the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Coronavirus: California estimates 25.5 million residents will get it over 8 weeks

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coro...pyToPasteboard

Like I’ve been saying, we’re all going to get it, at least 60% of us.


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Even conservatively that’s 750000 deaths


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Coronavirus: California estimates 25.5 million residents will get it over 8 weeks

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coro...pyToPasteboard

Like I’ve been saying, we’re all going to get it, at least 60% of us.


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Then obviously China and South Korea are lying.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Coronavirus: California estimates 25.5 million residents will get it over 8 weeks

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coro...pyToPasteboard

Like I’ve been saying, we’re all going to get it, at least 60% of us.


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IMO this is a scare tactic, aimed at getting people to take this seriously, which they should be. But I think these numbers are grossly overestimated for the intended effect.


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[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Then obviously China and South Korea are lying.

I suspect the 3,405 people who died in Italy are telling the truth. This tendency to try to debate for the sake of winning an argument seems disrespectful to the subject matter...human lives.

So Patton250 if you are "correct" and only 10 million Californians are infected will you be happy based on vindication or saddened by the lives effected?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I suspect the 3,405 people who died in Italy are telling the truth. This tendency to try to debate for the sake of winning an argument seems disrespectful to the subject matter...human lives.

So Patton250 if you are "correct" and only 10 million Californians are infected will you be happy based on vindication or saddened by the lives effected?

I know you’re upset but there is know need to bring emotions into this. I’m serious. Either you believe South Korea and China or you don’t.

Please stay civil.

[cdmorenot]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Out of curiosity was this the Imperial College response team report that was published yesterday?

Posting the link below for anyone’s benefit that missed this earlier:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf


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Thank you.


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[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Coronavirus: California estimates 25.5 million residents will get it over 8 weeks

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coro...pyToPasteboard

Like I’ve been saying, we’re all going to get it, at least 60% of us.

The California Governor's office has confirmed this 25 mil number does not take into account any of the mitigation/suppression steps currently being put into place.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I know you’re upset but there is know need to bring emotions into this. I’m serious. Either you believe South Korea and China or you don’t.

Please stay civil.

I was being civil and earnest in my question. You have been more than willing to share a view.

What number of people do you think will die in the US from Coronavirus and how many do you expect to be infected? Rather than shoot down others numbers what is your anticipated outcome?

I assume given how dismissive of the entire "media event" as you have described it you expect the numbers to be extremely small or you are expressing a dismissive tone to human suffering. So what are your numbers?

Civil discourse requires accountability for ones words... so just want to understand your specific prediction not just your dissent from others. I ask with complete respect for your right to have that opinion I just want to know it in its entirety

[Bryant Park]

Lastly we are talking about people dying and suffering I don't think emotion can or should be left out of it.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I was being civil and earnest in my question. You have been more than willing to share a view.

What number of people do you think will die in the US from Coronavirus and how many do you expect to be infected? Rather than shoot down others numbers what is your anticipated outcome?

I assume given how dismissive of the entire "media event" as you have described it you expect the numbers to be extremely small or you are expressing a dismissive tone to human suffering. So what are your numbers?

Civil discourse requires accountability for ones words... so just want to understand your specific prediction not just your dissent from others. I ask with complete respect for your right to have that opinion I just want to know it in its entirety

By me not panicking and or not reacting in a way acceptable to you doesn’t make me “dismissive of the entire "media event" as you have described it you expect the numbers to be extremely small or you are expressing a dismissive tone to human suffering.”

Bryant take it easy. Have a good night and sleep as best you can.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Patton250

By me not panicking and or not reacting in a way acceptable to you doesn’t make me “dismissive of the entire "media event" as you have described it you expect the numbers to be extremely small or you are expressing a dismissive tone to human suffering.”

Bryant take it easy. Have a good night and sleep as best you can.

I missed your number? What infection rate is panic worthy? Are the people of Italy appropriately panicked or overreacting in your view?

Please help me understand the expectations that underly your dispassionate approach. Perhaps you can help ease my concern. In your community would infection rates of 20% inspire you to panic? Again please share your expectation so I can gauge if we agree/disagree about the quantitative impact of the virus or the qualitative suffering it causes.

