Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[yachty 1]

Originally Posted by EEpro

$36,700 BNIB in coffin full set posted yesterday. Still there.

Definitely on my radar..

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Don’t agree. Any manufacturer can adjust production to respond to demand changes if they wish. Easy to cut, harder to increase (equipment, people).

I'm not sure I agree when every Tudor AD I visit is busting at the seams with the BB58 blue model. No kidding I recently counted nine, yes nine, of this same model (okay, different straps/bracelet) in the displays.

Guess they didn't get the memo in the production department.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

bnib cookie monster now at 36700. way below msrp!

AD discounts to follow. Although I'm sure some won't believe it.

[Alvar*]

I am lusting after the 41 mm lv sub. However, doesnt make sense to buy one as it seems that prices on that particular model are dropping constantly. My country second hand dealers also seem to be in some kind of a denial phase. One dealer asks 23900 € for a full set while you can find full set box and papers easily 16-17000 € on chrono24 alone. This doesnt make any sense to me. Why would I pay 8000 € extra for this dealer?

Anyway my plan is to hold breath for a while to see how it goes.

[BrunoMalik]

Originally Posted by BogdanS

Daytona Platinum 116506 Brand New. Complete. Unsized. Unworn. Fresh 12/2022 - $100,000+label

Daytona 116508 Cosmograph Daytona 18k Yellow Gold Oyster Bracelet 40mm Green Dial "John Mayer" Pre-owned Full Links Retail Ready - Asking $63,000 OBO

Daytona Green Dial John Mayer 116508 Watch and card only retail ready full links - $64,750 and label.

Brand new Rolex Daytona 116500LN, Watch comes brand new, unsized , complete set, dated this month - 25.9 plus label

126710BLRO Pepsi Jub New dec/2022 complete set - 19.1k + label

126710bInr Batgirl Jubilee Brand new complete set dec/2022 - 16.9k+ label

326934 Blue SkyDweller Jub Brand New, 11/2022 Green Tag, No box - $23.3k + label

Sky Dweller Blue Dial Ref. 326934 Dated May 2022 Jubilee Band
Condition: Super Minty Full Set - 22.4k+shipping

126710BLRO Pepsi Jub Preowned mint condition 2022 complete set - 18.5k + label

All brand new, fresh date, complete set:
1. Starbucks 30/11/22: 15900$+label
2. Batgirl 11/12/22: 17200S+label
3. Bluesy 17/12/22: 17200$+label

Bnib Rolex submariner 41mm no date 124060 2022 new complete (box card wallet manual green tag white tag) - 11,950 shipped within USA

126610LV Submariner Excellent condition/ like new Complete set dated July 2022 - 15500 + shipping

Royal Oak Blue Dial 15500st Complete set dated 2021 - 42500 + shipping

GMT Master II Rootbeer 126715CHNR Watch and card dated Nov 2022. unworn with handling marks - 40000 + label

126610LV "Kermit" BRAND NEW/UNWORN UNSIZED FRESH DATED TODAY FUll Complete Set Shipped from Brasil - 15750 plus shipping

November 2022 dated 122660 Sea-Dweller 43 BIB unsized. Full box set minus bezel protector - $13475 + label


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Seems like Rolex steel sports models have bottomed already. The Pepsis dont seem to go below 18-19k and the Cermit does not go below 15k. Also Daytonas cant break that 25k level either.

I would still not pay above retail as a matter of principle, but for those who do, this does not seem like a bad time to buy your grail.

On the other hand, PM Rolex and APs are moving lower and lower.


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[EEpro]

Even after this "crash" the Rolex watches I bought at retail have done better than my stocks. Can't complain. I think SS Rolex purchased at MSRP remains an excellent wearable store of value.

[Conway]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Even after this "crash" the Rolex watches I bought at retail have done better than my stocks. Can't complain. I think SS Rolex purchased at MSRP remains an excellent wearable store of value.

I think if you try and sell one you won't get offered MSRP from any dealer and you'll have to run the gauntlet of private buyers and all the risk that entails.

