Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[psm11]

Originally Posted by bobernet

Watch for the bounce. Speculator interest is likely gone, at least for a time, but durable demand and wealth have both increased since the mid 20-teens. Demand is not going back to 2010 levels, even if the “investors” leave the market.

Daily price cuts on hot models and still no buyers. How do you figure a bounce any time soon?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by bobernet

Watch for the bounce. Speculator interest is likely gone, at least for a time, but durable demand and wealth have both increased since the mid 20-teens. Demand is not going back to 2010 levels, even if the “investors” leave the market.

You must have a short memory.

Times were good through 2020 and the secondary market was at an equilibrium. It is more likely than not that prices revert to historical means. You’re already seeing this trend.

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by psm11

Daily price cuts on hot models and still no buyers. How do you figure a bounce any time soon?

“Still no buyers” is false. Picking out a watch or two on MODA is: 1. A single channel, not the whole market; 2. More indicative of wholesale stocks being stagnant amongst grey market resellers than the real driver of the market (consumers); 3. Ignores the obvious evidence that stock is not sitting on dealers' shelves, and deals are still being made to consumers/collectors, both at full retail from ADs, and at above retail in the secondary market.

You all accuse grey dealers of being delusional with their published prices. You’re also delusional, pretending that watches aren’t being bought and sold every day at current market prices.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by bobernet

“Still no buyers” is false. Picking out a watch or two on MODA is: 1. A single channel, not the whole market; 2. More indicative of wholesale stocks being stagnant amongst grey market resellers than the real driver of the market (consumers); 3. Ignores the obvious evidence that stock is not sitting on dealers' shelves, and deals are still being made to consumers/collectors, both at full retail from ADs, and at above retail in the secondary market.

You all accuse grey dealers of being delusional with their published prices. You’re also delusional, pretending that watches aren’t being bought and sold every day at current market prices.

??? MODA is probably the most accurate indicator of what pieces are truly worth. If dealers are moving so much product then why are so many refusing to buy pieces?

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by psm11

??? MODA is probably the most accurate indicator of what pieces are truly worth. If dealers are moving so much product then why are so many refusing to buy pieces?

Because they have a lot of back stock, and price trajectory is not in their favor. It’s not rocket science.

The prices of used cars is heading down. That doesn’t mean that wholesale auctions are “the most accurate indicator of what [cars] are truly worth.” The vast majority of consumers don’t buy at auto auctions, just like the vast majority of watch buyers aren’t buying on MODA or other wholesale forums. You’re either incredibly ignorant of how supply chains work, or you’re being intentionally obtuse.

Go find 20 random Rolex owners in an airport lounge, and see how many have ever heard of MODA or bought anything there.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by bobernet

Because they have a lot of back stock, and price trajectory is not in their favor. It’s not rocket science.

The prices of used cars is heading down. That doesn’t mean that wholesale auctions are “the most accurate indicator of what [cars] are truly worth.” The vast majority of consumers don’t buy at auto auctions, just like the vast majority of watch buyers aren’t buying on MODA or other wholesale forums. You’re either incredibly ignorant of how supply chains work, or you’re being intentionally obtuse.

Go find 20 random Rolex owners in an airport lounge, and see how many have ever heard of MODA or bought anything there.

Your argument is flat out wrong. I have personal experience in the used car space.. and in fact it is a good analogy.

Both used car and watch dealers operate on margin. Car auctions (for the former) and dealer chats/MODA (for the latter) IS the market. Why? Because it is the most liquid sub-market for each product, and because dealers (in a competitive market environment at equilibrium) strictly price on margin.

Again…when are we going to see this bogus “bounce” you speak of? When China reopens? LOL

[psm11]

Originally Posted by bobernet

Because they have a lot of back stock, and price trajectory is not in their favor. It’s not rocket science.

The prices of used cars is heading down. That doesn’t mean that wholesale auctions are “the most accurate indicator of what [cars] are truly worth.” The vast majority of consumers don’t buy at auto auctions, just like the vast majority of watch buyers aren’t buying on MODA or other wholesale forums. You’re either incredibly ignorant of how supply chains work, or you’re being intentionally obtuse.