I personally fear and anticipate a national infection rate of 20% (with heavier concentration in some areas). I base this on what those trained to make these predictions have told me to prepare for. Based on 325 million Americans that will result in about 650,000 deaths and 2.6mm requiring significant hospitalization. I pray I am wrong but based on those numbers I personally don't perceive panic but justified attempts to avoid over running a taxed health care system.

[gtnator]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Then obviously China and South Korea are lying.

This pandemic won’t stop until 60% of us are infected and/or a vaccine is made.

Based on the R naught value of Coronavirus, 60% will need to get infected then recover to create herd immunity.

The California estimate of 53% is in the ballpark, probably on the lower end of what will happen.


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[12Relojes]

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[BigAppleBill]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

In NYC and the surrounding areas this is no longer a scare, a theoretical discussion, or a hassle. It is now a full blown life and death health crisis.

A 21 year old young man we know well from NJ is hospitalized, 2 NYC colleagues 1 confirmed the other waiting test results (2 others in their building but different employer confirmed). A friend in UK whose mom, dad and brother all have it (dad 82 in bad shape), former colleagues 46 year old husband in a London hospital waiting "official" notice but was told you wouldn't have been tested unless you have it.

All in the last 36 hours. I understand the desire to debate aspects of this pandemic but certain aspects are beyond debate. Families are and will be suffering and losing members.

This is not political, pro or anti media, or about winning an argument. We are now at a tipping point where this discussion should avoid the minimizing of this tragedy because even the few victims I know personally (and the others across the world) are unfortunately too many, and there are regrettably many more to come.

Have a good night and be safe!

+1

I’ve been reluctant to weigh in on this. I’ve actually been staying away from TRF lately because of the irreverent way this topic is sometimes being discussed. Perhaps some people in somewhat safer, more spread out areas of the country may be experiencing this differently. Here in NYC the sh*t is real. Mike Tyson famously said “everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the mouth.” Several days ago my kid came down with a fever and had some other symptoms. Thankfully it passed in 24hrs and it was likely a stomach virus. But living through those 24hrs, consulting with doctors on the phone, and considering the implications that it was Covid-19 shook me. Hard. We haven’t left home since. We are all fine and symptom free. But my heart goes out to those who have family members going through this nightmare. Facing the uncertainty of not knowing if it will pass like a bad cold or if you will end up in a crowded hospital is a stark hit of reality. For those casually throwing around unreliable (at best) statistical information or personal theories, please bear in mind that those statistics are people who are loved and mourned by their families. If you’ve decided this isn’t a danger to you, that’s your prerogative. I think you’re wrong. Either way I hope we can all respect the fact that people here in our country and around the world are (and will be) experiencing the terror of seeing family members dying. I’m very grateful for the courageous medical teams who are right now working long shifts to the point of exhaustion, risking their own exposure and facing dwindling supplies and equipment. I hope all of you and your families stay well and stay safe!

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

+1

I’ve been reluctant to weigh in on this. I’ve actually been staying away from TRF lately because of the irreverent way this topic is sometimes being discussed. Perhaps some people in somewhat safer, more spread out areas of the country may be experiencing this differently. Here in NYC the sh*t is real. Mike Tyson famously said “everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the mouth.” Several days ago my kid came down with a fever and had some other symptoms. Thankfully it passed in 24hrs and it was likely a stomach virus. But living through those 24hrs, consulting with doctors on the phone, and considering the implications that it was Covid-19 shook me. Hard. We haven’t left home since. We are all fine and symptom free. But my heart goes out to those who have family members going through this nightmare. Facing the uncertainty of not knowing if it will pass like a bad cold or if you will end up in a crowded hospital is a stark hit of reality. For those casually throwing around unreliable (at best) statistical information or personal theories, please bear in mind that those statistics are people who are loved and mourned by their families. If you’ve decided this isn’t a danger to you, that’s your prerogative. I think you’re wrong. Either way I hope we can all respect the fact that people here in our country and around the world are (and will be) experiencing the terror of seeing family members dying. I’m very grateful for the courageous medical teams who are right now working long shifts to the point of exhaustion, risking their own exposure and facing dwindling supplies and equipment. I hope all of you and your families stay well and stay safe!

Bill are you in the city? You know it’s real when boomer and gio are dojng the show from home! I’m down by six flags. About 10 minutes from the hospital that family that has all been infected has been passing at

steve

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

The California Governor's office has confirmed this 25 mil number does not take into account any of the mitigation/suppression steps currently being put into place.

Where are you getting at information?