You might still be right and they're better than your stocks, but that just means your stocks are doing really badly.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Conway

I think if you try and sell one you won't get offered MSRP from any dealer and you'll have to run the gauntlet of private buyers and all the risk that entails.

You might still be right and they're better than your stocks, but that just means your stocks are doing really badly.

Nonsense. Was offered $16,500 for my Pepsi 2 weeks ago by a TS here on TRF. That is a 70% return.

Pepsi is moving on MODA at $17.9k.

Edit: i just double checked texts and it was $16,000. 65% return.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Seems like Rolex steel sports models have bottomed already. The Pepsis dont seem to go below 18-19k and the Cermit does not go below 15k. Also Daytonas cant break that 25k level either.

I would still not pay above retail as a matter of principle, but for those who do, this does not seem like a bad time to buy your grail.

On the other hand, PM Rolex and APs are moving lower and lower.


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Next wave of price correction is coming soon..

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Next wave of price correction is coming soon..

At some dealers it is happening already. Following EWC it feels like they are having a pre xmas sale based on how aggressively they have dropped their prices step by step in the past weeks.

Not saying there won't be more come January.

[EEpro]

It could easily come down 20-30% from here I have no doubt.

Mid 2023 should be the armpit of the recession from the "experts" that probably helped engineer the situation.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by ts3

At some dealers it is happening already. Following EWC it feels like they are having a pre xmas sale based on how aggressively they have dropped their prices step by step in the past weeks.

Not saying there won't be more come January.

There will be even lesser sales post Christmas and New Year. Don’t see any price increase or stability even now just before Christmas

[messikens]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

There will be even lesser sales post Christmas and New Year. Don’t see any price increase or stability even now just before Christmas

Fully agree... While I don't have access to Moda (I rely on Vince76 for this) some of the AP watches I had saved on C24 have accelerated their price alerts downward in the last 6 weeks with no end in sight. And this is before the supposed Xmas bump. Tells me market is pretty frozen

[ExplorerI]

Each leg down of the stock market has led to watch prices going down. November/ early December brought a nice stock recovery and watches stabilized. We seem to be heading back south so that coupled with the end of the Christmas season should bring lower watch prices. There has even been some reasonably priced 90s subs and dwellers sitting for a while. Very clean 16610 with service papers sat for hours at 6950 last night.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

There will be even lesser sales post Christmas and New Year. Don’t see any price increase or stability even now just before Christmas

Sure.

Originally Posted by EEpro

It could easily come down 20-30% from here I have no doubt.

That's what I expect come January / Q1 for some of the stuff still up there such as the 15202 and many Nautilus.

[Mathematoxic]

Almost if not all Two-tone models below msrp. Most Steel datejust below msrp. Two tone datejust way below msrp. Most day-dates below msrp. Most SS sports models at or slightly above msrp(Only reason for saying this is because these are the last of the very last carrots ADs have. So they will do all they can to tell you there is no stock hahaha). PM Subs, GMTs, Yacht masters below msrp. Most PM Daytona at or below msrp. Steel Daytona(ceramic) slightly above msrp.
I do not want to make a prediction for Cellini.

My prediction from the recession thread. I do own a TT sub 116613LN, 126331 and 116518LN Paul Newman dial.
Hoping to add a 116508 Paul Newman dial for my next watch.
Rooting for sanity in watch prices.

[Etschell]

hype ones keep dropping.

18k for a black skyd this AM.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Etschell

hype ones keep dropping.

18k for a black skyd this AM.

Underrated configuration on jubilee. It's a beauty.

[Mifune]

I dont see ANY of those listing on the MODA group... are we talking about the MODA wholesale group?

[Mifune]

Originally Posted by Etschell

hype ones keep dropping.

18k for a black skyd this AM.

black face is my favorite version...

[eijiboy]

BNIB RG dd olive dial at 49800 and still not selling.
BNIB Gmt pepsi on oyster at 17600 not selling
BNIB cermit 15700 not selling.
BNIB pepsi jubilee 19k not selling.
Theres and auction for 2 14060. one is 14060m both are 2 liner. its tempting. basically 2 watch in one auction. Its my favorite 5 digit.