Go find 20 random Rolex owners in an airport lounge, and see how many have ever heard of MODA or bought anything there.

Plenty of Rolex owners also have no idea what the “grey market is” or are able to make sense that they can no longer walk in and buy a Rolex from an AD. I saw it in real life this weekend. Had in laws in town (who are very wealthy and own multiple Rolexes). Took them around rodeo and the century city mall to shop. Stopped at multiple Rolex locations and they couldn’t understand why the store was empty and why they couldn’t buy a watch despite having the money in hand. I then explained how the secondary market worked and they couldn’t wrap their head around having to pay 2-3x MSRP for a used mass produced watch. Not to mention the arrogant and rude treatment by the SAs. They were incredibly happy to head down the street to IWC and Panerai where they bought pieces. Treatment by those SAs was exceptional and blew Rolex out of the water.

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by psm11

Plenty of Rolex owners also have no idea what the “grey market is” or are able to make sense that they can no longer walk in and buy a Rolex from an AD. I saw it in real life this weekend. Had in laws in town (who are very wealthy and own multiple Rolexes). Took them around rodeo and the century city mall to shop. Stopped at multiple Rolex locations and they couldn’t understand why the store was empty and why they couldn’t buy a watch despite having the money in hand. I then explained how the secondary market worked and they couldn’t wrap their head around having to pay 2-3x MSRP for a used mass produced watch. Not to mention the arrogant and rude treatment by the SAs. They were incredibly happy to head down the street to IWC and Panerai where they bought pieces. Treatment by those SAs was exceptional and blew Rolex out of the water.

Take them to a Porsche dealer to buy a new GT3, or. Ferrari dealer to buy a new car and watch them continue to be mystified. Did you stop in at Hermes to buy a new Kelly or Birkin? How about LV to buy a new bag?

You are acting as if Rolex is some crazy anomaly instead of reflecting a luxury market where demand exceeds supply at current retail. Basic economics and market dynamics at play here. Will demand go from 300% of supply to 150% in the short term? Probably. Will it go to 80% or 50% with huge retail discounting in the short term? I doubt it. Supply is fairly stagnant, and demand has increased dramatically. Some of that increase was speculators. Some of that increase is permanent or long term, at the least.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by bobernet

Take them to a Porsche dealer to buy a new GT3, or. Ferrari dealer to buy a new car and watch them continue to be mystified. Did you stop in at Hermes to buy a new Kelly or Birkin? How about LV to buy a new bag?

You are acting as if Rolex is some crazy anomaly instead of reflecting a luxury market where demand exceeds supply at current retail. Basic economics and market dynamics at play here. Will demand go from 300% of supply to 150% in the short term? Probably. Will it go to 80% or 50% with huge retail discounting in the short term? I doubt it. Supply is fairly stagnant, and demand has increased dramatically. Some of that increase was speculators. Some of that increase is permanent or long term, at the least.

You and I know how these markets work but do the vast majority of wealthy Rolex buyers who don’t live and breathe watches? All they see is an empty case and are told they have to spend 3x the retail price if they want a watch. It’s a huge turnoff.

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by psm11

You and I know how these markets work but do the vast majority of wealthy Rolex buyers who don’t live and breathe watches? All they see is an empty case and are told they have to spend 3x the retail price if they want a watch. It’s a huge turnoff.

I agree. And yet, AD waitlists are still long, and grey dealers are selling watches above retail every single day. None of them are going out of business from all these turned off buyers.

The current price crash has a lot more to do with global recession and consumer sentiment, along with crypto and stock market declines. None of those factors are permanent, and the emotion around them is likely more negative than the coming reality in many cases. Hence, my position on a bottom and bounce back in the near-mid term. Not a bounce back to Jan/Feb crazy, but a rebound none the less.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Whatever we say, the raison-d'etre of all brands is to have more demand than offer. Some have almost always been good at it (Rolex), for some it is new (AP) and for some it is falling apart (mainly owned by none watch pure-players groups).

However, Rolex will do everything to have a more healthy demand/offer ratio than currently because it is not healthy for the long term (customer experience, etc).

