A few candid home truths (or not) from some greys in Hong Kong and the market today

[Monte Cristo]

Great write up

[georgekart]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Yes.
3.4 million dollar millionaires in China .(2nd in the world) USA 17.3 million (Rich country hey !!! )

I really never see much Chinese/Asian tourists in my country.Guess where I saw last ? Rolex AD/ PP boutique/Panerai boutique/Cartier boutique .. They shop all over the world.Here is a happy hunting ground because they claim 15% back at the airport.All tourists do .ADs here do not sell sports models to tourists anymore,at all.

Prices coming down ? Any economic down turn will have very little effect on pricing.There are MANY buyers out there keeping demand sky high,under any circumstances.

Those with collections,be happy .It's value keeps on rising !...and sometimes you are lucky and get a nice one at the AD.

Like I have said before,ss sporties are commodities.

I get that part, I just don't get putting "this is the new hot thing" over what I like/don't like. paying that amount of money for BLNR, when both BLRO and Oyster BLNR look better? I wouldn't. I'd rather get BLRO. I guess it matters that much to them.

[dr.ns23]

Super interesting, thanks for sharing

[nuwildcat928]

Always look forward to your threads! Thanks.

[Pw92676]

Very insightful. Thanks for sharing.

[DoDe]

Thank you for sharing.

[trfChris]

Great post, thanks for sharing! Very interesting insights.

[drmizzou]

Thanks for sharing! Really liking your posts lately my friend!

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by SlideRacker

Great write up. In fact, the best ever on TRF IMO. Looking forward to many more IAP as you seem to be in the thick of it.

Think his post w/r/t buying the BLRO in China was more engaging.

This isn’t saying the post in this thread is bad.

[Explorer2polar]

A very astute expose of the Grey market, so what can we assume from it ?

Greys take huge risks in speculating the market?

AD's are in on the profiteering

AD staffers are posing as "Phantom buyers"

Demand outstrips demand by a factor of x 10

Rolex buyers are Not wearers of the watches, they are investments

The current situation won't change short term ( 1 - 3 years )

OP ..............Good work an enjoyable read.

[MinMay]

thank you! Finally, I good read from the forum.

[Boaters]

Interesting read

[huba01]

Great read, love your stories, such a pleasure to read

[mr_gray]

a great read. i'm in sydney and logged on to see if anyone has called top of the market yet (things feel very iffy here post election). sounds like demand is still strong and the market over there is bubbling away. presumably chinese demand will be impacted by negative economic news or will rolex become like gold in that it is sought out as a way to safely hold value?

none of it bodes well for me getting a blro at retail.

[Bobbyjoon11]

Thanks for writing about your experiences! :)

[Scapegoat]

Thanks for your write up

[oldman2005]

Nice write-up...

And wow! 116500LN is selling for US$30,000!

[Skylife]

Great articles! Thanks for the time writing this up.

[jonnyz1245]

Nice write up and thanks for sharing your insights. Much of what we have expected. Curious as to how many ADs are doing this in other countries? I suspect some are sadly.

Can we get summer of 2017 back and everything that became before it? Anyone remember the days of walking into an AD with cases full of pretty much everything?

[HK852GMT]

A very good article.

Without being contrarian, I think the greys have f***ed up in HK. As I have posted elsewhere on TRF, the same watch in the same shop has gone from HK$143k to HK$156 in a month. It hasn't sold.

There is a bizarre mentality at work in HK, where vendors/landlords decide on a price that they want and then will not budge on that price. At all. If you walk around any street in HK, there are vacant units. Some have been vacant for years. The landlords will not lease them out for less than the price that they want. So instead of taking less but getting more, they prefer to save face by constantly inflating the value of their commodity but gaining no income.

The greys in HK are almost certainly in the same position. They have stuck their backhander to the ADs for stock and now are going to sit on and double down on an overpriced watch that the market is not buying. The mainlanders aren't buying as much luxury stuff as they were even three years ago, the locals definitely aren't, and western tourists have been largely priced out of the market. Walking past empty ADs with no stock except diamond encrusted PMs is saddening really.

