptoms, the works.

Rumor is that this has been circulating longer than documented and why CCP is asking the US for proof and transparency that this didn’t come from US military. Apparently there was a military exercise called World Games or something along those lines in Asia in November.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Moggo

One still has the hacking cough, over 12 weeks now, x-ray not showing anything.
ji848]


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The cough should go away with the correct medication. I once got something from my doctor with codeine in it, within a few days it's gone.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

There are 8 confirmed cases in my hometown of San Diego (county wide). Out of a population of over two MILLION. So... roughly saying, the odds are around 250,000 to 1 of contracting this virus... even less of suffering long term health problems and even less of dying from it.

I don’t see what the panic is about.

If not contained, those people will infect others who will in turn affect others etc etc

Big difference is that this virus is very contagious - apparently can live outside the body for a week on surfaces

So, agreed you certainly should not panic - yet

One line of argument is to allow the younger more robust population to catch it, get well and develop immunity, whilst keeping the vulnerable isolated. However, that is a risky strategy.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Agree, you certainly should not panic.

But, if not contained, those people will infect others who will in turn affect others etc etc

Big difference is that this virus is very contagious - apparently can live outside the body for a week on surfaces

One line of argument is to allow the younger more robust population to catch it, get well and develop immunity, whilst keeping the vulnerable isolated. However, that is a risky strategy.

Isn’t the UK taking on this strategy along with the warmer weather hope in April? Delay and prolong before peak? Quite risky indeed especially considering SARS-1 didn’t apply to this logic including seasonal changes. Flu is a different mechanism.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

There are 8 confirmed cases in my hometown of San Diego (county wide). Out of a population of over two MILLION. So... roughly saying, the odds are around 250,000 to 1 of contracting this virus... even less of suffering long term health problems and even less of dying from it.

I don’t see what the panic is about.

How many tests have been done? Can't find what you don't look for.

Update: as of March 13, the entire state of CA has conducted 1,168 tests, with 5 deaths and 252 positive results.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Isn’t the UK taking on this strategy along with the warmer weather hope in April? Delay and prolong before peak? Quite risky indeed especially considering SARS-1 didn’t apply to this logic including seasonal changes. Flu is a different mechanism.

Indeed.

Personally, I find the idea of banning open air sports events, whilst allowing trains and planes to fly as usual bizarre

[Aquaholic_user]

Yeah New York is flooded with carona as well. Schools shutdown, events canceled or postponed till further notice. I'm afraid to go into 711.

SM-N960U

[daveathall]

My friend from America sent me this;

Catherine Welsh ER doc in nyc wrote this:

"I know I have been uncharacteristically silent about the coronavirus, but I’ve had enough at this point. The number of people who call this “media hysteria” or want to point out the mortality rates of the flu, cancer, or obesity...do you want to come work my shifts? Do you want to expose yourself to patients in respiratory failure day after day? When we run out of ICU beds and vents, do you want the responsibility of telling your mom, dad, aunts, uncles, friends, and family that I can’t intubate them because we just don’t have the resources? Do you want to tell the kids of 30 and 40 year old patients that their parent is going to die and we can’t do anything to stop it? Do you want to look at the parents of a 20 something year old and tell them their previously healthy son or daughter might not survive? Because these are REAL possibilities. This is
ACTUALLY what is happening around the world.

There have been multiple projections that this couldn’t infect 40-70% of the population. While it’s hard to extrapolate accurate predictions, that should concern you. It shouldn’t make you hysterical and run to doomsday prep, but it should make you want to be a part of the solution in decreasing the spread. Because kids aren’t dying I think people feel protected. Kids less than 10 aren’t dying. People in their 20s and 30s are in respiratory failure and ARE dying. These are not elderly people with lots of medical problems that have had the chance to live full lives. These are young and previously healthy people. Yes, the elderly are more likely. But the young and healthy ARE NOT IMMUNE.
Why is this such a big deal when we’ve already been seeing people with the flu? RESOURCES.

Over the past few months we have already spent many days at capacity, boarding patients including ICU patients in the ER. We don’t suddenly have a bigger ER, more floors to admit patients to, or more staff to take care of this influx. We have the same resources now with a second deadly virus. For estimated 80% getting sick this is like a cold. For the other 20% they’re either significantly sick, or eventually dead. Yes, cancer kills more. Yes, obesity related illness kills more. When taking care of my obese patients I don’t have to worry I’m going to “catch diabetes” or that suddenly my coronaries will be blocked. Their BMI can’t be transmitted to me through the air. Lung cancer isn’t contagious. I’m not worried about catching lung cancer when intubating these patients in respiratory failure. I’m vaccinated against the flu, and I can protect myself from flu patients with a simple surgical mask.