Lots of excessive demand due to the covid mesures (free money, excess free time, etc) is disappearing and will not come back **ever**.

PS: Rolex cannot be compared to Porsche. Mercedes-Benz, BMW or Audi would be more accurate.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by bobernet

Because they have a lot of back stock, and price trajectory is not in their favor. It’s not rocket science.

The prices of used cars is heading down. That doesn’t mean that wholesale auctions are “the most accurate indicator of what [cars] are truly worth.” The vast majority of consumers don’t buy at auto auctions, just like the vast majority of watch buyers aren’t buying on MODA or other wholesale forums. You’re either incredibly ignorant of how supply chains work, or you’re being intentionally obtuse...

Wow, this is unnecessarily rude. There is no need to stoop to personal insults when you disagree with someone on this forum.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by bobernet

I agree. And yet, AD waitlists are still long, and grey dealers are selling watches above retail every single day. None of them are going out of business from all these turned off buyers.

The current price crash has a lot more to do with global recession and consumer sentiment, along with crypto and stock market declines. None of those factors are permanent, and the emotion around them is likely more negative than the coming reality in many cases. Hence, my position on a bottom and bounce back in the near-mid term. Not a bounce back to Jan/Feb crazy, but a rebound none the less.

Appreciate your input. We will see. I am hopeful things will continue downward mainly because I am a collector and just want to be able to buy the pieces I am interested in at a decent price. Many occasions have come and gone and a few coming up that I wanted to/would like to mark with particular pieces. That’s what’s important to me. Not the resale value or a d**k measuring contest at the AD to see who has the most money to spend.

The market the last couple of years has turned this hobby into such a toxic endeavor. Sometimes I think we all need to take a step back and realize we all likely want the same thing.

[GGGMT]

Hey everyone, checking in on how prices are doing today. I’m worried about my time piece asset class.


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[*M5]

https://youtu.be/AqHvmEn_LJk


Interesting input, so who knows where prices will be headed.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by *M5

https://youtu.be/AqHvmEn_LJk


Interesting input, so who knows where prices will be headed.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Never heard of this dude. Maybe that’s because I’m a boomer whose only been collecting for 25 years.


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[malice146]

Originally Posted by *M5

https://youtu.be/AqHvmEn_LJk


Interesting input, so who knows where prices will be headed.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

So are prices driven by demand or by Rolex CPO?


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[*M5]

Well what do you guys make of the CPO pricing?

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[psm11]

Originally Posted by *M5

Well what do you guys make of the CPO pricing?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

A bid to prey on saps who do not know of other (much less expensive) channels to get a Rolex through.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Never heard of this dude. Maybe that’s because I’m a boomer whose only been collecting for 25 years.

You miss nothing.

He thinks that the market prices will increase thanks to CPO.

He must not be a car guy, because CPO/warranties by constructors do not work to keep an unjustified crazy delta vs the secondary market outside the official network.

Brands can fake the market temporarily through gimmicks (intervention during auctions, etc). But in the end the buyers are the price setter. Otherwise LVMH would not have issues with its watch brands.

One effective way to control prices is through destruction (which is done by many brands), but for Rolex it is getting more difficult every year because of the volume.

[aa909]

“Crypto bros offloading luxury cars in the face of FTX crash”

https://nypost.com/2022/11/28/crypto...mid-ftx-crash/

The hyper demand bubble for luxury items has burst and demand is returning to trend, IMO prices will continue to slide back to trend across the board in 2023.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by bobernet

I agree. And yet, AD waitlists are still long, and grey dealers are selling watches above retail every single day. None of them are going out of business from all these turned off buyers.

The current price crash has a lot more to do with global recession and consumer sentiment, along with crypto and stock market declines. None of those factors are permanent, and the emotion around them is likely more negative than the coming reality in many cases. Hence, my position on a bottom and bounce back in the near-mid term. Not a bounce back to Jan/Feb crazy, but a rebound none the less.

The same 4-5 users bounce from price thread to price thread across Rolex, patek, AP...you name it saying the same thing about Moda. Then when someone such as yourself, me, or anyone starts touting basic Econ theory....they disagree. Don't waste your breath.