[ttman333]

Thanks for sharing your insight from HK.

Safe travels.

[boktan]

TQ for taking the time to research and write this article.

[SkyJuice]

Originally Posted by InitialAndPitch

And just for fun, the Platinum Daytona 116506 was available for $HK562,000 ($US71,600). That’s over a hundred grand in Australian pesos.

I heard pesos is the new trend for AUD.

[Switch]

Originally Posted by georgekart

I get that part, I just don't get putting "this is the new hot thing" over what I like/don't like. paying that amount of money for BLNR, when both BLRO and Oyster BLNR look better? I wouldn't. I'd rather get BLRO. I guess it matters that much to them.

Easy to recycle the watch, especially when the price is constantly increasing and giving you negotiating space to sell it off while breaking even or making a small profit. Although it would seem that there is a stronger preference for the oyster blnr, I would hazard a guess that this is only applicable to people in the know, buyers who have never seen the old oyster wouldn't have a base model to compare to make that judgement.

Originally Posted by EndlessEight

Think his post w/r/t buying the BLRO in China was more engaging.

This isn’t saying the post in this thread is bad.

Link where ?

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by HK852GMT

A very good article.

The greys in HK are almost certainly in the same position. They have stuck their backhander to the ADs for stock and now are going to sit on and double down on an overpriced watch that the market is not buying. The mainlanders aren't buying as much luxury stuff as they were even three years ago, the locals definitely aren't, and western tourists have been largely priced out of the market. Walking past empty ADs with no stock except diamond encrusted PMs is saddening really.

In that case,the pricing of the "ss sportie grails" will drop slightly with time ,worldwide.

All Rolex needs to do is raise the MRSP on ss sportie hotties substantially and the balance will be restored.

Empty ADs and filled to the brim Grey's next door is an unhealthy situation .

[Batmannr1]

Really like your write-ups OP. Please keep them coming.
"Charity sales" naming by ADs sounds to me denigrating for the front door customers, who also buy the "cold" timepieces and jewellery.

[Number3]

Excellent post and a fascinating read OP. Just the term ‘charity sales’ alone gives a real insight as to how the ADs view the current market madness.

Looking forward to the next instalment.

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by Switch

Link where ?

This isn’t it but another great post.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...highlight=BLRO

@initialandpitch - I can’t seem to find your post about acquiring your BLRO, can you link it please?

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Batmannr1

Really like your write-ups OP. Please keep them coming.
"Charity sales" naming by ADs sounds to me denigrating for the front door customers, who also buy the "cold" timepieces and jewellery.

Front door customers seems to be allowed diamond encrusted models only ... very unhealthy situation .
Hong Kong used to be one of the best places to buy Rolex .

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by InitialAndPitch

(2) FOR THE FIRST TIME (FOR ME), ONE OF THE GREYS DESCRIBED THE GAMES THEY HAVE TO PLAY WITH AD’s TO GET DESIRABLE STAINLESS MODELS.

As the prices keep sky-rocketing, one of the guys said that most AD’s were getting angrier that they were pushed and shoved to sell at MRSP when the grey across the road was cashing in. As a result, the moment new stainless models arrived, the phone calls offering new stock out the back door started but price negotiations between AD and greys were getting much tougher. AD’s were frustrated and wanted larger and larger percentages of the grey selling price. The AD’s felt “cheated” that they were forced to sell at MRSP but knew they needed to retain a portion of their SS allocation for VIP’s. These sales were described (according to one grey) as “charity sales” by one cranky AD who supplies them.

One grey, pointed out a Rolex AD across the road and down a bit and said they got about 10 to 15% of their SS stock from that store not 50 metres away.

Intrigued why a grey would be telling you this.

Looks more like a price justification statement to me.