Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by ThatOtherGuy7

Spoke to a few ppl at an AD. One salesman agreed and said that secondary market dropping very fast while another salesman said their demand is still very high. Those two might not be related but I feel like they are: secondary market dropping should be less demand from flippers and thus more availability for people that truly want watches.

I’m impatiently waiting for a Daytona panda, but would hate to see a price increase before then. At $14,550+tax, it’s a $16K watch. If it goes up another $1-1.5K, it’ll simply become more difficult to justify almost $18K for a time piece. This is just me as I have not spent more than $5K on a watch until I got into the Rolex game getting a Sub for my dad few years ago.

Can’t see AD wait lists disappearing until grey prices drop below AD list price

[rolex--]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Can’t see AD wait lists disappearing until grey prices drop below AD list price

Many pieces are already at MSRP or under if someone tries to sell to a gray dealer. Its already happening.

This means as a consumer if you buy at MSRP + tax and try to flip your losing money for sure.

Many models arent even worth to flip now.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by rolex--

Many pieces are already at MSRP or under if someone tries to sell to a gray dealer. Its already happening.

This means as a consumer if you buy at MSRP + tax and try to flip your losing money for sure.

Many models arent even worth to flip now.

This must be very scary for stock holders ("investors") because it is no more a sudden and brutal drop due to an external factor (war, etc) but now a constant slow fall. The curve slope also slices flippers' margin daily without foreseeable stabilization/support.

Consensus about the worse case scenario imagined today is to go back to pre-covid.

But is it really?

People know that covid years were exceptional (statistical anomaly?) but forget that pre-covid years were very good years (For Rolex, PP, etc). The watch world had crises with less negative impacting factors than todays. (eg factors of the 2015/2016 crisis were limited but had big impacts.)

What if the excesses of the covid years and its consequences send the market in bigger trouble?

It is not hard to imagine too many "investors" dumping their watches and not enough demand is met (China out, inflation/stagflation/recession in the Western world, etc). Demand for luxury items loosing value when leaving the shop would no more have the favors of the flippers.
Of course, manufacture would massively buy back and/or intervein on the secondary market to mitigate the situation. Instagram would still feed the beast. But is it enough support?

Bets are opened...

[dmash]

Originally Posted by messikens

Oh no - sale price of 51k is off and it's back to 57k...

I wonder for how much longer
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=879033

h

This guy just posted on AP thread and is getting trolled after he tried to call out the market.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...1#post12475670

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by rolex--

Many pieces are already at MSRP or under if someone tries to sell to a gray dealer. Its already happening.

This means as a consumer if you buy at MSRP + tax and try to flip your losing money for sure.

Many models arent even worth to flip now.

As a first stage, to get rid of flippers - I agree

But whilst buying from ADs is cheaper than greys, then ADs will be the first choice for owners. However, once greys are selling cheaper than ADs, then they will drive trade away from ADs.

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by dmash

This guy just posted on AP thread and is getting trolled after he tried to call out the market.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...1#post12475670

Damn lol.
Good work on that one.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

As a first stage, to get rid of flippers - I agree

But whilst buying from ADs is cheaper than greys, then ADs will be the first choice for owners. However, once greys are selling cheaper than ADs, then they will drive trade away from ADs.

Not necessarly. For gifts, celebration and collecting I prefer to pay a little more but have my name on the papers and original invoice. :)

Also, when I go to my ADs in Geneva, I often see tourists frustrated because they cannot buy a nice souvenir watch during their trip.

Today, only VVIP can do it.

[Rolexatlast]

Agreed. Personally, I would always buy from an AD, but others may go for the cheapest option.

At the moment, the AD is the cheapest option, so is for first choice for (nearly) everyone, so wait lists will remain until greys are a cheaper alternative

Unless the recession is really bad, and demand completely disappears

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Agreed. Personally, I would always buy from an AD, but others may go for the cheapest option.

At the moment, the AD is the cheapest option, so is for first choice for (nearly) everyone, so wait lists will remain until greys are a cheaper alternative

Unless the recession is really bad, and demand completely disappears

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Personally, I would always buy from an AD, but others may go for the cheapest option.

For the most part +1 unless the delta is absolutely massive.

[rolex--]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Agreed. Personally, I would always buy from an AD, but others may go for the cheapest option.

At the moment, the AD is the cheapest option, so is for first choice for (nearly) everyone, so wait lists will remain until greys are a cheaper alternative

Unless the recession is really bad, and demand completely disappears

Dont worry. Just wait until next year. Prices for most Rolex will become under MSRP.

I personally feel ALL pieces will become MSRP or under. Except the Daytona which was always trading only slight above MSRP for many decades. Way way way way before any hype started. For the rest? Its back to MSRP or below.

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by rolex--

Dont worry. Just wait until next year. Prices for most Rolex will become under MSRP.

I personally feel ALL pieces will become MSRP or under. Except the Daytona which was always trading only slight above MSRP for many decades. Way way way way before any hype started. For the rest? Its back to MSRP or below.

Yep. And when the buying slows, Rolex will still pump out a million watches a year.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by rolex--

Dont worry. Just wait until next year. Prices for most Rolex will become under MSRP.

I personally feel ALL pieces will become MSRP or under. Except the Daytona which was always trading only slight above MSRP for many decades. Way way way way before any hype started. For the rest? Its back to MSRP or below.

Even sought after DD40 dials like olive and green lacquer?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Even sought after DD40 dials like olive and green lacquer?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I guess it will be near or below MSRP in time to come. My guess is all PM pieces including Daytonas will go to MSRP or lower.