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[BigAppleBill]

Originally Posted by dimag333

Bill are you in the city? You know it’s real when boomer and gio are dojng the show from home! I’m down by six flags. About 10 minutes from the hospital that family that has all been infected has been passing at

steve

Yep. In the city. I hope you and yours are able to stay inside and stay safe.

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Where are you getting at information?


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Haven't seen it an article online yet but I watched his live press conference a few hours ago. Can confirm that he did say the 25M stat is the projection without taking into account mitigation/suppression efforts. Big focus during his remarks on working together to make sure that's not our future and to beat that projection by following the measures that are being taken.

[77T]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Where are you getting at information?


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It’s all over the news after the governor’s edict. Here’s one source:

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/loc...weeks/2289281/


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[dimag333]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

Yep. In the city. I hope you and yours are able to stay inside and stay safe.

Yeah no work for me until June now and wife can work from home indefinitely.

I personally feel like our area has been doing an incredible job so far

steve

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Haven't seen it an article online yet but I watched his live press conference a few hours ago. Can confirm that he did say the 25M stat is the projection without taking into account mitigation/suppression efforts. Big focus during his remarks on working together to make sure that's not our future and to beat that projection by following the measures that are being taken.

Thanks for clarifying. I believe the big headlines are intended to scare people a bit, but I think people need to be scared a bit, so they take it seriously. I think we’d all be better off slowing this down while it’s still sort of early before the numbers grow exponentially.


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[77T]

I also found Gov. Newsome’s order expressed via the California Health Dept.

Mostly for the benefit of our California members who hadn’t seen it yet.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-exc...sential-needs/


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[Bryant Park]

.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by 77T

I also found Gov. Newsome’s order expressed via the California Health Dept.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-exc...sential-needs/


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A place I buy my cutlery from just posted he can’t even go to his shop for online orders, he’s the only employee

steve

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

.

Do you live in New York it New Jersey? The cases are going to go through the roof! The amount of testing that has just become available is to say the least a major factor here.

Walk the streets, I don’t see many out, it’s locked down here.

steve

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by fmc000

This is totally false. Both statements are at least uninformed. We're not in the fifties of the last century, you know...

Originally Posted by superdog

In Italy you have multiple generations living together.

And a less than desirable healthcare system.

You're kidding right. That's not only actually antagonistic towards a country (assume you've looked that up by now) while in the depths their struggle, but also factually incorrect if you cared to look. And haven't walked that back either. Self awareness isn't exactly present in spades here.

Originally Posted by daveathall

I didn't know about the NYT's my friend, we have papers like that over here as well. I didn't put the link as a counter of anything you said. I must admit, I don't really have an opinion about the options.

That's not factual about the NYT. If you want to know about the mindset of the person who told you that, ask him about the news sources he values. See if you even receive an answer. That will give you the context for his statement. But don't take it at face value without that context lest you be misled

Originally Posted by Seibei

Please don't paint an unnecessarily gloomy picture. The virus is most severe for people who are past the age when they do anything for the economy. It is relatively rare for young healthy people to perish from this, so I have no worries about there being people left to vitalize the economy.

So it's fine then? I wonder if you would be saying the same thing if you were in that latter group. How about looking beyond economic factors? It's humans we're dealing with here, it's that kind of bean counter thinking that leads to not fixing defects in vehicles because it will cost less to defend the lawsuits. Very simple to make calls like that when you remove the human element but utterly misdirected. There are people, including members here, in that first group whose value is far greater than what they do for the economy. The suggestion that human life is expendable has no place in the conversation.

Originally Posted by RWH

In this thread its sadly revealing that some members here only care about their wallets more than the lives of others. It's like hedge fund managers trying to talk up their portfolio, they only have their own agenda and best interest in mind trying to influence others to think the same way.

The previous generations built and established what we are enjoying today. My parents never had full stomachs when they were kids but they made sure that I had a life that they couldn't ever have. Posts like that are sickening to see. They're old and useless let them die as long as our wallets are nice and fat it doesn't matter

Originally Posted by Patton250

An incredibly offensive statement and most importantly assumption. However if an unsubstantiated lecture makes you feel better or superior have at it. It’s not helpful and doesn’t add anything here.

Another twilight zone comment...don't know how what he's pointing out is possibly "offensive". I'm going to start gifting dictionaries Truly surprised that you don't think what he's referring to is what's actually offensive.