Patients coming into the ER want the best, EVERYTHING to be done, and for it to happen quickly. And more often than not, we deliver on that. We’re going to have a different reality if we don’t have rapid containment. Everything is going to be far from an option for most patients, and I’m not looking forward to the potential ethically crushing choices we might have to make.

Italy SHUT DOWN THEIR COUNTRY. Italy isn’t drastically impacting their economy, tourism, education, and way of life because they care about our presidential election. They are doing it because their citizens are dying. This isn’t a hoax. This isn’t just the cold. And I don’t care if more people by the numbers have already died of the flu. (Actually I very much care-GET VACCINATED). This is a big deal. Open your eyes and pay attention. Your immune system is not equipped with special corona fighting antibodies that just skipped over other countries. And more importantly, your healthcare system that already didn’t have enough doctors doesn’t suddenly have a surplus of doctors.

While you have the option (THAT YOU SHOULD TAKE) to stay at home and decrease the likelihood of you being a vector, when you do get sick, guess who is still working? Your nurses, doctors, pharmacists, hospital support staff, EMS, police...we don’t have the option to stay at home and protect ourselves and our families. The consensus among myself and other docs is and expectation of not if, but when, we get sick. People that have no lung problems are developing respiratory and multi system organ failure, and dying. We know that could be us. And we aren’t just being exposed at the airport or the grocery store or at a concert venue...we are being DIRECTLY exposed to the sickest patients. And without the resources to protect ourselves. The public has stock piled N95 masks to an extent our masks are LOCKED away and we have to have approval to use them. Because we WILL run out. The protective recommendations by the CDC recently became more relaxed...and let’s be totally transparent. This is not because the transmission has slowed or COVID is less virulent. It’s because we cannot meet a higher standard. We cannot provide our healthcare workers with better protection because we simply don’t have it. And I’m so fortunate to work in a resource rich hospital with what I consider exceptional leadership. I see people busting to try to keep us safe and informed, but under the context of a rapidly evolving situation with not enough supplies, people, and space to manage the consequences. I’ve also heard the theories that the doctors that died in China were given amphetamines and worked days at a time. That exhaustion weakened their immunity. As we go through cycles of quarantine, who do you think is going to be on back up? Who do you think will be covering those extra shifts and putting in more hours? While we won’t be pumped full of amphetamines, someone will have to be there.

So if you’re one of the people that keeps laughing at the “hysteria,” keeps comparing it to more deadly disease, thinks that somehow you’re special and it’s going to skip over you...you’re not special and your immune system isn’t unique. Take the current pandemic seriously. Stay home and don’t be a walking vector. Find a hobby, read some books, spring clean your house, make some new recipes, clear your DVR. You don’t need to panic and build a bunker, but don’t be an a...hole. Stop buying protective supplies that puts those of us on the front line at high risk. Stop buying all the toilet paper. Covid doesn’t cause massive diarrhea. Our water supply is not contaminated. You don’t need to stock pile bottled water. Don’t go to the ER “because you just wanted to be checked out” when you’re not actually sick. You risk exposing yourself and frankly, you’re pulling us away from the patients that actually need us. And realize that when this gets worse, we are working as hard as we can to do the best we possibly can. Be patient and kind to your first responders."

[Acanthurus]

Originally Posted by SMD

How many tests have been done? Can't find what you don't look for.

Update: as of March 13, the entire state of CA has conducted 1,168 tests, with 5 deaths and 252 positive results.

This is an excellent point. Testing in the US has been woefully inadequate. I think many will be in for nasty shock in the next few weeks when the extent of things becomes more obvious. The shear number of people randomly turning up positive in the US should be a warning that person to person transmission has likely been occurring for some time.

To put things in perspective the single hospital I work at has done more than 1,168 tests in the past 3 days here in Australia

[HL65]

Clearly my warning didn’t last very long. I will leave the thread open and continue to remove the posts and posters who don’t understand basic rules. Go political or inflammatory go bye bye again no questions asked. Not sure if I can make it an simpler than that for you.

[77T]

Originally Posted by directioneng

Some posts may be misinforming us?



An Australian doctor answering questions 10 minutes ago on ABC News stated that viable coronavirus has been found after being on a solid surface for up to 9 days depending on temperature and humidity?



That is a little different from ‘probably a couple of hours’?



Is this thread is causing more harm than good?

I think you are confusing the context. Fauci was replying to a question about paper and paper currency

The one you stated was about hard surfaces.