But, I agree the same. Though I have said inflation and the move to higher rates has caused the global recession and crap consumer sentiment you mentioned. And for me, I predict once inflation stops we'll see a huge bounce in every asset class after interest rates stop going up. I just gave up arguing with them until then. I just hope they all buy watches now because it won't last.

I went into a few local Rolex dealers today to see if they had anything available just as a gauge. Still they laugh when I ask the question.....Supply is still dead even with a brand producing 1 million watches. God help us for AP and patek who produce barely anything in comparison.

[Mercutio]

Originally Posted by 911AP

The same 4-5 users bounce from price thread to price thread across Rolex, patek, AP...you name it saying the same thing about Moda. Then when someone such as yourself, me, or anyone starts touting basic Econ theory....they disagree. Don't waste your breath.

And, as it appears, you follow them suit, and chime in with the same tune in reverse; as you referenced Econ 101 - I wholeheartedly recommend GMO‘s view on the everything bubble, or The Lords of Easy Money as recently featured in the Journal.

[Crown & Shield]

Originally Posted by psm11

Plenty of Rolex owners also have no idea what the “grey market is” or are able to make sense that they can no longer walk in and buy a Rolex from an AD. I saw it in real life this weekend. Had in laws in town (who are very wealthy and own multiple Rolexes). Took them around rodeo and the century city mall to shop. Stopped at multiple Rolex locations and they couldn’t understand why the store was empty and why they couldn’t buy a watch despite having the money in hand. I then explained how the secondary market worked and they couldn’t wrap their head around having to pay 2-3x MSRP for a used mass produced watch. Not to mention the arrogant and rude treatment by the SAs. They were incredibly happy to head down the street to IWC and Panerai where they bought pieces. Treatment by those SAs was exceptional and blew Rolex out of the water.

Since when IWC and Panerai are an alternative to Rolex?
To me, the only alternative would be some Patek, or GS for Spring Drive, but given the choice I’d still prefer Rolex.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by 911AP

The same 4-5 users bounce from price thread to price thread across Rolex, patek, AP...you name it saying the same thing about Moda. Then when someone such as yourself, me, or anyone starts touting basic Econ theory....they disagree. Don't waste your breath.

But, I agree the same. Though I have said inflation and the move to higher rates has caused the global recession and crap consumer sentiment you mentioned. And for me, I predict once inflation stops we'll see a huge bounce in every asset class after interest rates stop going up. I just gave up arguing with them until then. I just hope they all buy watches now because it won't last.

I went into a few local Rolex dealers today to see if they had anything available just as a gauge. Still they laugh when I ask the question.....Supply is still dead even with a brand producing 1 million watches. God help us for AP and patek who produce barely anything in comparison.

Pot calling kettle black much? I thought you were done with pricing threads... Apparently not so much

[epicurus]

Originally Posted by Crown & Shield

Since when IWC and Panerai are an alternative to Rolex?
To me, the only alternative would be some Patek, or GS for Spring Drive, but given the choice I’d still prefer Rolex.

Theres plenty of high horology brands out there with much more interesting features and movements. To each there own. As far as Im concerned, the day I had to play games for watches produced in the millions was the last day I stepped into a Rolex AD and I happily looked elsewhere. I actually thank Rolex for introducing me to so many other amazing watches.

[Vince_76]

15400 full set in great condition - 32.4K sitting

[1665fan]

Patek and AP still dropping ss rolex is done…..I’m looking for a 17k Pepsi and no luck….most are back up to 18

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Patek and AP still dropping ss rolex is done…..I’m looking for a 17k Pepsi and no luck….most are back up to 18

They are not “back up”. They are in the mid 17s which is a low.

BNIB unsized on oyster - 17.5k

Full set on jubilee, mint - 17.5k

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Wow, this is unnecessarily rude. There is no need to stoop to personal insults when you disagree with someone on this forum.

Fair call out. I wasn’t intending to be personally insulting. My comments were directed at the argument, not the person. I plead jet lag. :-(

[mention]psm11 [/mention] I apologize for any offense I caused. Thanks for being the bigger person, and continuing the discussion despite my poor choice of words.

Cheers