Hard to believe some of the things I'm seeing here. Including the inconsistencies displayed by the loudest voices, usually with the least to say. Talk about not helpful. Somehow it's the same guys who are oversensitive that are constantly going against the grain and actually offending people. It's one thing to be what you are, it's another thing to pretend you're not. I can't take many of you guys seriously anymore, too much doesn't add up.

Originally Posted by Jona

Thank you for letting me know that I, as a 70 year old retiree, contribute nothing to the economy. I shall, therefore, consider myself worthless and expendable, and shall neither seek nor accept any medical treatment for any future illness from any source, viral or otherwise.

It sounds so ridiculous I can't take it seriously. As shocked as you are with the callousness of the comments you are referring to. A few of the members here have tunnel and/or selective vision.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

.

That is a good graphic representation day by day.

One thing to take into account is how testing has ramped up to discover how many are actually infected. I wish they had plotted a line showing the testing numbers.

I believe those 3000 people had been infected over the past 2 weeks or so, but the reports are just now flooding in as test results are processed and returned from the labs.


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[dimag333]

Originally Posted by 77T

That is a good graphic representation day by day.

One thing to take into account is how testing has ramped up to discover how many are actually infected. I wish they had plotted a line showing the testing numbers.

I believe those 3000 people had been infected over the past 2 weeks or so, but the reports are just now flooding in as test results are processed and returned from the labs.


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A graph with all info including recovered, tested amount, deaths ect would be best

I agree with yiu

One that shows relativity

steve

[BBL]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...postcount=2935

John , and the nagging pit in my stomach is, until we ramp up on testing, that that illustrated graph only shows the 'tested' ones.


Today's email from my health care provider stated that even if I have symptoms, (I am in a risk category, albeit somewhat low) to stay home. Testing is not offered... at the moment, because they probably don't have the kit inventory. (Biggest Trauma hospital connected by number of clinics in my area.)


To wit:
"During this unprecedented time, we want to share with you what we are doing to keep our patients and community safe. We also want to give you the information you need to keep your friends and neighbors healthy.

_ _ _ _ Health has strong protocols in place to stop the spread of COVID-19 and we are following all guidelines set forth by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Weeks ago, we started limiting access to our facility and began screening all patients and visitors.

It’s important to remember that most people with COVID-19 will not need medical attention. You do not need to come to the ER if you are experiencing only mild symptoms. Most patients with mild symptoms who arrive at the ER are being told to return home and self-monitor with self-isolation (without getting a test). If you are worried but don’t have symptoms, please stay home, as we will not be testing everyone who asks.

If you are experiencing mild symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat or congestion consistent with COVID-19, follow the steps below to help prevent the disease from spreading.

Stay home: People who are mildly ill with COVID-19 are able to isolate at home during their illness.
Avoid public areas: Do not go to work, school, or public areas.
Avoid public transportation: Avoid using public transportation, ride-sharing or taxis.
Cover: Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
Dispose: Throw used tissues in a lined trash can.
Wash hands: Consistently wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.
Do not share: You should not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels or bedding with other people or pets in your home.

Call 911 if you have a medical emergency.

We value each and every one of our patients and are here every step of the way to ensure your health and safety.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by chappuy1750

I fear there is a turn toward the political which I would be grateful if we could avoid. People are wonderful, smart, generous and kind, resourceful and supportive when others are down. Do people make mistakes and show poor judgement and say and do silly things we learn from? Guilty.

There are some members here that constantly and covertly push their political agenda. At least be straight up about it if you're that driven to do it.

Originally Posted by Seibei

Let's look at the bright side. Carbon dioxide emissions are certainly going down and this is going to make it more likely that climate change will be mitigated. It could perhaps wake the world up to the fact that we do not really need to travel and consume as much as we have been doing. This is thankfully not all doom and gloom.

I can appreciate looking for the bright side.

Originally Posted by mgsooner

1. Testing, testing, testing - early identification of cases and quarantine. Develop new ways of contact tracing
2. Infrastructure - dramatically ramp up production of all necessary PPE & ventilators, build temporary medical facilities, convert existing structures into medical facilities
3. Innovate - development of an antiviral treatment

I agreed, the medical gaps are the big ones. Lack of testing is a big link in the chain that's missing, and that appears to be one of the keys to South Korea's relative success in fighting this.