[Mathematoxic]

116508 meteorite dial Oct 2022 brand new set auctioned for $84.5k
These were much higher before

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

BNIB RG dd olive dial at 49800 and still not selling.
BNIB Gmt pepsi on oyster at 17600 not selling
BNIB cermit 15700 not selling.
BNIB pepsi jubilee 19k not selling.
Theres and auction for 2 14060. one is 14060m both are 2 liner. its tempting. basically 2 watch in one auction. Its my favorite 5 digit.

I think this means that the word is out to the average interested watch buyer and they are willing to wait for the AD call, sit this out, or take a pass rather than pay a chunk of $ over MSRP.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

116508 meteorite dial Oct 2022 brand new set auctioned for $84.5k
These were much higher before

Saw that one. I got a wire offer for $150,000 from TS here and turned it down last year.

I think this auction guy could have done much better. Those have flown off MODA typically when listed well over $100k. They are well received and get tons of attention and go sold quickly considering the price.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Mifune

black face is my favorite version...

the thing is these models are dangerously close to retail plus tax. secondary sellers simply arent even paying that anymore so the thought of buying one to establish a relationship is drying up for buyers. if you buy a watch for 17k and the 2ndary will buy for 16k a lot wont do it.

a cermit buy price is no more than 14k. a 124060 buy price is maybe 10k. that is basically retail plus tax.

things are dropping quick and it is a snowball. i fully believe most rolex will be under MSRP plus tax soon. especially with the price raise.

if i am a secondary seller with a lot of inventory i am marking it down on my tax return and taking the loss this year using LCM analysis.

a full set cermit sold here for $15,200.
air king (126900) for $8,100 sold here.

i can go on and on.

[Conway]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Nonsense. Was offered $16,500 for my Pepsi 2 weeks ago by a TS here on TRF. That is a 70% return.

Pepsi is moving on MODA at $17.9k.

Edit: i just double checked texts and it was $16,000. 65% return.

Maybe he had a customer waiting, who knows, there are about 1,000 on C24 that don't seem to be selling at $17-20k.

C24 which is notoriously optimistic is only claiming 40% premiums on Subs, I can't get that much at any dealers I know.

[Rolexatlast]

Demand will certainly not increase in January, so values only going one way throughout 2023.

Be interesting to see how long the established greys hold out, before their nerve goes and they try to offload their stock. Will they be able to hold out all through 2023?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Etschell

the thing is these models are dangerously close to retail plus tax. secondary sellers simply arent even paying that anymore so the thought of buying one to establish a relationship is drying up for buyers. if you buy a watch for 17k and the 2ndary will buy for 16k a lot wont do it.

a cermit buy price is no more than 14k. a 124060 buy price is maybe 10k. that is basically retail plus tax.

things are dropping quick and it is a snowball. i fully believe most rolex will be under MSRP plus tax soon. especially with the price raise.

if i am a secondary seller with a lot of inventory i am marking it down on my tax return and taking the loss this year using LCM analysis.

a full set cermit sold here for $15,200.
air king (126900) for $8,100 sold here.

i can go on and on.

I always assumed the "demand" spike was due to being able to sell whether now or later at even a modest profit. With offer prices from greys around or between MSRP/MSRP+Tax it will surely take a bite out of this fake demand. Tough to say if that was 20% or 70% of AD demand though.

My SA still gets guys asking for a Daytona, AP or Nautilus still as if their goal isn't completely transparent.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Demand will certainly not increase in January, so values only going one way throughout 2023.

Be interesting to see how long the established greys hold out, before their nerve goes and they try to offload their stock. Will they be able to hold out all through 2023?

Yet a lot of people here told us that it will rise due to holiday season. nothing has change but downwards

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Yet a lot of people here told us that it will rise due to holiday season. nothing has change but downwards

Exactly. The “bulls” keep getting proven wrong and they come up with another excuse. Very much looking forward to these charlatans getting burned, and the hobby returning back to normal.