Hope that clears up any confusion for the readers here. My post was from a verbatim transcript so I wasn’t posting my own opinion. I do agree it can be confusing.

One thing in common with what you stated you heard and the transcript I posted is this:
No expert has definitive answers about coronavirus yet - they are stating what they know as virologists and ID docs.


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[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by daveathall

My friend from America sent me this;

Catherine Welsh ER doc in nyc wrote this:

"I know I have been uncharacteristically silent about the coronavirus, but I’ve had enough at this point. The number of people who call this “media hysteria” or want to point out the mortality rates of the flu, cancer, or obesity...do you want to come work my shifts? Do you want to expose yourself to patients in respiratory failure day after day? When we run out of ICU beds and vents, do you want the responsibility of telling your mom, dad, aunts, uncles, friends, and family that I can’t intubate them because we just don’t have the resources? Do you want to tell the kids of 30 and 40 year old patients that their parent is going to die and we can’t do anything to stop it? Do you want to look at the parents of a 20 something year old and tell them their previously healthy son or daughter might not survive? Because these are REAL possibilities. This is
ACTUALLY what is happening around the world.

There have been multiple projections that this couldn’t infect 40-70% of the population. While it’s hard to extrapolate accurate predictions, that should concern you. It shouldn’t make you hysterical and run to doomsday prep, but it should make you want to be a part of the solution in decreasing the spread. Because kids aren’t dying I think people feel protected. Kids less than 10 aren’t dying. People in their 20s and 30s are in respiratory failure and ARE dying. These are not elderly people with lots of medical problems that have had the chance to live full lives. These are young and previously healthy people. Yes, the elderly are more likely. But the young and healthy ARE NOT IMMUNE.
Why is this such a big deal when we’ve already been seeing people with the flu? RESOURCES.

Over the past few months we have already spent many days at capacity, boarding patients including ICU patients in the ER. We don’t suddenly have a bigger ER, more floors to admit patients to, or more staff to take care of this influx. We have the same resources now with a second deadly virus. For estimated 80% getting sick this is like a cold. For the other 20% they’re either significantly sick, or eventually dead. Yes, cancer kills more. Yes, obesity related illness kills more. When taking care of my obese patients I don’t have to worry I’m going to “catch diabetes” or that suddenly my coronaries will be blocked. Their BMI can’t be transmitted to me through the air. Lung cancer isn’t contagious. I’m not worried about catching lung cancer when intubating these patients in respiratory failure. I’m vaccinated against the flu, and I can protect myself from flu patients with a simple surgical mask.

Patients coming into the ER want the best, EVERYTHING to be done, and for it to happen quickly. And more often than not, we deliver on that. We’re going to have a different reality if we don’t have rapid containment. Everything is going to be far from an option for most patients, and I’m not looking forward to the potential ethically crushing choices we might have to make.

Italy SHUT DOWN THEIR COUNTRY. Italy isn’t drastically impacting their economy, tourism, education, and way of life because they care about our presidential election. They are doing it because their citizens are dying. This isn’t a hoax. This isn’t just the cold. And I don’t care if more people by the numbers have already died of the flu. (Actually I very much care-GET VACCINATED). This is a big deal. Open your eyes and pay attention. Your immune system is not equipped with special corona fighting antibodies that just skipped over other countries. And more importantly, your healthcare system that already didn’t have enough doctors doesn’t suddenly have a surplus of doctors.

While you have the option (THAT YOU SHOULD TAKE) to stay at home and decrease the likelihood of you being a vector, when you do get sick, guess who is still working? Your nurses, doctors, pharmacists, hospital support staff, EMS, police...we don’t have the option to stay at home and protect ourselves and our families. The consensus among myself and other docs is and expectation of not if, but when, we get sick. People that have no lung problems are developing respiratory and multi system organ failure, and dying. We know that could be us. And we aren’t just being exposed at the airport or the grocery store or at a concert venue...we are being DIRECTLY exposed to the sickest patients. And without the resources to protect ourselves. The public has stock piled N95 masks to an extent our masks are LOCKED away and we have to have approval to use them. Because we WILL run out. The protective recommendations by the CDC recently became more relaxed...and let’s be totally transparent. This is not because the transmission has slowed or COVID is less virulent. It’s because we cannot meet a higher standard. We cannot provide our healthcare workers with better protection because we simply don’t have it. And I’m so fortunate to work in a resource rich hospital with what I consider exceptional leadership. I see people busting to try to keep us safe and informed, but under the context of a rapidly evolving situation with not enough supplies, people, and space to manage the consequences. I’ve also heard the theories that the doctors that died in China were given amphetamines and worked days at a time. That exhaustion weakened their immunity. As we go through cycles of quarantine, who do you think is going to be on back up? Who do you think will be covering those extra shifts and putting in more hours? While we won’t be pumped full of amphetamines, someone will have to be there.