SS Panda and Pepsi probably will be the only ones trading above msrp.
Just my wild guess.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Even sought after DD40 dials like olive and green lacquer?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The dd rg olive dial last time i saw it was sold for 49k. its getting there. remember 9 months ago it was selling for 80-90k.
Imagine able to get one at ad for 44k. Now flippin it probaly will make you 1-2k profit. Not worth really

[honuswagner13]

A new unworn Patek 5990 rose gold blue dial watch is still sitting at $278k. Yes this is still a lot of money, but these were over $750k at the peak. Crazy!!

[Crown & Shield]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

A new unworn Patek 5990 rose gold blue dial watch is still sitting at $278k. Yes this is still a lot of money, but these were over $750k at the peak. Crazy!!

And also how many -or few- of those are there around as opposed to any "rare" Rolex?

[rolex--]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Even sought after DD40 dials like olive and green lacquer?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Absolutely. These were never appreciated. Only hype pumped the market on these models. There is nothing limited about these at all.

BNIB Olives are now high 40s. These were like $95k at peak or thereabouts. Artificial hype between dealers, flippers and crypto traders caused that. Now I feel real bad for anyone holding the bag on these types of pieces.

One of my friends have lost in excess of $250k now buying up all the hot pieces as "investments". He's getting his ass done at the moment. The offers from gray dealers are offensive especially the ones that used to promote watches as investments.

I told him to not buy them and buy houses instead as that at least everyone needs and generates income and tax writeoffs. All these watches are rubbish hype non life essential items at the end of the day.

[rolex--]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

A new unworn Patek 5990 rose gold blue dial watch is still sitting at $278k. Yes this is still a lot of money, but these were over $750k at the peak. Crazy!!

EXACTLY. These are much much much rarer than any Olive DD40 or Daytona and they have taken a massive tumble. RM is also down massively. All the hype has completely gone from the watch game.

It reminds me of a classic pump and dump on the stock market. The ppl left holding the bag just got screwed bigtime.

These will be back under $200k soon too. No1 is paying even todays market for these pieces. $278k for the 5990 RG is still absolutely ludacris.

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by rolex--

Now I feel real bad for anyone holding the bag on these types of pieces.

Sorry, but I don't. Some lessons are expensive.

[epicurus]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

Sorry, but I don't. Some lessons are expensive.

I still cant believe how many people here didnt see this coming.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by rolex--

EXACTLY. These are much much much rarer than any Olive DD40 or Daytona and they have taken a massive tumble. RM is also down massively. All the hype has completely gone from the watch game.

It reminds me of a classic pump and dump on the stock market. The ppl left holding the bag just got screwed bigtime.

These will be back under $200k soon too. No1 is paying even todays market for these pieces. $278k for the 5990 RG is still absolutely ludacris.

Agree 100%

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by rolex--

EXACTLY. These are much much much rarer than any Olive DD40 or Daytona and they have taken a massive tumble. RM is also down massively. All the hype has completely gone from the watch game.

It reminds me of a classic pump and dump on the stock market. The ppl left holding the bag just got screwed bigtime.

These will be back under $200k soon too. No1 is paying even todays market for these pieces. $278k for the 5990 RG is still absolutely ludacris.

Retail is around 110k USD +/-
When more people realise watches are not investments, how many people actually will buy 1 and wear it on their wrist.
Watches neither generate returns nor will they become a necessity. It’s pure speculative. No watches in the current production is rare. This word is too loosely used.

[Mr Ben]

There can’t have been many (if any) recessions in history that have been better and more clearly signposted than this one. It’s almost certainly had more media/ social media coverage than any before it.

And it feels like there’s an enormous group of people who either think it won’t happen or, if it does, watch prices will be unaffected. And why? Because watch prices have been high for a while in one of the most unusual economic periods of all time. It beggars belief.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by epicurus

I still cant believe how many people here didnt see this coming.

There was a posse here who literally *ridiculed* myself and others, saying that this was ‘forever’ and it will never come back down. You can’t make this stuff up. I don’t know if they were all 18yo or just completely inexperienced with how trends are cyclical, but it was wild to see these people post with certainty that a MASS PRODUCED LUXURY GOOD would maintain above MSRP value.

COVID money made a lot of guys completely oblivious to common sense

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by rolex--

Dont worry. Just wait until next year. Prices for most Rolex will become under MSRP.

I personally feel ALL pieces will become MSRP or under. Except the Daytona which was always trading only slight above MSRP for many decades. Way way way way before any hype started. For the rest? Its back to MSRP or below.

And my original point is that when this happens, the wait lists will vanish. But not before.

So those claiming everything is fine (ie prices aren’t plummeting) because there are still waitlists are wrong, because waitlists will remain until watches are available below MSRP

[eijiboy]

Anyone noticed something lately, no full RG gmt rootbeer for sale on moda. Probably Flipper stop buying them from ad since they will lose a lot of money flipping it to the grey dealer.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by whiskyrolex

Moda update: Unworn Daytona panda sitting at 35k with no bites

Wow! back in july it was 35k. 4 months later now its at 29k.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

And my original point is that when this happens, the wait lists will vanish. But not before.

So those claiming everything is fine (ie prices aren’t plummeting) because there are still waitlists are wrong, because waitlists will remain until watches are available below MSRP

I suspect Rolex will do everything to keep waitlists (ie desirability) otherwise it is very bad for business. They may buy-back, decrease production, etc.

As long as get ride of wish lists and the wait is reasonable and defined (no more "it will come when it will come, maybe"). I am fine waiting a couple of months for a GMT or more for more exclusive model.

[Watchwoody]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Anyone noticed something lately, no full RG gmt rootbeer for sale on moda. Probably Flipper stop buying them from ad since they will lose a lot of money flipping it to the grey dealer.

I have noticed that too. Less gold pieces in general. Seems like I’ve been hearing more about AD’s offering gold pieces to my friends as well.