So if you’re one of the people that keeps laughing at the “hysteria,” keeps comparing it to more deadly disease, thinks that somehow you’re special and it’s going to skip over you...you’re not special and your immune system isn’t unique. Take the current pandemic seriously. Stay home and don’t be a walking vector. Find a hobby, read some books, spring clean your house, make some new recipes, clear your DVR. You don’t need to panic and build a bunker, but don’t be an a...hole. Stop buying protective supplies that puts those of us on the front line at high risk. Stop buying all the toilet paper. Covid doesn’t cause massive diarrhea. Our water supply is not contaminated. You don’t need to stock pile bottled water. Don’t go to the ER “because you just wanted to be checked out” when you’re not actually sick. You risk exposing yourself and frankly, you’re pulling us away from the patients that actually need us. And realize that when this gets worse, we are working as hard as we can to do the best we possibly can. Be patient and kind to your first responders."

Thanks for this.

Summs up pretty well the situation we're also having in Spain at the moment.

There's a campaing from health professionals asking people to stay home in order to help contain the spread. By staying home they mean if you're healthy don't go out unless absolutely necessary (shopping for food or medicine). If you're sick call your national emergency number and wait for instructions on how to proceed. Hospitals are overwhlemed and this is only the beginning, we have 4265 cases in Spain as I write this in a country of 47 million people and it's already chaos in public funded hospitals.

Stay safe people and help everyone else stay safe.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Thanks for this.

Summs up pretty well the situation we're also having in Spain at the moment.

There's a campaing from health professionals asking people to stay home in order to help contain the spread. By staying home they mean if you're healthy don't go out unless absolutely necessary (shopping for food or medicine). If you're sick call your national emergency number and wait for instructions on how to proceed. Hospitals are overwhlemed and this is only the beginning, we have 4265 cases in Spain as I write this in a country of 47 million people and it's already chaos in public funded hospitals.

I think that, that article could be any country in the world, by changing a couple of names and places, it could very well be my country, The UK.

[Kowaco]

Coronavirus will bankrupt more people than it kills — and that's the real global emergency


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[mountainjogger]

Morning all.

Glad we still have this thread.

Had a heath scare last year. Turned out to be an exotic rare explanation for what odds said was going to be a death sentence.

So, along with the normal things any normal person does, I went ahead and picked up the Tudor I had ordered. And spent time on this thread. Not a bunch of time, but enough to have a break from the stress. And along with family and friends it helped to get through the stress.

So, with the CV situation, I find myself back here again. Getting a break from the craziness life always seems to throw at us.

Best forum in the world. Best mods in the world. And of course, best members in the world.

Thanks.

[nda]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Coronavirus will bankrupt more people than it kills — and that's the real global emergency

It's a major issue. Currently governments are making funds available to various degrees - but airlines, hotels, restaurants, retailers will go out of business around the world. There will need to be a commercial re-set of some magnitude and, as you say, many will bankrupted.

Quite how many deaths there will be or how many lives will have been saved is not quantifiable.

New territory for everyone.

[superdog]

I looked up that doctors name in NYC. I couldn’t find anything. But I admit I’m not good at things like that.

I’m, like many of us, paying close attention to all of this.

So far, I’m just not seeing the things that note above is saying. I too have cancelled all travel and all parties and anything unnecessary. I do think precaution is super important. I think reducing the spread by social distancing is just common sense. I’m 100% on board with all of that.

Different news channels appear to be presenting different levels of concern. I haven’t seen anything that represents the epic failures being mentioned in the essay above.

I’ve seen some very sick people. I’ve also seen a lot of first hand folks that state it’s relatively mild.

One of my closest pals is a nurse. He’s schooled me that it’s not panic. It’s super serious. And taking precaution is absolutely necessary. But he’s also not panicking. He preparing.

I do see the death toll and it’s sobering and scary. And of course thinking about this coupled with all the other medical emergencies creates a challenge for an already stressed system.

Watching a doctor now and he’s saying he thinks it’ll be over in a few weeks. I hope he’s right. Hopefully the precautions people are taking right now will help the situation.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by superdog

I looked up that doctors name in NYC. I couldn’t find anything. But I admit I’m not good at things like that.

I must admit, I'm not either Seth, I found this but dont know the accuracy of the article or the publication.

https://relentlessschoolnurse.com/20...VZeEXyTkhDPqU8